Download or read book Measuring Micro and Macro Uncertainty written by Yang Liu and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 103 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation aims at building alternative measures of economic uncertainty from micro data. The resulting panel measurements enable investigations of real uncertainty effects at the individual, firm, industry, and macro level. Two uncertainty models are introduced to demonstrate additional channels through which uncertainty poses impacts on economic activities. In the first chapter, I propose a novel firm-level uncertainty measure based on the latent conditional volatility of forecast errors. By applying this measure to I/B/E/S database, I track 1,916 U.S. public companies' uncertainties for over 34 years. The firm-level measurements are then aggregated into a macro uncertainty index and the implications at the macro- and micro-level are compared. At the macro level, VAR results indicate a strong "granular origin'' of real uncertainty effects from large firms in addition to the classical short-lived "drop and rebound'' effect. At the firm level, panel regression results confirm the negative impact of macro uncertainty on firm investment and reveal a composite effect of idiosyncratic uncertainty that depends on investment horizon, firm profitability and magnitude of shock (Empirical results are also shown in Chapter 2). The second chapter introduces two uncertainty models that show channels other than "real option'' and "risk aversion & risk premia'' in contemporary literature. The first model is based on Lucas Island Model and Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). It tries to understand the uncertainty effects from the perspective of inefficient expectation and the resulting underproduction problem. The second model inherits New-Keynesian assumptions and features a competition mechanism. It emphasizes the real loss from unexpected supply and demand shocks. Both models include idiosyncratic and macro uncertainty as separate factors and predict a generally negative impact of macro uncertainty versus a composite effect of idiosyncratic uncertainty. In the third chapter, I propose a new measure of macroeconomic uncertainty that incorporates rich information set from U.S. SPF density forecasts. The measure has two key advantages over traditional measures: (i) it reflects the subjective perceptions of market participants; (ii) it is an ex-ante measure that does not require the knowledge of realized outcomes. I study the features of this measure of macroeconomic uncertainty and explore its impact on real economic activities within the U.S. as well as its spillover effects on BRIC countries. The Appendix discusses the methodology used in Chapter 3.

Download or read book The Standardization of Major Well to Wheel Models written by Hassan M. El-Houjeiri and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Difference Between Micro And Macro Economic Measurement To Consumer Behavior written by Johnny Ch LOK and published by Independently Published. This book was released on 2019-11-20 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Behavioral economy consumption desires measurement methodHow to apply behavioral economic theory to measure consumption level or consumption desire to the country? I shall assume that consumption is to be measured by private and public expenditures at constant prices at conventionally defined and all money prices are assumed constant. How to measure real consumption?In fact, consumer behavior has relationship to any country, itself economic growth or recesion in any economic and consumption environment . The purpose of income calculations in practiced affairs to give consumers an indication of the amount which they can consume. It would seem that we ought to define a man's income as the maximum value, which he can consume during a week, and still expect to be well at the end of week as he has at the beginning.An economy which uses money , but uses it is as a neutral link between transactions in real things and real assets and does not want of a better , a real exchange economy with an economy in which money plays a part of its own and affects motives and decisions and as , in short, one of the operative factors in the situation. So that the course of events can not be predicted either in the long period or in the short period, without knowledge of the behavior of money between the first state and last. It is a monetary economy means to influence any country itself consumer behavioral consumption desires change to more or less shopping times.Hence, money matters in both the long and short run. Money affects real decision making and employment and output outcomes to any countries. The economic system is moving through calendar time from an irrevocable past to an uncertain and statistically unpredictable future. Any country's past and present consumption market data do not necessary provide correct signals regarding future outcomes. Ths means that economic data are not necessarily generated by a process. Constrasts denominated in money terms are a human in an entrepreneurial economy. It helps humans efficiently organize time-consuming production and exchange processes in a world of uncertainty.

Download or read book Handbook of Macroeconomics written by Michael Woodford and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 1999 with total page 822 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A Firm level Perspective on Micro and Macro level Uncertainty written by and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Uncertainty and Unemployment written by Sangyup Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-23 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.

