Download or read book Modelling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Snowpack in the St Mary River Watershed Montana written by Ryan J. MacDonald and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change poses significant threats to mountain ecosystems in North America (Barnett et al., 2005) and will subsequently impact water supply for human and ecosystem use. To assess these threats, we must have an understanding of the local variability in hydrometeorological conditions over the mountains. This thesis describes the continued development and application of a fine scale spatial hydrometeorological model, GENESYS (GENerate Earth SYstems Science input). The GENESYS model successfully simulated daily snowpack values for a 10 year trial period and annual runoff volumes for a thirty year period. Based on the results of these simulations the model was applied to estimate potential changes in snowpack over the St. Mary River watershed, Montana. GCM derived future climate scenarios were applied, representing a range of emissions controls and applied to perturb the 1961-90 climate record using the "delta" downscaling technique. The effects of these changes in climate were assessed for thirty year time slices centered on 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. The GENESYS simulations of future climate showed that mountain snowpack was highly vulnerable to changes in temperature and to a lesser degree precipitation. A seasonal shift to an earlier onset of spring melt and an increase in the ratio of rain to snow occurred under all climate change scenarios. Results of mean and maximum snowpack were more variable and appeared to be highly dependent on scenario selection. The results demonstrated that although annual volume of available water from snowpack may increase, the seasonal distribution of available water may be significantly altered.

Download or read book Impact of Global Changes on Mountains written by Velma I. Grover and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2014-12-19 with total page 527 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mountain regions encompass nearly 24 percent of the total land surface of the earth and are home to approximately 12 percent of the world's population. Their ecosystems play a critical role in sustaining human life both in the highlands and the lowlands. During recent years, resource use in high mountain areas has changed mainly in response to the

Download or read book The New Normal written by University of Regina. Canadian Plains Research Center and published by University of Regina Press. This book was released on 2010 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Canadian Prairies in a Changing Climate is a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of climate change in the prairie provinces, the impacts on natural resources, communities, human health and sectors of the economy, and the adaptation options that are available for alleviating adverse impacts and taking advantage of new opportunities provided by a warmer climate.

Download or read book Modeling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Variability in the North Fork of Elk Creek Experimental Watershed West Central Montana written by Katie Marie Jorgensen and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study hypothesizes the effects of global climate change on the hydrologic regime of West-Central Montana, focusing on the North Fork of Elk Creek, a 6.6 km2 (2.6 mi.2) Experimental Watershed. This is important to understand in snowmelt-dominated watersheds, as it is already well documented by current trends and future climate projections that the natural hydrologic regime is experiencing alterations. There have been shifts in the 20th century of the timing of snowmelt trending towards an earlier spring peak flows and declines in the overall snow water equivalent (Regonda et al., 2005; Mote et al., 2005; Hamlet et al., 2005). The goals for this study are to analyze for significant changes in the timing of important hydrologic events, and determine how discharge throughout the year will be altered in the Elk Creek Experimental Watershed (ECEW). To address these issues, a semi-spatial hydrologic model is employed, and run using current meteorological data and under downscaled climate-change scenarios conditions, under three relevant time periods. Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) is deterministic and conceptual and is used to generate streamflow in snowmelt dominated basins by the degree-day method (Martinec, 1985). Data is gathered from two SNOTEL sites located within the watershed and streamflow collected directly on the North Fork of Elk Creek. The specific metrics that will be statistically analyzed are mean summer and winter flows, and trends in peak flow and center of mass date timing (Wenger et al., 2009; Regonda et al., 2005). These results can be useful for management purposes because changes in the way water is released from the mountains affects water storage, flooding, and overall watershed resilience such that current practices may need to be accordingly adjusted.

