Download or read book MENA Quarterly Economic Brief January 2016 written by Shantayanan Devarajan and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2016-01-29 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This issue of the World Bank MENA Quarterly Economic Brief expects growth in the Middle East and North Africa to fall to 2.6 percent in 2015, from 2.8 percent predicted in October. The short term outlook remains “cautiously pessimistic†?. The poor performance of several MENA economies and their dim prospects for the future are mainly driven by the civil wars that have created death, destruction and significant growth shortfalls in both conflict countries and their neighbors. This report examines the different ways in which civil wars affect the economies of the region, including the important channel of forced displacement, which has become a crisis. Moreover, we explore how economic fortunes will turn around if there is peace. The report concludes that under peace settlement, a permanent transition from non democracy to democracy could improve economic growth significantly in the long run.
Download or read book MENA Quarterly Economic Brief January 2016 written by Shantayanan Devarajan and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The July 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and Permanent Members of the UN Security Council and Germany (P5+1), with the attendant lifting of sanctions on Iran, will have significant consequences for the global, regional and national economies. First, Iran's return to the oil market, coupled with increased production from Libya (should the conflict subside) will keep world oil prices low. Secondly, once sanctions and restrictions on financial transactions are relaxed, Iran's trade, which had both declined in absolute terms and shifted away from Europe towards Asia and the Middle East, is likely to pick up. Thirdly, the Iranian economy, which has been in recession for the past two years, will receive a major boost from increased oil revenues--conservatively estimated at about USD 15 billion in the first year--and lower trade costs. This issue of the MENA Quarterly Economic Brief (QEB) traces these effects on the world oil market, on Iran's trading partners, and on the Iranian economy.
Download or read book MENA Quarterly Economic Brief July 2014 written by Shantayanan Devarajan and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2014-08-06 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This issue of the Quarterly Economic Brief looks at the actual growth performance of these countries and highlights the limitations of forecasting in the wake of the 2011 uprisings, at the consequences of the growth slowdown, including unemployment, where perceptions may diverge from reality. The story is told in fourteen charts.
Download or read book MENA Quarterly Economic Brief July 2016 written by Shantayanan Devarajan and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This issue of the World Bank MENA Quarterly Economic Brief seeks to understand the factors behind the new normal of the oil market to discern the evolution of world oil prices in the future, and their implications for the economies of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Our findings show that the oil price crash of 2014 was preceded by a significant increase in the size and frequency of volatility of oil prices. This volatility in turn contributed to the accumulation of oil inventories, attributing to the decline in oil prices. Noting that, historically, oil price slumps have lasted longer than spikes, we suggest that the current situation in the oil market may persist because of the changing behavior of market players, and the fact that overall oil demand is weak and not expected to rebound anytime soon. We expect the world oil market to work through its current oversupply and rebalance in early 2020 at market-clearing prices that are close to the marginal cost of the last producer (US shale oil producers). Oil prices are likely to be in the range of $53 - $60 a barrel and stay there for several years. The new normal for oil prices will prove difficult for MENA oil producers and could end up overhauling the existing social contract.
Download or read book MENA Quarterly Economic Brief July 2015 written by Shantayanan Devarajan and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Iran and the Permanent Members of the UN Security Council and Germany (P5+1) reached a deal on July 14, 2015 that limits Iranian nuclear activity in return for lifting all international sanctions that were placed on Iran (Box 1). This issue of the MENA Quarterly Economic Brief (QEB) traces the economic effects of this development--removing sanctions on Iran--on the world oil market, on Iran's trading partners, and on the Iranian economy.
Download or read book MENA Quarterly Economic Brief July 2014 written by Shanta Devarajan and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book MENA Quarterly Economic Brief July 2014 written by and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This issue of the Quarterly Economic Brief looks at the actual growth performance of these countries and highlights the limitations of forecasting in the wake of the 2011 uprisings, at the consequences of the growth slowdown, including unemployment, where perceptions may diverge from reality. The story is told in fourteen charts.
