Download or read book Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries written by and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries written by Diego A. Comin and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Empirical evidence - including the current global crisis - suggests that shocks from advanced countries often have a disproportionate effect on developing economies. Can this account for the fact that aggregate fluctuations are larger and more persistent in the latter than in the former economies? And what are the mechanisms at play? This paper addresses these questions using a model of an industrial and a developing economy trading goods and assets, with (i) a product cycle shaping the range of intermediate goods used to produce new capital in each country, and (ii) investment adjustment costs in the developing economy. Innovation by the advanced economy results in new intermediate goods, at first produced at home, and eventually transferred to the developing economy through direct investment. The pace of innovation and technology transfer is driven by profitability. This process of technology diffusion creates a medium-term connection between both economies, over and above the short-term link through trade. Calibration of the model to match Mexico-United States trade and foreign direct investment flows shows that this mechanism can explain why shocks to the United States economy have a larger effect on Mexico than on the United States itself, and hence why Mexico shows higher volatility than the United States; why business cycles in the United States lead to medium-term fluctuations in Mexico; and why consumption is not less volatile than output in Mexico.
Download or read book Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Download or read book International Medium term Business Cycles written by and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Foreign driven medium-term oscillations that originate from fluctuations in technological frontier countries gained widespread attention among policymakers. To study this phenomenon in the context of domestic and other foreign drivers of the euro area business cycle, we develop a medium-scale, two-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with endogenous growth and estimate it with Bayesian methods for the United States and the euro area for the period from 1984:Q1 to 2017:Q4. The framework suggests that foreign shocks can be a substantial source of medium-term oscillations that contribute to pro-cyclicality of real GDP across countries. Notably, US shocks to liquidity preference and trade demand explain more than a third of the euro area downturn during the Great Recession.
Download or read book The Sources of Business Cycles in a Low Income Country written by Romain Houssa and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-25 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the role of global and domestic shocks in driving macroeconomic fluctuations for Ghana. We are able to study the impact of exogenous shocks including productivity, credit supply, and commodity price shocks. We identify the shocks with a combination of sign and recursive restrictions within Bayesian VAR models. As a benchmark we provide results for South Africa to document the difference between two economies with similar structures but different levels of development. We find that global shocks play a more dominant role in South Africa than in Ghana. These shocks operate through three channels: trade, credit and commodity prices.
Download or read book Patterns of Economic Growth written by Lant Pritchett and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1998 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Developing Country Business Cycles written by Rachel Male and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Classical business cycles, following Burns and Mitchell (1946), can be defined as the sequential pattern of expansions and contractions in aggregate economic activity. Recently, Harding and Pagan (2002, 2006) have provided an econometric toolkit for the analysis of these cycles, and this has resulted in a recent surge in researchers using these methods to analyse developing country business cycles. However, the existing literature consists of diminutive samples and the majority fail to consider the statistical significance of the concordance statistics. To address this shortfall, this paper examines the business cycle characteristics and synchronicity for thirty-two developing countries. Furthermore, the US, the UK and Japan are included; this provides benchmarks upon which to compare the characteristics of the developing country cycles and also to examine the degree of synchronisation between developed and developing countries. Significantly, this research reveals that business cycles of developing countries are not, as previously believed, significantly shorter than those of the developed countries. However, the amplitude of both expansion and contraction phases tends to be greater in the developing countries. Furthermore a clear relationship between the timing of business cycle fluctuations and periods of significant regional crises, such as the Asian Financial Crisis, is exhibited. However, the more specific timing of the onset of these fluctuations appears to be determined by country-specific factors. Moreover, there are no clear patterns of concordance either within regions or between developed and developing country business cycles. -- Classical business cycle ; Turning points ; Synchronisation ; Concordance ; Contagion ; Developing economies
Download or read book Medium Term Business Cycles written by Diego Comin and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the postwar, the U.S., Europe and Japan have experienced what may be thought of as medium frequency oscillations between persistent periods of robust growth and persistent periods of relative stagnation. These medium frequency movements, further, appear to bear some relation to the high frequency volatility of output. That is, periods of stagnation are often associated with significant recessions, while persistent booms typically are either free of recessions or are interrupted only by very modest downturns. In this paper we explore the idea of medium term cycles, which we define as reflecting the sum of the high and medium frequency variation in the data. We develop a methodology for identifying these kinds of fluctuations and then show that a number of important macroeconomic time series exhibit significant medium term cycles. The cycles feature strong procyclical movements in both disembodied and embodied technological change, research & development, and the efficiency of resource utilization. We then develop a model to explain the medium term cycle that features both disembodied and embodied endogenous technological change, along with countercyclical markups and variable factor utilization. The model is able to generate medium term fluctuations in output, technological change, and resource utilization that resemble the data, with a non-technological shock as the exogenous disturbance. In particular the model offers a unified approach to explaining both high and medium frequency variation in aggregate business activity
Download or read book The Great Recession and Developing Countries written by Mustapha K. Nabli and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2010-12-03 with total page 666 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book provides one of the most detailed and comprehensive reviews of the growth experience of a group of low and middle income countries before and during the global crisis. It then explores their growth prospects after the recovery and how they may be shaped by the new global economic environment.
