Download or read book Meteorological and Model Traits Knowledge Bases for North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones written by Rachael A. Spollen and published by . This book was released on 2002-09-01 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These tropical cyclone Meteorology and Model Traits Knowledge Bases for the North Indian Ocean (NI0) complete the global coverage required for application of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting introduced by Carr and Elsberry (1994). The database for the NIO Meteorological Knowledge Base includes 64 storms during 1991-2001, All of the 656 cases could be classified in three common synoptic patterns that have been found to apply in other basins, with no unique patterns. About 75% of the cases are in the standard pattern. This preliminary Model Traits Knowledge Base includes only eight tropical cyclones during 2000-2001, The model forecast track errors are relatively small, and only 33%, 62%, and 70% of the Navy global, regional, and UK Meteorological Office models, respectively, exceed 150 n mi at 72 h. Only 12 cases of large (>225 n mi at 72 h) track forecast errors occur. Half of these large-error cases are associated with erroneous model predictions in the midlatitudes. One third of the large errors originate from improper model treatments of the tropical circulations, and the remaining two cases originate from erroneous initial cyclone positions. Since these are the same error sources as in other basins, the Systematic Approach has global application.
Download or read book Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change written by Yassine Charabi and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-01-19 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tropical cyclones are topic that is not appropriately known to the public at large, but climate change has been on the public’s mind since the last decade and a concern that has peaked in the new millennium. Like the television programs of Jean Yves Cousteau the ‘plight of the oceans’, have recent documentaries nurtured a conscio- ness that major climatological changes are in the offing, even have started to develop. The retreat of glaciers on mountain tops and in Polar Regions is ‘being seen’ on ‘the small screen’ and has favored an environmental awareness in all populations that are enjoying an average well-being on Planet Earth. The vivid images on screen of storms, floods, and tsunamis share the fear provoking landscapes of deforestation, desertification and the like. Watching such as this one is seen are voices warning of what over is ‘in store’ if the causative problems are not remedied. Talking and d- cussing are useful, but action must follow. Understanding the full ramifications of climate change on tropical cyclones is a task that will takes several decades. In Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) a high probability of major changes in tropical cyclone activity across the various ocean basins is highlighted.
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Activity over the North Indian Ocean written by M. Mohapatra and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-11-24 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals primarily with understanding, monitoring and prediction of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) over the North Indian Ocean (NIO). There is special emphasis on TC genesis, intensification, movement and associated adverse weather like heavy rainfall and gale winds. It highlights the current state of research on TCs over the NIO and recent improvements in early warning systems due to advances in observational, analytical and numerical weather prediction techniques. The chapters in the book are authored by leading experts from research and operational environments.The chapters presented in the book intend to stimulate thinking and hence further research in the field of TCs, especially over the NIO region. They provide high quality reference material for all experts working in the field of TC related disaster management. This book is relevant to TC forecasters and researchers, managers, policy makers, graduate and undergraduate students.
Download or read book Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change written by U.C. Mohanty and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-10-12 with total page 435 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals with recent advances in our understanding and prediction of tropical cyclogenesis, intensification and movement as well as landfall processes like heavy rainfall, gale wind and storm surge based on the latest observational and numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling platforms. It also includes tropical cyclone (TC) management issues like early warning systems, recent high impact TC events, disaster preparedness, assessment of risk and vulnerability including construction, archiving and retrieval of the best tracking and historical data sets, policy decision etc., in view of recent findings on climate change aspects and their impact on TC activity. The chapters are authored by leading experts, both from research and operational environments. This book is relevant to cyclone forecasters and researchers, managers, policy makers, graduate and undergraduate students. It intends to stimulate thinking and hence further research in the field of TCs and climate change, especially over the Indian Ocean region and provides high-quality reference materials for all the users mentioned above for the management of TCs over this region.
