Download or read book How China Escaped Shock Therapy written by Isabella M. Weber and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-05-26 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China has become deeply integrated into the world economy. Yet, gradual marketization has facilitated the country’s rise without leading to its wholesale assimilation to global neoliberalism. This book uncovers the fierce contest about economic reforms that shaped China’s path. In the first post-Mao decade, China’s reformers were sharply divided. They agreed that China had to reform its economic system and move toward more marketization—but struggled over how to go about it. Should China destroy the core of the socialist system through shock therapy, or should it use the institutions of the planned economy as market creators? With hindsight, the historical record proves the high stakes behind the question: China embarked on an economic expansion commonly described as unprecedented in scope and pace, whereas Russia’s economy collapsed under shock therapy. Based on extensive research, including interviews with key Chinese and international participants and World Bank officials as well as insights gleaned from unpublished documents, the book charts the debate that ultimately enabled China to follow a path to gradual reindustrialization. Beyond shedding light on the crossroads of the 1980s, it reveals the intellectual foundations of state-market relations in reform-era China through a longue durée lens. Overall, the book delivers an original perspective on China’s economic model and its continuing contestations from within and from without.

Download or read book Measuring Oil Price Shocks Using Market Based Information written by Tao Wu and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-10 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, they classify them into various event types. They then develop measures of exogenous shocks that avoid endogeneity and predictability concerns. Estimation results indicate that oil-price shocks have had substantial and statistically significant effects during the last 25 years. In contrast, traditional vector auto-regression (VAR) approaches imply much weaker and insignificant effects for the same period. This discrepancy stems from the inability of VARs to separate exogenous oil-supply shocks from endogenous oil-price fluctuations driven by changes in oil demand. Illustrations.

Download or read book Labour Market and Fiscal Policy Adjustments to Shocks written by Nombulelo Gumata and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-12-18 with total page 599 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on the implications of the South African labour market dynamics including labour market reforms and fiscal policy for monetary policy and financial stability. Evidence suggests there are benefits in adopting an approach that coordinates labour market policies and reforms, fiscal policy, price and financial stability. In particular, the benefits of coordinating policies present policymakers with policy options in cases where they are confronted by binding policy trade-offs and dilemmas, such as in cases when there is divergence in price and financial and economic growth outcomes. The empirical insights and policy recommendations are based on different techniques that include the counterfactual and endogenous-exogenous approaches, non-linearities introduced by thresholds and the impact of persistent and transitory shock effects. Themes covered in the book include various aspects of labour market conditions and reforms and their link to inflation and inflation expectations, the impact of the national minimum wage, the interaction between public and private sector wage inflation, economic policy uncertainty and employment, government debt thresholds, sovereign yields and debt ratings downgrades, labour productivity, the impact of inflation regimes on expansionary fiscal and monetary policy multipliers, the increase in government cost of funding on price and financial stability and the link between fiscal policy and credit dynamics.

Download or read book Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil written by Mr.Nooman Rebei and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-28 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus permanent shocks, pointing to the importance of disentangling their distinct effects. Permanent supply disruptions turn out to be a bigger factor in historical oil price movements during the most recent decades, while speculative shocks became less influential.

Download or read book Production shocks exports and market prices An analysis of the rice sector in Myanmar written by Dorosh, Paul and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2019-04-27 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since 2012/13, rice exports to China (which may have reached two million tons in 2015/16) boosted total demand for Myanmar’s rice and rice prices. In mid-2016, however, China stopped rice imports through the main land entry point, putting substantial downward pressure on prices. Analysis presented in this paper, based on econometric estimates of consumption parameters and a simple model of Myanmar’s rice supply and demand, suggests that market prices would fall by 26 to 43 percent or more (in real terms) in the absence of increased exports to the world market and/or government domestic procurement. Such a decline in prices could have seriously harmed Myanmar’s rice producers, including many poor farmers with marketable surpluses. Model simulations suggest that government procurement of about one million tons would limit the estimated price decline to only 17 to 30 percent. Further refinements in the simulations are needed to take account for the seasonal nature of paddy production in Myanmar, possible price-responsiveness of export demand and the effects of changes in paddy incomes on farmer demand for rice. Medium-term analysis of procurement, storage and future sales is needed to analyze fiscal costs under various scenarios, as well, covering alternative shocks to production, export demand and world prices. Nonetheless, the main results are clear: without substantial market interventions on the order of one million tons (milled rice equivalent), the paddy (rice) price could fall dramatically when production increases or export demand declines.

Download or read book Labor Market Adjustments to Shocks in Australia written by Mr.Adil Mohommad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-24 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Labor markets in Australia have adjusted smoothly to significant declines in commodity prices with little increase in unemployment. This paper examines several aspects of the adjustment, focusing on (i) evidence of increased labor market frictions following the commodity price decline; (ii) flexibility in labor input adjustment in response to demand shocks; (iii) changes in labor productivity in the wake of resource reallocation with the decline in mining investment, (iv) and the role of migration in adjusting to the commodity price and mining investment cycle. We find little evidence of increased labor market frictions with the decline in commodity prices. The relatively smooth transition has been assisted by increased flexibility in adjustment of worker hours over time. Labor productivity growth has sustained its historical average through the transition, despite some temporary drag as the economy rebalances. Finally, migration has played a key role in labor market adjustment through the commodity cycle.

