Download or read book Measuring Inflation Expectations Using Phillips Curve Models written by Adriana Cornea-Madeira and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This case study is based on original research conducted by us on the estimation of the Phillips curve (which establishes a relation between inflation and the level of aggregate economic activity) with UK data. This case study will address the following methodological/practical challenges: (1) choice of driving variable in estimation of Phillips curve models and in obtaining measures of fundamental inflation; (2) finding instruments to deal with endogeneity bias in estimation of Phillips curve models; (3) comparing models using selection techniques that balance goodness of fit with simplicity; and (4) assessment of inflation forecast accuracy. Lessons (1)-(4) are applicable to anyone doing empirical research on inflation dynamics. Lessons (1)-(4) are also all applicable to those studying monetary policy, fiscal policy, and business cycles. Lesson (2) is also applicable to the study of most economic relationships, while lessons (3) and (4) are also applicable to the study of time series in general.

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Download or read book A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short Term Unemployment written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-25 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve’s target, and that labor-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including the failure of high total unemployment since 2008 to reduce inflation greatly. The fit of our equation is especially good when we measure core inflation with the Cleveland Fed’s series on weighted median inflation. We also propose a more general Phillips curve in which core inflation depends on short-term unemployment and on expected inflation as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters. This specification fits U.S. inflation since 1985, including both the anchored-expectations period of the 2000s and the preceding period when expectations were determined by past levels of inflation.

Download or read book Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve Some Evidence for Canada the United Kingdom and the United States written by Mr.Douglas Laxton and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-10-01 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Previous tests for convexity in the Phillips curve have been biased because researchers have employed filtering techniques for the NAIRU that have been fundamentally inconsistent with the existence of convexity. This paper places linear and nonlinear models of the Phillips curve on an equal statistical footing by estimating model-consistent measures of the NAIRU. After imposing plausible restrictions on the variability in the NAIRU we find that the nonlinear model fits the data best. The implications for the macroeconomic policy debate is that policymakers that are unsuccessful in stabilizing the business cycle will induce a higher natural rate of unemployment.

Download or read book Inflation Expectations in Phillips Curve Models for the Euro Area written by Dmitry Kulikov and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Phillips Curves Phillips Lines and the Unemplyment Costs of Overheating written by Mr.Peter B. Clark and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-02-01 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most empirical work on the U.S. Phillips curve has had a strong tendency to impose global linearity on the data. The basic objective of this paper is to reconsider the issue of nonlinearity and to underscore its importance for policymaking. After briefly reviewing the history of the Phillips curve and the basis for convexity, we derive it explicitly using standard models of wage and price determination. We provide some empirical estimates of Phillips curves and Phillips lines for the United States and use some illustrative simulations to contrast the policy implications of the two models.

Download or read book Inflation and the Phillips curve written by Thomas Vogt and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2008-06-09 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2007 in the subject Economics - Economic Cycle and Growth, grade: 1,0, University of applied sciences Frankfurt a. M., course: Inflation and the Phillips Curve, language: English, abstract: In this paper the author will discuss the relation of inflation and the Phillips curve. First, the concept and the different forms of inflation and their economical reasons will be explained. Afterwards the three prevalent models of the Phillips curve in literature are introduced and explained. The author will look into the theory of the NRU and NAIRU and how they relate to the concept of the Phillips curve. In the last part of the paper, the applicability and validity of the Phillips curve for Germany is investigated more closely and the characteristics of the Phillips curve for Germany will be described. The Phillips curve originates of an empirical study of Arthur W. Phillips in 1958. There he describes the existence of a negative relationship between the rate of unemployment and the nominal wage growth in the UK between the years 1861-1957. The curve shows, that the higher the rate of unemployment, the lower the rate of wage inflation. His work represented a milestone in the development of macroeconomics. Especially in the sixties and seventies, politicians in the USA and Europe thought they can interpret the relation of inflation and unemployment as a menu card of fiscal and monetary policy. A well-known quote by Helmut Schmidt, former chancellor of Germany in the 1970s, supports this thinking, when he said that an inflation rate of five percent is better than a five percent rate of unemployment. In the following years, a lot of different economist (Keynes, Samuelson, Friedman, Phelps, Lipsey et al.) modified the original curve and supported it with their customized theories. In this paper the author will discuss the relation of inflation and the Phillips curve. First, the concept and the different forms of inflation and their economical reasons will be explained. Afterwards the three prevalent models of the Phillips curve in literature are introduced and explained. The author will look into the theory of the NRU and NAIRU and how they relate to the concept of the Phillips curve. In the last part of the paper, the applicability and validity of the Phillips curve for Germany is investigated more closely and the characteristics of the Phillips curve for Germany will be described.

Download or read book Inflation Expectations Uncertainty the Phillips Curve and Monetary Policy written by Michael T. Kiley and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Inflation in the United Kingdom written by Michael Parkin and published by Manchester University Press. This book was released on 1978 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monograph investigating inflation in the UK from 1945 to 1976 - surveys empirical studies on consumer price and wage determination, focuses on relations between inflation and unemployment (Phillips curve) and the effects of incomes policies, and discusses the measurement and use of mathematical models for price and cost expectations both of consumers and producers. Bibliography pp. 166 to 177, graphs and statistical tables.

