Download or read book Methodological Note on EBA Lite written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-02 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Fund has taken important steps to enhance its external sector assessments since the launch of the External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology and the External Sector Report (ESR) in 2012, which provides a multilaterally consistent assessment of the largest economies’ external sector positions and policies. With scope for strengthening external sector assessments of non-EBA countries, the 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR) called for the application of EBA’s conceptual innovations to a broader set of countries. Following the 2014 TSR, the Managing Director’s Action Plan proposed developing EBA-lite to extend the EBA methodology to a broader group of countries where adequate data is available. In the fall of 2014, the launch of the EBA-lite methodology for current account assessments provided the first extension of EBA approach for non-EBA countries. In summer 2015, the real exchange rate index model and the external sustainability approach were added to the EBA-lite framework. This note serves as a reference for the EBA-lite methodology. It provides: (i) motivations for developing EBA-lite and guidance for its use; (ii) technical explanations of all three EBA-lite approaches; and (iii) suggestions on how to articulate staff assessments of the external sector informed by model results.
Download or read book The Revised EBA Lite Methodology written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-03 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Methodology review identified three broad areas for improving the EBA-Lite methodology: (1) expanding the fundamentals and policy determinants in the CA and REER regressions to better capture the external balance of EBA-Lite countries; (2) identifying alternatives to regression models for external assessments of large exporters of exhaustible commodities; and (3) a revised approach for the assessment of external sustainability in highly indebted economies. Accordingly, the revised methodology consists of three modules: 1) Regression Module 2) Module for External Assessments of Exporters of Exhaustible Commodities 3) Module for the Assessment of External Sustainability
Download or read book IMF Exchange Rate Policy Advice written by Louellen Stedman and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-27 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report is the seventh in a series of evaluation updates by the Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF (IEO) that return to past IEO evaluations and assess the continuing relevance of their main conclusions. The report revisits the 2007 evaluation of IMF Exchange Rate Policy Advice, which found that the IMF was “not as effective as it needed to be” in fulfilling its responsibilities for exchange rate surveillance in the period 1999–2005. While acknowledging the inherent complexity of providing exchange rate policy advice, including the lack of professional consensus on many of the key issues, the evaluation observed serious weaknesses in the IMF’s work on key analytical issues and in its engagement with members. The update finds that the IMF has substantially overhauled its approach to exchange rate policy advice since 2007. Key steps taken include: adoption of a more comprehensive approach to exchange rate surveillance under the 2012 Integrated Surveillance Decision; development of enhanced analytical tools; a new institutional view on capital flows; and introduction of the annual External Sector Report that provides an integrated picture of the external balances of major economies. The IMF continues to work on further enhancements of its approach. Nonetheless, the update concludes that challenges remain that impact the effectiveness of the IMF’s work in an area central to its mandate. The approach for assessing external balances and exchange rates continues to be contentious, in part reflecting differing views across the membership about the process of external adjustment. There are also ongoing questions in other areas, including considerations for exchange rate regime choice, attention to policy spillovers, the institutional view on capital flows, and data availability. The update suggests that the persistence of key issues identified in 2007 merits a full evaluation by the IEO.
Download or read book Cyprus written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-12-09 with total page 81 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Cyprus discusses that following a period of very rapid growth in the aftermath of the economic crisis, growth is gradually settling in at a more sustainable but still relatively robust pace despite the external slowdown. Output is projected to rise by around 3 percent in 2019–20, supported by construction and services sectors. Good progress has been made in addressing domestic and external stability risks arising from legacies of the financial crisis. Sales of nonperforming loans (NPLs), amendments to the foreclosure and insolvency framework and resolution of a large systemic bank have helped strengthen bank balance sheets. Reversal of reforms to the foreclosure framework would hinder ongoing NPL resolution efforts and create risks for financial stability. Realization of contingent liabilities from the still weak banking sector or increased fiscal spending pressures could undermine investor confidence, raising interest costs and depressing growth. Cyprus needs to build on recent gains by advancing reforms to secure macroeconomic stability, enhance efficiency and strengthen productivity and growth potential.
