Download or read book Risk Modeling Assessment and Management written by Yacov Y. Haimes and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-09-20 with total page 810 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Examines timely multidisciplinary applications, problems, and case histories in risk modeling, assessment, and management Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Third Edition describes the state of the art of risk analysis, a rapidly growing field with important applications in engineering, science, manufacturing, business, homeland security, management, and public policy. Unlike any other text on the subject, this definitive work applies the art and science of risk analysis to current and emergent engineering and socioeconomic problems. It clearly demonstrates how to quantify risk and construct probabilities for real-world decision-making problems, including a host of institutional, organizational, and political issues. Avoiding higher mathematics whenever possible, this important new edition presents basic concepts as well as advanced material. It incorporates numerous examples and case studies to illustrate the analytical methods under discussion and features restructured and updated chapters, as well as: A new chapter applying systems-driven and risk-based analysis to a variety of Homeland Security issues An accompanying FTP site—developed with Professor Joost Santos—that offers 150 example problems with an Instructor's Solution Manual and case studies from a variety of journals Case studies on the 9/11 attack and Hurricane Katrina An adaptive multiplayer Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) game added to Chapter Three This is an indispensable resource for academic, industry, and government professionals in such diverse areas as homeland and cyber security, healthcare, the environment, physical infrastructure systems, engineering, business, and more. It is also a valuable textbook for both undergraduate and graduate students in systems engineering and systems management courses with a focus on our uncertain world.

Download or read book Modeling Risk written by Johnathan Mun and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-06-15 with total page 916 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An updated guide to risk analysis and modeling Although risk was once seen as something that was both unpredictable and uncontrollable, the evolution of risk analysis tools and theories has changed the way we look at this important business element. In the Second Edition of Analyzing and Modeling Risk, expert Dr. Johnathan Mun provides up-to-date coverage of risk analysis as it is applied within the realms of business risk analysis and offers an intuitive feel of what risk looks like, as well as the different ways of quantifying it. This Second Edition provides professionals in all industries a more comprehensive guide on such key concepts as risk and return, the fundamentals of model building, Monte Carlo simulation, forecasting, time-series and regression analysis, optimization, real options, and more. Includes new examples, questions, and exercises as well as updates using Excel 2007 Book supported by author's proprietary risk analysis software found on the companion CD-ROM Offers both a qualitative and quantitative description of risk Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, this reliable resource covers all of the essential tools and techniques that risk managers need to successfully conduct risk analysis. Note: CD-ROM/DVD and other supplementary materials are not included as part of eBook file.

Download or read book Credit Risk Modeling using Excel and VBA written by Gunter Löeffler and published by Wiley. This book was released on 2007-06-05 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In today's increasingly competitive financial world, successful risk management, portfolio management, and financial structuring demand more than up-to-date financial know-how. They also call for quantitative expertise, including the ability to effectively apply mathematical modeling tools and techniques, in this case credit. Credit Risk Modeling using Excel and VBA with DVD provides practitioners with a hands on introduction to credit risk modeling. Instead of just presenting analytical methods it shows how to implement them using Excel and VBA, in addition to a detailed description in the text a DVD guides readers step by step through the implementation. The authors begin by showing how to use option theoretic and statistical models to estimate a borrowers default risk. The second half of the book is devoted to credit portfolio risk. The authors guide readers through the implementation of a credit risk model, show how portfolio models can be validated or used to access structured credit products like CDO’s. The final chapters address modeling issues associated with the new Basel Accord.

Download or read book Modeling Risk written by Johnathan Mun and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-07-21 with total page 626 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This completely revised and updated edition of Applied Risk Analysis includes new case studies in modeling risk and uncertainty as well as a new risk analysis CD-ROM prepared by Dr. Mun. On the CD-ROM you'll find his Risk Simulator and Real Options Super Lattice Solver software as well as many useful spreadsheet models. "Johnathan Mun's book is a sparkling jewel in my finance library. Mun demonstrates a deep understanding of the underlying mathematical theory in his ability to reduce complex concepts to lucid explanations and applications. For this reason, he's my favorite writer in this field." —Janet Tavakoli, President, Tavakoli Structured Finance, Inc. and author of Collateralized Debt Obligations and Structured Finance "A must-read for product portfolio managers . . . it captures the risk exposure of strategic investments, and provides management with estimates of potential outcomes and options for risk mitigation." —Rafael E. Gutierrez, Executive Director of Strategic Marketing and Planning, Seagate Technology, Inc. "Once again, Dr. Mun has created a 'must-have, must-read' book for anyone interested in the practical application of risk analysis. Other books speak in academic generalities, or focus on one area of risk application. [This book] gets to the heart of the matter with applications for every area of risk analysis. You have a real option to buy almost any book?you should exercise your option and get this one!" —Glenn Kautt, MBA, CFP, EA, President and Chairman, The Monitor Group, Inc. Note: CD-ROM/DVD and other supplementary materials are not included as part of eBook file.