Download or read book Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Major Watersheds of Western North America written by Daniel Barandiaran and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Mountain Snow Hydrology Montana Alberta written by Robert Larson and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences written by and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 674 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Watershed Scale Response to Climate Change South Fork Flathead River Basin Montana written by Katherine J. Chase and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 6 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Climate Change Impacts on Snowpack Heterogeneity written by Adrienne M. Marshall and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Throughout the western United States, seasonal snowpack is critical for water resources timing and availability and ecosystem function. Warming temperatures associated with climate change reduce snow accumulation and advance melt timing, with serious consequences for snow-dependent social and ecological systems. While many impacts of climate change on snowpack are well established, this dissertation investigates several elements of changing snowpack that have not been previously assessed. In particular, each chapter contributes to an improved understanding of the changing heterogeneity of snow under climate change. The first chapter tests the sensitivity of snow drifting to altered climate, using a physically-based hydrologic model and thirty years of hydroclimatological data at a site where aspen stands are subsidized by a wind-driven snow drift. We find a warming-induced reduction in snow drifting, increase in ecohydrologic homogeneity across the landscape, and altered interannual variability of hydrologic metrics. The second chapter assesses changes in interannual variability of snowpack magnitude and timing across the western United States, using downscaled global climate model data as forcing to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. We find that changes in interannual variability are spatially heterogeneous across the western U.S., but that interannual variability of annual maximum snow water equivalent (SWE[max]) decreases in regions transitioning from snow- to rain-dominated precipitation regimes. Changes in the date of SWE[max] are less spatially coherent, but agreement between general circulation models (GCMs) is most reliably found at relatively warm sites where the date of SWE[max] variability increases. The third chapter assesses another element of snow heterogeneity by testing the effect of snowfall intensity on winter ablation. Using a statistical modeling approach with observational snow data, we find that higher snowfall intensity is associated with reduced winter ablation; projected changes in snowfall intensity will likely exacerbate warming-induced increases in winter ablation in the maritime mountains of the western U.S. and mitigate it in the cooler continental regions. Finally, a fourth interdisciplinary, collaborative chapter synthesizes research on climate change in the mountainous headwaters of the Columbia River Basin. Findings show that research in this basin is focused on climate change impacts, rather than adaptation or mitigation, that social and biophysical sciences are not well integrated, and that research priorities differ across an international boundary. Cumulatively, this set of studies advances knowledge of how the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of snowpack will respond to climate change in the western United States, with implications for snow-dependent social and ecological systems.

Download or read book Climate Change Impacts on Mountain Snowpack Presented in a Knowledge to Action Framework written by Eric Allan Sproles and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Throughout many of the world's mountain ranges snowpack accumulates during the winter and into the spring, providing a natural reservoir for water. As this reservoir melts, it fills streams and recharges groundwater for over 1 billion people globally. Despite its importance to water resources, our understanding of the storage capacity of mountain snowpack is incomplete. This partial knowledge limits our abilities to assess the impact that projected climate conditions will have on mountain snowpack and water resources. While understanding the effect of projected climate on mountain snowpack is a global question, it can be best understood at the basin scale. It is at this level that decision makers and water resource managers base their decisions and require a clarified understanding of basin's mountain snowpack. The McKenzie River Basin located in the central-western Cascades of Oregon exhibits characteristics typical of many mountain river systems globally and in the Pacific Northwestern United States. Here snowmelt provides critical water supply for hydropower, agriculture, ecosystems, recreation, and municipalities. While there is a surplus of water in winter, the summer months see flows reach a minimum and the same groups have to compete for a limited supply. Throughout the Pacific Northwestern United States, current analyses and those of projected future climate change impacts show rising temperatures, diminished snowpacks, and declining summertime streamflow. The impacts of climate change on water resources presents new challenges and requires fresh approaches to understanding problems that are only beginning to be recognized. Climate change also presents challenges to decision makers who need new kinds of climate and water information, and will need the scientific research community to help provide improved means of knowledge transfer. This dissertation quantified the basin-wide distribution of snowpack across multiple decades in present and in projected climate conditions, describing a 56% decrease in mountain snowpack with regional projected temperature increases. These results were used to develop a probabilistic understanding of snowpack in projected climates. This section described a significant shift in statistical relations of snowpack. One that would be statistically likely to accumulate every 3 out of 4 years would accumulate in 1 out of 20 years. Finally this research identifies methods to improved knowledge transfer from the research community to water resource professionals. Implementation of these recommendations would enable a more effective means of dissemination to stakeholders and policy makers. While this research focused only on the McKenzie River Basin, it has regional applications. Processes affecting snowpack in the McKenzie River Basin are similar to those in many other maritime, forested Pacific Northwest watersheds. The framework of this research could also be applied to regions outside of the Pacific Northwestern United States to gain a similar level of understanding of climate impacts on mountain snowpack.

Download or read book Climate Change and Rocky Mountain Ecosystems written by Jessica Halofsky and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-07-19 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is the result of a team of approximately 100 scientists and resource managers who worked together for two years to understand the effects of climatic variability and change on water resources, fisheries, forest vegetation, non-forest vegetation, wildlife, recreation, cultural resources and ecosystem services. Adaptation options, both strategic and tactical, were developed for each resource area. This information is now being applied in the northern rocky Mountains to ensure long-term sustainability in resource conditions. The volume chapters provide a technical assessment of the effects of climatic variability and change on natural and cultural resources, based on best available science, including new analyses obtained through modeling and synthesis of existing data. Each chapter also contains a summary of adaptation strategies (general) and tactics (on-the-ground actions) that have been developed by science-management teams.

