Download or read book Model Uncertainty and the Direction of Fit of the Postwar U S Phillips Curve s written by Francesca Rondina and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a model uncertainty framework that accounts for the uncertainty about both the specification of the Phillips curve and the identification assumption to be used for parameter estimation. More specifically, the paper extends the framework employed by Cogley and Sargent (2005) to incorporate uncertainty over the direction of fit of the Phillips curve. I first study the evolution of the model posterior probabilities, which can be interpreted as a measure of the econometrician's real-time beliefs over the prevailing model of the Phillips curve. I then characterize the optimal policy rule within each model, and I analyze alternative policy recommendations that incorporate model uncertainty. As expected, different directions of fit of the same model of the Phillips curve imply very different optimal policy choices, with the "Classical" specifications typically suggesting low and stable optimal inflation rates. I also find that allowing rational agents to incorporate model uncertainty in their exp.
Download or read book Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-12-01 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.
Download or read book The American Economic Review written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 1040 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Includes annual List of doctoral dissertations in political economy in progress in American universities and colleges; and the Hand book of the American Economic Association.
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003 written by Mark Gertler and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents pioneering work in macroeconomics by leading academic researchers to an audience of public policymakers and the academic community. Each commissioned paper is followed by comments and discussion. This year's edition provides a mix of cutting-edge research and policy analysis on such topics as productivity and information technology, the increase in wealth inequality, behavioral economics, and inflation.
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Download or read book European Inflation Dynamics written by Jordi Galí and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide evidence on the fit of the New Phillips Curve (NPQ for the Euro area over the period 1970-1998, and use it as a tool to compare the characteristics of European inflation dynamics with those observed in the U.S. We also analyze the factors underlying inflation inertia by examining the cyclical behavior of marginal costs, as well as that of its two main components, namely, labor productivity and real wages. Some of the findings can be summarized as follows: (a) the NPC fits Euro area data very well, possibly better than U.S. data, (b) the degree of price stickiness implied by the estimates is substantial, but in line with survey evidence and U.S. estimates, (c) inflation dynamics in the Euro area appear to have a stronger forward- looking component (i.e., less inertia) than in the U.S., (d) labor market frictions, as manifested in the behavior of the wage markup, appear to have played a key role in shaping the behavior of marginal costs and, consequently, inflation in Europe.
Download or read book Economic Security Neglected Dimension of National Security written by National Defense University (U S ) and published by Government Printing Office. This book was released on 2011-12-27 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On August 24-25, 2010, the National Defense University held a conference titled “Economic Security: Neglected Dimension of National Security?” to explore the economic element of national power. This special collection of selected papers from the conference represents the view of several keynote speakers and participants in six panel discussions. It explores the complexity surrounding this subject and examines the major elements that, interacting as a system, define the economic component of national security.
Download or read book International Dimensions of Monetary Policy written by Jordi Galí and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-03-15 with total page 663 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
Download or read book Confronting South Korea s Next Crisis written by Jaejoon Woo and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2022 with total page 647 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: South Korea's economic miracle is a well-known story. However, today Korea is confronting a new set of internal and external risks, which may foreshadow the next crisis. The Korean economy has been struggling with the faltering growth momentum and the rise of unprecedented socio-economic problems over recent years well before the pandemic crisis. After abrupt downshifts to markedly slower growth in the early 2000s, economic growth has continued to decelerate. Koreans are grappling with slow income growth, all time-high household debt, high youth unemployment, inequality, and social polarization. Politics is in disarray and is incapable of directing social discourse for the common good. Rapid population aging along with the world's lowest fertility rates stokes fears of Japanification. Simultaneously, disruptive technologies and fast-changing business environment such as the rise of China clash with a range of long-standing structural problems. The contemporary challenges are radically different from those seen in the early stages of industrialization. There are multiple risks that threaten to self-perpetuate low or stagnant growth over the next decade or so, if not an outright financial crisis. Motivated by these latest developments, this book seeks to provide a timely and in-depth analysis of key current issues and foreseeable challenges of the economy, with a provocative reassessment of its future. Based on extensive new empirical works, it examines the underlying causes of the socio-economic problems. In a constructive spirit, it puts in perspective what would constitute critical elements of ideal policy solutions and the direction of the future government's role.
Download or read book Monetary Policy Rules written by John B. Taylor and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 460 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This timely volume presents the latest thinking on the monetary policy rules and seeks to determine just what types of rules and policy guidelines function best. A unique cooperative research effort that allowed contributors to evaluate different policy rules using their own specific approaches, this collection presents their striking findings on the potential response of interest rates to an array of variables, including alterations in the rates of inflation, unemployment, and exchange. Monetary Policy Rules illustrates that simple policy rules are more robust and more efficient than complex rules with multiple variables. A state-of-the-art appraisal of the fundamental issues facing the Federal Reserve Board and other central banks, Monetary Policy Rules is essential reading for economic analysts and policymakers alike.
Download or read book Inflation and Activity Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications written by Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-11-06 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We explore two issues triggered by the crisis. First, in most advanced countries, output remains far below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years in 23 countries. We find that a high proportion of them have been followed by lower output or even lower growth. To examine the second, we estimate a Phillips curve relation over the past 50 years for 20 countries. We find that the effect of unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since then. We draw implications of our findings for monetary policy.