Download or read book Zambia written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-10-25 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights the improved near-term outlook for the Zambian economy in recent months, driven by good rains and the rising world copper price. The economy was in near-crisis conditions from the fourth quarter of 2015 through most of 2016, reflecting the impact of exogenous shocks and lax fiscal policy in the lead-up to general elections. The medium-term outlook for the economy is contingent on policies. Achieving sustained high and inclusive growth requires a stable macroeconomic environment as well as policies and reforms to increase productivity, enhance competitiveness, strengthen human capital and support financial inclusion for small and medium-scale enterprises.
Download or read book Djibouti written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-23 with total page 87 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Djibouti discusses that large-scale infrastructure investments and a rapid expansion of trade and logistics activities have fueled strong growth in recent years. The government has in recent years implemented large-scale investments to develop transport and logistics infrastructures. Combined with business climate reforms, this development strategy has fueled strong growth and positioned Djibouti well to become a regional trade and logistics hub. The IMF staff’s baseline projections assume a significant reduction in debt financed public investment. Growth is nonetheless projected to remain strong, driven by the rapid expansion in Ethiopia’s trade and a pickup in private investment. Fostering higher and inclusive growth and bolstering the external position require addressing impediments to private sector investment and improving external competitiveness. Critical reforms include further enhancing the business environment, promoting competition, and improving the governance and efficiency of public enterprises to lower factor costs, particularly in the telecommunications and electricity sectors.
Download or read book Nigeria written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-03-07 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Nigerian economy is exiting recession but remains vulnerable. New foreign exchange measures, rising oil prices, attractive yields on government securities, and a tighter monetary policy have contributed to better foreign exchange availability, increased reserves to a four-year high, and contained inflationary pressures. Economic growth reached 0.8 percent in 2017, driven mainly by recovering oil production. Inflation declined to 15.4 percent year-over-year by end-December, from 18.5 percent at end-2016. Higher oil prices are supporting the near-term projections, but medium-term projections indicate that growth would remain relatively flat, with continuing declines in per capita real GDP under unchanged policies.
Download or read book The Gambia written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-04 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that The Gambian economy has started to recover, following the sharp growth slowdown in 2016. For 2017, economic growth is estimated at 3.5 percent with a better agricultural season and a strong rebound of tourism and trade. With much-improved fiscal discipline and external financial support, the Dalasi has remained stable since April and gross international reserves increased from 1.6 months of import cover at end-2016 to 2.9 months at end-2017. Over the medium term, The Gambia can achieve a more robust growth path. This will require continued strong policy implementation and effective fiscal reforms, including ensuring debt sustainability.
Download or read book Uganda written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-12 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Uganda’s recent economic performance has been sound, notwithstanding a slowdown in growth. Real GDP growth is estimated to have slowed to 3.9 percent in FY2016/17, reflecting domestic factors and external headwinds, including the drought in the Horn of Africa. The banking sector remains well-capitalized overall. However, elevated nonperforming loans have constrained bank lending which contributed to the growth slowdown. Food price inflation increased owing to the drought, but core inflation was 5.1 percent in May 2017, in line with the Bank of Uganda’s target. The outlook is broadly favorable. With steadfast policy implementation and assuming improved weather conditions, growth could accelerate to 5 percent in FY2017/18.
Download or read book Islamic Republic of Mauritania written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-10-16 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mauritania continues to face a challenging external environment with low and volatile metal prices. A steep decline in iron ore prices in 2014–15 took away half of exports, widened the fiscal deficit, put pressure on reserves, and exposed bank vulnerabilities. In response, the authorities adjusted the budget significantly in 2016 (by 3 percent of GDP), allowed the exchange rate to depreciate, and mobilized foreign grants and loans. These efforts were successful in reducing external imbalances and maintaining macroeconomic stability, but growth slowed considerably, external debt continued to rise (to 72 percent of GDP, with a high risk of debt distress), and financial stability risks heightened. In parallel, the authorities are preparing a national strategy for accelerated and inclusive growth covering 2016–30, including structural reforms and large foreign-financed infrastructure investments to support growth and diversification.
