Download or read book Modeling Commodity Price Distributions and Estimating the Optimal Futures Hedge written by Richard Baillie and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Modeling Commodity Price Distribution and Estimating the Optimal Futures Hedge written by Richard T. Baillie and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Hedging with Commodity Futures written by Su Dai and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2013-11-12 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2013 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, grade: 1,7, University of Mannheim, language: English, abstract: The commodity futures contract is an agreement to deliver a specific amount of commodity at a future time . There are usually choices of deliverable grades, delivery locations and delivery dates. Hedging belongs to one of the fundamental functions of futures market. Futures can be used to help producers and buyers protect themselves from price risk arising from many factors. For instance, in crude oil commodities, price risk occurs due to disrupted oil supply as a consequence of political issues, increasing of demand in emerging markets, turnaround in energy policy from the fossil fuel to the solar and efficient energy, etc. By hedging with futures, producers and users can set the prices they will receive or pay within a fixed range. A hedger takes a short position if he/she sells futures contracts while owning the underlying commodity to be delivered; a long position if he/she purchases futures contracts. The commonly known basis is defined as the difference between the futures and spot prices, which is mostly time-varying and mean-reverting. Due to such basis risk, a naïve hedging (equal and opposite) is unlikely to be effective. With the popularity of commodity futures, how to determine and implement the optimal hedging strategy has become an important issue in the field of risk management. Hedging strategies have been intensively studied since the 1960s. One of the most popular approaches to hedging is to quantify risk as variance, known as minimum-variance (MV) hedging. This hedging strategy is based on Markowitz portfolio theory, resting on the result that “a weighted portfolio of two assets will have a variance lower than the weighted average variance of the two individual assets, as long as the two assets are not perfectly and positively correlated.” MV strategy is quite well accepted, however, it ignores the expected return of the hedged portfolio and the risk preference of investors. Other hedging models with different objective functions have been studied intensively in hedging literature. Due to the conceptual simplicity, the value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (C)VaR have been adopted as the hedging risk objective function. [...]

Download or read book Handbook of Recent Advances in Commodity and Financial Modeling written by Giorgio Consigli and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-09-30 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook includes contributions related to optimization, pricing and valuation problems, risk modeling and decision making problems arising in global financial and commodity markets from the perspective of Operations Research and Management Science. The book is structured in three parts, emphasizing common methodological approaches arising in the areas of interest: - Part I: Optimization techniques - Part II: Pricing and Valuation - Part III: Risk Modeling The book presents to a wide community of Academics and Practitioners a selection of theoretical and applied contributions on topics that have recently attracted increasing interest in commodity and financial markets. Within a structure based on the three parts, it presents recent state-of-the-art and original works related to: - The adoption of multi-criteria and dynamic optimization approaches in financial and insurance markets in presence of market stress and growing systemic risk; - Decision paradigms, based on behavioral finance or factor-based, or more classical stochastic optimization techniques, applied to portfolio selection problems including new asset classes such as alternative investments; - Risk measurement methodologies, including model risk assessment, recently applied to energy spot and future markets and new risk measures recently proposed to evaluate risk-reward trade-offs in global financial and commodity markets; and derivatives portfolio hedging and pricing methods recently put forward in the financial community in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.

Download or read book Commodities written by M. A. H. Dempster and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2022-12-09 with total page 864 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since a major source of income for many countries comes from exporting commodities, price discovery and information transmission between commodity futures markets are key issues for continued economic development. Commodities: Fundamental Theory of Futures, Forwards, and Derivatives Pricing, Second Edition covers the fundamental theory of and derivatives pricing for major commodity markets, as well as the interaction between commodity prices, the real economy, and other financial markets. After a thoroughly updated and extensive theoretical and practical introduction, this new edition of the book is divided into five parts – the fifth of which is entirely new material covering cutting-edge developments. Oil Products considers the structural changes in the demand and supply for hedging services that are increasingly determining the price of oil Other Commodities examines markets related to agricultural commodities, including natural gas, wine, soybeans, corn, gold, silver, copper, and other metals Commodity Prices and Financial Markets investigates the contemporary aspects of the financialization of commodities, including stocks, bonds, futures, currency markets, index products, and exchange traded funds Electricity Markets supplies an overview of the current and future modelling of electricity markets Contemporary Topics discuss rough volatility, order book trading, cryptocurrencies, text mining for price dynamics and flash crashes

Download or read book Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-31 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.

