Download or read book Making Risky and Important Decisions written by Ruth Murray-Webster and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2021-06-11 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a practical insight to leaders who need to make good decisions in risky and important situations. The authors describe a process for making risk-intelligent decisions, explaining complex ideas simply, and mapping a route through the myriad interrelated influences when groups make decisions that matter. The approach puts the decision maker—you—at the center and explains how you can think and act differently to make better decisions more of the time. The book shows how to Determine the appropriate level of risk Make decisions in uncertain and turbulent conditions Understand how risks are perceived to identify them accurately Develop new behaviors to improve decision-making Making Risky and Important Decisions: A Leader’s Guide builds on earlier ground-breaking publications from these two recognized thought leaders. Their first book together, Understanding and Managing Risk Attitude, brought together the language of risk and risk-taking with the language of emotional intelligence and emotional literacy. Managing Group Risk Attitude followed, and focused on decision-making groups, creating new insights and frameworks. Both books are positioned as specialist textbooks, despite their relevance to real-world situations. A Short Guide to Risk Appetite brought together the concepts of risk appetite and risk attitude into one place for the first time, cutting through confusing terminology and confused thinking to create a practical way of understanding "how much risk is too much risk." This latest installment from Ruth Murray-Webster and David Hillson takes the breadth of their previous work, adds new insights and thinking, and distills it into a highly usable guide for hard-pressed leaders.
Download or read book Risk Savvy written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2015-03-31 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new eye-opener on how we can make better decisions—by the author of Gut Feelings In this age of big data we often trust that expert analysis—whether it’s about next year’s stock market or a person’s risk of getting cancer—is accurate. But, as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer reveals in his latest book, Risk Savvy, most of us, including doctors, lawyers, and financial advisors, often misunderstand statistics, leaving us misinformed and vulnerable to exploitation. Yet there’s hope. In Risk Savvy, Gigerenzer gives us an essential guide to the science of good decision making, showing how ordinary people can make better decisions for their money, their health, and their families. Here, Gigerenzer delivers the surprising conclusion that the best results often come from considering less information and listening to your gut.
Download or read book Risk and Decision Making written by and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1982-01-01 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Making Risky and Important Decisions written by Ruth Murray-Webster and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2021-06-11 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a practical insight to leaders who need to make good decisions in risky and important situations. The authors describe a process for making risk-intelligent decisions, explaining complex ideas simply, and mapping a route through the myriad interrelated influences when groups make decisions that matter. The approach puts the decision maker—you—at the center and explains how you can think and act differently to make better decisions more of the time. The book shows how to Determine the appropriate level of risk Make decisions in uncertain and turbulent conditions Understand how risks are perceived to identify them accurately Develop new behaviors to improve decision-making Making Risky and Important Decisions: A Leader’s Guide builds on earlier ground-breaking publications from these two recognized thought leaders. Their first book together, Understanding and Managing Risk Attitude, brought together the language of risk and risk-taking with the language of emotional intelligence and emotional literacy. Managing Group Risk Attitude followed, and focused on decision-making groups, creating new insights and frameworks. Both books are positioned as specialist textbooks, despite their relevance to real-world situations. A Short Guide to Risk Appetite brought together the concepts of risk appetite and risk attitude into one place for the first time, cutting through confusing terminology and confused thinking to create a practical way of understanding "how much risk is too much risk." This latest installment from Ruth Murray-Webster and David Hillson takes the breadth of their previous work, adds new insights and thinking, and distills it into a highly usable guide for hard-pressed leaders.
Download or read book Handbook on Decision Making written by Jie Lu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-03-15 with total page 457 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents innovative theories, methodologies, and techniques in the field of risk management and decision making. It introduces new research developments and provides a comprehensive image of their potential applications to readers interested in the area. The collection includes: computational intelligence applications in decision making, multi-criteria decision making under risk, risk modelling,forecasting and evaluation, public security and community safety, risk management in supply chain and other business decision making, political risk management and disaster response systems. The book is directed to academic and applied researchers working on risk management, decision making, and management information systems.
