Download or read book Measuring Interdiction Capabilities in the Presence of Anti access Strategies written by Paul K. Davis and published by RAND Corporation. This book was released on 2002 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses how U.S. capabilities for interdicting invading ground forces in the Persian Gulf can be adapted over time to maintain the ability to achieve an early halt or to counter maneuver forces in other plausible campaigns. The authors emphasize exploratory analysis under massive uncertainty about political and military developments and about the detailed circumstances of conflict. The book documents a specialized model used for mission system analysis, which helps identify critical enablers of early-halt capability: deployment; immediate command-control, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance; ability to employ interdiction forces quickly; and weapon effectiveness. The United States should expect threatened or actual use of mass-casualty weapons against its forces and regional allies and enemy attempts to act quickly and with short warning. On the other hand, the threat's size and quality may be less than usually assumed. On the military side, the book characterizes parametrically the conditions for a successful early halt, thereby identifying high-priority strategic hedges, capability developments, and potential adaptations. The book considers joint forces for interdiction and synergy with rapidly employable ground forces. On the political side, the book notes the premium on continued forward basing, aggressive use of ambiguous warning, and long-range bombers. Continued enforcement of red-line constructs could greatly improve the likelihood of decisive response to ambiguous warning. Countering anti-access strategies would be enhanced by negotiating use of more distant bases and logistic preparation. It will be increasingly unwise to assume use of forward bases, even if technical analysis suggests that the bases could operate under attacks with mass-casualty weapons.
Download or read book Measuring Interdiction Capabilities in the Presence of Anti Access Strategies Exploratory Analysis to Inform Adaptive Strategy for the Persian Gulf written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This monograph stems from a project on long-term force planning for the Persian Gulf. The project was commissioned by Lt General M. Esmond, who was then the Deputy Chief of Staff of the United States Air Force (USAF) for Air and Space Operations (AF/XO), and Lt General Charles Wald, commander of the 9th Air Force. The monograph presents analytical methods for capabilities-based planning of interdiction missions and models to implement the methods. It considers both the halt campaign and other counter-maneuver-force operations. Our purpose in this monograph is to help inform development of military strategies that are adaptive over time. U.S. operational capabilities for fighting a war today in the Persian Gulf region are adequate and well understood, but changes are on the horizon and uncertainties- such as anti-access strategies-loom. Planners are therefore interested in anticipating needed adaptations and in developing related hedge capabilities. No study is needed to Imow that bigger threats are more troublesome, that warning is important, that more stealth is desirable, or that advanced munitions are valuable. It is useful, however, to have quantitative methods for measuring the potential value of enhanced capabilities. Analysis can illuminate tradeoffs when it comes time to allocate resources and action priorities. The most valuable analysis sheds light on how flexible, adaptive, and robust a given capability would be across circum- stances and assumptions, and on how much of that capability would be enough. It follows that higher-level planning can benefit from exploratory analysis across the dimensions of un- certainty-so long as the analysis is fast, broad, flexible, and understandable. In what follows we develop a state-of-the-art model and methodology for such analysis. We also summarize insights from analysis to date.
Download or read book Anti Access Warfare written by Sam J Tangredi and published by Naval Institute Press. This book was released on 2013-10-15 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first book to examine the concept of anti-access and area denial warfare, providing a definitive introduction to both conceptual theories and historical examples of this strategy. Also referred to by the acronym "A2/AD," anti-access warfare has been identified in American strategic planning as the most likely strategy to be employed by the People's Republic of China or by the Islamic Republic of Iran in any future conflict with the United States. While previous studies of the subject have emphasized the effects on the joint force and, air forces in particular, this important new study advances the understanding of sea power by identifying the naval roots of the development of the anti-access concept. The study of anti-access or area denial strategies for use against American power projection capabilities has strong naval roots-which have been largely ignored by the most influential commentators. Sustained long-range power projection is both a unique strength of U.S. military forces and a requirement for an activist foreign policy and forward defense. In more recent years, the logic of the anti-access approach has been identified by the Department of Defense as a threat to this U.S. capability and the joint force. The conclusions in Anti-Access Warfare differ from most commentary on anti-access strategy. Rather than a technology-driven post-Cold War phenomenon, the anti-access approach has been a routine element of grand strategy used by strategically weaker powers to confront stronger powers throughout history. But they have been largely unsuccessful when confronting a stronger maritime power. Although high technology weapons capabilities enhance the threat, they also can be used to mitigate the threat. Rather than arguing against reliance on maritime forces-presumably because they are no longer survivable-the historical analysis argues that maritime capabilities are key in "breaking the great walls" of countries like Iran and China.
