Download or read book Measuring the Effects of Firm Uncertainty on Economic Activity written by Kyle Handley and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We construct a new measure of firm-level uncertainty from analyzing the text of mandatory reports filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Using firm and establishment level panel data on investment margins and employment dynamics, we find our uncertainty measure has large effects on investment even after controlling for industry and time-varying shocks. Periods of high firm uncertainty (1) reduce investment rates by 0.5% and attenuate the response to positive sales shocks by about half and (2) reduce employment growth rates by 1.4% and the response to positive sales shocks by 30%. Firms are less responsive to demand shocks at the firm level and across establishments within the firm. Consistent with "wait and see" dynamics, uncertainty affects new investment activity, e.g. plant births and acquisition, more than disinvestment margins.

Download or read book The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the UK Economy written by MissStephanie Denis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-03-08 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper quantifies the economic impact of uncertainty shocks in the UK using data that span the recent Great Recession. We find that uncertainty shocks have a significant impact on economic activity in the UK, depressing industrial production and GDP. The peak impact is felt fairly quickly at around 6-12 months after the shock, and becomes statistically negligible after 18 months. Interestingly, the impact of uncertainty shocks on industrial production in the UK is strikingly similar to that of the US both in terms of the shape and magnitude of the response. However, unemployment in the UK is less affected by uncertainty shocks. Finally, we find that uncertainty shocks can account for about a quarter of the decline in industrial production during the Great Recession.

Download or read book Measuring Firm Level Uncertainty written by Maria Tito and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ample empirical research documents the negative effect of uncertainty on economic activity. Unexpected changes in macroeconomic conditions or doubts about the direction of future policy tend to be associated with lower capital investments, reduced hiring, and slower consumer spending.

Download or read book Uncertainty and Economic Activity Evidence from Business Survey Data written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Uncertainty and Unemployment written by Sangyup Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-23 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.

Download or read book Measuring Micro and Macro Uncertainty written by Yang Liu and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 103 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation aims at building alternative measures of economic uncertainty from micro data. The resulting panel measurements enable investigations of real uncertainty effects at the individual, firm, industry, and macro level. Two uncertainty models are introduced to demonstrate additional channels through which uncertainty poses impacts on economic activities. In the first chapter, I propose a novel firm-level uncertainty measure based on the latent conditional volatility of forecast errors. By applying this measure to I/B/E/S database, I track 1,916 U.S. public companies' uncertainties for over 34 years. The firm-level measurements are then aggregated into a macro uncertainty index and the implications at the macro- and micro-level are compared. At the macro level, VAR results indicate a strong "granular origin'' of real uncertainty effects from large firms in addition to the classical short-lived "drop and rebound'' effect. At the firm level, panel regression results confirm the negative impact of macro uncertainty on firm investment and reveal a composite effect of idiosyncratic uncertainty that depends on investment horizon, firm profitability and magnitude of shock (Empirical results are also shown in Chapter 2). The second chapter introduces two uncertainty models that show channels other than "real option'' and "risk aversion & risk premia'' in contemporary literature. The first model is based on Lucas Island Model and Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). It tries to understand the uncertainty effects from the perspective of inefficient expectation and the resulting underproduction problem. The second model inherits New-Keynesian assumptions and features a competition mechanism. It emphasizes the real loss from unexpected supply and demand shocks. Both models include idiosyncratic and macro uncertainty as separate factors and predict a generally negative impact of macro uncertainty versus a composite effect of idiosyncratic uncertainty. In the third chapter, I propose a new measure of macroeconomic uncertainty that incorporates rich information set from U.S. SPF density forecasts. The measure has two key advantages over traditional measures: (i) it reflects the subjective perceptions of market participants; (ii) it is an ex-ante measure that does not require the knowledge of realized outcomes. I study the features of this measure of macroeconomic uncertainty and explore its impact on real economic activities within the U.S. as well as its spillover effects on BRIC countries. The Appendix discusses the methodology used in Chapter 3.

Download or read book Investment under Uncertainty written by Robert K. Dixit and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-07-14 with total page 484 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.

Download or read book The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity What are the Channels of Impact written by Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global temperatures have increased at an unprecedented pace in the past 40 years. This paper finds that increases in temperature have uneven macroeconomic effects, with adverse consequences concentrated in countries with hot climates, such as most low-income countries. In these countries, a rise in temperature lowers per capita output, in both the short and medium term, through a wide array of channels: reduced agricultural output, suppressed productivity of workers exposed to heat, slower investment, and poorer health. In an unmitigated climate change scenario, and under very conservative assumptions, model simulations suggest the projected rise in temperature would imply a loss of around 9 percent of output for a representative low-income country by 2100.

Download or read book Uncertainty and Sectoral Shifts written by Alon Kalay and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study predicts and finds that the interaction of firm-level and aggregate-level shocks explains a significant portion of shocks to macroeconomic activity. Specifically, we hypothesize that the relation between uncertainty and economic growth is most pronounced when both firm-level and aggregate level uncertainty are high simultaneously. Similarly, we hypothesize that aggregate performance affects unemployment most when both firm-level dispersion is high and aggregate performance is low, based on the sectoral shift theory. Our hypotheses and empirical results show that the interactive effect of firm-level and aggregate-level shocks are larger than the sum of the individual effects.

