Download or read book Modeling Climate Mitigation and Adaptation Policies to Predict Their Effectiveness written by Alexandre Marcellesi and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Download or read book Climate Science for Serving Society written by Ghassem R. Asrar and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-18 with total page 506 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume offers a comprehensive survey and a close analysis of efforts to develop actionable climate information in support of vital decisions for climate adaptation, risk management and policy. Arising from submissions and discussion at the 2011 Open Science Conference (OSC) of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), the book addresses research and intellectual challenges which span the full range of Program activities.
Download or read book New Directions in Climate Change Vulnerability Impacts and Adaptation Assessment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2009-03-17 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With effective climate change mitigation policies still under development, and with even the most aggressive proposals unable to halt climate change immediately, many decision makers are focusing unprecedented attention on the need for strategies to adapt to climate changes that are now unavoidable. The effects of climate change will touch every corner of the world's economies and societies; adaptation is inevitable. The remaining question is to what extent humans will anticipate and reduce undesired consequences of climate change, or postpone response until after climate change impacts have altered ecological and socioeconomic systems so significantly that opportunities for adaptation become limited. This book summarizes a National Research Council workshop at which presentations and discussion identified specific needs associated with this gap between the demand and supply of scientific information about climate change adaptation.
Download or read book Advancing the Science of Climate Change written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-01-10 with total page 526 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for-and in many cases is already affecting-a broad range of human and natural systems. The compelling case for these conclusions is provided in Advancing the Science of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested suite of studies known as America's Climate Choices. While noting that there is always more to learn and that the scientific process is never closed, the book shows that hypotheses about climate change are supported by multiple lines of evidence and have stood firm in the face of serious debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. As decision makers respond to these risks, the nation's scientific enterprise can contribute through research that improves understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change and also is useful to decision makers at the local, regional, national, and international levels. The book identifies decisions being made in 12 sectors, ranging from agriculture to transportation, to identify decisions being made in response to climate change. Advancing the Science of Climate Change calls for a single federal entity or program to coordinate a national, multidisciplinary research effort aimed at improving both understanding and responses to climate change. Seven cross-cutting research themes are identified to support this scientific enterprise. In addition, leaders of federal climate research should redouble efforts to deploy a comprehensive climate observing system, improve climate models and other analytical tools, invest in human capital, and improve linkages between research and decisions by forming partnerships with action-oriented programs.
Download or read book Climate Adaptation Modelling written by Claus Kondrup and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-01-31 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on an issue only marginally tackled by this literature: the still existing gap between adaptation science and modelling and the possibility to effectively access and exploit the information produced by policy making at different levels, international, national and local. To do so, the book presents the proceedings of a high-level expert workshop on adaptation modelling, integrated with main results from the “Study on Adaptation Modelling” (SAM-PS) commissioned by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Climate Action (DG CLIMA) and implemented by the CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change, in collaboration with the Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Deltares, and Paul Watkiss Associates (PWA). What is the latest development in adaptation modelling? Which tools and information are available for adaptation assessment? How much are they practically usable by the policy community? How their uptake by practitioners can be improved? What are the major research gaps in adaptation modelling that needs to be covered in the next future? How? This book addresses these questions presenting the results of a study on adaptation modelling commissioned by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Climate Action (DG CLIMA) enriched by the outcomes of a high-level expert workshop on adaptation also part of the research. This book aspires to provide a useful support to academics, policy makers and practitioners in the field of adaptation to orient them in the expanding adaptation modelling assessment literature and suggest practical ways for its application. This book, mainly addressed to academics, policy makers and practitioners in the field of adaptation, aims to providing orientation in the large and expanding methodological/quantitative literature, presenting novelties, guiding in the practical application of adaptation assessments and suggesting lines for future research. This open access book focuses on an issue only marginally tackled by this literature: the still existing gap between adaptation science and modelling and the possibility to effectively access and exploit the information produced by policy making at different levels, international, national and local. To do so, the book presents the proceedings of a high-level expert workshop on adaptation modelling, integrated with main results from the “Study on Adaptation Modelling” (SAM-PS) commissioned by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Climate Action (DG CLIMA) and implemented by the CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change, in collaboration with the Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Deltares, and Paul Watkiss Associates (PWA).
