Download or read book Manipulations in Prediction Markets written by Jan Schröder and published by KIT Scientific Publishing. This book was released on 2009 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fraud and manipulation in prediction markets are systematic results of incentive incompatibility, which, if present, have to be detected and balanced. ""Manipulations in Prediction Markets"" gives a critical insight into manipulations that are most likely to occur in prediction markets. In a general approach the book discusses the issue of incentives in markets and the breakdown of the incentive system. On this basis a new way of detecting irregular trading behaviour is introduced.
Download or read book Manipulations in Prediction Markets Analysis of Trading Behaviour Not Conforming with Trading Regulations written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fraud and manipulation in prediction markets are systematic results of incentive incompatibility, which, if present, have to be detected and balanced. ""Manipulations in Prediction Markets"" gives a critical insight into manipulations that are most likely to occur in prediction markets. In a general approach the book discusses the issue of incentives in markets and the breakdown of the incentive system. On this basis a new way of detecting irregular trading behaviour is introduced.
Download or read book Manipulation and mis trust in Prediction Markets written by Lawrence Choo and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Markets are increasingly used as information aggregation mechanisms to predict future events. If policy makers make use markets, parties may attempt to manipulate the market in order to influence decisions. We experimentally find that policymakers could still benefit from following information contained in market prices. Nonetheless, manipulation is detrimental. First, manipulators affect market prices, making them less informative. Second, when there are manipulators, policy makers often ignore - or even act against - the information revealed in market prices. Finally, mere suspicion of manipulation erodes trust in the market, leading to the implementation of suboptimal policies - even without actual manipulation.
Download or read book Affecting Policy by Manipulating Prediction Markets written by Shengle Lin and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Documented results indicate prediction markets effectively aggregate information and form accurate predictions. This has led to a proliferation of markets predicting everything from the results of elections to a company's sales to movie box office receipts. Recent research suggests prediction markets are robust to manipulation attacks and resulting market outcomes improve forecast accuracy. However, we present evidence from the lab indicating that single-minded, well-funded manipulators can in fact destroy a prediction market's ability to aggregate informative prices and mislead those who are making forecasts based upon market predictions. However, we find that manipulators primarily influence market trades meaning outstanding bids and asks remain informative.
Download or read book Just Run Sweepstakes written by 蘇孟謙 and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-04-05 with total page 566 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike
Download or read book Prediction Markets written by Leighton Vaughan Williams and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2011-06-16 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How does one effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the ‘wisdom of the crowd’? Prediction markets, which are essentially speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions, offer the answer to this question. The effective use of these markets has the potential not only to help forecast future events on a national and international level, but also to assist companies, for example, in providing improved estimates of the potential market size for a new product idea or the launch date of new products and services. The markets have already been used to forecast uncertain outcomes ranging from influenza to the spread of infectious diseases, to the demand for hospital services, to the box office success of movies, climate change, vote shares and election outcomes, to the probability of meeting project deadlines. The insights gained also have many potentially valuable applications for public policy more generally. These markets offer substantial promise as a tool of information aggregation as well as forecasting, whether alone or as a supplement to other mechanisms like opinion surveys, group deliberations, panels of experts and focus groups. Moreover, they can be applied at a macroeconomic and microeconomic level to yield information that is valuable for government and commercial policy-makers and which can be used for a number of social purposes. This volume of original readings, contributed by many of the leading experts in the field, marks a significant addition to the base of knowledge about this fascinating subject area. The book should be of interest to anyone looking at monetary economics, economic forecasting and microeconomics.
Download or read book Prediction Markets written by Stefan Luckner and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-11-04 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Accurate predictions are essential in many areas such as corporate decision making, weather forecasting and technology forecasting. Prediction markets help to aggregate information and gain a better understanding of the future by leveraging the wisdom of the crowds. Trading prices in prediction markets thus reflect the traders’ aggregated expectations on the outcome of uncertain future events and can be used to predict the likelihood of these events. This book demonstrates that markets are accurate predictors. Results from several empirical studies reported in this work show the importance of designing such markets properly in order to derive valuable predictions. Therefore, the findings are valuable for designing future prediction markets.
Download or read book Accelerating Democracy written by John O. McGinnis and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains how politicians and citizens can use technology to enhance American democracy.