Download or read book Characteristics of North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Activity written by COLORADO STATE UNIV FORT COLLINS DEPT OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE. and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Characteristics of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are discussed from a combined climatological, composite, and individual-case perspective. Presented are both a general discussion of the monthly climatology of these spring/autumn tropical cyclones and a comparison of their strucutre, genesis, intensity, and movement with these qualities of northwest Pacific Ocean tropical cyclones. Detailed individual case analyses are made of each North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone that occurred during the First Global GARP Experiment (FGGE) period. Each tropical cyclone's characteristics from genesis to decay are discussed. All data sources of the FGGE year period were consulted, including the analysis of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
Download or read book Atlantic Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 1 Environmental Structure Characteristics written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Meteorological knowledge base for application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the Atlantic basin follows from similar knowledge bases previously developed for the western North Pacific, the eastern and central North Pacific, and the Southern Hemisphere. A common environment structure terminology has been adopted in which three synoptic patterns (Standard, Poleward, and Midlatitude) are found in each of these basins. Each basin also has a special pattern, which in the Atlantic is the Upper-level low. The conceptual models for these synoptic patterns with their associated synoptic regions are described here via a conceptual model, analysis examples, and the characteristic track segments within each region. A climatology of occurrences in each patter/region for the 1568 cases during 1990-98 is prepared. The second key element in the knowledge base is the transitional mechanisms that change the environment structure and thus change the tropical cyclone steering flow. Conceptual models for these mechanisms are presented and illustrated with sequences of analyses. A climatology of recurring (at least four occurrences in nine years) transitions is prepared to indicate the most common track changes during these transitions.
Download or read book Tropical Cyclones of the North Indian Ocean written by James C. Sadler and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Photographs from polar-orbiting meteorological satellites were used in this study to obtain the frequency and tracks of depressions, storms, and hurricanes in the North Indian Ocean from November 1966 through December 1970 plus October 1971. The distribution of the mean sea-surface temperature, cloudiness, and atmospheric circulation for selected months are discussed in relation to the observed cyclone climatology. Appropriate and pertinent climatic charts of these parameters are presented. The results from the satellite period are compared with the 70-year (1891-1960) climatology of cyclonic storms from the India Meteorological Department (1964). Plotted cyclone tracks derived from satellite data are presented, as are plotted monthly tracks developed by the India Meteorological Department. (Author).
Download or read book Atlantic Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 1 Environmental Structure Characteristics written by Mark A. Booth and published by . This book was released on 2000-06 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Meteorological knowledge base for application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the Atlantic basin follows from similar knowledge bases previously developed for the western North Pacific, the eastern and central North Pacific, and the Southern Hemisphere. A common environment structure terminology has been adopted in which three synoptic patterns (Standard, Poleward, and Midlatitude) are found in each of these basins. Each basin also has a special pattern, which in the Atlantic is the Upper-level low. The conceptual models for these synoptic patterns with their associated synoptic regions are described here via a conceptual model, analysis examples, and the characteristic track segments within each region. A climatology of occurrences in each patter/region for the 1568 cases during 1990- 98 is prepared. The second key element in the knowledge base is the transitional mechanisms that change the environment structure and thus change the tropical cyclone steering flow. Conceptual models for these mechanisms are presented and illustrated with sequences of analyses. A climatology of recurring (at least four occurrences in nine years) transitions is prepared to indicate the most common track changes during these transitions.
Download or read book Uncertainties and Limitations in Simulating Tropical Cyclones written by Asuka Suzuki-Parker and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-01-05 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The thesis work was in two major parts: development and testing of a new approach to detecting and tracking tropical cyclones in climate models; and application of an extreme value statistical approach to enable assessment of changes in weather extremes from climate models. The tracking algorithm applied a creative phase-space approach to differentiate between modeled tropical cyclones and their mid-latitude cousins. A feature here was the careful attention to sensitivity to choice of selection parameters, which is considerable. The major finding was that the changes over time were relatively insensitive to these details. This new approach will improve and add confidence to future assessments of climate impacts on hurricanes. The extremes approach utilized the Generalized Pareto Distribution (one of the standard approaches to statistics of extremes) applied to present and future hurricane distributions as modeled by a regional climate model, then applied the changes to current observations to extract the changes in the extremes. Since climate models cannot resolve these extremes directly, this provides an excellent method of determining weather extremes in general. This is of considerable societal importance as we are most vulnerable to such extremes and knowledge of their changes enables improved planning and adaptation strategies.
Download or read book Structure and Movement of Tropical Cyclones Over the North Indian Ocean Simulated by WRF ARW Model written by B. R. S. B. Basnayake and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Tropical Cyclones and Their Forecasting Systems in the North Indian Ocean written by G. S. Mandal and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 430 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 3 Updated Environmental Structure Characteristics written by and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Meteorological knowledge base of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting in the Southern Hemisphere has been updated to reflect a more global terminology. Examples of these new environment structures in operational (NOGAPS) analyses and tracks are given. Perhaps the most important conclusion is that all cases in the 1990-91 through 1998-1999 seasons could be classified into one of these 14 synoptic pattern/region combinations. The nine-year "climatology" of the occurrences of each of the 14 combinations is given for the South Indian and Pacific Oceans separately, and the characteristic tracks in each of these 14 combinations are provided. Some new transitional mechanisms between these combinations have also been defined. The importance of these transitions from one pattern/region combinations to another is that the TC track then also changes. The frequency of recurring (greater than three) transitions in this nine-year sample is summarized. Because the TC is at any time in only one pattern/region combination, the concern of the forecaster is on the possible transitions from that pattern/region. To assist the forecaster, the percentages of these transitions from each pattern/region combination are also summarized & Some of these transitions are clearly more favored than others, which is useful dance to the forecaster.