Download or read book The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-01-24 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This IMF Staff Report for 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Ethiopia has recorded annual average GDP growth of about ten percent in the last decade, driven by public investments in agriculture and infrastructure. The poverty rate has fallen from 44 percent in 2000 to 23.5 percent in 2015/16. In 2016/17 GDP growth is estimated at 9 percent, as agriculture rebounded from severe drought conditions in 2015/16. Industrial activity expanded, with continued investments in infrastructure and manufacturing. The current account deficit declined in 2016/17 to 8.2 percent of GDP. Over the medium term, growth is expected to remain about 8 percent, supported by sustained expansion in exports and investment.
Download or read book Tonga written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-01-17 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that over recent years, Tonga has enjoyed robust growth and macroeconomic stability. Growth continued to be strong at 2.7 percent in FY2017 following 3.4 percent in FY2016, supported by construction, agriculture, tourism, strong remittances, and strong private credit growth. Inflation spiked in FY2017 because of a new import tax and an increase in domestic food prices. The country’s external position weakened slightly owing to construction-related imports, with reserves supported by strong remittances and donor aid. The outlook for the Tongan economy is favorable, despite external headwinds. Real GDP growth is projected at 3.4 percent in FY2018, driven by construction, agriculture, and tourism.
Download or read book Romania written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-05-11 with total page 71 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses recent economic developments, outlook, and risks related to the Romanian economy. Romania made important progress in addressing economic imbalances and restoring growth after the global financial crisis. Prudent policies, partly in the context of successive IMF-supported programs, reduced vulnerabilities, and the fiscal and current account deficits improved markedly. However, economic policies have weakened recently and hard-won gains are at risk of being reversed. Governance problems have received more attention recently, and Romania has made progress compared to its peers in the fight against corruption. Staff’s baseline projection is for growth to remain above potential in 2016–17.
Download or read book Rwanda written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-04 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rwanda has made considerable progress in sustaining high and inclusive growth and reducing poverty. Despite numerous shocks, macroeconomic management has been strong and debt risks have remained low. Going forward, the authorities’ National Strategy for Transformation (NST) aims to make progress toward the SDGs, but its financing will be challenging. A more neutral medium-term fiscal policy stance can help, reinforced with commitments for more domestic revenue mobilization and mitigation of fiscal risks. The central bank moved to a new interest-rate based monetary policy framework and, with inflation below its target range, eased the policy stance. To support their policies and NST implementation, the authorities are requesting approval of a 3-year program supported by the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI).
Download or read book Vanuatu written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-06-13 with total page 87 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Four years after Cyclone Pam struck Vanuatu causing extensive damages, reconstruction is near completion with full recovery in sight. The authorities are now focused on implementing their broader development plans that were slowed by the rebuilding process, which will require fiscal discipline and reforms to maintain debt sustainability. The authorities should continue their constructive engagement with development partners for technical assistance, capacity development, and concessional and grant-based funding. In parallel continuing to reform and strengthen the governance of institutions and removing vulnerabilities to corruption will be important.
Download or read book Cabo Verde written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-29 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic growth of Cabo Verde in 2015 stagnated at 1.5 percent, slightly below the 1.9 percent registered in 2014. Tourism recovered and remittances remained robust, but foreign direct investment (FDI) and public investment slowed. The unemployment rate declined to 12.4 percent, as did youth unemployment, which nevertheless remained high at 28.6 percent. Consumer price inflation remained muted owing to lower food and energy prices, averaging 0.1 percent for 2015. In 2016, growth is forecast to recover to 3.2 percent supported by FDI, domestic demand, agriculture, and tourism, which should benefit from the mild upswing in Europe.
Download or read book Guinea written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-19 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses Guinea’s Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). The Guinean economy has rebounded from the adverse impact of the Ebola epidemic, and growth is expected to continue to be sustained supported by buoyant mining activity and the scaling-up of infrastructure investments. The three-year ECF arrangement will help Guinea address a protracted balance of payment need and implement economic policies and reforms to foster higher and broad-based growth. The program will also play a catalytic role in mobilizing donor financing, notably from the World Bank and the European Union.