Download or read book Improving the Effectiveness of U S Climate Modeling written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2001-05-18 with total page 145 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Information derived from climate modeling has become increasingly important in recent years. More and more we understand that climate variability and change impacts society and that dealing with climate-related disasters, conflicts, and opportunities requires the best possible information about the past, present, and future of the climate system. To this end, Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling describes ways to improve the efficacy of the U.S. climate modeling enterprise, given the current needs and resources. It discusses enhanced and stable resources for modeling activities, focused and centralized operational activities, how to give researchers access to the best computing facilities, the creation of a common modeling and data infrastructure, and research studies on the socioeconomic aspects of climate and climate modeling.
Download or read book A framework for the quantification and economic valuation of health outcomes originating from health and non health climate change mitigation and adaptation action written by World Health Organization and published by World Health Organization. This book was released on 2023-05-02 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report presents a framework to link science, policy and practice for a comprehensive assessment of climate mitigation and adaptation investments and their impact on human health.The framework proposes to use weather and climate data to forecast health impacts over time, as well as biophysical and economic models to quantify the outcomes of investments in climate change adaptation and mitigation for relevant sectoral indicators and health co-benefits. It provides guidance on the economic valuation of health co-benefits of climate action, for inclusion in sector-specific cost–benefit analysis (CBA), including the spatial allocation of such costs and benefits. The framework developed and presented in this study is comprehensive, and provides various entry points for different audiences, including decision-makers in the public and private sectors, researchers and scientists, working in the health sector as well as in other thematic areas and related sectors affected by climate action.
Download or read book Climate Modelling written by Elisabeth A. Lloyd and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-02-13 with total page 519 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edited collection of works by leading climate scientists and philosophers introduces readers to issues in the foundations, evaluation, confirmation, and application of climate models. It engages with important topics directly affecting public policy, including the role of doubt, the use of satellite data, and the robustness of models. Climate Modelling provides an early and significant contribution to the burgeoning Philosophy of Climate Science field that will help to shape our understanding of these topics in both philosophy and the wider scientific context. It offers insight into the reasons we should believe what climate models say about the world but addresses the issues that inform how reliable and well-confirmed these models are. This book will be of interest to students of climate science, philosophy of science, and of particular relevance to policy makers who depend on the models that forecast future states of the climate and ocean in order to make public policy decisions.
Download or read book Modeling Uncertain Climate Impacts and Adaptation for the Integrated Assessment of Carbon Policy written by Delavane Byars Diaz and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Carbon mitigation policies should be designed to balance the costs of reducing emissions and the benefits of avoided climate change. However, both costs and benefits are challenging to characterize because of pervasive uncertainty and complex inter actions among important physical, natural, and human systems. This dissertation reviews, assesses, and seeks to improve the representation of the benefits in the cost benefit oriented integrated assessment models (IAMs) used for global assessment and climate policy analysis. One prominent measure of these benefits is the social cost of carbon (SCC), a monetary estimate of the climate change damages to society from an additional emission of carbon dioxide (CO2). The opening dissertation research project presents the first in-depth model diagnostic and inter-comparison examination of the three IAMs used to quantify the US Government SCC -- DICE, FUND, and PAGE -- to reveal how each model uniquely determines damages from climate change. This study's diagnostic analysis improves public understanding of the SCC, informs future SCC estimation, and identifies research priorities for climate impacts modeling that will be addressed in the remainder of the dissertation. The subsequent studies focus on climate impacts of sea level rise (SLR). The second dissertation project presents a new model to inform global estimates of coastal impacts, the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM). CIAM improves the credibility of coastal impact estimates along many analytical and empirical dimensions: geographical scope, spatial resolution, temporal dynamics, and the inclusion of optimal local adaptation, uncertain flooding from storm surge extremes, wetland loss, and the effects of relative SLR. While the CIAM approach informs incremental climate change damage estimates, these are not the only factor in carbon mitigation policy design. Another important consideration is the risk of uncertain and potentially irreversible catastrophes, which have not yet been well incorporated into IAMs. The final project of this dissertation presents a multistage stochastic programming framework for modeling climate catastrophes with endogenous uncertainty, applied to a benchmark IAM. The specific catastrophe considered is the uncertain collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), characterized in accordance with recent expert elicitations, empirical results, physical relationships, and economic consequences, as represented with the both the DICE and CIAM coastal damage functions. The stochastic DICE-WAIS model introduced here investigates the optimal policy response to the ice sheet collapse threat.