Download or read book Advanced Analytical Models written by Johnathan Mun and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-06-23 with total page 1035 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If you’re seeking solutions to advanced and even esoteric problems, Advanced Analytical Models goes beyond theoretical discussions of modeling by facilitating a thorough understanding of concepts and their real-world applications—including the use of embedded functions and algorithms. This reliable resource will equip you with all the tools you need to quantitatively assess risk in a range of areas, whether you are a risk manager, business decision-maker, or investor.

Download or read book Credit Risk Modeling using Excel and VBA written by Gunter Löeffler and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2007-04-30 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In today's increasingly competitive financial world, successful risk management, portfolio management, and financial structuring demand more than up-to-date financial know-how. They also call for quantitative expertise, including the ability to effectively apply mathematical modeling tools and techniques, in this case credit. Credit Risk Modeling using Excel and VBA with DVD provides practitioners with a hands on introduction to credit risk modeling. Instead of just presenting analytical methods it shows how to implement them using Excel and VBA, in addition to a detailed description in the text a DVD guides readers step by step through the implementation. The authors begin by showing how to use option theoretic and statistical models to estimate a borrowers default risk. The second half of the book is devoted to credit portfolio risk. The authors guide readers through the implementation of a credit risk model, show how portfolio models can be validated or used to access structured credit products like CDO’s. The final chapters address modeling issues associated with the new Basel Accord.

Download or read book Models for Quantifying Risk Sixth Edition written by Stephen J. Camilli, ASA and published by ACTEX Publications. This book was released on 2014-06-24 with total page 538 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is used in many university courses for SOA Exam MLC preparation. The Fifth Edition is the official reference for CAS Exam LC. The Sixth Edition of this textbook presents a variety of stochastic models for the actuary to use in undertaking the analysis of risk. It is designed to be appropriate for use in a two or three semester university course in basic actuarial science. It was written with the SOA Exam MLC and CAS Exam LC in mind. Models are evaluated in a generic form with life contingencies included as one of many applications of the science. Students will find this book to be a valuable reference due to its easy-to-understand explanations and end-of-chapter exercises. In 2013 the Society of Actuaries announced a change to Exam MLC's format, incorporating 60% written answer questions and new standard notation and terminology to be used for the exam. There are several areas of expanded content in the Sixth Edition due to these changes. Six important changes to the Sixth Edition: WRITTEN-ANSWER EXAMPLES This edition offers additional written-answer examples in order to better prepare the reader for the new SOA eam format. NOTATION AND TERMINOLOGY CONFORMS TO EXAM MLC MQR 6 fully incorporates all standard notation and terminology for exam MLC, as detailed by the SOA in their document Notation and Terminology Used on Exam MLC. MULTI-STATE MODELS Extension of multi-state model representationt to almost all topics covered in the text. FOCUS ON NORTH AMERICAN MARKET AND ACTUARIAL PROFESSION This book is written specifically for the multi-disciplinary needs of the North American Market. This is reflected in both content and terminology. PROFIT TESTING, PARTICIPATING INSURANCE, AND UNIVERSAL LIFE MQR 6 contains an expanded treatment of these topics. THIELE'S EQUATION Additional applications of this important equation are presented, to more fully prepare the reader for exam day. A separate solutions manual with detailed solutions to all of the text exercises is also available. Please see the Related Items Tab for a direct link I selected Models for Quantifying Risk as the text for my class. Given that the syllabus had changed quite dramatically from prior years, I was looking for a text that would cover all the material in the new syllabus in a way that was rigorous, easy to understand, and would prepare students for the May 2012 MLC exam. To me, the text with the accompanying solutions manual does precisely that. --Jay Vadiveloo, Ph.D., FSA, MAAA, CFA, Math Department, University of Connecticut I found that the exposition of the material is thorough while the concepts are readily accessible and well illustrated with examples. The book was an invaluable source of practice problems when I was preparing for the Exam MLC. Studying from it enabled me to pass this exam." -- Dmitry Glotov, Math Department, University of Connecticut "This book is extremely well written and structured." -- Kate Li, Student, University of Connecticut "Overall, the text is thorough, understandable, and well-organized. The clear exposition and excellent use of examples will benefit the student and help her avoid 'missing the forest for the trees'. I was impressed by the quality and quantity of examples and exercises throughout the text; students will find this collection of problems sorted by topic valuable for their exam preparation. Overall, I strongly recommend the book." -- Kristin Moore, Ph.D., ASA, University of Michigan

