Download or read book Markov Chains in Predictive Models of Currency Crises written by Roberto S. Mariano and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explores the issue of constructing a monthly economic predictive model of currency crises in Southeast Asia through an alternative econometric methodology that addresses drawbacks in existing approaches.
Download or read book Markov Switching Garch Models of Currency Crises in Southeast Asia written by Celso Burnetti and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Develops a model which is able to forecast exchange rate turmoil.
Download or read book Markov Switching GARCH Models of Currency Turmoil in Southeast Asia written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Recent Financial Crises written by The late Lawrence R. Klein and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2007-01-01 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial crises are recurring phenomena that can cause significant economic and societal loss. This book is therefore vitally important as it analyzes why and how financial crises occur, the extent of their impact, and what can be done to prevent their recurrence or reduce the damage they cause. Comprising original and never-before-published papers by distinguished economists, this book offers insights about lessons that were or should have been learned from recent outbreaks of such crises in East Asia and elsewhere. Recent Financial Crises also presents a set of econometric studies of issues such as labor market behavior, investment and productivity, and exchange rate adjustments. Although China did not have a crisis, its economic behavior was closely monitored in order to see if that had any effect on the crisis conditions. In this respect, the book contains an estimation of China s core inflation rate, as well as its true cost of living index, over a 20-year period spanning the Asian financial crisis. In general, collectively, the studies point to a need for ongoing structural reforms to minimize vulnerability to crises or soften their impact. The necessity for resorting to viable safety nets is also stressed. Policymakers and central bankers will find this book of great value, as will scholars and researchers at many levels of academe, involved in financial, business, and international economics.
Download or read book written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 688 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Advances in Markov Switching Models written by James D. Hamilton and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 267 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a collection of state-of-the-art papers on the properties of business cycles and financial analysis. The individual contributions cover new advances in Markov-switching models with applications to business cycle research and finance. The introduction surveys the existing methods and new results of the last decade. Individual chapters study features of the U. S. and European business cycles with particular focus on the role of monetary policy, oil shocks and co movements among key variables. The short-run versus long-run consequences of an economic recession are also discussed. Another area that is featured is an extensive analysis of currency crises and the possibility of bubbles or fads in stock prices. A concluding chapter offers useful new results on testing for this kind of regime-switching behaviour. Overall, the book provides a state-of-the-art over view of new directions in methods and results for estimation and inference based on the use of Markov-switching time-series analysis. A special feature of the book is that it includes an illustration of a wide range of applications based on a common methodology. It is expected that the theme of the book will be of particular interest to the macroeconomics readers as well as econometrics professionals, scholars and graduate students. We wish to express our gratitude to the authors for their strong contributions and the reviewers for their assistance and careful attention to detail in their reports.
Download or read book Markov Switching Var Model of Speculative Pressure An Application to the Asian Financial Crisis written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Markov switching models with time-varying transition probabilities address the limitations of the earlier methods in the early warning system literature on currency crises. Most of the Markov switching models in the literature are largely based on univariate models of exchange rate fluctuations. In this thesis, the components of the index of speculative pressure are modeled using the Markov Switching VAR with time-varying transition probabilities of Martinez Peria (2002). Two approaches, both of which are derived from this model, are taken to determine the probability of a currency crisis: the probability of a turbulent regime and the expected value of the index of speculative pressure. This study shows that the Markov Switching VAR model with time-varying transition probabilities is a good method to use in building an early warning system of a currency crisis. Results show significant improvement on predicting the Asian Financial Crisis by signaling its occurrence at an earlier period with a higher probability when the probability of a turbulent regime approach is employed. It is also more sensitive in detecting turbulent periods that are not necessarily currency crises and therefore renders itself useful in short-term forecasting of speculative pressure episodes. The leading indicators of the Asian Financial Crisis identified in this study are real effective exchange rate, export growth, GDP growth, real domestic credit, M2 ratio, deposits to M2 ratio and non-FDI flows.
Download or read book Markov Switching VAR Model of Speculative Pressure written by Gregorio A. Vargas (III.) and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Markov switching models with time-varying transition probabilities address the limitations of the earlier methods in the early warning system literature on currency crises. Most of the Markov switching models in the literature are largely based on univariate models of exchange rate fluctuations. In this thesis, the components of the index of speculative pressure are modeled using the Markov Switching VAR with time-varying transition probabilities of Martinez Peria (2002). Two approaches, both of which are derived from this model, are taken to determine the probability of a currency crisis: the probability of a turbulent regime and the expected value of the index of speculative pressure. This study shows that the Markov Switching VAR model with time-varying transition probabilities is a good method to use in building an early warning system of a currency crisis. Results show significant improvement on predicting the Asian Financial Crisis by signaling its occurrence at an earlier period with a higher probability when the probability of a turbulent regime approach is employed. It is also more sensitive in detecting turbulent periods that are not necessarily currency crises and therefore renders itself useful in short-term forecasting of speculative pressure episodes. The leading indicators of the Asian Financial Crisis identified in this study are real effective exchange rate, export growth, GDP growth, real domestic credit, M2 ratio, deposits to M2 ratio and non-FDI flows."--Author's abstract.
