Download or read book Modeling Common Cause Failures in Probabilistic Risk Assessment written by A. Mosleh and published by . This book was released on 1998-12-01 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Guidelines on Modeling Common cause Failures in Probabilistic Risk Assessment written by A. Mosleh and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Guidelines On Modeling Common Cause Failures In Probabilistic Risk Assessment NUREG CR 5485 U S Nuclear Regulatory Commission written by and published by . This book was released on 1999* with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Common Cause Failure Analysis in Event Assessment written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper describes the approach taken by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to the treatment of common-cause failure in probabilistic risk assessment of operational events. The approach is based upon the Basic Parameter Model for common-cause failure, and examples are illustrated using the alpha-factor parameterization, the approach adopted by the NRC in their Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models. The cases of a failed component (with and without shared common-cause failure potential) and a component being unavailable due to preventive maintenance or testing are addressed. The treatment of two related failure modes (e.g., failure to start and failure to run) is a new feature of this paper. These methods are being applied by the NRC in assessing the risk significance of operational events for the Significance Determination Process (SDP) and the Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program.
Download or read book Common Cause Failure Treatment in Event Assessment written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Event assessment is an application of probabilistic risk assessment in which observed equipment failures and outages are mapped into the risk model to obtain a numerical estimate of the event's risk significance. In this paper, we focus on retrospective assessments to estimate the risk significance of degraded conditions such as equipment failure accompanied by a deficiency in a process such as maintenance practices. In modeling such events, the basic events in the risk model that are associated with observed failures and other off-normal situations are typically configured to be failed, while those associated with observed successes and unchallenged components are assumed capable of failing, typically with their baseline probabilities. This is referred to as the failure memory approach to event assessment. The conditioning of common-cause failure probabilities for the common cause component group associated with the observed component failure is particularly important, as it is insufficient to simply leave these probabilities at their baseline values, and doing so may result in a significant underestimate of risk significance for the event. Past work in this area has focused on the mathematics of the adjustment. In this paper, we review the Basic Parameter Model for common-cause failure, which underlies most current risk modelling, discuss the limitations of this model with respect to event assessment, and introduce a proposed new framework for common-cause failure, which uses a Bayesian network to model underlying causes of failure, and which has the potential to overcome the limitations of the Basic Parameter Model with respect to event assessment.
Download or read book Probabilistic Risk Analysis written by Tim Bedford and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2001-04-30 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A graduate level textbook on probabilistic risk analysis, aimed at statisticians, operations researchers and engineers.
Download or read book Probabilistic Risk Assessment written by Ernest J. Henley and published by Institute of Electrical & Electronics Engineers(IEEE). This book was released on 1992 with total page 594 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Management for Engineers and Scientists written by Hiromitsu Kumamoto and published by Institute of Electrical & Electronics Engineers(IEEE). This book was released on 1996 with total page 626 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the demands of government agencies and insurance companies escalate, societal risk assessment and management become increasingly critical to the development and use of engineered systems in the full range of industrial installations.
Download or read book NUREG CR written by U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management written by Cornelia Spitzer and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-01-04 with total page 3803 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A collection of papers presented at the PSAM 7 – ESREL ’04 conference in June 2004, reflecting a wide variety of disciplines, such as principles and theory of reliability and risk analysis, systems modelling and simulation, consequence assessment, human and organisational factors, structural reliability methods, software reliability and safety, insights and lessons from risk studies and management/decision making. This volume covers both well-established practices and open issues in these fields, identifying areas where maturity has been reached and those where more development is needed.
Download or read book Advanced Seminar on Common Cause Failure Analysis in Probabilistic Safety Assessment written by Aniello Amendola and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 345 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Proceedings of the Ispra Course held at the Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy, November 16-19, 1987
Download or read book Probabilistic Assessment of Common Cause Failures in Nuclear Power Plants written by Shuo Yu and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 91 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Common cause failures (CCF) are a significant contributor to risk in complex technological systems, such as nuclear power plants. Many probabilistic parametric models have been developed to quantify the systems subject to the CCF. Existing models include the beta factor model, the multiple Greek letter model, the basic parameter model, the alpha factor model and the binomial failure rate model. These models are often only capable of providing a point estimate, when there are limited CCF data available. Some recent studies have proposed a Bayesian approach to quantify the uncertainties in CCF modeling, but they are limited in addressing the uncertainty in the common failure factors only. This thesis presents a multivariate Poisson model for CCF modeling, which combines the modeling of individual and common cause failures into one process. The key idea of the approach is that failures in a common cause component group of n components are decomposed into superposition of k (>n) independent Poisson processes. Empirical Bayes method is utilized for simultaneously estimating the independent and common cause failure rates which are mutually exclusive. In addition, the conventional CCF parameters can be evaluated using the outcomes of the new approach. Moreover, the uncertainties in the CCF modeling can also be addressed in an integrated manner. The failure rate is estimated as the mean value of the posterior density function while the variance of the posterior represents the variation of the estimate. A MATLAB program of the Monte Carlo simulation was developed to check the behavior of the proposed multivariate Poisson (MVP) model. Superiority over the traditional CCF models has been illustrated. Furthermore, due to the rarity of the CCF data observed at one nuclear power plant, data of the target plant alone are insufficient to produce reliable estimates of the failure rates. Data mapping has been developed to make use of the data from source plants of different sizes. In this thesis, data mapping is combined with EB approach to partially assimilate information from source plants and also respect the data of the target plant. Two case studies are presented using different database. The results are compared to the empirical values provided by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC).
Download or read book Accident Precursor Analysis and Management written by National Academy of Engineering and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2004-09-16 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the aftermath of catastrophes, it is common to find prior indicators, missed signals, and dismissed alerts that, had they been recognized and appropriately managed before the event, could have resulted in the undesired event being averted. These indicators are typically called "precursors." Accident Precursor Analysis and Management: Reducing Technological Risk Through Diligence documents various industrial and academic approaches to detecting, analyzing, and benefiting from accident precursors and examines public-sector and private-sector roles in the collection and use of precursor information. The book includes the analysis, findings and recommendations of the authoring NAE committee as well as eleven individually authored background papers on the opportunity of precursor analysis and management, risk assessment, risk management, and linking risk assessment and management.
Download or read book Computational Methods for Reliability and Risk Analysis written by Enrico Zio and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2009 with total page 363 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book illustrates a number of modelling and computational techniques for addressing relevant issues in reliability and risk analysis. In particular, it provides: i) a basic illustration of some methods used in reliability and risk analysis for modelling the stochastic failure and repair behaviour of systems, e.g. the Markov and Monte Carlo simulation methods; ii) an introduction to Genetic Algorithms, tailored to their application for RAMS (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Safety) optimization; iii) an introduction to key issues of system reliability and risk analysis, like dependent failures and importance measures; and iv) a presentation of the issue of uncertainty and of the techniques of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis used in support of reliability and risk analysis.The book provides a technical basis for senior undergraduate or graduate courses and a reference for researchers and practitioners in the field of reliability and risk analysis. Several practical examples are included to demonstrate the application of the concepts and techniques in practice.
Download or read book Satisfying Safety Goals by Probabilistic Risk Assessment written by Hiromitsu Kumamoto and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-05-31 with total page 263 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a methodological approach to the goal-based safety design procedure that will soon be an international requirement. This is the first single volume book to describe how to satisfy safety goals by modern reliability engineering. Its focus is on the quantitative aspects of the international standards using a methodological approach. Case studies illustrate the methodologies presented.
Download or read book Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.
Download or read book Proceedings of the International ANS ENS Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment September 20 24 1981 Port Chester New York written by and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 578 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
