Download or read book Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow in a Sub basin of the Lower Churchill River Labrador written by Amy Pryse-Phillips and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Investigation of the Projected Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydrology of Labrador s Churchill River Basin Using Multi model Ensembles written by Jonas Roberts and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This manuscript thesis presents four stand-alone papers which all contribute to the investigation of projected impacts of climate change on the hydrology of Labrador's Churchill River Basin. The overarching goal of this undertaking was to provide useful information to Nalcor Energy, a hydroelectric developer, regarding the change in the amount and timing of water in the Churchill River between a base period (1971-2000) and a future period (2041-2070). Three separate multi-model approaches used data from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program to look at the impacts of climate change on the Churchill River: (i) Bias-corrected precipitation and temperature data forced a hydrologic model to investigate the changes in mean daily streamflow for the Pinus River, a subbasin of the Churchill River; (ii) A new approach (dubbed "fullstream analysis") took advantage of the full range of simulated hydrological variables from each ensemble member and was used to study the expected changes in mean annual runoff of the entire basin, and; (iii) Weighted multi-model ensembles examined the simulated impacts of climate change on mean monthly runoff for the entire basin. Several results were common across the various approaches. Ensemble mean annual increases in runoff were found to be similar, between 8.9% and 14.6%. Further to this, an increase in cold-season runoff amounts, an earlier onset of the spring melt (though not necessarily a larger spring melt) and no discernable change in the late summer and early fall runoff were found. In an effort to further understand sources of error and uncertainty of the climate models used, water balances were investigated and the annual cycle of residuals quantified. Residual magnitudes varied widely between months and models and were dependent on whether one examined atmospheric or terrestrial balances. Water balance residuals remained relatively consistent between time periods implying they are systemic and not climate dependent.

Download or read book Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow and Stream Temperature in the South Fork of the Stillaguamish River written by Katherine Mary Clarke and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Stillaguamish River in northwest Washington State is an important regional water resource for local agriculture, industry, and First Nations tribes and a critical habitat for several threatened and endangered salmonid species, including the Chinook salmon. The river is currently subject to a temperature total maximum daily load, so it is important to understand how projected climate change will affect future stream temperatures and thus salmon populations. Snowpack is the main contributor to spring and summer streamflow and helps to mitigate stream temperatures as air temperatures rise through the summer in the South Fork of the Stillaguamish River. I used gridded historical meteorological data to calibrate the physically-based Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model and River Basin Model and then applied downscaled, gridded projected climate data to predict how a changing climate will influence hydrology and stream temperature in the South Fork basin through the end of the 21st century.

Download or read book Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow of the Nicolet River as Affected by Snowmelt Using ArcSWAT written by Fei Tang and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: " In the Nicolet River watershed of Southern Quebec, Canada, runoff resulting from snowmelt is responsible for the spring peak flow, which may result in flooding when temperature rises rapidly in a short time. In this study, streamflow modeling for the Nicolet River watershed was conducted, then the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of this basin were studied by comparing the streamflow characteristics of historical and projected future climate data under a wide range of climate change scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was calibrated and validated against the observed streamflow for the period of 1986-1990 and 1991-2000, respectively. The ArcSWAT model was shown to be a reliable tool for simulating the stream flow (PBIAS within 15%, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) > 0.50 and RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR)