Download or read book Healthcare Risk Adjustment and Predictive Modeling written by Ian G. Duncan and published by ACTEX Publications. This book was released on 2011 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text is listed on the Course of Reading for SOA Fellowship study in the Group & Health specialty track. Healthcare Risk Adjustment and Predictive Modeling provides a comprehensive guide to healthcare actuaries and other professionals interested in healthcare data analytics, risk adjustment and predictive modeling. The book first introduces the topic with discussions of health risk, available data, clinical identification algorithms for diagnostic grouping and the use of grouper models. The second part of the book presents the concept of data mining and some of the common approaches used by modelers. The third and final section covers a number of predictive modeling and risk adjustment case-studies, with examples from Medicaid, Medicare, disability, depression diagnosis and provider reimbursement, as well as the use of predictive modeling and risk adjustment outside the U.S. For readers who wish to experiment with their own models, the book also provides access to a test dataset.

Download or read book The Risk Driven Business Model written by Karan Girotra and published by Harvard Business Review Press. This book was released on 2014-06-10 with total page 251 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How to outsmart risk Risk has been defined as the potential for losing something of value. In business, that value could be your original investment or your expected future returns. The Risk-Driven Business Model will help you manage risk better by showing how the key choices you make in designing your business models either increase or reduce two characteristic types of risk—information risk, when you make decisions without enough information, and incentive-alignment risk, when decision makers’ incentives are at odds with the broader goals of the company. Leaders who understand how the structure of their business model affects risk have the power to create wealth, revolutionize industries, and shape a better world. INSEAD’s Karan Girotra and Serguei Netessine, noted operations and innovation professors who have consulted with dozens of companies, walk you through a business model audit to determine what key decisions get made in a business, when they get made, who makes them, and why we make the decisions we do. By changing your company’s key decisions within this framework, you can fundamentally alter the risks that will impact your business. This book is for entrepreneurs and executives in companies involved in dynamic industries where the locus of risk is shifting, and includes lessons from Zipcar, Blockbuster, Apple, Benetton, Kickstarter, Walmart, and dozens of other global companies. The Risk-Driven Business Model demystifies business model risk, with clear directives aimed at improving decision making and driving your business forward.

Download or read book Advanced Modelling in Finance using Excel and VBA written by Mary Jackson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-08-30 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new and unique book demonstrates that Excel and VBA can play an important role in the explanation and implementation of numerical methods across finance. Advanced Modelling in Finance provides a comprehensive look at equities, options on equities and options on bonds from the early 1950s to the late 1990s. The book adopts a step-by-step approach to understanding the more sophisticated aspects of Excel macros and VBA programming, showing how these programming techniques can be used to model and manipulate financial data, as applied to equities, bonds and options. The book is essential for financial practitioners who need to develop their financial modelling skill sets as there is an increase in the need to analyse and develop ever more complex 'what if' scenarios. Specifically applies Excel and VBA to the financial markets Packaged with a CD containing the software from the examples throughout the book Note: CD-ROM/DVD and other supplementary materials are not included as part of eBook file.

Download or read book Security Risk Management Body of Knowledge written by Julian Talbot and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-09-20 with total page 486 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A framework for formalizing risk management thinking in today¿s complex business environment Security Risk Management Body of Knowledge details the security risk management process in a format that can easily be applied by executive managers and security risk management practitioners. Integrating knowledge, competencies, methodologies, and applications, it demonstrates how to document and incorporate best-practice concepts from a range of complementary disciplines. Developed to align with International Standards for Risk Management such as ISO 31000 it enables professionals to apply security risk management (SRM) principles to specific areas of practice. Guidelines are provided for: Access Management; Business Continuity and Resilience; Command, Control, and Communications; Consequence Management and Business Continuity Management; Counter-Terrorism; Crime Prevention through Environmental Design; Crisis Management; Environmental Security; Events and Mass Gatherings; Executive Protection; Explosives and Bomb Threats; Home-Based Work; Human Rights and Security; Implementing Security Risk Management; Intellectual Property Protection; Intelligence Approach to SRM; Investigations and Root Cause Analysis; Maritime Security and Piracy; Mass Transport Security; Organizational Structure; Pandemics; Personal Protective Practices; Psych-ology of Security; Red Teaming and Scenario Modeling; Resilience and Critical Infrastructure Protection; Asset-, Function-, Project-, and Enterprise-Based Security Risk Assessment; Security Specifications and Postures; Security Training; Supply Chain Security; Transnational Security; and Travel Security.

