Download or read book Modeling and Forecasting Monthly Tourism Arrivals to Aruba Since COVID 19 Pandemic written by Olga Bespalova and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-11-11 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper improves short-term forecasting models of monthly tourism arrivals by estimating and evaluating a time-series model with exogenous regressors (ARIMA-X) using a case of Aruba, a small open tourism-dependent economy. Given importance of the US market for Aruba, it investigates informational value of Google Searches originating in the USA, flight capacity utilization on the US air-carriers, and per capita demand of the US consumers, given the volatility index in stock markets (VIX). It yields several insights. First, flight capacity is the best variable to account for the travel restrictions during the pandemic. Second, US real personal consumption expenditure becomes a more significnat predictor than income as the former better captured impact of the COVID-19 restrictions on the consumers’ behavior, while income boosted by the pandemic fiscal support was not fully directed to spending. Third, intercept correction improves the model in the estimation period. Finally, the pandemic changed econometric relationships between the tourism arrivals and their main determinants, and accuracy of the forecast models. Going forward, the analysts should re-estimate the models. Out-of-sample forecasts with 5 percent confidence intervals are produced for 18 months ahead.
Download or read book Tourism in the Post Pandemic World written by Ms.Manuela Goretti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-02-19 with total page 115 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This departmental paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in the Asia Pacific region, Latin America, and Caribbean countries. Many tourism dependent economies in these regions, including small states in the Pacific and the Caribbean, entered the pandemic with limited fiscal space, inadequate external buffers, and foreign exchange revenues extremely concentrated in tourism. The empirical analysis leverages on an augmented gravity model to draw lessons from past epidemics and finds that the impact of infectious diseases on tourism flows is much greater in developing countries than in advanced economies.
Download or read book Defying the Odds Remittances During the COVID 19 Pandemic written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-07-16 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an early assessment of the dynamics and drivers of remittances during the COVID-19 pandemic, using a newly compiled monthly remittance dataset for a sample of 52 countries, of which 16 countries with bilateral remittance data. The paper documents a strong resilience in remittance flows, notwithstanding an unprecedent global recession triggered by the pandemic. Using the local projection approach to estimate the impulse response functions of remittance flows during Jan 2020-Dec 2020, the paper provides evidence that: (i) remittances responded positively to COVID-19 infection rates in migrant home countries, underscoring its role as an important automatic stabilizer; (ii) stricter containment measures have the unintended consequence of dampening remittances; and (iii) a shift from informal to formal remittance channels due to travel restrictions appears to have also played a role in the surge in formal remittances. Lastly, the size of the fiscal stimulus in host countries is positively associated with remittances as the fiscal response cushions the economic impact of the pandemic.
Download or read book Cyprus written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-05-28 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cyprus: Selected Issues
Download or read book Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting written by Haiyan Song and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-08-21 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The phenomenal growth of both the world-wide tourism industry and academic interest in tourism over the last thirty years has generated great interest in tourism demand modelling and forecasting from both sectors. However, the tendency for researchers and practitioners engaged in quantitative causal tourism modelling and forecasting to run many regression equations and try to choose the 'best' model based on various parametric and non-parametric criteria has been widely criticised as failing to provide credible results. The aim of this book is to present the recent advances in econometric modelling methodology within the context of tourism demand analysis at a level that is accessible to non-specialists, and to illustrate these new developments with actual tourism applications. The book begins with an introduction to the fundamentals of tourism demand analysis, before addressing the problems of traditional tourism demand modelling and forecasting, i.e. data mining and spurious regression due to common trends in the time series. Three chapters explore the general-to-specific approach to tourism demand modelling and forecasting, including the use of autoregressive distributed lag processes, cointegration analysis and error correction models. The time varying parameter model together with the use of the Kalman filter as an estimation method is a useful tool for examining the effects of regime shifts on tourism demand elasticities: this is explored next. The panel data approach is introduced as a way of overcoming the problem of estimation and forecasting biases caused by insufficient time series data. The book concludes by evaluating the empirical forecasting performance of the various models and putting forward some general conclusions.
Download or read book Powering the Digital Economy Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Finance written by El Bachir Boukherouaa and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-22 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the impact of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the financial sector. It highlights the benefits these technologies bring in terms of financial deepening and efficiency, while raising concerns about its potential in widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The paper advances the discussion on the impact of this technology by distilling and categorizing the unique risks that it could pose to the integrity and stability of the financial system, policy challenges, and potential regulatory approaches. The evolving nature of this technology and its application in finance means that the full extent of its strengths and weaknesses is yet to be fully understood. Given the risk of unexpected pitfalls, countries will need to strengthen prudential oversight.