Download or read book Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change written by Joel B. Smith and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1996-06-30 with total page 422 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To assist developing countries and countries with economies in transition to meet this obligation, the U.S. Country Studies Program is providing technical and financial support for the development of climate change studies in 55 countries. This document presents preliminary results from the vulnerability and adaptation assessment research of 13 of the countries that were ready to share their results. The countries contributing to this document are from the African, Asian-Pacific, Eastern European, and Latin American regions, and their assessments address impacts in the agriculture, grasslands, forest, water resources, and coastal resources sectors. This document includes results from many countries for which there was no prior research on the potential impacts of climate change, or for which the research has not previously been widely available. This work will not only fill gaps in the understanding of the potential impacts of climate change and the effectiveness of adaptation strategies, it will also help develop a consensus on appropriate methodologies and needs for refinement to currently available methodologies.
Download or read book Scientific Integrity and Public Trust written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Science. Subcommittee on Energy and Environment and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 1200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Climate Change and Policy written by Gabriele Gramelsberger and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-03-30 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The debate on how mankind should respond to climate change is diverse, as the appropriate strategy depends on global as well as local circumstances. As scientists are denied the possibility of conducting experiments with the real climate, only climate models can give insights into man-induced climate change, by experimenting with digital climates under varying conditions and by extrapolating past and future states into the future. But the ‘nature’ of models is a purely representational one. A model is good if it is believed to represent the relevant processes of a natural system well. However, a model and its results, in particular in the case of climate models which interconnect countless hypotheses, is only to some extent testable, although an advanced infrastructure of evaluation strategies has been developed involving strategies of model intercomparison, ensemble prognoses, uncertainty metrics on the system and component levels. The complexity of climate models goes hand in hand with uncertainties, but uncertainty is in conflict with socio-political expectations. However, certain predictions belong to the realm of desires and ideals rather than to applied science. Today’s attempt to define and classify uncertainty in terms of likelihood and confidence reflect this awareness of uncertainty as an integral part of human knowledge, in particular on knowledge about possible future developments. The contributions in this book give a first hand insight into scientific strategies in dealing with uncertainty by using simulation models and into social, political and economical requirements in future projections on climate change. Do these strategies and requirements meet each other or fail? The debate on how mankind should respond to climate change is diverse, as the appropriate strategy depends on global as well as local circumstances. As scientists are denied the possibility of conducting experiments with the real climate, only climate models can give insights into man-induced climate change, by experimenting with digital climates under varying conditions and by extrapolating past and future states into the future. But the 'nature' of models is a purely representational one. A model is good if it is believed to represent the relevant processes of a natural system well. However, a model and its results, in particular in the case of climate models which interconnect countless hypotheses, is only to some extent testable, although an advanced infrastructure of evaluation strategies has been developed involving strategies of model intercomparison, ensemble prognoses, uncertainty metrics on the system and component levels. The complexity of climate models goes hand in hand with uncertainties, but uncertainty is in conflict with socio-political expectations. However, certain predictions belong to the realm of desires and ideals rather than to applied science. Today's attempt to define and classify uncertainty in terms of likelihood and confidence reflect this awareness of uncertainty as an integral part of human knowledge, in particular on knowledge about possible future developments. The contributions in this book give a first hand insight into scientific strategies in dealing with uncertainty by using simulation models and into social, political and economical requirements in future projections on climate change. Do these strategies and requirements meet each other or fail? Gabriele Gramelsberger is Principal Investigator of the Collaborative Research Project is Principal Investigator of the Collaborative Research Project
Download or read book Successful Adaptation to Climate Change written by Susanne C. Moser and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-07-18 with total page 365 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What does successful adaptation look like? This is a question we are frequently asked by planners, policy makers and other professionals charged with the task of developing and implementing adaptation strategies. While adaptation is increasingly recognized as an important climate risk management strategy, and on-the-ground adaptation planning activity is becoming more common-place, there is no clear guidance as to what success would look like, what to aim for and how to judge progress. This edited volume makes significant progress toward unpacking the question of successful adaptation, offering both scientifically informed and practice-relevant answers from various sectors and regions of the world. It brings together 18 chapters from leading experts within the field to present careful analyses of different cases and situations, questioning throughout commonly avowed truisms and unspoken assumptions that have pervaded climate adaptation science and practice to date. This book offers not one answer but demonstrates how the question of success in important ways is normative and context specific. It identifies the various dimensions of success, such as economic, political, institutional, ecological, and social, explores the tensions between them, and compiles encouraging evidence that resolutions can be found. The book appraises how climatic and non-climatic stressors play a role, what role science does and can play in adaptation decision making, and how trade-offs and other concerns and priorities shape adaptation planning and implementation on the ground. This is timely interdisciplinary text sheds light on key issues that arise in on-the-ground adaptation to climate change. It bridges the gap between science and practical application of successful adaptation strategies and will be of interest to both students, academics and practitioners.