Download or read book Credit Scoring and Its Applications Second Edition written by Lyn Thomas and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2017-08-16 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit Scoring and Its Applications is recognized as the bible of credit scoring. It contains a comprehensive review of the objectives, methods, and practical implementation of credit and behavioral scoring. The authors review principles of the statistical and operations research methods used in building scorecards, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of each approach. The book contains a description of practical problems encountered in building, using, and monitoring scorecards and examines some of the country-specific issues in bankruptcy, equal opportunities, and privacy legislation. It contains a discussion of economic theories of consumers' use of credit, and readers will gain an understanding of what lending institutions seek to achieve by using credit scoring and the changes in their objectives. New to the second edition are lessons that can be learned for operations research model building from the global financial crisis, current applications of scoring, discussions on the Basel Accords and their requirements for scoring, new methods for scorecard building and new expanded sections on ways of measuring scorecard performance. And survival analysis for credit scoring. Other unique features include methods of monitoring scorecards and deciding when to update them, as well as different applications of scoring, including direct marketing, profit scoring, tax inspection, prisoner release, and payment of fines.

Download or read book Business Risk and Simulation Modelling in Practice written by Michael Rees and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-08-03 with total page 467 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The complete guide to the principles and practice of risk quantification for business applications. The assessment and quantification of risk provide an indispensable part of robust decision-making; to be effective, many professionals need a firm grasp of both the fundamental concepts and of the tools of the trade. Business Risk and Simulation Modelling in Practice is a comprehensive, in–depth, and practical guide that aims to help business risk managers, modelling analysts and general management to understand, conduct and use quantitative risk assessment and uncertainty modelling in their own situations. Key content areas include: Detailed descriptions of risk assessment processes, their objectives and uses, possible approaches to risk quantification, and their associated decision-benefits and organisational challenges. Principles and techniques in the design of risk models, including the similarities and differences with traditional financial models, and the enhancements that risk modelling can provide. In depth coverage of the principles and concepts in simulation methods, the statistical measurement of risk, the use and selection of probability distributions, the creation of dependency relationships, the alignment of risk modelling activities with general risk assessment processes, and a range of Excel modelling techniques. The implementation of simulation techniques using both Excel/VBA macros and the @RISK Excel add-in. Each platform may be appropriate depending on the context, whereas the core modelling concepts and risk assessment contexts are largely the same in each case. Some additional features and key benefits of using @RISK are also covered. Business Risk and Simulation Modelling in Practice reflects the author′s many years in training and consultancy in these areas. It provides clear and complete guidance, enhanced with an expert perspective. It uses approximately one hundred practical and real-life models to demonstrate all key concepts and techniques; these are accessible on the companion website.

Download or read book A Basic Introduction to Pollutant Fate and Transport written by Frank M. Dunnivant and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-02-17 with total page 504 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A uniquely accessible text on environmental modeling designed for both students and industry personnel Pollutant fate and modeling are becoming increasingly important in both regulatory and scientific areas. However,the complexity of the software and models often act as an inhibitor to the advancement of water quality science. A Basic Introduction to Pollutant Fate and Transport fills the need for a basic instructional tool for students and environmental professionals who lack the rigorous mathematical background necessary to derive the governing fate and transport equations. Taking a refreshingly simple approach to the subject that requires only a basic knowledge of algebra and first-year college chemistry, the book presents and integrates all of the aspects of fate and transport, including chemistry, modeling, risk assessment, and relevant environmental legislation; approaching each topic first conceptually before introducing the math necessary to model it. The first half of the book is dedicated to the chemistry and physics behind the fate and transport models, while the second half teaches and reinforces the logical concepts underlying fate and transport modeling. This better prepares students for support jobs in the environmental arena surrounding chemical industry and Superfund sites. Contributing to the book's ease of use are: An extremely user-friendly software program, Fate, which uses basic models to predict the fate and transport of pollutants in lakes, rivers, groundwater, and atmospheric systems The use of "canned" models to evaluate the importance of model parameters and sensitivity analysis A wealth of easy-to-understand examples and problems A chapter on environmental legislation in the United States and Europe A set of lab exercises, as well as a downloadable set of teaching aids A much-needed basic text for contemporary hydrology or environmental chemistry courses and support courses forthe environmental industry, this is a valuable desk reference for educators and industry professionals.