Download or read book International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2021 written by International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-04 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A recovery is underway, but the economic fallout from the global pandemic could be with us for years to come. With the crisis exacerbating prepandemic vulnerabilities, country prospects are diverging. Nearly half of emerging market and developing economies and some middle-income countries are now at risk of falling further behind, undoing much of the progress made toward achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
Download or read book Econometric Modeling and Forecasting written by Jagat Prirayani and published by . This book was released on 2017-11 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book serves as a reference guide to econometrics modelling and forecasting. The book is divided into two parts i.e. Modelling and Forecasting, to make it easy for the reader to understand the topic.The first part of the book i.e. Modelling, throws light on the various econometric models. The models are very well explained to make it easier for anyone reading the book to grasp the concept. Various mathematical and statistical tools used with reference to econometrics models are also discussed. Chapter 4 discusses hypothesis testing which is of paramount importance in any research and will also act as a base for the next part of the book i.e. Forecasting. Various basic tests, which are used for hypothesis testing are also included in the chapter.The second part of the book i.e. Forecasting includes several different concepts such as forecasting principles, forecasting classification, forecasting accuracy evaluation and its industrial applications in depth. The concepts are enriched with relevant case studies. The case studies have been specially selected for the better understanding of the concepts. The book is written with a vision to guide the reader on structuring a forecasting problem. The book provides the necessary information to the reader so that the reader can design various forecasting methods and evaluate them efficiently. It answers important questions such as: * How to implement various forecasting methods in different situations and with different variables?* When to accept or reject the forecasts? The book takes the readers through a variety of forecasting methods, with a strong discussion on their strengths and weaknesses, and an analysis on how to use them efficiently. The book has been written with the objective of helping the readers/researchers select the most appropriate method for a given forecasting problem and ultimately, evaluate the chosen forecasting model. This is useful especially when selection of the most appropriate method for a particular situation is the most important criterion. This book also suggests what research on forecasting methods will have the greatest, and the least, payoff. Research on forecasting has grown in importance to a great extent in recent times due to the fact that application of forecasting techniques has been growing rapidly in the areas of the social, behavioral and management sciences. So much is known about forecasting methods, but little is applied. Why? Because what is known in one field is unknown in another or because it frequently contradicts our common sense or challenges our beliefs and our behavior. Hence, the book will also tell the researcher how to effectively use, evaluate and interpret different forecasting methods under different situations. Underlying the evaluation procedure is the need to test methods against reasonable alternatives. Overall, this book should serve as a standard source of reference for researchers in the fields of business, government, academia, and consulting.
Download or read book Trinity Strikes Back Monetary Independence and Inflation in the Caribbean written by Mr.Serhan Cevik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-20 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monetary independence is at the core of the macroeconomic policy trilemma stating that an independent monetary policy, a fixed exchange rate and free movement of capital cannot exist at the same time. This study examines the relationship between monetary autonomy and inflation dynamics in a panel of Caribbean countries over the period 1980–2017. The empirical results show that monetary independence is a significant factor in determining inflation, even after controlling for macroeconomic developments. In other words, greater monetary policy independence, measured as a country’s ability to conduct its own monetary policy for domestic purposes independent of external monetary influences, leads to lower consumer price inflation. This relationship—robust to alternative specifications and estimation methodologies—has clear policy implications, especially for countries that maintain pegged exchange rates relative to the U.S. dollar with a critical bearing on monetary autonomy.
Download or read book The Tourism Area Life Cycle Conceptual and theoretical issues written by Richard Butler and published by Channel View Publications. This book was released on 2006 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is divided into five sections: the conceptual origins of the TALC, spatial relationships and the TALC, alternative conceptual approaches, renewing or retiring with the TALC, and predicting with the TALC. It concludes with a review of the future potential of the model in the area of the destination development process.
Download or read book Seasonality in Tourism written by Tom Baum and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2001-12-07 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seasonal variation in demand is a reality for most tourism destinations. This work provides a balanced overview of the evidence and issues relating to tourism seasonality using European, North American and Pacific Rim cases and research evidence.
Download or read book Azerbaijan Moving Toward More Diversified Resilient and Inclusive Development written by Aimee Hampel-Milagrosa and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2020-08-01 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Azerbaijan has set the course for the economy to reduce its dependence on oil by promoting new drivers of growth. By 2025, under the government’s Strategic Roads Maps, a more diversified economy should take shape led by three sectors: agriculture, tourism, and manufacturing. Bold reforms need to strengthen areas of the economy that could otherwise impede this transition, and policy makers must resolutely stay on the reform path. The core message of this publication is diversification toward non-oil sources of growth alongside efforts to reduce macroeconomic risks and the high cost of finance, make the education system responsive to the needs of the labor market, close infrastructure gaps, and help economically significant state-owned enterprises become more efficient.
Download or read book The Advanced Econometrics of Tourism Demand written by Haiyan Song and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2008-12-09 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tourism demand is the foundation on which all tourism-related business decisions ultimately rest. This book introduces students, researchers and practitioners to the modern developments in advanced econometric methodology within the context of tourism demand analysis and illustrates these developments with actual tourism applications.
Download or read book World Migration Report 2020 written by United Nations and published by United Nations. This book was released on 2019-11-27 with total page 492 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since 2000, IOM has been producing world migration reports. The World Migration Report 2020, the tenth in the world migration report series, has been produced to contribute to increased understanding of migration throughout the world. This new edition presents key data and information on migration as well as thematic chapters on highly topical migration issues, and is structured to focus on two key contributions for readers: Part I: key information on migration and migrants (including migration-related statistics); and Part II: balanced, evidence-based analysis of complex and emerging migration issues.
Download or read book Japan s Inbound Tourism Boom Lessons for Its Post COVID 19 Revival written by Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen and published by . This book was released on 2020-08-21 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we review developments in Japanese inbound tourism and investigate the main determinants of its rapid growth prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model with data on 34 tourism source markets from 1996Q1 to 2018Q4, we find that not only tourist income and tourism-related relative prices, also visa policies have had significant impacts on Japan's inbound tourism demand in the long run. In the short run, natural disasters have had large and prolonged effects on tourism. We then derive policy implications for the post-COVID-19 revival of Japanese inbound tourism.
Download or read book The Least Developed Countries Report 2020 written by United Nations and published by . This book was released on 2021-01-06 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This series contains the decisions of the Court in both the English and French texts.
Download or read book Social Panorama of Latin America 2020 written by United Nations Publications and published by . This book was released on 2021-07-29 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This publication examines the social impact of an unprecedented crisis.