Download or read book Advanced Numerical Modeling and Data Assimilation Techniques for Tropical Cyclone Predictions written by U.C. Mohanty and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-11-21 with total page 762 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals primarily with monitoring, prediction and understanding of Tropical Cyclones (TCs). It was envisioned to serve as a teaching and reference resource at universities and academic institutions for researchers and post-graduate students. It has been designed to provide a broad outlook on recent advances in observations, assimilation and modeling of TCs with detailed and advanced information on genesis, intensification, movement and storm surge prediction. Specifically, it focuses on (i) state-of-the-art observations for advancing TC research, (ii) advances in numerical weather prediction for TCs, (iii) advanced assimilation and vortex initialization techniques, (iv) ocean coupling, (v) current capabilities to predict TCs, and (vi) advanced research in physical and dynamical processes in TCs. The chapters in the book are authored by leading international experts from academic, research and operational environments. The book is also expected to stimulate critical thinking for cyclone forecasters and researchers, managers, policy makers, and graduate and post-graduate students to carry out future research in the field of TCs.
Download or read book Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change written by Yassine Charabi and published by Springer. This book was released on 2010-11-04 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tropical cyclones are topic that is not appropriately known to the public at large, but climate change has been on the public’s mind since the last decade and a concern that has peaked in the new millennium. Like the television programs of Jean Yves Cousteau the ‘plight of the oceans’, have recent documentaries nurtured a conscio- ness that major climatological changes are in the offing, even have started to develop. The retreat of glaciers on mountain tops and in Polar Regions is ‘being seen’ on ‘the small screen’ and has favored an environmental awareness in all populations that are enjoying an average well-being on Planet Earth. The vivid images on screen of storms, floods, and tsunamis share the fear provoking landscapes of deforestation, desertification and the like. Watching such as this one is seen are voices warning of what over is ‘in store’ if the causative problems are not remedied. Talking and d- cussing are useful, but action must follow. Understanding the full ramifications of climate change on tropical cyclones is a task that will takes several decades. In Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) a high probability of major changes in tropical cyclone activity across the various ocean basins is highlighted.
Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Dynamics Prediction and Detection written by Anthony Lupo and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2016-11-02 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today, tropical cyclones continue to bring destruction, as well as disruption, to societies that are exposed to their threat. This book represents a compilation of recent cutting-edge research on tropical cyclones and their impacts from researchers at many institutions around the world. This book contains new looks at tropical cyclone dynamics, the use of satellite-based remote sensing in the detection and climatology of tropical cyclones, and the modeling and prediction of tropical cyclones as well as their associated impacts. This book would make a nice addition to any course on tropical meteorology highlighting topics of interest in recent research on this topic.
Download or read book The Tropical Cyclones of the Indian Ocean written by Great Britain. Admiralty. Eastern Fleet. Office of the Commander-in-Chief and published by . This book was released on 1943 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 2 Climatology and Refinement of Meteorological Knowledge Base written by and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The preliminary adaptation by Bannister et al. (1997) of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting meteorological knowledge base to the Southern Hemisphere has been extended to eight seasons (1990-91 through 1997-98), which includes 145 (90) cyclones in the South Indian (Pacific) region. A total of 3257 synoptic pattern/region classifications could be described in the context of only four synoptic patterns and 11 synoptic regions. Updated track summaries in each pattern/region combination, and the recurring (more than three) environment structure transitions are provided. Refinements in the set of TC-environment transitional mechanisms in the meteorological knowledge base include: (1) new Equatorial Westerly Wind Burst Mechanism; (2) new semi-direct TC interaction equatorward conceptual model; (3) additional variations of the Subtropical Ridge Modulation mechanisms; and (4) further cases of Vertical Wind Shear leading to dramatic TC track changes. These refinements are illustrated with case studies intended to assist the forecaster in recognizing these transitional mechanisms, and thus anticipating TC track changes in the Southern Hemisphere.