Download or read book Three Essays In Commodity Price Dynamics written by Amal Dabbous and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 121 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis consists of three essays in commodity price dynamics. In the first essay, we embed a staggered price feature into the speculative storage model of Deaton and Laroque (1996). Intermediate goods inventory speculators are added as an additional source of intertemporal linkage which helps us to replicate the stylized facts of the observed commodity price dynamics. The staggered pricing mechanism adopted in this paper can be viewed as a parsimonious way of approximating various types of frictions that increase the degree of persistence in the first two conditional moments of commodity prices. The structural parameters of our model are estimated by simulated method of moments using actual prices for four agricultural commodities. Simulated data are then employed to assess the effects of our staggered price approach on the time series properties of commodity prices. Our results lend empirical support to the possibility of staggered prices. The second essay investigates the determinants of the percentage change in commodity prices. We apply the dynamic Gordon growth model technique and conduct the variance decomposition for the percentage change in spot commodity prices to 6 agricultural commodities. The model explains the percentage change in spot commodity prices in terms of the expected present discounted values of interest rate, yield spread, open interest and convenience yield. Empirical results indicate that the model is successful in capturing a large proportion of the variability in the 6 agricultural commodity prices. Moreover, we show that yield spread and open interest help predicting changes in commodity prices. Finally, the third essay evaluates different hedging strategies for eleven commodities. In addition to the traditional regression hedge ratio model (OLS) and the vector error correction model (VECM), we estimate dynamic hedge ratios using the conventional dynamic conditional correlation model (DCC) of Engle (2002) and the diagonal BEKK model (DBEKK) of Engle and Kroner (1995). Moreover, we propose two more advanced models, the DCC model and the DBEKK model that will account for the impact of the growth rate of open interest on market’s volatility and co-movements of commodity spot and futures returns. The empirical analysis shows that adding the growth rate of open interest improves the in-sample hedging effectiveness of the DCC model. Furthermore, the out-of-sample hedging exercise empirical results show that static models present the best out-of-sample hedging performance for 5 of the commodities. The DCC model presents the smallest basis variance for 4 of the commodities. The DBEKK model with the growth rate of open interest performs the best in terms of the basis variance reduction for corn and wheat. Our out-of-sample empirical findings provide important implications for futures hedging and highlight the fact that the use of static models to determine the optimal hedge ratio could be more effective than the use of dynamic hedge ratio models.

Download or read book Three Essays on Agricultural Price Volatility written by Yiyong Yuan and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The three essays of this dissertation cover issues of understanding and managing price uncertainty across the meat value chain and related futures market. The first essay discussed the implications of recent change in retailing industry's pricing strategy; the second essay described a State Space Model approach estimation of the joint distribution of cash-futures prices and a simulation-based Conditional-VaR approach determination of optimal futures exposure determination in contrast with minimum variance hedge ratio when preference free optimal hedge ratio does not exist; the third essay described the empirical changes in the hog price volatility summarized by a series of long memory GARCH model of the absolute return series in view of the recent industry structural change. The first essay investigated the impact of two coexisting retail price strategies for selling perishable products on the volatility of both the farm-level price and the retailer's margin. The two strategies included the traditional High-Low strategy and the Every-Day-Low-Price (EDLP) pricing strategy. In contrast to non-perishable consumer products, perishable products, which are often of very inelastic demand, obtain their price fluctuations mainly through supply side shocks. A two-retailer model was developed to examine the volatilities of grocery retailers' margin and producer price due to supply shocks for a perishable product. Results indicated a volatility difference exists between EDLP and High-Low retailers' marginal revenue when the two pricing strategies coexist, and as the market share of EDLP format increases this margin volatility difference deepens and farm-level price volatility also increases. The second essay proposed a state space model based estimation of the cash-futures price dependence relationship and a coherent C-VaR-approach optimal futures exposure determination based on simulated data in response to situations where the preference-free optimal hedge ratio no longer exists and the minimum variance hedge ratio is not appropriate. The State Space Model serves as an alternative method to other joint distribution estimation methods. The determined optimal futures exposure showed that the minimum variance hedge ratio discourages hedging. Parallel analyses using existing constant minimum conditional variance (MCV) hedge ratio models and a time-varying MCV ratio based on Multivariate GARCH models was also conducted for comparison. The C-VaR approach optimal futures position exposure reported different optimal futures positions for the "short hedge" and the "long hedge" situations. The third essay analyzed the historical change of the realized price volatility defined as the weekly hog price absolute return from 1973 to 2008 using long memory effect in the mean and variance process. The ARFIMA-FIGARCH/IGARCH Model results confirmed a significant long memory effect in the absolute return for a period around the end of the 1990s with documented structural change. I found no significant long memory effect for any other period. The model result also showed a significant ARCH-M effect that is explained as a fierce industry structural adjustment leading to a more dramatic price volatility change.