Download or read book The Dynamic Effects of Local Labor Market Shocks on Small Firms in The United States written by Mr. Philip Barrett and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-03-22 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use payroll data on over 1 million workers at 80,000 small firms to construct county-month measures of employment, hours, and wages that correct for dynamic changes in sample composition in response to business cycle fluctuations. We use this to estimate the response of small firms' employment, hours and wages following tighter local labor market conditions. We find that employment and hours per worker fall and wages rise. This is consistent with the predictions of the response to a demand shock in the well-known “jobs ladder” model of labor markets. To check this interpretation, we show our results hold when instrumenting for local demand using county-level Department of Defense contract spending. Correction for dynamic sample bias is important -- without it, the hours fall by only one third as much and wages increase by double.

Download or read book Idiosyncratic Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Emerging Market written by Mr. Francesco Grigoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-12-10 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides the first assessment of the contribution of idiosyncratic shocks to aggregate fluctuations in an emerging market using confidential data on the universe of Chilean firms. We find that idiosyncratic shocks account for more than 40 percent of the volatility of aggregate sales. Although quite large, this contribution is smaller than documented in previous studies based on advanced economies, despite a higher degree of market concentration in Chile.We show that this finding is explained by larger firms being less volatile and by weaker propagation effects across Chilean firms.

Download or read book Scenario Analysis with the DD PD Mapping Approach Stock Market Shocks and U S Corporate Default Risk written by Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-20 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper introduces the quantile regression- based Distance-to-Default to Probability of Default (DD-PD) mapping, which links individual firms’ DD to their real world PD. Since changes in the DD depend on a handful of parameters, the mapping easily accommodates shocks arising from quantitative and narrative scenarios informed by expert judgment. At end-2020, risks from stock market corrections in the U.S. are concentrated in the energy, financial and technology sectors, and additional bank capital needs could be large. The paper concludes discussing uses of the mapping beyond PD valuation suitable for capital structure analysis, credit portfolio management, and long-term scenario planning analysis.

Download or read book MKT SHOCK written by Todd G. Buchholz and published by Harper Collins. This book was released on 1999-07-07 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the stock market enters rocky territory, a distinguished economist shows how to prepare for and even profit from market-shattering events.

Download or read book Shock Markets written by Robert I. Webb and published by FT Press. This book was released on 2013-03-26 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Don't fear crises: use them as opportunities to make money! Shock Markets shows traders and investors exactly how to do it -- with exceptional detail, not vague handwaving. Robert Webb and Alexander Webb offer meticulous breakdowns of recent crises, revealing how they impacted both individual stocks and the market as a whole -- and helping you create detailed game plans for profiting from future shocks. By fusing real-life trading examples with rigorous moment-by-moment analysis of price changes, they give you tools to survive and thrive in even the most volatile markets. This accessible, actionable book answers crucial questions like: What moves stock prices? What moves the overall market? How can you profit from understanding catalysts that precipitate sudden sharp changes in stock prices? From the actions of corporate executives to regulatory decisions, earnings announcements to merger deals, lawsuits to settlements, macroeconomic reports to the policy actions of foreign governments, seemingly remote factors can have a huge, sudden impact on stocks in today's interconnected markets. Shock Markets illuminates these catalysts, and demonstrates their shifting behavior during fads, fashions, bubbles, crashes, and market crises. The focus is completely practical: helping savvy traders uncover profit where others find only peril.

Download or read book The Shock Doctrine written by Naomi Klein and published by Metropolitan Books. This book was released on 2010-04-01 with total page 721 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The bestselling author of No Logo shows how the global "free market" has exploited crises and shock for three decades, from Chile to Iraq In her groundbreaking reporting, Naomi Klein introduced the term "disaster capitalism." Whether covering Baghdad after the U.S. occupation, Sri Lanka in the wake of the tsunami, or New Orleans post-Katrina, she witnessed something remarkably similar. People still reeling from catastrophe were being hit again, this time with economic "shock treatment," losing their land and homes to rapid-fire corporate makeovers. The Shock Doctrine retells the story of the most dominant ideology of our time, Milton Friedman's free market economic revolution. In contrast to the popular myth of this movement's peaceful global victory, Klein shows how it has exploited moments of shock and extreme violence in order to implement its economic policies in so many parts of the world from Latin America and Eastern Europe to South Africa, Russia, and Iraq. At the core of disaster capitalism is the use of cataclysmic events to advance radical privatization combined with the privatization of the disaster response itself. Klein argues that by capitalizing on crises, created by nature or war, the disaster capitalism complex now exists as a booming new economy, and is the violent culmination of a radical economic project that has been incubating for fifty years.