Download or read book The Banker s Handbook on Credit Risk written by Morton Glantz and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2008-04-23 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Banker's Handbook on Credit Risk shows you how to comply with Basel II regulations on credit risk step by step, building on the basics in credit risk up to advanced credit risk methodologies. This advanced credit/risk management book takes a "new tools" approach to Basel II implementation. The hands-on applications covered in this book are vast, including areas of Basel II banking risk requirements (credit risk, credit spreads, default risk, value at risk, market risk, and so forth) and financial analysis (exotic options and valuation), to risk analysis (stochastic forecasting, risk-based Monte Carlo simulation, portfolio optimization) and real options analysis (strategic options and decision analysis). This book is targeted at banking practitioners and financial analysts who require the algorithms, examples, models, and insights in solving more advanced and even esoteric problems. The book comes complete with a DVD filled with sample modeling videos, case studies, and software applications to help the reader get started immediately. The various trial software applications included allows the reader to quickly access the approximately 670 modeling functions, 250 analytical model templates, and powerful risk-based simulation software to help in the understanding and learning of the concepts covered in the book, and also to use the embedded functions and algorithms in their own models. In addition, the reader can get started quickly in running risk-based Monte Carlo simulations, run advanced forecasting methods, and perform optimization on a myriad of situations, as well as structure and solve customized real options and financial options problems. - Only book to show bankers step by step how to comply with Basel II regulations on credit risk - Over 150 hands-on software applications included on the DVD accompanying the book, including sample modeling videos - Provides all the latest quantitative tools

Download or read book Loss Models written by Stuart A. Klugman and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-01-25 with total page 758 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An update of one of the most trusted books on constructing and analyzing actuarial models Written by three renowned authorities in the actuarial field, Loss Models, Third Edition upholds the reputation for excellence that has made this book required reading for the Society of Actuaries (SOA) and Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) qualification examinations. This update serves as a complete presentation of statistical methods for measuring risk and building models to measure loss in real-world events. This book maintains an approach to modeling and forecasting that utilizes tools related to risk theory, loss distributions, and survival models. Random variables, basic distributional quantities, the recursive method, and techniques for classifying and creating distributions are also discussed. Both parametric and non-parametric estimation methods are thoroughly covered along with advice for choosing an appropriate model. Features of the Third Edition include: Extended discussion of risk management and risk measures, including Tail-Value-at-Risk (TVaR) New sections on extreme value distributions and their estimation Inclusion of homogeneous, nonhomogeneous, and mixed Poisson processes Expanded coverage of copula models and their estimation Additional treatment of methods for constructing confidence regions when there is more than one parameter The book continues to distinguish itself by providing over 400 exercises that have appeared on previous SOA and CAS examinations. Intriguing examples from the fields of insurance and business are discussed throughout, and all data sets are available on the book's FTP site, along with programs that assist with conducting loss model analysis. Loss Models, Third Edition is an essential resource for students and aspiring actuaries who are preparing to take the SOA and CAS preliminary examinations. It is also a must-have reference for professional actuaries, graduate students in the actuarial field, and anyone who works with loss and risk models in their everyday work. To explore our additional offerings in actuarial exam preparation visit www.wiley.com/go/actuarialexamprep.

Download or read book Credit Derivatives Pricing Models written by Philipp J. Schönbucher and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-10-31 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The credit derivatives market is booming and, for the first time, expanding into the banking sector which previously has had very little exposure to quantitative modeling. This phenomenon has forced a large number of professionals to confront this issue for the first time. Credit Derivatives Pricing Models provides an extremely comprehensive overview of the most current areas in credit risk modeling as applied to the pricing of credit derivatives. As one of the first books to uniquely focus on pricing, this title is also an excellent complement to other books on the application of credit derivatives. Based on proven techniques that have been tested time and again, this comprehensive resource provides readers with the knowledge and guidance to effectively use credit derivatives pricing models. Filled with relevant examples that are applied to real-world pricing problems, Credit Derivatives Pricing Models paves a clear path for a better understanding of this complex issue. Dr. Philipp J. Schönbucher is a professor at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, and has degrees in mathematics from Oxford University and a PhD in economics from Bonn University. He has taught various training courses organized by ICM and CIFT, and lectured at risk conferences for practitioners on credit derivatives pricing, credit risk modeling, and implementation.