Download or read book Nonparametric Econometrics written by Qi Li and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-09 with total page 769 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive, up-to-date textbook on nonparametric methods for students and researchers Until now, students and researchers in nonparametric and semiparametric statistics and econometrics have had to turn to the latest journal articles to keep pace with these emerging methods of economic analysis. Nonparametric Econometrics fills a major gap by gathering together the most up-to-date theory and techniques and presenting them in a remarkably straightforward and accessible format. The empirical tests, data, and exercises included in this textbook help make it the ideal introduction for graduate students and an indispensable resource for researchers. Nonparametric and semiparametric methods have attracted a great deal of attention from statisticians in recent decades. While the majority of existing books on the subject operate from the presumption that the underlying data is strictly continuous in nature, more often than not social scientists deal with categorical data—nominal and ordinal—in applied settings. The conventional nonparametric approach to dealing with the presence of discrete variables is acknowledged to be unsatisfactory. This book is tailored to the needs of applied econometricians and social scientists. Qi Li and Jeffrey Racine emphasize nonparametric techniques suited to the rich array of data types—continuous, nominal, and ordinal—within one coherent framework. They also emphasize the properties of nonparametric estimators in the presence of potentially irrelevant variables. Nonparametric Econometrics covers all the material necessary to understand and apply nonparametric methods for real-world problems.

Download or read book Applied Commodity Price Analysis Forecasting and Market Risk Management written by NCR-134 (Committee : U.S.). Conference and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 454 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices written by Walter C. Labys and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-03-02 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.

Download or read book Dynamic Copulas for Finance written by Valentin Braun and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2011 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The interactions of financial securities are crucial to determine possible portfolio losses. Although this fact is well understood, two questions remain: What causes changes in the dependence structure of financial assets? How can fluctuating dependencies be measured? The most common approach to identify the amplitude of financial assets' interactions are linear correlation coefficients. However, they fail to comprise shifts in the dependence structure. Alternatively, Copulas are a more flexible dependence measurement. This book focuses on the development of Dynamic Copula frameworks by implementing stochastic parameters into Archimedian and Elliptical Copula functions. In contrast to static correlation measures, the Dynamic Copulas are able to replicate unstable financial market interactions. Various Dynamic Copulas are applied to global stock, bond, commodity and exchange rate data to calculate the correlation time paths, which explain financial market reactions to economic shocks. Furthermore, the interactions of dependencies, volatility and returns are analyzed, to determine the efficiency of portfolio diversification in regards to wealth protection. Portfolio risks are estimated through Dynamic Copulas to demonstrate their abilities to replicate financial market interactions accurately. Additionally, this analysis reveals the impact of changing dependence intensities on the magnitude of possible portfolio losses. Finally, the Dynamic Copulas are utilized to allocate higher moment optimal portfolios. This examination emphasizes the effect of inaccurate correlation estimates on the portfolio choice.

