Download or read book Measuring Cross sectional Variation in Expected Returns written by Douglas Jean Laporte and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I develop and test a new machine learning method for estimating cross-sectional firm-level expected returns. My approach adapts the loss function of a random forest algorithm to minimize the variance of measurement errors instead of trading off bias and variance. Out-of-sample tests show this approach yields reliably higher cross-sectional accuracy relative to: (a) commonly used implied cost of capital estimates, (b) factor-based estimates, and (c) estimates based on other state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms. In more detailed analyses, I find that while a small number of firm characteristics explain most of the returns predictability, the relative importance of these characteristics vary by holding horizon. Further, cross-sectional differences in expected returns exhibit limited persistence beyond two years. I also use this new approach to revisit the reported association between earnings smoothness and expected returns. Contrary to prior studies, I show that firms whose earnings are smoother relative to their cash flows earn higher (not lower) expected returns, despite being safer on many dimensions.
Download or read book Cross sectional Variation of Measurement Error and Predictability of Earnings and Stock Returns written by Jung Hoon Kim and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In capital markets research, market expectation of future earnings plays a vital role. However, almost all proxies inevitably measure the market expectation of future earnings with error, which results in unsatisfactory empirical outcomes in prior research (e.g., small empirical values of earnings response coefficient and poor quality estimates of expected rates of return). Using analysts' consensus forecasts, this study investigates how noisy measurement of the market expectation of future earnings affects the predictability of future earnings and stock returns. Based on the errors-in-variables approach, this study first provides a framework to capture cross-sectional variation of the measurement error in analysts' consensus forecasts. With this framework in place, this study documents that analysts' consensus forecasts with more measurement error have less ability to predict future earnings and stock returns, and that incorporating information about cross-sectional variation of the measurement error can improve the predictability of future earnings and stock returns. These findings will be useful to accounting research that relies on the market expectation of future earnings and to practitioners seeking to forecast profitability and stock returns.
Download or read book Using the DCF Approach to Analyze Cross sectional Variation in Expected Returns written by Bradford Cornell and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Consumption Liquidity and the Cross sectional Variation of Expected Returns written by Elena Márquez de la Cruz and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Portfolio Construction Measurement and Efficiency written by John B. Guerard, Jr. and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-09-23 with total page 480 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume, inspired by and dedicated to the work of pioneering investment analyst, Jack Treynor, addresses the issues of portfolio risk and return and how investment portfolios are measured. In a career spanning over fifty years, the primary questions addressed by Jack Treynor were: Is there an observable risk-return trade-off? How can stock selection models be integrated with risk models to enhance client returns? Do managed portfolios earn positive, and statistically significant, excess returns and can mutual fund managers time the market? Since the publication of a pair of seminal Harvard Business Review articles in the mid-1960’s, Jack Treynor has developed thinking that has greatly influenced security selection, portfolio construction and measurement, and market efficiency. Key publications addressed such topics as the Capital Asset Pricing Model and stock selection modeling and integration with risk models. Treynor also served as editor of the Financial Analysts Journal, through which he wrote many columns across a wide spectrum of topics. This volume showcases original essays by leading researchers and practitioners exploring the topics that have interested Treynor while applying the most current methodologies. Such topics include the origins of portfolio theory, market timing, and portfolio construction in equity markets. The result not only reinforces Treynor’s lasting contributions to the field but suggests new areas for research and analysis.
Download or read book Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns written by Matthew I. Spiegel and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The roles played by idiosyncratic risk and liquidity in determining stock returns have recently received a great deal of attention. However, recent empirical tests have not examined the interaction between these two factors. As others have shown (and this paper confirms) stocks idiosyncratic risk and liquidity are negatively correlated. To what extent then is each variable responsible for the observed cross sectional patterns in stock returns? Overall, using monthly data, the paper finds that stock returns are increasing with the level of idiosyncratic risk and decreasing in a stock's liquidity. However, while both liquidity and idiosyncratic risk play a role in determining returns, the impact of idiosyncratic risk is much stronger and often eliminates liquidity's explanatory power. The point estimates indicate that a one standard deviation change in idiosyncratic risk has between 2.5 and 8 times the impact of a corresponding change in liquidity on cross sectional expected returns.
Download or read book Habit Persistence written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Turan G. Bali and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-02-26 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Bali, Engle, and Murray have produced a highly accessible introduction to the techniques and evidence of modern empirical asset pricing. This book should be read and absorbed by every serious student of the field, academic and professional.” Eugene Fama, Robert R. McCormick Distinguished Service Professor of Finance, University of Chicago and 2013 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences “The empirical analysis of the cross-section of stock returns is a monumental achievement of half a century of finance research. Both the established facts and the methods used to discover them have subtle complexities that can mislead casual observers and novice researchers. Bali, Engle, and Murray’s clear and careful guide to these issues provides a firm foundation for future discoveries.” John Campbell, Morton L. and Carole S. Olshan Professor of Economics, Harvard University “Bali, Engle, and Murray provide clear and accessible descriptions of many of the most important empirical techniques and results in asset pricing.” Kenneth R. French, Roth Family Distinguished Professor of Finance, Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College “This exciting new book presents a thorough review of what we know about the cross-section of stock returns. Given its comprehensive nature, systematic approach, and easy-to-understand language, the book is a valuable resource for any introductory PhD class in empirical asset pricing.” Lubos Pastor, Charles P. McQuaid Professor of Finance, University of Chicago Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is a comprehensive overview of the most important findings of empirical asset pricing research. The book begins with thorough expositions of the most prevalent econometric techniques with in-depth discussions of the implementation and interpretation of results illustrated through detailed examples. The second half of the book applies these techniques to demonstrate the most salient patterns observed in stock returns. The phenomena documented form the basis for a range of investment strategies as well as the foundations of contemporary empirical asset pricing research. Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns also includes: Discussions on the driving forces behind the patterns observed in the stock market An extensive set of results that serve as a reference for practitioners and academics alike Numerous references to both contemporary and foundational research articles Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is an ideal textbook for graduate-level courses in asset pricing and portfolio management. The book is also an indispensable reference for researchers and practitioners in finance and economics. Turan G. Bali, PhD, is the Robert Parker Chair Professor of Finance in the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University. The recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize, he is the coauthor of Mathematical Methods for Finance: Tools for Asset and Risk Management, also published by Wiley. Robert F. Engle, PhD, is the Michael Armellino Professor of Finance in the Stern School of Business at New York University. He is the 2003 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences, Director of the New York University Stern Volatility Institute, and co-founding President of the Society for Financial Econometrics. Scott Murray, PhD, is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Finance in the J. Mack Robinson College of Business at Georgia State University. He is the recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize.