Download or read book Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations written by Athanasios Orphanides and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What monetary policy framework, if adopted by the Federal Reserve, would have avoided the Great Inflation of the 1960s and 1970s? The authors use counterfactual simulations of an estimated model of the U.S. economy to evaluate alternative monetary policy strategies. The authors document that policymakers at the time both had an overly optimistic view of the natural rate of unemployment and put a high priority on achieving full employment. They show that in the presence of realistic informational imperfections and with an emphasis on stabilizing economic activity, an optimal control approach would have failed to keep inflation expectations well anchored, resulting in highly volatile inflation during the 1970s. Charts and tables.

Download or read book A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short Term Unemployment written by Laurence Ball and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve's target, and that labor-market slack is captured by the level of short-term unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including the failure of high total unemployment since 2008 to reduce inflation greatly. The fit of our equation is especially good when we measure core inflation with the Cleveland Fed's series on weighted median inflation. We also propose a more general Phillips curve in which core inflation depends on short-term unemployment and on expected inflation as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters. This specification fits U.S. inflation since 1985, including both the anchored-expectations period of the 2000s and the preceding period when expectations were determined by past levels of inflation.

Download or read book The Role of Expectations in Euro Area Inflation Dynamics written by Maritta Paloviita and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tiivistelmä.

Download or read book Estimating Unobservable Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve written by and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Shocks to Inflation Expectations written by Mr. Philip Barrett and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-04-29 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The consensus among central bankers is that higher inflation expectations can drive up inflation today, requiring tighter policy. We assess this by devising a novel method for identifying shocks to inflation expectations, estimating a semi-structural VAR where an expectation shock is identified as that which causes measured expectations to diverge from rationality. Using data for the United States, we find that a positive inflation expectations shock is deflationary and contractionary: inflation, output, and interest rates all fall. These results are inconsistent with the standard New Keynesian model, which predicts inflation and interest rate hikes. We discuss possible resolutions to this new puzzle.

Download or read book Inflation Expectations the Phillips Curve and the Role of Monetary Policy in a Simple Macroeconomic Model written by James Pemberton and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Inflation Unemployment and Money written by Bruno Jossa and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 1998 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This comprehensive book presents an original reconstruction of the different interpretations of the Phillips curve. The authors demonstrate through an in-depth analysis how it is possible to find non-neoclassical foundations in the trade-off between inflation and unemployment. The debate is presented from a historical perspective which charts the evolution of the Phillips curve from a non-neoclassical perspective, taking account of post Keynesian literature. In the first part of the book the authors focus on the origins of the Phillips curve and they critically analyse Richard Lipsey's interpretation and approach to the Phillips curve. They then explore the neoclassical and monetarist interpretation, paying special attention to the evolution of monetarism and the Keynesian critique of this approach. The Kaleckian, Keynesian and Marxist interpretations of the Phillips trade-off are then presented. Here the authors show how the relationship between inflation, unemployment and money described in these approaches accurately reflects the fundamental features of today's capitalist economies. In the final section a new Phillips curve is constructed, taking into account the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment and the hysteresis of it. Inflation, Unemployment and Money will be of interest to macroeconomists, post Keynesians and monetary and financial economists.

Download or read book Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy written by Jeff Fuhrer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2009-09-11 with total page 517 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Current perspectives on the Phillips curve, a core macroeconomic concept that treats the relationship between inflation and unemployment. In 1958, economist A. W. Phillips published an article describing what he observed to be the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment; subsequently, the “Phillips curve” became a central concept in macroeconomic analysis and policymaking. But today's Phillips curve is not the same as the original one from fifty years ago; the economy, our understanding of price setting behavior, the determinants of inflation, and the role of monetary policy have evolved significantly since then. In this book, some of the top economists working today reexamine the theoretical and empirical validity of the Phillips curve in its more recent specifications. The contributors consider such questions as what economists have learned about price and wage setting and inflation expectations that would improve the way we use and formulate the Phillips curve, what the Phillips curve approach can teach us about inflation dynamics, and how these lessons can be applied to improving the conduct of monetary policy. Contributors Lawrence Ball, Ben Bernanke, Oliver Blanchard, V. V. Chari, William T. Dickens, Stanley Fischer, Jeff Fuhrer, Jordi Gali, Michael T. Kiley, Robert G. King, Donald L. Kohn, Yolanda K. Kodrzycki, Jane Sneddon Little, Bartisz Mackowiak, N. Gregory Mankiw, Virgiliu Midrigan, Giovanni P. Olivei, Athanasios Orphanides, Adrian R. Pagan, Christopher A. Pissarides, Lucrezia Reichlin, Paul A. Samuelson, Christopher A. Sims, Frank R. Smets, Robert M. Solow, Jürgen Stark, James H. Stock, Lars E. O. Svensson, John B. Taylor, Mark W. Watson