Download or read book Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Using the Swat Model in a Small Forested Watershed of Salinas River Basin CA written by Ioannis Kamarinas and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Climate Change Impacts on Snowmelt Driven Streamflow in the Grand River Watershed written by Amy Dietrich and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change is one of the most significant global environmental drivers threatening the quality and quantity of future water resources. Global temperature increases will have significant effects on the hydrologic regime of northern regions due to changes in snowfall and snowmelt. Considerable research has been conducted in western Canada to rigorously quantify snowmelt-driven streamflow processes, however, less focus has been directed towards understanding these processes in eastern Canada and Ontario. In the southern Ontario Grand River Watershed (GRW), snowmelt contributions to streamflow (freshet) make up a significant portion of the annual water yield, and the period of snowmelt is also of key concern for flood mitigation. This thesis aims to quantify historical and projected changes to timing and streamflow during freshet in the Nith River, an unregulated tributary of the Grand River. Climate data (temperature, rainfall, snowfall, and snow proportion) from observations and future scenarios were analyzed to quantify the contributions of climate conditions surrounding the timing and volume of the freshet. The annual timing of snowmelt-driven streamflow was quantified using centre time (CT), and streamflow volumes were quantified by various percentiles of streamflow (Qn) during four periods of the water year (October-December, January-February, March-April, and May-September). Historical trends in streamflow and climate data were examined using hydrometric data (1914-2016) of a stream gauge from the Water Survey of Canada, and climate data (1950-2016) from Environment and Climate Change Canada at two stations. Projected climate data were from an ensemble of models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). A total of nine distinct models ran two scenarios from AR4 for the 2050s; moderate (B1) and high (A1B). These time-slice projections were then used to force the hydrologic model GAWSER to simulate future streamflow data. The results show that CT in the Nith River has advanced by 17 days, on average, from 1914 to 2016 (P=0.036), and the advance is projected to continue as a function of future emissions scenario (approximately 12 days for scenario B1, and 17 days for A1B). Historical CT was weakly negatively correlated with temperature (-0.51, P

Download or read book Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Fluvial Processes written by Robert Baidoc and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Watershed models are an important tool in regional planning and conservation efforts. They can provide valuable insight into the potential impacts of different land use changes and future climate change scenarios on water resources, which can lead to better, more informed decision making. Climate impacts, in particular, add a new level of uncertainty with regard to freshwater supplies as the hydrological cycle is intimately linked with changes in atmospheric temperatures. The main objective of this study is to investigate the extent of long-term climate change on streamflow and stream temperature within an agriculturally defined watershed in Northern Ontario. For this purpose, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was utilized to provide a better understanding of how hydrological processes in the Slate River Watershed will alter in response to long-term climate change scenarios. The SWAT model is a distributed/semi-distributed physically-based continuous model, developed by the USDA for the management of agricultural watersheds, and is currently one of the most popular watershed-based models used in climate change analysis of snowmelt dominated watersheds. Historic flow data was compared to a discharge model that reflected four climate models driven by SRES A1B and A2 through the middle and end of the century. Hydrology modelling was enhanced with stream temperature analysis to gain a comprehensive understanding of the extent of changing climate regimes on the Slate River. A linear regression approach representing a positive relationship between stream temperature and air temperature was used to determine the thermal classification of the Slate River. Our results indicated that the Slate River was well within the warm-water character regime. Unusual high stream temperatures were recorded at mid- August; these were accompanied by low water levels and a lack of riparian vegetative cover at the recording site, providing a possible explanation for such temperature anomalies. The results of the flow discharge modelling supported our hypothesis that tributaries within our ecosystem would experience increasing water stress in a warming climate as the average total discharge from the Slate River decreased in both climate scenarios at the middle and end of the century. Although the lack of accurate subsurface soil data within the study region prevented our discharge model from quantifying the changes in stream discharge, the strong correlation between the observed and simulated flow data as reflected by a 0.92 r2 statistic gave us confidence that discharge from the Slate River will continue to follow a decreasing trend as climate change persists into the future. This study aims to support the future endeavours of hydrologic modelling of watersheds in Northern Ontario by illustrating the current capabilities and limits of climate change analysis studies within this region.