Download or read book Uncertainty Financial Frictions and Nominal Rigidities A Quantitative Investigation written by Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-09-29 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Are uncertainty shocks a major source of business cycle fluctuations? This paper studies the effect of a mean preserving shock to the variance of aggregate total factor productivity (macro uncertainty) and to the dispersion of entrepreneurs' idiosyncratic productivity (micro uncertainty) in a financial accelerator DSGE model with sticky prices. It explores the different mechanisms through which uncertainty shocks are propagated and amplified. The time series properties of macro and micro uncertainty are estimated using U.S. aggregate and firm-level data, respectively. While surprise increases in micro uncertainty have a larger impact on output than macro uncertainty, these account for a small (non-trivial) share of output volatility.

Download or read book Uncertainty Financial Frictions and Nominal Rigidities A Quantitative Investigation written by Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-09-29 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Are uncertainty shocks a major source of business cycle fluctuations? This paper studies the effect of a mean preserving shock to the variance of aggregate total factor productivity (macro uncertainty) and to the dispersion of entrepreneurs' idiosyncratic productivity (micro uncertainty) in a financial accelerator DSGE model with sticky prices. It explores the different mechanisms through which uncertainty shocks are propagated and amplified. The time series properties of macro and micro uncertainty are estimated using U.S. aggregate and firm-level data, respectively. While surprise increases in micro uncertainty have a larger impact on output than macro uncertainty, these account for a small (non-trivial) share of output volatility.

Download or read book Evaluating the Measurement Uncertainty written by I Lira and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2002-04-09 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is now widely recognized that measurement data should be properly analyzed to include an assessment of their associated uncertainty. Since this parameter allows for a meaningful comparison of the measurement results and for an evaluation of their reliability, its expression is important not only in the specialized field of scientific metrology, but also in industry, trade, and commerce. General rules for evaluating and expressing the uncertainty are given in the internationally accepted ISO Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement, generally known as the GUM. Evaluating the Measurement Uncertainty details the theoretical framework on which the GUM is based and provides additional material on more advanced topics such as least-squares adjustment and Bayesian statistics. The book does not require previous knowledge other than elementary calculus and can be read as a complement to the GUM or as a stand-alone reference source. It stresses fundamental principles and illustrates their applications through numerous examples taken from many different fields of metrology. The book includes practical guidance as well as theoretical aspects, resulting in an invaluable resource for metrologists, engineers, physicists, and graduate students involved with measurements in academia and industry.

Download or read book Measuring Uncertainty within the Theory of Evidence written by Simona Salicone and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-04-23 with total page 327 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This monograph considers the evaluation and expression of measurement uncertainty within the mathematical framework of the Theory of Evidence. With a new perspective on the metrology science, the text paves the way for innovative applications in a wide range of areas. Building on Simona Salicone’s Measurement Uncertainty: An Approach via the Mathematical Theory of Evidence, the material covers further developments of the Random Fuzzy Variable (RFV) approach to uncertainty and provides a more robust mathematical and metrological background to the combination of measurement results that leads to a more effective RFV combination method. While the first part of the book introduces measurement uncertainty, the Theory of Evidence, and fuzzy sets, the following parts bring together these concepts and derive an effective methodology for the evaluation and expression of measurement uncertainty. A supplementary downloadable program allows the readers to interact with the proposed approach by generating and combining RFVs through custom measurement functions. With numerous examples of applications, this book provides a comprehensive treatment of the RFV approach to uncertainty that is suitable for any graduate student or researcher with interests in the measurement field.

Download or read book Uncertainty Heterogeneous Beliefs and Business Cycles written by Calvin Dun Jia and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides empirical evidence both at the aggregate and the micro level to demonstrate that the survey-based forecast dispersion series helps identify a different type of second moment shocks, which affect the distribution of firms' beliefs regardless of whether those beliefs are backed by economic fundamentals. Having jointly identified the “informational disagreement shocks” and the standard uncertainty shocks, innovations that enlarge the forecast dispersion lead to a persistent decline in aggregate investment, employment, and production followed by a slow recovery. Conversely, when the uncertainty is measured by the variability of future firm-specific productivity innovations, the classic “wait and see” effect of uncertainty kicks in such that a quick “rebound-overshoot” ensuing a short-run contraction. Firm-level evidence suggests that those more productive firms increase the investments given larger uncertainty, whereas the investments are cut when they hold more heterogeneous beliefs about future business well-beings. Thus, the heightened uncertainty promotes while rises in the belief heterogeneity hinders the capital reallocation among firms. The results hold with the endogeneity issue corrected with instruments constructed from the USPTO patent data. Identifying the informational second moment shocks implies that a slow recovery does not have to be a result of the combined adverse first moment and second moment shocks that shift the economic fundamentals.