Download or read book Impact of Global Warming on Snow in Ski Areas written by Christian Philipp Lackner and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A high-resolution (4 km) regional climate simulation conducted with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used to investigate potential impacts of global warming on skiing conditions in the interior western United States (IWUS). Recent past and near future climate conditions are compared. The past climate period is from November 1981 to October 2011. The future climate applies to a 30-year period centered on 2050. A pseudo global warming approach is used, with the driver re-analysis dataset perturbed by the CMIP5 ensemble mean model guidance. Using the 30-year retrospective simulation, a vertical adjustment technique is used to determine meteorological parameters in the complex terrain where ski areas are located. For snow water equivalent (SWE), Snow Telemetry sites close to ski areas are used to validate the technique and apply a correction to SWE in ski areas. The vulnerability to climate change is assessed for 71 ski areas in the IWUS considering SWE, artificially produced snow, and other factors. Impacts are found throughout the IWUS. The lowest elevation and lowest latitude ski areas in the IWUS are the most vulnerable to climate change in the next decades. Throughout the snow season, natural SWE decreases significantly at the low elevations and low latitudes. No significant change in snowpack is predicted in the mid-season at the higher elevation ski areas in Colorado, Montana, and Wyoming. The seasonal number of days with sufficient natural and artificial snow for skiing decreases in all ski areas, with the smallest impacts in Colorado.

Download or read book Understanding the Impact of Climate Change on Snowpack Extent and Measurement in the Columbia River Basin and Nested Sub Basins written by Aimee L. Brown and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Shifting climate patterns in the Columbia River basin are affecting snow pack, and, as a result, stream flow throughout the region. In the Oregon Cascades, ever growing populations, and their associated activities, place increasing stress on an already over allocated hydrologic system. Political pressures, including the possibility of renegotiation or termination of the Columbia River Treaty between the United States and Canada; societal pressures, including a desire for ecosystem services and fish habitat; and economic pressures, including a need for adequate streamflow for hydropower generation and irrigation, all necessitate a better understanding of current and future snow pack. This work focuses on analyzing the ability of the current snowpack measurement system to represent and capture snowpack in the Columbia River basin and its sub basins under both today's climate and future climates. In addition, this work develops a more comprehensive knowledge of the impact climate warming will have on snow-covered areas across the region. To determine the efficacy of current snow water equivalence (SWE) measurement sites, the locations and characteristics of sites in the McKenzie River Basin, a sub basin of the Columbia River basin, were considered. SWE was distributed through the basin using the physically based model, SnowModel. SWE values at the four SNOTEL sites in the basin ranged from 0.18-0.37 m at peak SWE. Three of the sites had SWE values greater than 180% of average SWE of the snow covered area. Using elevation, aspect and slope, a 16-node binary regression tree explained controlling variables on SWE at the basin scale. As expected, elevation is the primary determinant in SWE distribution, however, the influence of different parameters shifted throughout the accumulation and ablation seasons. Updated high resolution PRISM precipitation and temperature data are used to map areas within the Columbia River basin and two nested sub basins that are at risk of turning from winter snow dominated precipitation regimes to winter rain dominated under warming scenarios ranging from 1-3°C. Within the Columbia River basin, the Oregon Cascades exhibit the greatest degree of sensitivity to changes in precipitation. Under a 2°C warming scenario, an increase that the International Panel on Climate Change finds highly likely to occur within the next 30 years, 30% of current-day snow covered area in Oregon's Willamette River Basin will be at risk of turning from snow to rain. The water storage that will be lost if such a change does occur (0.73 km3) is equivalent to more than 8 months worth of water at the current rate of water use in the basin. Data from nine regional stations in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative Observer Program were used to validate placement of snow by the model. The conclusions of this work suggest that the placement of snow measurement sites requires refinement and improvement if the measurements are to accurately represent basin wide snowpack today and in the future. Water and natural resource managers will find the results presented here useful for siting future measurement locations that capture and represent SWE during times of interest. While political, societal and economic pressures will only increase, these findings provide early steps for the creation of a more robust system that has the potential to help stakeholders make informed decisions about their water resources, their communities and their needs.

