Download or read book Matrix State Particle Filter for Wishart Stochastic Volatility Processes written by Roberto Casarin and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work deals with multivariate stochastic volatility models, which account for a time-varying variance-covariance structure of the observable variables. We focus on a special class of models recently proposed in the literature and assume that the covariance matrix is a latent variable which follows an autoregressive Wishart process. We review two alternative stochastic representations of the Wishart process and propose Markov-Switching Wishart processes to capture different regimes in the volatility level. We apply a full Bayesian inference approach, which relies upon Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) for matrix-valued distributions and allows us to sequentially estimate both the parameters and the latent variables.
Download or read book Particle Filters for Random Set Models written by Branko Ristic and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-15 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses state estimation of stochastic dynamic systems from noisy measurements, specifically sequential Bayesian estimation and nonlinear or stochastic filtering. The class of solutions presented in this book is based on the Monte Carlo statistical method. Although the resulting algorithms, known as particle filters, have been around for more than a decade, the recent theoretical developments of sequential Bayesian estimation in the framework of random set theory have provided new opportunities which are not widely known and are covered in this book. This book is ideal for graduate students, researchers, scientists and engineers interested in Bayesian estimation.
Download or read book Particle Filters for Markov Switching Stochastic Volatility Models written by Yun Bao and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes an auxiliary particle filter algorithm for inference in regime switching stochastic volatility models in which the regime state is governed by a first-order Markov chain. We proposes an ongoing updated Dirichlet distribution to estimate the transition probabilities of the Markov chain in the auxiliary particle filter. A simulation-based algorithm is presented for the method which demonstrated that we are able to estimate a class of models in which the probability that the system state transits from one regime to a different regime is relatively high. The methodology is implemented to analyze a real time series: the foreign exchange rate of Australian dollars vs South Korean won.
Download or read book Sequential Gibbs Particle Filter Algorithm with an Application to Stochastic Volatility and Jumps Estimation written by Jiri Witzany and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of this paper is to propose and test a novel PF method called Sequential Gibbs Particle Filter allowing to estimate complex latent state variable models with unknown parameters. The framework is applied to a stochastic volatility model with independent jumps in returns and volatility. The implementation is based on a novel design of adapted proposal densities making convergence of the model relatively efficient as verified on a testing dataset. The empirical study applies the algorithm to estimate stochastic volatility with jumps in returns and volatility model based on the Prague stock exchange returns. The results indicate surprisingly weak jump in returns components and a relatively strong jump in volatility components with jumps in volatility appearing at the beginning of crisis periods.
Download or read book Topics in Nonparametric Statistics written by Michael G. Akritas and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-12-02 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume is composed of peer-reviewed papers that have developed from the First Conference of the International Society for Non Parametric Statistics (ISNPS). This inaugural conference took place in Chalkidiki, Greece, June 15-19, 2012. It was organized with the co-sponsorship of the IMS, the ISI and other organizations. M.G. Akritas, S.N. Lahiri and D.N. Politis are the first executive committee members of ISNPS and the editors of this volume. ISNPS has a distinguished Advisory Committee that includes Professors R.Beran, P.Bickel, R. Carroll, D. Cook, P. Hall, R. Johnson, B. Lindsay, E. Parzen, P. Robinson, M. Rosenblatt, G. Roussas, T. SubbaRao and G. Wahba. The Charting Committee of ISNPS consists of more than 50 prominent researchers from all over the world. The chapters in this volume bring forth recent advances and trends in several areas of nonparametric statistics. In this way, the volume facilitates the exchange of research ideas, promotes collaboration among researchers from all over the world and contributes to the further development of the field. The conference program included over 250 talks, including special invited talks, plenary talks and contributed talks on all areas of nonparametric statistics. Out of these talks, some of the most pertinent ones have been refereed and developed into chapters that share both research and developments in the field.