Download or read book Quantitative Investing for the Global Markets written by Peter Carman and published by Routledge. This book was released on 1997 with total page 386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First Published in 1997. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.
Download or read book Handbook of the Economics of Finance SET Volumes 2A 2B written by George M. Constantinides and published by Newnes. This book was released on 2013-01-21 with total page 1732 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This two-volume set of 23 articles authoritatively describes recent scholarship in corporate finance and asset pricing. Volume 1 concentrates on corporate finance, encompassing topics such as financial innovation and securitization, dynamic security design, and family firms. Volume 2 focuses on asset pricing with articles on market liquidity, credit derivatives, and asset pricing theory, among others. Both volumes present scholarship about the 2008 financial crisis in contexts that highlight both continuity and divergence in research. For those who seek insightful perspectives and important details, they demonstrate how corporate finance studies have interpreted recent events and incorporated their lessons. Covers core and newly-developing fields Explains how the 2008 financial crises affected theoretical and empirical research Exposes readers to a wide range of subjects described and analyzed by the best scholars
Download or read book Risk Management written by Walter V. "Bud" Haslett, Jr. and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-10-05 with total page 790 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Key readings in risk management from CFA Institute, the preeminent organization representing financial analysts Risk management may have been the single most important topic in finance over the past two decades. To appreciate its complexity, one must understand the art as well as the science behind it. Risk Management: Foundations for a Changing Financial World provides investment professionals with a solid framework for understanding the theory, philosophy, and development of the practice of risk management by Outlining the evolution of risk management and how the discipline has adapted to address the future of managing risk Covering the full range of risk management issues, including firm, portfolio, and credit risk management Examining the various aspects of measuring risk and the practical aspects of managing risk Including key writings from leading risk management practitioners and academics, such as Andrew Lo, Robert Merton, John Bogle, and Richard Bookstaber For financial analysts, money managers, and others in the finance industry, this book offers an in-depth understanding of the critical topics and issues in risk management that are most important to today’s investment professionals.
Download or read book What Explains the Variance of Prices and Returns Time series Vs Cross section written by Denis Biangolino Chaves and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the relative importance of discount rates and cash flows with a focus on the differences between time-series and cross-sectional variance tests. I show that the following holds for the market, different types of portfolios, and individual stocks: (a) changes in expected returns drive the majority of the time-series volatility in price ratios and unexpected returns, and (b) differences in expected cash flows generate most of the cross-sectional variance in valuations and unexpected returns. Contrary to previous results in the literature, I conclude that individual stocks or portfolios look similar to the market. These findings are robust to short- and long-run regressions and hold when using dividends or (clean surplus accounting) earnings as cash flows. Finally, I present a simple present-value model with latent expected returns and dividend growth rates that explains most of these results.
Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Wayne Ferson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-03-12 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.
Download or read book Volume Based Portfolio Strategies written by Alexander Brändle and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-06-28 with total page 345 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Alexander Brändle investigates the relationship between different measures of trading volume and returns in the Swiss stock market. He discovers that stocks with unusual trading volume in a given month experience systematically higher subsequent returns.
Download or read book The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics written by Matthew R. Lyle and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide a tractable model of firm-level expected holding period returns using two firm fundamentals--book-to-market ratio and ROE--and study the cross-sectional properties of the model-implied expected returns. We find that: 1) firm level expected returns and expected profitability are time-varying, but highly persistent; 2) forecasts of holding period returns strongly predict the cross section of future returns up to three years ahead. We document a highly significant predictive pooled regression slope for future quarterly returns of 0.86, whereas the popular factor-based expected return models have either an insignificant or a significantly negative association with future returns. In supplemental analyses, we show that these forecasts are also informative of the time-series variation in aggregate conditions: 1) for a representative firm, the slope of the conditional expected return curve is more positive in good times, when expected short-run returns are relatively low; 2) the model-implied forecaster of aggregate returns exhibits modest predictive ability. Collectively, we provide a simple, theoretically-motivated, and practically useful approach to estimating multi-period ahead expected returns.
Download or read book Essays on Temporal and Cross sectional Variation in the Expected Return of Risky Securities and Tests of Portfolio Efficiency written by Mark Britten-Jones and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Analysis and Use of Financial Statements written by Gerald I. White and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2002-12-30 with total page 786 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Accounting Standards (US and International) have been updated to reflect the latest pronouncements. * An increased international focus with more coverage of IASC and non-US GAAPs and more non-US examples.