Download or read book The Software Architect Elevator written by Gregor Hohpe and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2020-04-08 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the digital economy changes the rules of the game for enterprises, the role of software and IT architects is also transforming. Rather than focus on technical decisions alone, architects and senior technologists need to combine organizational and technical knowledge to effect change in their company’s structure and processes. To accomplish that, they need to connect the IT engine room to the penthouse, where the business strategy is defined. In this guide, author Gregor Hohpe shares real-world advice and hard-learned lessons from actual IT transformations. His anecdotes help architects, senior developers, and other IT professionals prepare for a more complex but rewarding role in the enterprise. This book is ideal for: Software architects and senior developers looking to shape the company’s technology direction or assist in an organizational transformation Enterprise architects and senior technologists searching for practical advice on how to navigate technical and organizational topics CTOs and senior technical architects who are devising an IT strategy that impacts the way the organization works IT managers who want to learn what’s worked and what hasn’t in large-scale transformation
Download or read book HBR Guide to Making Better Decisions written by Harvard Business Review and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2020-02-11 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Learn how to make better; faster decisions. You make decisions every day--from prioritizing your to-do list to choosing which long-term innovation projects to pursue. But most decisions don't have a clear-cut answer, and assessing the alternatives and the risks involved can be overwhelming. You need a smarter approach to making the best choice possible. The HBR Guide to Making Better Decisions provides practical tips and advice to help you generate more-creative ideas, evaluate your alternatives fairly, and make the final call with confidence. You'll learn how to: Overcome the cognitive biases that can skew your thinking Look at problems in new ways Manage the trade-offs between options Balance data with your own judgment React appropriately when you've made a bad choice Communicate your decision--and overcome any resistance Arm yourself with the advice you need to succeed on the job, from a source you trust. Packed with how-to essentials from leading experts, the HBR Guides provide smart answers to your most pressing work challenges.
Download or read book Understanding and Managing Risk Attitude written by Dr David Hillson and published by Gower Publishing, Ltd.. This book was released on 2012-03-01 with total page 207 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite many years of development, risk management remains problematic for the majority of organizations. One common challenge is the human dimension, in other words, the way people perceive risk and risk management. Risk management processes and techniques are operated by people, each of whom is a complex individual, influenced by many different factors. And the problem is compounded by the fact that most risk management involves people working in groups. This introduces further layers of complexity through relationships and group dynamics. David Hillson's and Ruth Murray-Webster's Understanding and Managing Risk Attitude will help you understand the human aspects of risk management and to manage proactively the influence of human behaviour on the risk process. The authors introduce a range of models, perspectives and examples to define and detail the range of possible risk attitudes; looking both at individuals and groups. Using leading-edge thinking on self-awareness and emotional literacy, they develop a powerful approach to address the most common shortfall in current risk management: the failure to manage the human aspects of the process. All this is presented in a practical and applied framework, rather than as a theoretical or academic treatise, based on the authors' shared experiences and expertise, rather than empirical research. Anyone involved in implementing risk management will benefit from this book, including risk practitioners, senior managers and directors responsible for corporate governance, project managers and their teams. It is also essential reading for HR professionals and others interested in organizational or behavioural psychology. This second edition is updated to strengthen the understanding of individual risk attitudes and reinforce what individuals can do to manage those risk attitudes that are leading them away from their objectives. For people who want to embrace this subject, the book highlights ways forward that are proven and practical.