Download or read book Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Stream Temperature in the Nooksack River Basin written by Stephanie E. Truitt and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stream temperatures in mountain streams in the western Cascade Mountains are heavily influenced by factors such as discharge, air temperature, and as in the case of the Nooksack River Basin in northwest Washington State; snow and glacial melt. The Nooksack basin is sensitive to warming climates due to the regions moderate Pacific maritime climate. Previous modeling studies in the upper Nooksack basins indicate a reduction in snowpack and spring runoff, and a recession of glaciers into the 21st century due to global climate change. How stream temperatures will respond to these changes is unknown. We use the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) coupled with a glacier dynamics model to simulate hydrology and the River Basin Model (RBM) to model stream temperature from present to the year 2090 in the North, Middle, and South forks of the Nooksack River basin. We simulate forecasted climate change effects on hydrology and stream temperature using gridded daily statically downscaled data from 10 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) with two different representative concentration pathways (RCP) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Simulation results project a trending increase in stream temperature into the 21st century in all three forks of the Nooksack. There is a strong correlation between rising stream temperatures and warming air temperatures, decreasing stream discharge; and snow and glacial meltwater. We find that the highest stream temperatures and the greatest monthly mean 7-day average of the daily maximum stream temperature (7-DADMax) values are predicted in the lower relief, unglaciated South Fork basin. For the 30 years surrounding the 2075 time period, the mouth of the South Fork is forecasted to have a mean of 115 days above the 16 °C 7-day average of the daily maximum stream temperature threshold. Streams in the Middle and North fork basins with higher elevations that sustain more snow and glacier ice are slower to respond to warming climates due to meltwater contributions, especially in the next 50 years. Towards the end of this century, when snowpack and glacial volume is greatly decreased, the buffering effect of meltwater declines, and the North and Middle forks experience larger increases in mean daily stream temperature. For the 30 years surrounding the 2075 time period, the mouths of the Middle and North forks are forecasted to have means of 35 and 23 days, respectively, above the 16 °C 7-DADMax threshold.

Download or read book Climate Warming Impacts on Alpine Snowpacks in Western North America written by Suzan L. Lapp and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A wide area assessment of forecast changes in wintertime synoptic conditions over western North America is combined with a meso-scale alpine hydrometeorology model to evaluate the joint impact(s) of forecast climate change on snowpack conditions in an alpine watershed in the southern Canadian Rockies. The synoptic analysis was used to generate long-term climate time series scenarios using the CCCma CGCM1. An alpine hydrometerology model is used to predict changes in wintertime precipitation at the watershed scale. A mass balance snow model is utilized to predict the overall snow accumulation throughout a watershed. A vapour transfer model has been incorporated in the snow model to estimate snow volumes more accurately. The synoptic analysis and GCM output forecasts a modest increase in both winter precipitation and temperatures in the study area, resulting in a decline of winter snow accumulations, and hence an expected decline in spring runoff.

Download or read book Montana Climate Change Action Plan written by Montana. Governor's Climate Change Advisory Committee and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Effects of Forecasted Climate Change on Mass Wasting Susceptibility in the Nooksack River Basin written by Kevin Knapp and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Nooksack River in Whatcom County, Washington is an essential fresh water resource for industry, agriculture, municipalities and serves as vital fish habitat. Like many mountainous watersheds in the western Cascades, the Nooksack Basin is susceptible to shallow mass wasting and debris flows because of its steep slopes, young glaciated terrain, and storms with high intensity precipitation. Understanding how projected reductions in snowpack and increased winter rainfall will affect mass - wasting susceptibility in the Nooksack basin is important, because sediment produced mass wasting will jeopardize valuable aquatic and fish habitat, increase flooding risk in the Nooksack River, and affect estuarine and coastal dynamics. With a projected 60% decrease in snow pack and increase in the snowline elevation by the 2075 climate normal, there will be an increase in exposed forest roads, harvestable forest areas, and previously mapped landslides, which are all documented to increase sediment delivery to streams. Retreating glaciers will produce at least 2 km 2 of exposed moraines, which have the potential to erode, fail and provide additional sediment to streams, especially during large storm events coinciding with minimum snowpack during the fall and early spring seasons . I applied a static infinite - slope ArcGIS model and a dynamic, probabilistic mass - wasting model integrated into the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to the Nooksack River watershed to determine areas susceptible to mass wasting into the 21 st century. Susceptibility maps produced by the models indicate an increase in regions susceptible to slope failure during the winter months in snow free areas at higher elevations later in the 21 st century. Slope failure susceptibility increased with soil saturation, which is anticipated with higher intense winter rainfall events. Slopes greater than about 30° with thick regolith deposits and lower soil mechanical strength, e.g., sand, loamy sand, sandy loam, silt, moraines, glacial outwash and former landslide deposits were correlated with higher mass - wasting susceptibility. The simpler static ArcGIS infinite - slope model yielded comparable results to the more complex probabilistic method integrated into the DHSVM for identifying areas susceptible to mass wasting.