Download or read book Macro Economic and Micro Economic Measurement to Consumer Behaviors written by Johnny Ch LOK and published by . This book was released on 2019-11-23 with total page 399 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Behavioral economy consumptiondesires measurement methodHow to apply behavioral economic theory to measure consumption level or consumption desire to the country? I shall assume that consumption is to be measured by private and public expenditures at constant prices at conventionally defined and all money prices are assumed constant. How to measure real consumption?In fact, consumer behavior has relationship to any country, itself economic growth or recesion in any economic and consumption environment . The purpose of income calculations in practiced affairs to give consumers an indication of the amount which they can consume. It would seem that we ought to define a man's income as the maximum value, which he can consume during a week, and still expect to be well at the end of week as he has at the beginning.An economy which uses money , but uses it is as a neutral link between transactions in real things and real assets and does not want of a better , a real exchange economy with an economy in which money plays a part of its own and affects motives and decisions and as , in short, one of the operative factors in the situation. So that the course of events can not be predicted either in the long period or in the short period, without knowledge of the behavior of money between the first state and last. It is a monetary economy means to influence any country itself consumer behavioral consumption desires change to more or less shopping times.Hence, money matters in both the long and short run. Money affects real decision making and employment and output outcomes to any countries. The economic system is moving through calendar time from an irrevocable past to an uncertain and statistically unpredictable future. Any country's past and present consumption market data do not necessary provide correct signals regarding future outcomes. Ths means that economic data are not necessarily generated by a process. Constrasts denominated in money terms are a human in an entrepreneurial economy. It helps humans efficiently organize time-consuming production and exchange processes in a world of uncertainty.

Download or read book Hardness Testing written by Konrad Herrmann and published by ASM International. This book was released on 2011 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Macro Economic and Mico Economic Measurement to Consumer Behavior written by Johnny Ch LOK and published by . This book was released on 2019-11-22 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Any country's past and present consumption market data do not necessary provide correct signals regarding future outcomes. Ths means that economic data are not necessarily generated by a process. Constrasts denominated in money terms are a human in an entrepreneurial economy. It helps humans efficiently organize time-consuming production and exchange processes in a world of uncertainty. In any money using entreprensurial economy, entrepreneurs' decisions regarding production and hiring depend on expectations of receiving contractual sales revenues ( cash inflows) in excess of the contractual money costs of production ( cash outflows). Since, the money wage contract is the most efficient oriented contracts, modern economies can be characterized as money-wage contract-based systems.Hence, money processes two essential elasticity that differentiate is from the products of industry. These describe why (a) money does not grow on trees ( money's elasticity of production is zero )and (b) why producible products are not good liquid stores of value ( the elasticity of substitution between liquid assets , such as money and producible products is zero).If money has these elasticity , then unemployment develops, that is to say, because people can not be employed, when the object of desire ( i.e. money, good useful product or good quality product , even shopping enjoyable feeling,) is something which can not produced and the demand of shopping desires are reduced to the country's people.

Download or read book Measuring Consumer Behavior in Hospitality for Enhanced Decision Making written by Ramos, Célia M.Q. and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2023-04-11 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To improve the hospitality and tourism services provided to customers, it is necessary for managers to acquire knowledge about their customers’ and prospects’ journeys in order to give back to customers in the form of new offerings such as adequate products, services, and user design experiences according to the characteristics of potential consumers. Only in this way will it be possible to innovate consumer experience in the hospitality sector. Measuring Consumer Behavior in Hospitality for Enhanced Decision Making studies online consumer behavior along with other complementary marketing, hospitality, and tourism disciplines, thus gaining a holistic view of the current consumption during the COVID-19 context, which led to structural changes during the digital customer journey touchpoints. Covering topics such as e-commerce websites, price-setting strategies, and intellectual capital, this premier reference source is ideal for entrepreneurs, executives, managers, business leaders, government officials, marketers, students and educators of higher education, librarians, researchers, and academicians.