Download or read book Hidden Markov Models written by Ramaprasad Bhar and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-04-18 with total page 167 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Markov chains have increasingly become useful way of capturing stochastic nature of many economic and financial variables. Although the hidden Markov processes have been widely employed for some time in many engineering applications e.g. speech recognition, its effectiveness has now been recognized in areas of social science research as well. The main aim of Hidden Markov Models: Applications to Financial Economics is to make such techniques available to more researchers in financial economics. As such we only cover the necessary theoretical aspects in each chapter while focusing on real life applications using contemporary data mainly from OECD group of countries. The underlying assumption here is that the researchers in financial economics would be familiar with such application although empirical techniques would be more traditional econometrics. Keeping the application level in a more familiar level, we focus on the methodology based on hidden Markov processes. This will, we believe, help the reader to develop more in-depth understanding of the modeling issues thereby benefiting their future research.
Download or read book Markov Chains written by Wai-Ki Ching and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-27 with total page 259 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new edition of Markov Chains: Models, Algorithms and Applications has been completely reformatted as a text, complete with end-of-chapter exercises, a new focus on management science, new applications of the models, and new examples with applications in financial risk management and modeling of financial data. This book consists of eight chapters. Chapter 1 gives a brief introduction to the classical theory on both discrete and continuous time Markov chains. The relationship between Markov chains of finite states and matrix theory will also be highlighted. Some classical iterative methods for solving linear systems will be introduced for finding the stationary distribution of a Markov chain. The chapter then covers the basic theories and algorithms for hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Markov decision processes (MDPs). Chapter 2 discusses the applications of continuous time Markov chains to model queueing systems and discrete time Markov chain for computing the PageRank, the ranking of websites on the Internet. Chapter 3 studies Markovian models for manufacturing and re-manufacturing systems and presents closed form solutions and fast numerical algorithms for solving the captured systems. In Chapter 4, the authors present a simple hidden Markov model (HMM) with fast numerical algorithms for estimating the model parameters. An application of the HMM for customer classification is also presented. Chapter 5 discusses Markov decision processes for customer lifetime values. Customer Lifetime Values (CLV) is an important concept and quantity in marketing management. The authors present an approach based on Markov decision processes for the calculation of CLV using real data. Chapter 6 considers higher-order Markov chain models, particularly a class of parsimonious higher-order Markov chain models. Efficient estimation methods for model parameters based on linear programming are presented. Contemporary research results on applications to demand predictions, inventory control and financial risk measurement are also presented. In Chapter 7, a class of parsimonious multivariate Markov models is introduced. Again, efficient estimation methods based on linear programming are presented. Applications to demand predictions, inventory control policy and modeling credit ratings data are discussed. Finally, Chapter 8 re-visits hidden Markov models, and the authors present a new class of hidden Markov models with efficient algorithms for estimating the model parameters. Applications to modeling interest rates, credit ratings and default data are discussed. This book is aimed at senior undergraduate students, postgraduate students, professionals, practitioners, and researchers in applied mathematics, computational science, operational research, management science and finance, who are interested in the formulation and computation of queueing networks, Markov chain models and related topics. Readers are expected to have some basic knowledge of probability theory, Markov processes and matrix theory.
Download or read book Three Essays on Monetary Economics written by Shiu-Sheng Chen and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 174 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Empirical Analysis of Nonlinear Macroeconomic Relations with Applications to Business Cycles and Speculative Currency Attacks written by Zhiwei Zhang and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Currency Crises Sunspots and Markov switching Regimes written by Olivier Jeanne and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book International Finance Discussion Papers written by and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Markov Switching GARCH Models of Currency Turmoil in Southeast Asia written by Robert S. Mariano and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Are Currency Crises Predictable A Test written by Andrew Berg and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been to predict the Asian crisis? The results are mixed but somewhat encouraging. One model, and our modifications to it, provide useful forecasts, at least compared with a naive benchmark. The head-to-head comparison also sheds light on the economics of currency crises, the nature of the Asian crisis, and issues in the empirical modeling of currency crises.
Download or read book Second Thoughts on Second Moments written by William F. Maloney and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The evidence is broadly supportive of an asset view of speculative attacks and the importance of the variance of monetary aggregates in predicting currency crises, but it cast some doubt on existing theories. The literature on speculative attacks has been given new impetus by the collapse of the European currency arrangements beginning in 1992, by the Mexican peso crisis and after-effects in 1994, and most recently by speculative attacks across Asia.One strand of this literature stresses the importance of imbalances in stocks of monetary and financial aggregates rather than traditional flow factors, arguing that massive, volatile capital flows have become a dominant feature of the global landscape, and that exchange-rate levels and current accounts have not proved convincing as proximate causes of crises.Galindo and Maloney test two popular asset-based models of speculative attacks-Krugman and Rotemberg (1992) and Calvo and Mendoza (1995)-especially their emphasis on the second moments of monetary aggregates.Analyzing monthly panels of appropriate countries in three regions, they find evidence for the importance of money/reserve ratios predicted by both models, and their variance as predicted by Calvo and Mendoza.But the variance of velocity does not appear to be important, casting some doubt on the Krugman-Rotemberg target zone framework and the interpretation of the Calvo-Mendoza results. This paper - a product of the Poverty and Economic Management Unit of the Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to understand the determinants of macroeconomic instability. William Maloney may be contacted at [email protected].