Download or read book Beyond the Kalman Filter Particle Filters for Tracking Applications written by Branko Ristic and published by Artech House. This book was released on 2003-12-01 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For most tracking applications the Kalman filter is reliable and efficient, but it is limited to a relatively restricted class of linear Gaussian problems. To solve problems beyond this restricted class, particle filters are proving to be dependable methods for stochastic dynamic estimation. Packed with 867 equations, this cutting-edge book introduces the latest advances in particle filter theory, discusses their relevance to defense surveillance systems, and examines defense-related applications of particle filters to nonlinear and non-Gaussian problems. With this hands-on guide, you can develop more accurate and reliable nonlinear filter designs and more precisely predict the performance of these designs. You can also apply particle filters to tracking a ballistic object, detection and tracking of stealthy targets, tracking through the blind Doppler zone, bi-static radar tracking, passive ranging (bearings-only tracking) of maneuvering targets, range-only tracking, terrain-aided tracking of ground vehicles, and group and extended object tracking.
Download or read book Filtering None Linear State Space Models Methods and Economic Applications written by Kai Ming Lee and published by Rozenberg Publishers. This book was released on 2010 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics written by Robert A. Meyers and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-11-03 with total page 919 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finance, Econometrics and System Dynamics presents an overview of the concepts and tools for analyzing complex systems in a wide range of fields. The text integrates complexity with deterministic equations and concepts from real world examples, and appeals to a broad audience.
Download or read book Tracking with Particle Filter for High dimensional Observation and State Spaces written by Séverine Dubuisson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-01-05 with total page 223 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title concerns the use of a particle filter framework to track objects defined in high-dimensional state-spaces using high-dimensional observation spaces. Current tracking applications require us to consider complex models for objects (articulated objects, multiple objects, multiple fragments, etc.) as well as multiple kinds of information (multiple cameras, multiple modalities, etc.). This book presents some recent research that considers the main bottleneck of particle filtering frameworks (high dimensional state spaces) for tracking in such difficult conditions.
Download or read book Filtering for Stochastic Processes with Applications to Guidance written by Richard S. Bucy and published by Wiley-Interscience. This book was released on 1968 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A detailed and complete treatment of the Kalman-Bucy filter, as well as the non-linear filter, is given. Applications of the theory of filtering are presented in the areas of aerospace guidance and navigation. (Author).
Download or read book Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics written by Gary Koop and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2010 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics provides a survey of the Bayesian methods used in modern empirical macroeconomics. These models have been developed to address the fact that most questions of interest to empirical macroeconomists involve several variables and must be addressed using multivariate time series methods. Many different multivariate time series models have been used in macroeconomics, but Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models have been among the most popular. Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics reviews and extends the Bayesian literature on VARs, TVP-VARs and TVP-FAVARs with a focus on the practitioner. The authors go beyond simply defining each model, but specify how to use them in practice, discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each and offer tips on when and why each model can be used.
Download or read book Particle Filtering and Parameter Learning written by Michael S. Johannes and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we provide an exact particle filtering and parameter learning algorithm. Our approach exactly samples from a particle approximation to the joint posterior distribution of both parameters and latent states, thus avoiding the use of and the degeneracies inherent to sequential importance sampling. Exact particle filtering algorithms for pure state filtering are also provided. We illustrate the efficiency of our approach by sequentially learning parameters and filtering states in two models. First, we analyze a robust linear state space model with t-distributed errors in both the observation and state equation. Second, we analyze a log-stochastic volatility model. Using both simulated and actual stock index return data, we find that algorithm efficiently learns all of the parameters and states in both models.
Download or read book Dynamic Linear Models with R written by Giovanni Petris and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-06-12 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: State space models have gained tremendous popularity in recent years in as disparate fields as engineering, economics, genetics and ecology. After a detailed introduction to general state space models, this book focuses on dynamic linear models, emphasizing their Bayesian analysis. Whenever possible it is shown how to compute estimates and forecasts in closed form; for more complex models, simulation techniques are used. A final chapter covers modern sequential Monte Carlo algorithms. The book illustrates all the fundamental steps needed to use dynamic linear models in practice, using R. Many detailed examples based on real data sets are provided to show how to set up a specific model, estimate its parameters, and use it for forecasting. All the code used in the book is available online. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics or time series analysis is required, although familiarity with basic statistics and R is assumed.