Download or read book Looking Beyond the Horizon written by William R. Sutton and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2013-04-04 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. In many countries, such as the four examined in Looking Beyond the Horizon, the risks of climate change are an immediate and fundamental problem because the majority of the rural population depends either directly or indirectly on agriculture for its livelihood. The risks of climate change to agriculture cannot be eff ectively dealt with--and the opportunities cannot be eff ectively exploited--without a clear plan for aligning agricultural policies with climate change, developing the capabilities of key agricultural institutions, and investing in infrastructure, support services, and on-farm improvements. Developing such a plan ideally involves a combination of high-quality quantitative analysis; consultation with key stakeholders, particularly farmers and local agricultural experts; and investments in both human and physical capital. The diverse experiences of Albania, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Moldova, and Uzbekistan, highlighted in this book, show that it is possible to develop a plan to meet these objectives--one that is comprehensive and empirically driven as well as consultative and quick to develop. The approach of this volume is predicated on strong country ownership and participation, and is defi ned by its emphasis on "win-win" or "no regrets" solutions to the multiple challenges posed by climate change for the farmers of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The solutions are measures that increase resilience to future climate change, boost current productivity despite the greater climate variability already occurring, and limit greenhouse gas emissions--also known as "climate-smart agriculture." Looking Beyond the Horizon draws on the experiences of applying this approach to these four nations in Eastern Europe and Central Asia with the goal of helping each country mainstream climate change adaptation into its agricultural policies, programs, and investments. The book also highlights the projected impacts of climate change on agriculture in these countries through forecast variations in temperature and rainfall patterns, which are crucial to farming, and off ers a map for navigating the risks and realizing the opportunities. Finally, a detailed e xplanation of the approach, as well as lessons learned from its implementation, is provided for those who would like to implement similar programs in other countries of Europe, Central Asia, or anywhere else in the world.
Download or read book Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change written by Ian Burton and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2004-11-15 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Adaptation is a process by which individuals, communities and countries seek to cope with the consequences of climate change. The process of adaptation is not new; the idea of incorporating future climate risk into policy-making is. While our understanding of climate change and its potential impacts has become clearer, the availability of practical guidance on adaptation has not kept pace. The development of the Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) is intended to help provide the rapidly evolving process of adaptation policy-making with a much-needed roadmap. Ultimately, the purpose of the APF is to support adaptation processes to protect - and enhance - human well-being in the face of climate change. This volume will be invaluable for everyone working on climate change adaptation and policy-making.
Download or read book Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources written by C. Fai Fung and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-07-05 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change on water availability and water resources management requires knowledge of climate, hydro(geo)logical and water resources models, and particularly the relationships between each of them. This book brings together world experts on each of these aspects, distilling each complex topic into concise and easy to understand chapters, in which both the uses and limitations of modelling are explored. The book concludes with a set of case studies using real-life examples to illustrate the steps required and the problems that can be faced in assessing the potential impacts of climate change on water resource systems. For students, scientists, engineers and decision-makers alike, this book provides an invaluable and critical look at the information that is provided by climate models, and the ways it is used in modelling water systems. A key focus is the exploration of how uncertainties may accrue at each stage of an impacts assessment, and the reliability of the resulting information. The book is a practical guide to understanding the opportunities and pitfalls in the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in the water resource sector.