Download or read book Risk Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

Download or read book Measuring Entrepreneurial Businesses written by John Haltiwanger and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2017-09-21 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Measuring Entrepreneurial Businesses: Current Knowledge and Challenges brings together and unprecedented group of economists, data providers, and data analysts to discuss research on the state of entrepreneurship and to address the challenges in understanding this dynamic part of the economy. Each chapter addresses the challenges of measuring entrepreneurship and how entrepreneurial firms contribute to economies and standards of living. The book also investigates heterogeneity in entrepreneurs, challenges experienced by entrepreneurs over time, and how much less we know than we think about entrepreneurship given data limitations. This volume will be a groundbreaking first serious look into entrepreneurship in the NBER's Income and Wealth series.

Download or read book Bank Liquidity Creation and Financial Crises written by Allen N. Berger and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2015-11-24 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bank Liquidity Creation and Financial Crises delivers a consistent, logical presentation of bank liquidity creation and addresses questions of research and policy interest that can be easily understood by readers with no advanced or specialized industry knowledge. Authors Allen Berger and Christa Bouwman examine ways to measure bank liquidity creation, how much liquidity banks create in different countries, the effects of monetary policy (including interest rate policy, lender of last resort, and quantitative easing), the effects of capital, the effects of regulatory interventions, the effects of bailouts, and much more. They also analyze bank liquidity creation in the US over the past three decades during both normal times and financial crises. Narrowing the gap between the "academic world" (focused on theories) and the "practitioner world" (dedicated to solving real-world problems), this book is a helpful new tool for evaluating a bank's performance over time and comparing it to its peer group. - Explains that bank liquidity creation is a more comprehensive measure of a bank's output than traditional measures and can also be used to measure bank liquidity - Describes how high levels of bank liquidity creation may cause or predict future financial crises - Addresses questions of research and policy interest related to bank liquidity creation around the world and provides links to websites with data and other materials to address these questions - Includes such hot-button topics as the effects of monetary policy (including interest rate policy, lender of last resort, and quantitative easing), the effects of capital, the effects of regulatory interventions, and the effects of bailouts

Download or read book High Wage Workers and High Wage Firms written by John M. Abowd and published by Université de Montréal, Centre de recherche et développement en économique. This book was released on 1994 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study a longitudinal sample of over one million French workers and over 500,000 employing firms. Real total annual compensation per worker is decomposed into components related to observable characteristics, worker heterogeneity, firm heterogeneity and residual variation. Except for the residual, all components may be correlated in an arbitrary fashion. At the level of the individual, we find that person-effects, especially those not related to observables like education, are the most important source of wage variation in France. Firm-effects, while important, are not as important as person-effects. At the level of firms, we find that enterprises that hire high-wage workers are more productive but not more profitable. They are also more capital and high-skilled employee intensive. Enterprises that pay higher wages, controlling for person-effects, are more productive and more profitable. They are also more capital intensive but are not more high-skilled labor intensive. We also find that person-effects explain 92% of inter-industry wage differentials.

Download or read book Emerging Markets and the Global Economy written by Mohammed El Hedi Arouri and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2013-12-26 with total page 927 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Emerging Markets and the Global Economy investigates analytical techniques suited to emerging market economies, which are typically prone to policy shocks. Despite the large body of emerging market finance literature, their underlying dynamics and interactions with other economies remain challenging and mysterious because standard financial models measure them imprecisely. Describing the linkages between emerging and developed markets, this collection systematically explores several crucial issues in asset valuation and risk management. Contributors present new theoretical constructions and empirical methods for handling cross-country volatility and sudden regime shifts. Usually attractive for investors because of the superior growth they can deliver, emerging markets can have a low correlation with developed markets. This collection advances your knowledge about their inherent characteristics. Foreword by Ali M. Kutan - Concentrates on post-crisis roles of emerging markets in the global economy - Reports on key theoretical and technical developments in emerging financial markets - Forecasts future developments in linkages among developed and emerging economies

Download or read book How to Write about Economics and Public Policy written by Katerina Petchko and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2018-07-12 with total page 474 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How to Write about Economics and Public Policy is designed to guide graduate students through conducting, and writing about, research on a wide range of topics in public policy and economics. This guidance is based upon the actual writing practices of professional researchers in these fields and it will appeal to practitioners and students in disciplinary areas such as international economics, macroeconomics, development economics, public finance, policy studies, policy analysis, and public administration. Supported by real examples from professional and student writers, the book helps students understand what is expected of writers in their field and guides them through choosing a topic for research to writing each section of the paper. This book would be equally effective as a classroom text or a self-study resource. - Teaches students how to write about qualitative and quantitative research in public policy and economics in a way that is suitable for academic consumption and that can drive public policy debates - Uses the genre-based approach to writing to teach discipline-appropriate ways of framing problems, designing studies, and writing and structuring content - Includes authentic examples written by students and international researchers from various sub-disciplines of economics and public policy - Contains strategies and suggestions for textual analysis of research samples to give students an opportunity to practice key points explained in the book - Is based on a comprehensive analysis of a research corpus containing 400+ research articles in various areas of public policy and economics

Download or read book Banking and Finance written by Razali Haron and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2020-12-23 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The banking and finance industry plays a significant role in the economy of a nation. As such, continuous research and up-to-date feeds are necessary for it to stay competitive and resilient. Due to its revolving and dynamic nature as well as its significance and interlinkages with other industries, a well-functioning banking and finance system is vital in safeguarding the interest of all stakeholders. Banking and Finance covers a wide range of essential topics highlighting major issues related to banking and finance. The book is rich with empirical evidence, scientific researches, best practices, and recommendations, making it a compact yet handy reference for readers, especially those who are in the field of banking and finance.

Download or read book Business Tendency Surveys A Handbook written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2003-03-20 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook is a practical manual on the design and implementation of business tendency surveys, which ask company managers about the current situation of their business and about their plans and expectations for the future.