Download or read book A General Theory of Entropy written by Kofi Kissi Dompere and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-08-02 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents an epistemic framework for dealing with information-knowledge and certainty-uncertainty problems within the space of quality-quantity dualities. It bridges between theoretical concepts of entropy and entropy measurements, proposing the concept and measurement of fuzzy-stochastic entropy that is applicable to all areas of knowing under human cognitive limitations over the epistemological space. The book builds on two previous monographs by the same author concerning theories of info-statics and info-dynamics, to deal with identification and transformation problems respectively. The theoretical framework is developed by using the toolboxes such as those of the principle of opposites, systems of actual-potential polarities and negative-positive dualities, under different cost-benefit time-structures. The category theory and the fuzzy paradigm of thought, under methodological constructionism-reductionism duality, are used in the fuzzy-stochastic and cost-benefit spaces to point to directions of global application in knowing, knowledge and decision-choice actions. Thus, the book is concerned with a general theory of entropy, showing how the fuzzy paradigm of thought is developed to deal with the problems of qualitative-quantitative uncertainties over the fuzzy-stochastic space, which will be applicable to conditions of soft-hard data, fact, evidence and knowledge over the spaces of problem-solution dualities, decision-choice actions in sciences, non-sciences, engineering and planning sciences to abstract acceptable information-knowledge elements.

Download or read book Expectations and Uncertainty in the Macroeconomy written by Carola Conces Binder and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 165 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of three chapters with a common theme of expectations and beliefs in the macroeconomy. The first chapter introduces a micro-level measure of consumer inflation uncertainty. Literature on cognition and communication documents that people use round numbers as a communicative tool to convey uncertainty. I construct an uncertainty measure that exploits consumers' tendency to round their inflation forecasts to multiples of five on the Michigan Survey of Consumers. I document cross-sectional and time series properties of the measure and provide support for its validity. Mean inflation uncertainty is countercyclical and positively correlated with inflation disagreement, inflation volatility, and the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. Inflation uncertainty varies more in the cross section than over time, so a major benefit of this new measure is its cross-sectional dimension which enables micro-level analysis of the relationship between uncertainty and consumption. More uncertain consumers are more reluctant to spend on durables, cars, and homes, and their spending attitudes are less sensitive to interest rates. The measure also has applications to inflation dynamics and monetary policy. For example, the expectations of more-certain consumers can be used to improve Phillips curve estimation. The second chapter focuses on central bank communication with households. Transparent communication with the general public is a stated goal of the Federal Reserve. While most research has focused on central bank communication with financial markets, this paper evaluates the effectiveness of Federal Reserve communication with the public at large. While professional forecasters are attentive to Federal Reserve communications regarding the price stability objective, including the announcement of a 2% inflation target, many households are not. Consumers' inflation expectations are weakly-anchored, especially among less-educated, low-income, and female consumers. Anchoring has not improved notably since the late 1990s. News and media data reveal that Federal Reserve communications are not widely propagated through traditional or new media channels to the public and that that consumers do not proactively seek information on monetary policy. Evidence collected from dozens of surveys from the 1950s to 2014 exposes a lack of public awareness of the Federal Reserve and its objectives and a decline in public opinion of central bankers. The third chapter studies expectations in an important episode of economic history. Competing interpretations of the Great Depression depend on the behavior of inflation expectations in the onset and recovery. A number of papers have examined whether the deflation of 1930-32 was anticipated and when positive inflationary expectations reappeared. I review and compare the various statistical, narrative, and market-based approaches that have been used to estimate inflation expectations in the Great Depression era and supplement these approaches with additional methods and narrative evidence. I introduce a new approach using Phillips curve estimation. Reconciling the disparate findings of the previous literature, I conclude that the deflation was mostly unanticipated until mid-1930 and that a regime change occurred at the start of Roosevelt's presidency, prior to monetary expansion.