Download or read book Estimation of Climate Change Effects on Streamflows Stream Temperatures and Fish Thermal Habitat written by Omid Mohseni and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 594 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Prediction of Climate Change Effects on Streamflow Regime Important to Stream Ecology written by Sulochan Dhungel and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A major challenge in freshwater ecosystem management is to predict future changes in streamflow regime. This thesis focused on identifying and modeling specific characteristics of streamflow that are important to stream ecosystems. The need to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on stream ecosystems makes it important to study how streamflow regime may change. In this thesis we sought to advance understanding of the effect of climate change on streamflow regime by (1) examining the spatial variation in streamflow attributes across the continental US, (2) modeling how these streamflow attributes vary with current climate and watershed features, and (3) using this model with future climate projections of changes in precipitation and temperature to predict how streamflow attributes change with climate change. We used long-term daily flow measurements for 601 gauged streams whose watersheds were in relatively unimpaired condition to characterize streamflow regimes. Sixteen streamflow variables were identified which in our judgment sufficiently characterized aspects of the streamflow regime most relevant to stream ecosystem structure and function. These are computed for each stream. Principal component analysis with Varimax rotation reduced the dimensionality to five uncorrelated streamflow factors that quantify lowflow, magnitude, flashiness, timing and constancy. These independent factors were used to hereafter classify the streams based on distances in factor space into three broad classes which were further divided into eight classes. We used Random Forests to develop a model to predict these stream classes using watershed and climate attributes. The model had an accuracy of about 75%. Downscaled climate projections of precipitation and temperature were used to predict the changes in these stream classes by 2100 using the RF model. Thirty-three percent of selected sites were predicted to change into a different stream class by 2100. The least changes were predicted in snow-fed streams in the west while most of changes were predicted for rain-fed small perennial streams and intermittent streams in the central and eastern US. Class changes predicted, due to projected climate change provide a basis for (i) considering the extent of projected changes and (ii) formulating approaches to protect ecosystems that may be subject to change.

Download or read book Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on the Surface and Subsurface Hydrology of the Grand River Watershed written by Dennis Colautti and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A numerical modelling analysis of climate change's precipitation effects on the long-term, averaged surface and subsurface hydrology of the Grand River Watershed (GRW) was undertaken in order to assess possible areas of concern for decision makers in the water management sector. The physically-based, fully-integrated and variably-saturated 3-D surface-subsurface numerical simulator, HydroGeoSphere, was used to drive five mid-21st century climate change scenarios, developed from multiple general circulation models. Calibration involved altering measured and literature-derived hydraulic conductivity and precipitation distribution estimates, resulting in very good matching between observed and simulated long-term average surface flow at all gauge stations. Subsurface head results, too, matched observed heads quite well, though groundwater linkage to neighbouring watersheds was not included. When groundwater linkage to neighbouring watersheds was allowed, via regional Dirichlet boundary conditions used in a parent study, groundwater throughput was deemed to be unrealistic. All but one of the climate change scenarios caused an increase in both river discharge and water table elevation, with the greatest climate perturbations causing the greatest increases. For Scenario 1 (5% less precipitation than the 1960-to-1999 average), percentage discharge changes averaged -15% over all gauge stations. For the other scenarios (more precipitation than average), the inter-scenario discharge response ranged from approximately +12% to +59%. In general the range of inter-subcatchment response was greater than was the range for intra-subcatchment response; the greatest percentage response was consistently in the Speed River subcatchment, while the least was consistently in the Nith and Conestogo subcatchments. The exception was the application of less-than-average precipitation to the Grand River, whose gauge stations reported percentage changes in discharge that varied more substantially from one another. Subsurface hydrology reacted to the climate change scenarios in much the same manner as did the surface hydrology, with all climate change scenarios associated with a precipitation increase unsurprisingly resulting in higher total hydraulic heads throughout the entire domain. Specifically, the minimum and maximum mean head increases among the climate change scenarios were 0.41 m and 1.25 m respectively, while the only decrease was an average of 0.55 m. Similarly, the depth from the ground surface to the water table decreased in most scenarios, the maximum water table rise being 1.08 m and the minimum 0.36 m. When precipitation was allowed to decrease by 5% relative to the long-term average, the average water table elevation decreased by 0.48 m. However the water table's pattern of high and low points remained very much the same among all climate change scenarios, suggesting that basin-wide groundwater flow patterns may not be among the hydrological measures most sensitive to climate change. Groundwater recharge, like almost all other components of the water budget, changed in linear proportion to the climate forcing and in agreement with GRW recharge estimates developed by others. Evapotranspiration, which met potential evapotranspiration in all scenarios due to the constant application of precipitation, was the only element of the water budget that did not increase, even though the water table was elevated closer to the rooting zone by most of the climate scenarios. On a smaller scale, changes in flow patterns may well be expected, given that zones of infiltration were observed to intensify with most of the climate forcing.