Download or read book Portfolio analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2008 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The research reported in this monograph is part of RAND's continuing work on practical theory and methods for capabilities-based planning in the Department of Defense (DoD) and other organizations. Its particular contribution is to describe and illustrate in some detail an analytic framework and methodology for defensewide capability-area reviews including DoD's experimental Concept Decision Reviews and related evaluations of alternatives (Krieg, 2007). The monograph also describes newly developed enabling tools -- one for generating and screening preliminary options and one for evaluating in a portfolio-analysis structure those options that pass screening. Variants of the methods can be applied for analysis across capability areas or for strategic-level defense planning, i.e., force planning to establish the overall mix and balance of capabilities. Finally, the monograph illustrates concepts with applications to the capability areas of Global Strike and Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD).
Download or read book Policy Analysis in National Security Affairs written by Richard L. Kugler and published by Government Printing Office. This book was released on 2006 with total page 664 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book addresses how to conduct policy analysis in the field of national security, including foreign policy and defense strategy. It is a philosophical and conceptual book for helphing people think deeply, clearly, and insightfully about complex policy issues. This books reflects the viewpoint that the best policies normally come from efforts to synthesize competing camps by drawing upon the best of each of them and by combining them to forge a sensible whole. While this book is written to be reader-friendly, it aspires to in-depth scholarship.
Download or read book Theory and Methods for Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2007 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report describes an approach to high-level decision support for a Joint Forces Air Component Commander in combat operations or a Chief of Staff in defense planning. Its central theme is the fundamental importance of dealing effectively with uncertainty, whether in effects-based operations, building the Air Force's Commander's Predictive Environment, or planning future forces with the methods of capabilities-based planning. Because many features of the future cannot be predicted with reasonable confidence, it is better to proceed with the expectation of surprise developments and to have skill in recognizing adaptations and making them than it is to treat uncertainty merely as an annoyance. This report sketches the framework of a high-level decision-support environment that is top-down, expresses concepts in simple and intuitive language, deals explicitly with risk and uncertainty, and provides the capability for decisionmakers to readily discover and question the bases for key assumptions and assessments. It can accommodate both "rational-analytic" and "naturalistic" decisionmakers, allowing them to produce strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust (FAR). Two explicit methods and their related tools are described. The first involves portfolio-style thinking and analysis, a good mechanism for balancing risks and other considerations in choosing a course of action. The second is a novel modification of foresight exercises that addresses the need to include humans effectively in dealing with uncertainty. A more extensive discussion of available methods and enabling technologies is also presented, along with some recommendations about investment priorities.
Download or read book Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2007 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report extends research on using scenarios for strategic planning, with experiments in what can be called massive scenario generation (MSG), a computationally intensive technique that seeks to combine virtues of human- and model-based exploration of "the possibility space." The authors measure particular approaches to MSG against four metrics: not needing a good initial model; the dimensionality of the possibility space considered; the degree of exploration of that space; and the quality of resulting knowledge. The authors then describe two MSG experiments for contrasting cases, one that began with a reasonable but untested analytical model, and one that began without an analytical model, but with a thoughtful list of the conditions that might characterize and distinguish among circumstances in the situation considered, a list derived from a combination of single-analyst thinking and group brainstorming. The authors experimented with a variety of methods and tools for interpreting and making sense of the "data" arising from MSG, using ordinary linear sensitivity analysis, a generalization using analyst-inspired aggregation fragments, some advanced filtering methods drawing on data-mining and machine-learning methods, and motivated metamodeling. On the basis of this preliminary work, we conclude that MSG has the potential to expand the scope of what are recognized as possible developments, provide an understanding of how those developments might come about, and help identify aspects of the world that should be studied more carefully, tested, or monitored. It should assist planners by enriching their mental library of the patterns used to guide reasoning and action at the time of crisis or decision and should help them identify anomalous situations requiring unusual actions. Finally, it should identify crucial issues worthy of testing or experimentation in games or other venues and, in some cases, suggest better ways to design mission rehearsals. If MSG can be built into training, education, research, and socialization exercises, it should leave participants with a wider and better sense of the possible, while developing skill at problem-solving in situations other than those of the "best estimate." Much development is needed, but prospects are encouraging.
Download or read book Analysis Analysis Practices and Implications for Modeling and Simulation written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2007 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An examination of analysis and analysis practices for defense planning, the paper1s purpose is to delineate priorities for the way ahead, i.e., for investments and other actions to ensure that future models and simulations will serve the needs of decisionmakers. The analysis in question is accomplished for Quadrennial Reviews and for continuing work on capability assessments, requirements analysis, and program analysis.