Download or read book Middle East and North Africa Quarterly Economic Brief January 2015 written by Shantayanan Devarajan and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-01-31 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the three months since most observers, including the World Bank, issued their last forecasts, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region has changed substantially. Political tensions have eased somewhat with presidential and legislative elections completed in a few countries. Egypt’s cabinet approved the electoral constituencies’ law, the last step before calling for the House of Representatives elections, the final milestone in the political roadmap initiated in July 2013. Presidential elections were held in Tunisia, with Beji Caid Essebsi sworn in as the new president in December. Iran’s nuclear talks with the P5+1 were extended for 6 months--while bilateral talks continue—with the aim of reaching a deal in July 2015. In Iraq, the government and the Kurdish region reached an agreement in December resolving a longstanding dispute over the budget and distribution of oil revenues. Meanwhile, Lebanon, Yemen and Libya still struggle to maintain a functional government. The global economy is estimated to have expanded by 2.6 percent (q/q annualized rate), better than the second quarter of 2014, but unchanged from the slow pace seen in 2012 and 2013. But the most important development is that international oil prices have literally collapsed, reaching a level below $50 per barrel (Brent crude) in early January, a drop of 50 percent since their peak in mid-June 2014.
Download or read book Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor October 2016 written by Devarajan, Shantayanan and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2016-08-23 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The year 2016 appears to be one of the toughest for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as their governments face serious policy challenges. The biggest challenge for oil exporters is managing their finances and diversification strategies with oil below $45 a barrel. Fiscal consolidation in a difficult sociopolitical environment and spillovers from conflicts are creating challenges for oil importers as well. Real GOP growth in MENA for 2016 is projected to fall to its lowest level since 2013 -- 2.3 percent -- lower than last year's growth by half a percentage point and about one percentage point lower than predicted in April 2016. It is clear that the disappointing performance of the MENA economies, and possibly the global economy, is partly due to the rise of terrorist attacks and spread of violent extremism. In this report, we attempt to shed light on the underlying causes of this phenomenon by applying an economic perspective to the demand for and supply of violent extremists. Looking at a dataset on foreign fighters joining Daesh, we find that the factors most strongly associated with foreign individuals' joining Daesh have to do with a lack of inclusion -- economic, social and religious -- in their country of origin. Promoting greater inclusion, therefore, could not only bring down the level of violent extremism, but it could improve economic performance in the MENA region."
Download or read book Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor April 2016 written by Shantayanan Devarajan and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2016-04-11 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The short term economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region remains “cautiously pessimistic†?. A combination of civil wars and refugee inflows, terrorist attacks, cheap oil, and subdued global economic recovery is expected to keep average growth in the MENA region around 3 percent in 2016, for the fourth year in a row. Furthermore, the humanitarian and economic situation in the war torn countries keep deteriorating. In this report we will explore ways in which a strategy of reconstruction of Syria—the most war-ravaged country in the region—could help foster a sustainable peace. This report argues that the impact of the civil war on the Syrian society will be persistent, and the challenges facing the country need to be addressed now. The report calls for the international community to be the guarantor of an inclusive reconstruction strategy that not only makes peace sustainable tomorrow, but makes it happen today: peace and reconstruction are two sides of the same coin.
Download or read book The Economic Impact of Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa written by Mr.Bjoern Rother and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-16 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.
Download or read book The Political Economy of Emerging Markets written by Richard Westra and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-03-16 with total page 421 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rapid and sustained growth in the twenty-first-century global economy of large developing economies including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, has captivated policy-makers and popular business press pundits alike. The coining of the new acronym BRICS and widespread adoption in international economics discourse of the designation "emerging markets" is symptomatic of that interest. The Political Economy of Emerging Markets situates the BRICS phenomena in the global economic context of advanced economies continuing to languish in recession and hovering over a deflationary abyss several years after the meltdown. A key question this volume seeks to answer is whether the BRICS and so-called "emerging market" phenomenon is really the new miracle it is presented as, offering new or modified varieties of reloaded capitalist development to the world, or yet another mirage. Written by ten leading global experts, this book answers the tough questions over BRICS and emerging markets potentially realizing new varieties of reloaded capitalism. It is not only international and interdisciplinary but uniquely multiperspectival. Theories framing chapters are not of one genre, but generate theoretical debate at the frontier of knowledge in political economy along with nuanced empirical analysis which flows from it. This book is of great importance to those who study political economy, development economics and international political economy.