Download or read book Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Reclaimed Water Quality written by Jamie K. Quisenberry and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Icy Rivers Heating Up written by Sandra van der Linden and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 174 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow in the Upper North Saskatchewan River Basin Alberta written by Michael W. Nemeth and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Modelling Water Quality of the Pike River Watershed Under Four Climate Change Scenarios written by and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water quality of the Pike River watershed, an important contributor of nutrient loads to northern Lake Champlain, were predicted for the time horizon 2041-2070. Four water quality scenarios were simulated using a version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modified to suit Québec's agroclimatic conditions. Three of the scenarios were generated using climates simulated with the Fourth Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM4). The fourth scenario was generated using the climate simulated with the Arpege Regional Climate Model. SWAT was independently calibrated for the period 2001-2003, and then validated for the periods of 2004-2006 and 1980-2000, before inputting the climate scenarios. Potential mean changes predicted by these scenarios were then analysed for the evapotranspiration, surface and subsurface runoff, stream flow, sediment yields, and total phosphorus and nitrogen.After calibration, mean annual evapotranspiration, surface and subsurface flow as well as water percolation were found to correspond satisfactorily with the hydrology of the basin. Likewise, monthly predicted stream flow compared reasonably well with observed stream flow. The performance of SWAT in simulating sediment and nutrient yields was clearly improved after calibration but did not always reach standards of acceptability. As for climate change results, only one scenario predicted a significant increase in mean annual stream flow and nutrient loadings. However, when considering shorter time spans, simulations predicted significant changes including a winter stream flow two to three times greater than current stream flow and earlier spring floods. The identified causes are the early onset of spring snowmelt, a greater number of rainfall events and snowmelt episodes caused by higher winter and spring temperatures. In contrast, peak flows in April, as well as summer stream flow, appear to decrease but not always significantly. Nutrient

Download or read book Assessment of Climate Change and Agricultural Land Use Change on Streamflow Input to Devils Lake written by Courtney Catherine Jackson and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Modelling Water Quality of the Pike River Watershed Under Four Climate Change Scenarios written by Colline Gombault and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water quality of the Pike River watershed, an important contributor of nutrient loads to northern Lake Champlain, were predicted for the time horizon 2041-2070. Four water quality scenarios were simulated using a version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modified to suit Québec's agroclimatic conditions. Three of the scenarios were generated using climates simulated with the Fourth Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM4). The fourth scenario was generated using the climate simulated with the Arpege Regional Climate Model. SWAT was independently calibrated for the period 2001-2003, and then validated for the periods of 2004-2006 and 1980-2000, before inputting the climate scenarios. Potential mean changes predicted by these scenarios were then analysed for the evapotranspiration, surface and subsurface runoff, stream flow, sediment yields, and total phosphorus and nitrogen.After calibration, mean annual evapotranspiration, surface and subsurface flow as well as water percolation were found to correspond satisfactorily with the hydrology of the basin. Likewise, monthly predicted stream flow compared reasonably well with observed stream flow. The performance of SWAT in simulating sediment and nutrient yields was clearly improved after calibration but did not always reach standards of acceptability. As for climate change results, only one scenario predicted a significant increase in mean annual stream flow and nutrient loadings. However, when considering shorter time spans, simulations predicted significant changes including a winter stream flow two to three times greater than current stream flow and earlier spring floods. The identified causes are the early onset of spring snowmelt, a greater number of rainfall events and snowmelt episodes caused by higher winter and spring temperatures. In contrast, peak flows in April, as well as summer stream flow, appear to decrease but not always significantly. Nutrient delivery to the lake significantly increased in winter and occurred earlier in the year as a consequence of hydrological changes. A three- to four-fold increase in subsurface flow was also observed in winter which may increase nutrient losses through this pathway." --

Download or read book Development of a Low flow Hazard Model for the Fraser Basin British Columbia written by Martin Carver and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The epicentre of the mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak at this time is in the Fraser River drainage basin in British Columbia. Due to the infestation's area and associated salvage harvest options, the potential exists for widespread and significant local and regional hydrologic impacts within the basin. This paper discusses a low-flow hazard model that was developed for third-order catchments within the Fraser River watershed. Baseline and mountain pine beetle-infestation and harvest scenarios were modeled for seven catchments for direct comparison with the Variable Infiltration Capacity modeling results. The model is to be used in risk-based hydrology modeling to produce a comprehensive knowledge of mountain pine beetle-infestation effects on the hydrology of the Fraser River watershed and its major sub-basins in British Columbia, Canada.--Document.