Download or read book Transforming America s Military written by and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on with total page 412 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Impact of Missile Threats on the Reliability of U S Overseas Bases A Framework for Analysis written by and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book New Challenges New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking written by Stuart E. Johnson and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2003 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold WarÑand then the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001Ñtransformed the task of American foreign and defense policymaking. This book outlines the dimensions of that transformation and sketches new tools for dealing with the policy challengesÑfrom modeling and gaming, to planning based on capabilities rather than threats, to personnel planning and making use of "best practices" from the private sector.
Download or read book The George W Bush Defense Program written by Stephen J. Cimbala and published by Potomac Books, Inc.. This book was released on 2010 with total page 462 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The events of 9/11 and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan make an obvious case for expert study of the George W. Bush defense program. During the Bush administration, the rise and fall of governments, the fates of peoples, and the very definitions of "war" and "victory" were up for discussion. The United States, with its unprecedented global military power at the dawn of the twenty-first century, created new opportunities for using foreign policy and military strategy on behalf of national and allied interests. But this power was limited, and its use against unconventional or otherwise unorthodox enemies required careful calibration of its various instruments. In this insightful series of essays edited by Stephen Cimbala, eleven academic experts prominent in the defense and security think-tank communities assess Bush's defense program. Many also have past or current experience in the U.S. government or the American armed forces. They examine Bush's defense policy and strategy across several critical issues, including Iraq, Afghanistan, terrorism, nuclear arms control, and foreign military sales. In addition, special chapters are devoted to the leadership style of former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld, to the idea of "victory" as it might apply to Bush's defense decisions, and to the best exit strategy from Iraq for the United States. The lessons learned from the successes and failures in Bush's defense policy, clearly presented in The George W. Bush Defense Program, can also be applied to the appraisal of all presidents.
Download or read book Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision support Systems written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2005 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A selective review of modern decision science and implications for decision-support systems. The study suggests ways to synthesize lessons from research on heuristics and biases with those from "naturalistic research." It also discusses modern tools, such as increasingly realistic simulations, multiresolution modeling, and exploratory analysis, which can assist decisionmakers in choosing strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust.
Download or read book Saudi Arabia in the Balance written by Paul Aarts and published by NYU Press. This book was released on 2007-09 with total page 479 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Saudi Arabia in the Balance brings together today’s leading scholars in the field to investigate the domestic, regional, and international affairs of a Kingdom whose policies have so far eluded the outside world. With the passing of King Fahd and the installation of King Abdullah, a contemporary understanding of Saudi Arabia is essential as the Kingdom enters a new era of leadership and particularly when many Saudis themselves are increasingly debating, and actively shaping, the future direction of domestic and foreign affairs. Each of the essays, framed in the aftermath of 9/11 and the 2003 invasion of Iraq, offers a systematic perspective into the country’s political and economic realities as well as the tension between its regional and global roles. Important topics covered include U.S. and Saudi relations; Saudi oil policy; the Islamist threat to the monarchy regime; educational opportunities; the domestic rise of liberal opposition; economic reform; the role of the royal family; and the country's foreign relations in a changing international world. Contributors: Paul Aarts, Madawi Al-Rasheed, Rachel Bronson, Iris Glosemeyer, Steffen Hertog, Yossi Kostiner, Stéphane Lacroix, Giacomo Luciani, Monica Malik, Roel Meijer, Tim Niblock, Gerd Nonneman, Michaela Prokop, Abdulaziz Sager, Guido Steinberg
Download or read book Finding Candidate Options for Investment written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2008 with total page 87 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report describes a methodology and prototype tool, the Building Blocks to Composite Options Tool (BCOT), for identifying good candidate options to use in investment analysis.
Download or read book What Role Can Land Based Multi Domain Anti Access Area Denial Forces Play in Deterring Or Defeating Aggression written by Timothy M. Bonds and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report examines the role that land-based, multi-domain anti-access/area denial forces can play in helping the U.S. and its allies and partners deter or defeat aggression in the western Pacific, European littoral areas, and the Persian Gulf.
Download or read book Portfolio Analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2008-02-19 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An analytical framework and methodology for capability-area reviews is described, along with new tools to support capabilities analysis and strategic-level defense planning in the Defense Department and the Services. BCOT generates and screens preliminary options, and the Portfolio-Analysis Tool (PAT) is used to evaluate options that pass screening. The concepts are illustrated with applications to Global Strike and Ballistic Missile Defense. Recommendations are made for further defense-planning research.
