Download or read book What Is in Your Output Gap Unified Framework Decomposition into Observables written by Michal Andrle and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-10 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses several popular methods to estimate the ‘output gap’. It provides a unified, natural concept for the analysis, and demonstrates how to decompose the output gap into contributions of observed data on output, inflation, unemployment, and other variables. A simple bar-chart of contributing factors, in the case of multi-variable methods, sharpens the intuition behind the estimates and ultimately shows ‘what is in your output gap.’ The paper demonstrates how to interpret effects of data revisions and new data releases for output gap estimates (news effects) and how to obtain more insight into real-time properties of estimators.
Download or read book Modeling and Control of Economic Systems 2001 written by R. Neck and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2003-05-21 with total page 443 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume contains papers presented at the IFAC symposium on Modeling and control of Economic Systems (SME 2001), which was held at the university of Klagenfurt, Austria. The symposium brought together scientists and users to explore current theoretical developments of modeling techniques for economic systems. It contains a section of plenary, invited and contributed papers presented at the SME 2001 symposium. The papers presented in this volume reflect advances both in methodology and in applications in the area of modeling and control of economic systems.
Download or read book GAUSS Programs for the Estimation of State space Models with ARCH Errors written by Maral Kichian and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this paper is to explain the use of the GAUSS programs developed to estimate a state-space model with autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (ARCH) errors. The programs are based on the Harvey, Ruiz & Sentana (1992) paper, are flexible, and allow the user to estimate a wide variety of economic models with or without ARCH errors. The impetus for writing these programs came from the need to estimate an unobserved components model with ARCH expectations for the explicit purposes of estimating Canadian potential output and forecasting inflation. Section 2 of the paper presents the model and explains notations. Section 3 explains the GAUSS code, indicating which parts to modify in order to set up a particular model. Section 4 contains two examples that demonstrate the flexibility and limitations of the code.
Download or read book The Euro Area Business Cycle written by Lucrezia Reichlin and published by Centre for Economic Policy Research. This book was released on 2004 with total page 103 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Measuring Potential Output Within a State space Framework written by Maral Kichian and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Comparing Semi structural Methods to Estimate Unobserved Variables written by Laurence Boone and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Review written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 504 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Vietnam written by Wojciech Maliszewski and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-06-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper constructs a new output gap measure for Vietnam by applying Bayesian methods to a two-equation AS-AD model, while treating the output gap as an unobservable series to be estimated together with other parameters. Model coefficients are easily interpretable, and the output gap series is consistent with a broader analysis of economic developments. Output gaps obtained from the HP detrending are subject to larger revisions than series obtained from a suitably adjusted model, and may be misleading compared to the model-based measure.
Download or read book The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time written by Athanasios Orphanides and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Measuring Potential Output Within a State space Framework written by Maral Kichian and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output written by Patrick Blagrave and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-07 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to those of naïve statistical filters, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates. The paper presents estimates for 16 countries and provides an example of how the filtered estimates at the end of the sample period can be improved with additional information.
Download or read book A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States written by Ali Alichi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-30 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The gap between potential and actual output—the output gap—is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S. economy. The results show that the output gap has considerably shrunk since the Great Recession, but still remains negative. While the results are more robust than other existing methodologies, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates.
Download or read book Potential Output written by Kieran McMorrow and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recoge: Introductory remarks - Section 1: Measurement of potential output: Statistical V economic approaches - Section 2: Potential output and output gap estimates for EU15 and US: HP filter production function approaches - Section 3: "New" Economy effects on potential growth: Comparison of US and EU15 performances - Secction 4: EU15 and US potential growth scnarios for the period 2001-2010 - Annexes.
Download or read book Keep Reforming China s Strategic Economic Transformation written by Zhong Xu and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-10-21 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about China’s economy transformation. Currently, China’s macro-leverage ratio has been effectively controlled, the central market interest rate (one year fixed interest rate) has gone down, and liquidity is now relatively abundant. However, financial institutions are generally reluctant to lend, the local governments are unwilling to act, and the fact that liquidity released by the central bank cannot be effectively transmitted to the real economy is leading to a contraction of credit and higher financing costs for private enterprises. Meanwhile, the downturn in the internal economic cycle has been exacerbated by the external shocks caused by frictions in Sino-US trade, and this set of circumstances has contributed to the polarization of expectations regarding China's real economic prospects and policy trends, as seen, for example, in the questions and discussions about policy trends relevant to the private economy. Indeed, one might claim that the current confusion of expectations even exceeds that of 2008, when the international financial crisis breaks out. From a dialectical perspective, the more pessimistic expectation of economic trend, the easier it is to build consensus on reform, and the more remarkable actual effects of reform, which must be based on a comprehensive understanding of the phased characteristics of China’s economic development. In this book, based on the experience working in central bank of China, the author argues that China’s policy should focus on internal demand. In the coming period, China needs to persevere in the market orientation, step up reform and opening up, and create a favorable business environment. This book represents the following opinions: First, to reach a common understanding of the medium and high economic growth, and avoid the dream of high growth. Second, to stick to supply-side structural reform, accelerate economic transformation and structural adjustment, and further unleash the reform dividends and growth potential. The long-term and structural problems cannot be attributed to short-term and cyclical problems. Third, the challenges of external shocks could be also regarded as opportunities, which include but not limited to accelerate reform to improve property rights protection, state-owned capital management, corporate governance, income distribution, and social security. Fourth, whenever the trade friction happens, a multilateral framework is always helpful.
Download or read book Monthly Review Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis written by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Adaptive Systems in Control and Signal Processing 1989 written by T.S. Durrani and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2014-06-28 with total page 629 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Symposium covered three major areas: adaptive control, identification and signal processing. In all three, new developments were discussed covering both theoretical and applications research. Within the subject area of adaptive control the discussion centred around the challenges of robust control design to unmodelled dynamics, robust parameter estimation and enhanced performance from the estimator, while the papers on identification took the theme of it being a bridge between adaptive control and signal processing. The final area looked at two aspects of signal processing: recursive estimation and adaptive filters.
Download or read book Introduction To Control Systems An 2nd Edition written by Kevin Warwick and published by World Scientific Publishing Company. This book was released on 1996-01-31 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This significantly revised edition presents a broad introduction to Control Systems and balances new, modern methods with the more classical. It is an excellent text for use as a first course in Control Systems by undergraduate students in all branches of engineering and applied mathematics. The book contains: A comprehensive coverage of automatic control, integrating digital and computer control techniques and their implementations, the practical issues and problems in Control System design; the three-term PID controller, the most widely used controller in industry today; numerous in-chapter worked examples and end-of-chapter exercises. This second edition also includes an introductory guide to some more recent developments, namely fuzzy logic control and neural networks.