Download or read book Global Business Cycles and Developing Countries written by Eri Ikeda and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-09-17 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book investigates how global business cycles impact the economies of developing countries. Global business cycles, the wave-like movements of economic expansion followed by contraction in aggregate economic activities, impact all economies comprising the global economy. The patterns being shown in developing countries correspond increasingly to those in the global north, and yet there is a relative dearth of studies exploring whether global business cycles exist and how they operate in developing economies. This book explores how cycles operate at the global and sub-global developing country levels, with a particular focus on the level of development and the structure of the economies. Drawing an important distinction between cycles and fluctuations, the book criticises mainstream conceptualisation and identification of cycle phenomena, and instead proposes an alternative conception and methodology for the identification of cycles. Along the way, the book also delves into the manufacturing and rise of China, and other potential competitors in the industrial arena, as increasingly important drivers of global cycles and global economic growth. This book will be an important read for researchers and upper-level students of development economics and international political economy.
Download or read book The Terms of Trade and Economic Fluctuations written by Mr.Enrique G. Mendoza and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-11-01 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A three-good, stochastic intertemporal equilibrium model of a small open economy is used to examine the link between terms of trade and business cycles. Equilibrium co-movements of model economies representing industrial and developing countries are computed and compared with the stylized facts of 30 countries. The results show that terms-of-trade shocks account for half of observed output variability and that the model mimics the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect and produces large deviations from purchasing power parity. The elasticity of substitution between tradable and nontradable goods and the persistence of the shocks play a key role in producing these results.
Download or read book Business Cycles in Small Developed Economies The Role of Terms of Trade and Foreign Interest Rate Shocks written by Jaime Guajardo and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2008-04-01 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Empirical evidence for small developed economies finds that consumption is procyclical and as volatile as output, and real net exports are coutercyclical. Earlier studies have not been able to reproduce these regularities in a DSGE small open economy model when productivity shocks drive the business cycles and households have a normal intertemporal elasticity of substitution. Instead, these studies have reduced this elasticity to make consumption more procyclical and volatile and real net exports countercyclical. This paper shows that a standard model can reproduce these regularities, without lowering the intertemporal substitution, if the terms of trade and foreign interest rate are added as source of business cycle fluctuations. These shocks, compared to productivity shocks, make consumption and investment more volatile and procyclical relative to output, and make real net exports countercyclical.
Download or read book Political Business Cycles written by Bruno S. Frey and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 1997 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A collection of articles on how the government influences the economy in order to secure re-election. This book surveys the empirical and major theoretical approaches, such as vote maximization, partisan and vote-cum-partisan models, and rational political business cycles. It provides extensions including the role of the central bank, of direct democracy, and the cycles in European communist countries, as well as discussing policy relevance.
Download or read book The American Business Cycle written by Robert J. Gordon and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 882 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.
Download or read book Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-03 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper documents the main stylized features of macroeconomic fluctuations for 12 developing countries. Cross-correlations between domestic industrial output and a large group of macroeconomic variables (including fiscal variables, wages, inflation, money, credit, trade, and exchange rates) are presented. Also analyzed are the effects of industrial country economic conditions on output fluctuations in these countries. The robustness of the results is examined using different detrending procedures. The results indicate many similarities between macroeconomic fluctuations in developing and industrial countries (procyclical real wages; countercyclical variation in government expenditure) and some important differences (countercyclical variation in the velocity of monetary aggregates).
Download or read book Economic Cycles Crises and the Global Periphery written by Leonid Grinin and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-27 with total page 265 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thought-provoking monograph analyzes long- medium- and short-term global cycles of prosperity, recession, and depression, plotting them against centuries of important world events. Major research on economic and political cycles is integrated to clarify evolving relationships between the global center and its periphery as well as current worldwide economic upheavals and potential future developments. Central to this survey are successive waves of industrial and, later, technological and cybernetic progress, leading to the current era of globalization and the changes of the roles of both Western powers and former minors players, however that will lead to the formation of the world order without a hegemon. Additionally, the authors predict what they term the Great Convergence, the lessening of inequities between the global core and the rest of the world, including the wealth gap between First and Third World nations. Among the topics in this ambitious volume: · Why politics is often omitted from economic analysis. · Why economic cycles are crucial to understanding the modern geopolitical landscape. · How the aging of the developed world will affect world technological and economic future.“/p> · The evolving technological forecast for Global North and South. · Where the U.S. is likely to stand on the future world stage. Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery will inspire discussion and debate among sociologists, global economists, demographers, global historians, and futurologists. This expert knowledge is necessary for further research, proactive response, and preparedness for a new age of sociopolitical change.