Download or read book Theory of Shocks COVID 19 and Normative Fundamentals for Policy Responses written by Pilipenko, Olga Ivanovna and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2021-03-18 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The phenomenon of shocks is often mentioned in relation to economic crises but rarely studied. This gap in research has resulted in shocks being poorly understood, with no fundamental explanation of their inciting conditions. It is a system-forming problem that cannot be investigated without dynamic ideas about the economy, but an incomplete understanding of this event leaves economic systems vulnerable to collapse. Theory of Shocks, COVID-19, and Normative Fundamentals for Policy Responses is an essential publication that explores the factors that cause economic shocks and the mechanisms of their implementation. The book serves as a resource for the development of policy-oriented frameworks for achieving and maintaining national and international strategies to properly manage future global shocks. Featuring coverage of a wide range of topics including dialectics, self-evolvement, and structural relationships, this book is ideally designed for economists, executives, managers, entrepreneurs, academicians, students, and researchers in the areas of finance, macroeconomics, economic theory, and risk assessment.

Download or read book The Economics and Finance of Commodity Price Shocks written by Mikidadu Mohammed and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-11-25 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The behaviour of commodity prices never ceases to marvel economists, financial analysts, industry experts, and policymakers. Unexpected swings in commodity prices used to occur infrequently but have now become a permanent feature of global commodity markets. This book is about modelling commodity price shocks. It is intended to provide insights into the theoretical, conceptual, and empirical modelling of the underlying causes of global commodity price shocks. Three main objectives motivated the writing of this book. First, to provide a variety of modelling frameworks for documenting the frequency and intensity of commodity price shocks. Second, to evaluate existing approaches used for forecasting large movements in future commodity prices. Third, to cover a wide range and aspects of global commodities including currencies, rare–hard–lustrous transition metals, agricultural commodities, energy, and health pandemics. Some attempts have already been made towards modelling commodity price shocks. However, most tend to narrowly focus on a subset of commodity markets, i.e., agricultural commodities market and/or the energy market. In this book, the author moves the needle forward by operationalizing different models, which allow researchers to identify the underlying causes and effects of commodity price shocks. Readers also learn about different commodity price forecasting models. The author presents the topics to readers assuming less prior or specialist knowledge. Thus, the book is accessible to industry analysts, researchers, undergraduate and graduate students in economics and financial economics, academic and professional economists, investors, and financial professionals working in different sectors of the commodity markets. Another advantage of the book’s approach is that readers are not only exposed to several innovative modelling techniques to add to their modelling toolbox but are also exposed to diverse empirical applications of the techniques presented.

Download or read book Country Transparency and the Global Transmission of Financial Shocks written by Mr.Luis Brandão Brandao Marques and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-07-03 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper considers the role of country-level opacity (the lack of availability of information) in amplifying shocks emanating from financial centers. We provide a simple model where, in the presence of ambiguity (uncertainty about the probability distribution of returns), prices in emerging markets react more strongly to signals from the developed market, the more opaque the emerging market is. The second contribution is empirical evidence for bond and equity markets in line with this prediction. Increasing the availability of information about public policies, improving accounting standards, and enhancing legal frameworks can help reduce the unpleasant side effects of financial globalization.

Download or read book Handbook Of Global Financial Markets Transformations Dependence And Risk Spillovers written by Sabri Boubaker and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2019-06-27 with total page 828 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of this handbook is to provide the readers with insights about current dynamics and future potential transformations of global financial markets. We intend to focus on four main areas: Dynamics of Financial Markets; Financial Uncertainty and Volatility; Market Linkages and Spillover Effects; and Extreme Events and Financial Transformations and address the following critical issues, but not limited to: market integration and its implications; crisis risk assessment and contagion effects; financial uncertainty and volatility; role of emerging financial markets in the global economy; role of complex dynamics of economic and financial systems; market linkages, asset valuation and risk management; exchange rate volatility and firm-level exposure; financial effects of economic, political and social risks; link between financial development and economic growth; country risks; and sovereign debt markets.

Download or read book Transmission Channels of Financial Shocks to Stock Bond and Asset Backed Markets written by Massimo Guidolin and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-11-12 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Researchers, policymakers and commentators have long debated the patterns through which adverse shocks in a few markets may quickly spread to a range of apparently disconnected financial markets causing widespread losses and turmoil. This book uses modern linear and non-linear econometric methods to characterize how shocks to the yield of risky fixed income securities, such as sub-prime asset-backed or low-credit rating sovereign bonds, are transmitted to the yields in other markets. These include equity and corporate bond markets as well as relatively risk-free fixed income securities, such as highly rated asset-backed securities and sovereign bonds from core Eurozone countries. The authors analyse and compare the results from linear and non-linear models to identify and assess four distinct contagion channels characterizing both US and European financial markets. These include the correlated information, risk premium, flight-to-liquidity, and flight-to quality channels. The results of this study support the theory that both investors and policy-makers ought to pay special attention to liquidity and commonalities in the perceptions of the probabilities of default, as channels through which financial shocks propagate.