Download or read book Developing an Effective Model for Detecting Trade Based Market Manipulation written by Jose Joy Thoppan and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2021-05-05 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Developing an Effective Model for Detecting Trade-Based Market Manipulation determines an appropriate model to help identify stocks witnessing activities that are indicative of potential manipulation through three separate but related studies.
Download or read book An Experiment in Marketing Under Territorial Auspices written by Earley Vernon Wilcox and published by . This book was released on 1914 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour written by Kai Arzheimer and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2017-02-27 with total page 1103 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study of voting behaviour remains a vibrant sub-discipline of political science. The Handbook of Electoral Behaviour is an authoritative and wide ranging survey of this dynamic field, drawing together a team of the world′s leading scholars to provide a state-of-the-art review that sets the agenda for future study. Taking an interdisciplinary approach and focusing on a range of countries, the handbook is composed of eight parts. The first five cover the principal theoretical paradigms, establishing the state of the art in their conceptualisation and application, and followed by chapters on their specific challenges and innovative applications in contemporary voting studies. The remaining three parts explore elements of the voting process to understand their different effects on vote outcomes. The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour is an essential benchmark publication for advanced students, researchers and practitioners in the fields of politics, sociology, psychology and research methods.
Download or read book Internet and Network Economics written by Xiaotie Deng and published by Springer. This book was released on 2007-12-03 with total page 611 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the Third International Workshop on Internet and Network Economics, WINE 2007, held in San Diego, CA, USA, in December 2007. The contents were carefully reviewed and selected. The papers are organized in topical sections on equilibrium, information market, sponsored auction, network economics, mechanism design, social networks, advertisement pricing, computational general equilibrium, network games, and algorithmic issues.
Download or read book Probability Choice and Reason written by Leighton Vaughan Williams and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2021-09-16 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Much of our thinking is flawed because it is based on faulty intuition. By using the framework and tools of probability and statistics, we can overcome this to provide solutions to many real-world problems and paradoxes. We show how to do this, and find answers that are frequently very contrary to what we might expect. Along the way, we venture into diverse realms and thought experiments which challenge the way that we see the world. Features: An insightful and engaging discussion of some of the key ideas of probabilistic and statistical thinking Many classic and novel problems, paradoxes, and puzzles An exploration of some of the big questions involving the use of choice and reason in an uncertain world The application of probability, statistics, and Bayesian methods to a wide range of subjects, including economics, finance, law, and medicine Exercises, references, and links for those wishing to cross-reference or to probe further Solutions to exercises at the end of the book This book should serve as an invaluable and fascinating resource for university, college, and high school students who wish to extend their reading, as well as for teachers and lecturers who want to liven up their courses while retaining academic rigour. It will also appeal to anyone who wishes to develop skills with numbers or has an interest in the many statistical and other paradoxes that permeate our lives. Indeed, anyone studying the sciences, social sciences, or humanities on a formal or informal basis will enjoy and benefit from this book.
Download or read book Internet and Network Economics written by Ning Chen and published by Springer. This book was released on 2012-02-02 with total page 430 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 7th International Workshop on Internet and Network Economics, WINE 2011, held in Singapore, in December 2011. The 31 revised full papers and 5 revised short papers presented together with the abstracts of 3 papers about work in progress were carefully reviewed and selected from 100 submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on algorithmic game theory, algorithmic mechanism design, computational advertising, computational social choice, convergence and learning in games, economics aspects of security and privacy, information and attention economics, network games and social networks.
Download or read book A Collection of Surveys on Market Experiments written by Charles Noussair and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-11-27 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprised of 10 surveys by leading scholars, this collection showcases the largest and fastest growing strands of research on market behaviour in experimental economics. Covers topics such as asset markets, contests, environmental policy, frictions, general equilibrium, labour markets, multi-unit auctions, oligopoly markets, and prediction markets Focuses on the literature that has helped economists best understand how markets operate Assesses the impact of developments in theory, policy, and research methods
Download or read book Five Open Questions about Prediction Markets written by Justin Wolfers and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Interest in prediction markets has increased in the last decade, driven in part by the hope that these markets will prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management -- in both the public and private sectors. This paper outlines five open questions in the literature, and we argue that resolving these questions is crucial to determining whether current optimism about prediction markets will be realized.