Download or read book Energy and Power Risk Management written by Alexander Eydeland and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-02-03 with total page 506 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for Energy and Power Risk Management "Energy and Power Risk Management identifies and addresses the key issues in the development of the turbulent energy industry and the challenges it poses to market players. An insightful and far-reaching book written by two renowned professionals." -Helyette Geman, Professor of Finance University Paris Dauphine and ESSEC "The most up-to-date and comprehensive book on managing energy price risk in the natural gas and power markets. An absolute imperative for energy traders and energy risk management professionals." -Vincent Kaminski, Managing Director Citadel Investment Group LLC "Eydeland and Wolyniec's work does an excellent job of outlining the methods needed to measure and manage risk in the volatile energy market." -Gerald G. Fleming, Vice President, Head of East Power Trading, TXU Energy Trading "This book combines academic rigor with real-world practicality. It is a must-read for anyone in energy risk management or asset valuation." -Ron Erd, Senior Vice President American Electric Power

Download or read book Commodities and Commodity Derivatives written by Helyette Geman and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-09-24 with total page 479 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The last few years have been a watershed for the commodities, cash and derivatives industry. New regulations and products have led to an explosion in the commodities markets, creating a new asset for investors that includes hedge funds as well as University endowments, and has resulted in a spectacular growth in spot and derivative trading. This book covers hard and soft commodities (energy, agriculture and metals) and analyses: Economic and geopolitical issues in commodities markets Commodity price and volume risk Stochastic modelling of commodity spot prices and forward curves Real options valuation and hedging of physical assets in the energy industry It is required reading for energy companies and utilities practitioners, commodity cash and derivatives traders in investment banks, the Agrifood business, Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) and Hedge Funds. In Commodities and Commodity Derivatives, Hélyette Geman shows her powerful command of the subject by combining a rigorous development of its mathematical modelling with a compact institutional presentation of the arcane characteristics of commodities that makes the complex analysis of commodities derivative securities accessible to both the academic and practitioner who wants a deep foundation and a breadth of different market applications. It is destined to be a "must have" on the subject.” —Robert Merton, Professor, Harvard Business School "A marvelously comprehensive book of interest to academics and practitioners alike, by one of the world's foremost experts in the field." —Oldrich Vasicek, founder, KMV

Download or read book The Mathematics of Money Management written by Ralph Vince and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1992-08-04 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Every futures, options, and stock markets trader operates under a set of highly suspect rules and assumptions. Are you risking your career on yours? Exceptionally clear and easy to use, The Mathematics of Money Management substitutes precise mathematical modeling for the subjective decision-making processes many traders and serious investors depend on. Step-by-step, it unveils powerful strategies for creating and using key money management formulas--based on the rules of probability and modern portfolio theory--that maximizes the potential gains for the level of risk you are assuming. With them, you'll determine the payoffs and consequences of any potential trading decision and obtain the highest potential growth for your specified level of risk. You'll quickly decide: What markets to trade in and at what quantities When to add or subtract funds from an account How to reinvest trading profits for maximum yield The Mathematics of Money Management provides the missing element in modern portfolio theory that weds optimal f to the optimal portfolio.

Download or read book Stock Index Futures written by Charles M.S. Sutcliffe and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-01-18 with total page 844 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global value of trading in index futures is about $20 trillion per year and rising and for many countries the value traded is similar to that traded on their stock markets. This book describes how index futures markets work and clearly summarises the substantial body of international empirical evidence relating to these markets. Using the concepts and tools of finance, the book also provides a comprehensive description of the economic forces that underlie trading in index futures. Stock Index Futures 3/e contains many teaching and learning aids including numerous examples, a glossary, essay questions, comprehensive references, and a detailed subject index. Written primarily for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students, this text will also be useful to researchers and market participants who want to gain a better understanding of these markets.

Download or read book Derivatives Pricing and Modeling written by Jonathan Batten and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2012-07-02 with total page 446 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Highlights research in derivatives modelling and markets in a post-crisis world across a number of dimensions or themes. This book addresses the following main areas: derivatives models and pricing, model application and performance backtesting, and new products and market features.