Download or read book Regional Economic Integration in the Middle East and North Africa written by Mustapha Rouis and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2012-12-11 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book summarizes the constraints to and opportunities for deepening economic integration within the MENA region and beyond. Trade and investment reform are discussed together with physical connectivity, cross-border trade facilitation, infrastructure networks, and the vital role of logistics.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook April 2016 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Major macroeconomic realignments are affecting prospects differentially across the world’s countries and regions. The April 2016 WEO examines the causes and implications of these realignments—including the slowdown and rebalancing in China, a further decline in commodity prices, a related slowdown in investment and trade, and declining capital flows to emerging market and developing economies—which are generating substantial uncertainty and affecting the outlook for the global economy. Additionally, analytical chapters examine the slowdown in capital flows to emerging market economies since their 2010 peak—its main characteristics, how it compares with past slowdowns, the factors that are driving it, and whether exchange rate flexibility has changed the dynamics of the capital inflow cycle—and assess whether product and labor market reforms can improve the economic outlook in advanced economies, looking at the recent evolution and scope for further reform, the channels through which reforms affect economic activity under strong versus weak economic conditions, reforms’ short- to medium-term macroeconomic effects, and sequencing of reforms and coordination with other policies to maximize their potential quantitative economic benefits. A special feature analyzes in depth the energy transition in an era of low fossil fuel prices.
Download or read book Statebuilding in the Middle East and North Africa written by Irene Costantini and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-03-26 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the regime changes in Iraq and Libya to unravel the complexity of statebuilding in countries emerging from authoritarianism and conflict in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Framed in a comparative study of post-2003 Iraq and post-2011 Libya, the book examines changes in key state dimensions – representation and political authority, security, and wealth creation and distribution – in a continuous dialogue with past trajectories in these two countries. To grasp the nature and degree of these changes, the mechanisms of state formation are explored in light of a statebuilding agenda that, in its application from Iraq to Libya, has adapted to different political prerogatives. The analysis of Iraq and Libya serves the book’s ultimate goal to address the debate on statebuilding from a regional (MENA) perspective and to lay the ground for the study of other contemporary cases undergoing radical and violent process of changes, such as in Syria and Yemen. The book grapples with problems associated with the difficult process of transition from authoritarianism through conflict and towards peace by focusing on the state, its structure and function. The work is informed by a large quantity of materials collected over the past five years, including secondary literature, policy papers and reports, and semi-structured interviews with key informants on Iraq and Libya. This book will be of much interest to students of statebuilding, Middle Eastern studies, peace and conflict studies, and International Relations in general.
Download or read book Natural Resource Abundance Growth and Diversification in the Middle East and North Africa written by Ndiame' Diop and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2012-10-01 with total page 229 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: MENA holds more than 60% of oil and nearly 50% of gas reserves, making its economy very vulnerable to price fluctuations. This volume investigates the effect of natural resources and the role of policies on achieving higher and sustained growth through economic diversification.
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects June 2016 written by World Bank Group and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2016-07-13 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth prospects have deteriorated in 2016. Emerging market and developing economies are facing increased external headwinds, including softer growth in advanced economies. Commodity exporters are struggling with particularly challenging conditions, while commodity importers are thus far showing greater resilience. Global growth is expected to gradually accelerate in 2017-18 but risks to the outlook are increasingly more pronounced. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and prospects, this edition of Global Economic Prospects includes two Special Focus essays of critical importance for emerging and developing economies: an analysis of the buildup of private debt in emerging and frontier markets and a quantitative study of uncertainties surrounding global growth. This year marks the 25th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that has, since its inception in 1991, examined international economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies. It has also included analytical essays on a wide range of topical macroeconomic, financial, and structural policy challenges faced by these economies. It is published on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges, while the June edition contains shorter analytical essays.