Download or read book Bayesian Inference of State Space Models written by Kostas Triantafyllopoulos and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Inference of State Space Models: Kalman Filtering and Beyond offers a comprehensive introduction to Bayesian estimation and forecasting for state space models. The celebrated Kalman filter, with its numerous extensions, takes centre stage in the book. Univariate and multivariate models, linear Gaussian, non-linear and non-Gaussian models are discussed with applications to signal processing, environmetrics, economics and systems engineering. Over the past years there has been a growing literature on Bayesian inference of state space models, focusing on multivariate models as well as on non-linear and non-Gaussian models. The availability of time series data in many fields of science and industry on the one hand, and the development of low-cost computational capabilities on the other, have resulted in a wealth of statistical methods aimed at parameter estimation and forecasting. This book brings together many of these methods, presenting an accessible and comprehensive introduction to state space models. A number of data sets from different disciplines are used to illustrate the methods and show how they are applied in practice. The R package BTSA, created for the book, includes many of the algorithms and examples presented. The book is essentially self-contained and includes a chapter summarising the prerequisites in undergraduate linear algebra, probability and statistics. An up-to-date and complete account of state space methods, illustrated by real-life data sets and R code, this textbook will appeal to a wide range of students and scientists, notably in the disciplines of statistics, systems engineering, signal processing, data science, finance and econometrics. With numerous exercises in each chapter, and prerequisite knowledge conveniently recalled, it is suitable for upper undergraduate and graduate courses.
Download or read book Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models written by Edward P. Herbst and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2015-12-29 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have become one of the workhorses of modern macroeconomics and are extensively used for academic research as well as forecasting and policy analysis at central banks. This book introduces readers to state-of-the-art computational techniques used in the Bayesian analysis of DSGE models. The book covers Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for linearized DSGE models, novel sequential Monte Carlo methods that can be used for parameter inference, and the estimation of nonlinear DSGE models based on particle filter approximations of the likelihood function. The theoretical foundations of the algorithms are discussed in depth, and detailed empirical applications and numerical illustrations are provided. The book also gives invaluable advice on how to tailor these algorithms to specific applications and assess the accuracy and reliability of the computations. Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models is essential reading for graduate students, academic researchers, and practitioners at policy institutions.
Download or read book Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models written by Mike West and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 720 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book we are concerned with Bayesian learning and forecast ing in dynamic environments. We describe the structure and theory of classes of dynamic models, and their uses in Bayesian forecasting. The principles, models and methods of Bayesian forecasting have been developed extensively during the last twenty years. This devel opment has involved thorough investigation of mathematical and sta tistical aspects of forecasting models and related techniques. With this has come experience with application in a variety of areas in commercial and industrial, scientific and socio-economic fields. In deed much of the technical development has been driven by the needs of forecasting practitioners. As a result, there now exists a relatively complete statistical and mathematical framework, although much of this is either not properly documented or not easily accessible. Our primary goals in writing this book have been to present our view of this approach to modelling and forecasting, and to provide a rea sonably complete text for advanced university students and research workers. The text is primarily intended for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students in statistics and mathematics. In line with this objective we present thorough discussion of mathematical and statistical features of Bayesian analyses of dynamic models, with illustrations, examples and exercises in each Chapter.
Download or read book Theory of Multivariate Statistics written by Martin Bilodeau and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-01-20 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Intended as a textbook for students taking a first graduate course in the subject, as well as for the general reference of interested research workers, this text discusses, in a readable form, developments from recently published work on certain broad topics not otherwise easily accessible, such as robust inference and the use of the bootstrap in a multivariate setting. A minimum background expected of the reader would include at least two courses in mathematical statistics, and certainly some exposure to the calculus of several variables together with the descriptive geometry of linear algebra.