Download or read book Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession written by Christopher J. Erceg and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-12-16 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we provide compelling evidence that cyclical factors account for the bulk of the post-2007 decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate. We then proceed to formulate a stylized New Keynesian model in which labor force participation is essentially acyclical during “normal times” (that is, in response to small or transitory shocks) but drops markedly in the wake of a large and persistent aggregate demand shock. Finally, we show that these considerations can have potentially crucial implications for the design of monetary policy, especially under circumstances in which adjustments to the short-term interest rate are constrained by the zero lower bound.
Download or read book Macroeconomics written by Olivier Blanchard and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This print textbook is available for students to rent for their classes. The Pearson print rental program provides students with affordable access to learning materials, so they come to class ready to succeed. For intermediate courses in economics. A unified view of the latest macroeconomic events In Macroeconomics, Blanchard presents an integrated, global view of macroeconomics, enabling students to see the connections between goods markets, financial markets, and labor markets worldwide. Organized into two parts, the text contains a core section that focuses on short-, medium-, and long-run markets and two major extensions that offer more in-depth coverage of the issues at hand. From the major economic crisis that engulfed the world in the late 2000s, to monetary policy in the US, to the problems of the Euro area, and growth in China, the text helps students make sense not only of current macroeconomic events but also of those that may unfold in the future. Integrated, detailed boxes in the 8th Edition have been updated to convey the life of macroeconomics today, reinforce lessons from the models, and help students employ and develop their analytical and evaluative skills. Also available with MyLab Economics By combining trusted author content with digital tools and a flexible platform, MyLab personalizes the learning experience and improves results for each student.
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Bayesian Econometrics written by John Geweke and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2011-09-29 with total page 576 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian econometric methods have enjoyed an increase in popularity in recent years. Econometricians, empirical economists, and policymakers are increasingly making use of Bayesian methods. This handbook is a single source for researchers and policymakers wanting to learn about Bayesian methods in specialized fields, and for graduate students seeking to make the final step from textbook learning to the research frontier. It contains contributions by leading Bayesians on the latest developments in their specific fields of expertise. The volume provides broad coverage of the application of Bayesian econometrics in the major fields of economics and related disciplines, including macroeconomics, microeconomics, finance, and marketing. It reviews the state of the art in Bayesian econometric methodology, with chapters on posterior simulation and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, Bayesian nonparametric techniques, and the specialized tools used by Bayesian time series econometricians such as state space models and particle filtering. It also includes chapters on Bayesian principles and methodology.
Download or read book The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling written by Gunnar Bårdsen and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2005 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work describes how the discipline has adapted to changing demands by adopting new insights from economic theory and by taking advantage of the methodological and conceptual advances within time series econometrics.
Download or read book Keynes and Marx written by Bill Dunn and published by Manchester University Press. This book was released on 2021-07-06 with total page 435 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Keynes was an elitist and pro-capitalist economist, whom the left should embrace with caution. But his analysis provides a concreteness missing from Marx and engages with critical issues of the modern world that Marx could not have foreseen. This book argues that a critical Marxist engagement can simultaneously increase the power of Keynes’s insight and enrich Marxism. To understand Keynes, whose work is liberally invoked but seldom read, Dunn explores him in the context of the extraordinary times in which he lived, his philosophy, and his politics. By offering a detailed overview of Keynes’s critique of mainstream economics and General Theory, Dunn argues that Keynes provides an enduringly valuable critique of orthodoxy. The book develops a Marxist appropriation of Keynes’s insights, arguing that a Marxist analysis of unemployment, capital and the role of the state can be enriched through such a critical engagement. The point is to change the world, not just to understand it. Thus the book considers the prospects of returning to Keynes, critically reviewing the practices that have come to be known as ‘Keynesianism’ and the limits of the theoretical traditions that have made claim to his legacy.
Download or read book Lectures on Macroeconomics written by Olivier Blanchard and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1989-03-21 with total page 674 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The main purpose of Lectures on Macroeconomics is to characterize and explain fluctuations in output, unemployment and movement in prices. Lectures on Macroeconomics provides the first comprehensive description and evaluation of macroeconomic theory in many years. While the authors' perspective is broad, they clearly state their assessment of what is important and what is not as they present the essence of macroeconomic theory today.The main purpose of Lectures on Macroeconomics is to characterize and explain fluctuations in output, unemployment and movement in prices. The most important fact of modern economic history is persistent long term growth, but as the book makes clear, this growth is far from steady. The authors analyze and explore these fluctuations. Topics include consumption and investment; the Overlapping Generations Model; money; multiple equilibria, bubbles, and stability; the role of nominal rigidities; competitive equilibrium business cycles, nominal rigidities and economic fluctuations, goods, labor and credit markets; and monetary and fiscal policy issues. Each of chapters 2 through 9 discusses models appropriate to the topic. Chapter 10 then draws on the previous chapters, asks which models are the workhorses of macroeconomics, and sets the models out in convenient form. A concluding chapter analyzes the goals of economic policy, monetary policy, fiscal policy, and dynamic inconsistency. Written as a text for graduate students with some background in macroeconomics, statistics, and econometrics, Lectures on Macroeconomics also presents topics in a self contained way that makes it a suitable reference for professional economists.