Download or read book Winning Decisions written by J. Edward Russo and published by Crown Currency. This book was released on 2002-04-23 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Business revolves around making decisions, often risky decisions, usually with incomplete information and too often in less time than we need. Executives at every level, in every industry, are confronted with information overload, less leeway for mistakes, and a business environment that changes rapidly. In light of this increased pressure and volatility, the old-fashioned ways of making decisions–depending on intuition, common sense, and specialized expertise–are simply no longer sufficient. Distilling over thirty years of groundbreaking research, Winning Decisions, written by two seasoned business advisers and world leaders in behavioral decision studies, is a comprehensive, one-of-a-kind guide to the proven methods of making critical business decisions confidently, quickly–and correctly. Decision-making is a business skill which managers often take for granted in themselves and others–but it's not as easy as some might think. The authors, whose expertise has been sought out by over a hundred companies, including Arthur Andersen, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, and Unilever, contend that decision-making, like any other skill, must be developed and honed if it is to be used effectively. Winning Decisions offers step-by-step analyses of how people typically make decisions, and provides invaluable advice on how to improve your chances of getting your next big decision right the first time. The book is packed with worksheets, tools, questionnaires, case studies, and anecdotes analyzing major decisions made by organizations like British Airways, NASA, Shell Oil, and Pepsi. Some of the proven, straightforward techniques covered in Winning Decisions include how to: Reframe issues to ensure that the real problem is being addressedImprove the quality and quantity of your options Convert expert yet conflicting opinions into useful insights Make diversity of views and conflict work to your advantage Foster efficient and effective group decision-making Learn from past decisions--your own and those of others With Winning Decisions, managers and other professionals now have access to a proven set of skills and strategies they need for making the right decision, right away.
Download or read book Risk and Decision Making written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1982-02-01 with total page 75 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When people say they must make a decision involving risk, they often mean that the decision involves the possibility of an adverse consequence. This report does not deal with risk and decision making so broadly defined, since almost every important decision in life entails the possibility of an adverse consequence. To narrow its task, the committee concentrated on those decisions involving the possibility of adverse effects for human health, safety, and the environment. This narrowing does not reflect a belief that other types of risks are less important--certainly the personal risks in a career choice or the economic risks faced by people in business are no less important. The focus reflects the committee's expertise and, more important, a growing public awareness of and concern about adverse consequences to human health, safety, and the environment.
Download or read book The Neuroscience of Risky Decision Making written by Valerie F. Reyna and published by American Psychological Association (APA). This book was released on 2014-01-01 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Whether the decision is to have unprotected sex, consent to surgery, have an extra piece of pie, or spend rather than save for retirement, risky decisions permeate our lives, and sometimes with disastrous consequences. How and why risk taking occurs has important implications. Yet many questions remain about how neurobiological, psychological, and socio-cultural factors influence decision-making. This book advances basic understanding and scientific theory about the brain mechanisms underlying risky decision by integrating findings from a number of disciplines, including development and cognitive psychology, brain sciences, law, behavioral economic, and addiction. The result is a rich scientific framework for understanding the causal mechanisms of risky decision making across the lifespan. Book jacket.
Download or read book Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior written by Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1998-08-14 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Simulations are widely used in the military for training personnel, analyzing proposed equipment, and rehearsing missions, and these simulations need realistic models of human behavior. This book draws together a wide variety of theoretical and applied research in human behavior modeling that can be considered for use in those simulations. It covers behavior at the individual, unit, and command level. At the individual soldier level, the topics covered include attention, learning, memory, decisionmaking, perception, situation awareness, and planning. At the unit level, the focus is on command and control. The book provides short-, medium-, and long-term goals for research and development of more realistic models of human behavior.
Download or read book Think Again written by Sydney Finkelstein and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2009-02-03 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why do smart and experienced leaders make flawed, even catastrophic, decisions? Why do people keep believing they have made the right choice, even with the disastrous result staring them in the face? And how can you be sure you're making the right decision--without the benefit of hindsight? Sydney Finkelstein, Jo Whitehead, and Andrew Campbell show how the usually beneficial processes of the human mind can become traps when we face big decisions. The authors show how the shortcuts our brains have learned to take over millennia of evolution can derail our decision making. Think Again offers a powerful model for making better decisions, describing the key red flags to watch for and detailing the decision-making safeguards we need. Using examples from business, politics, and history, Think Again deconstructs bad decisions, as they unfolded in real time, to show how you can avoid the same fate.
Download or read book A Short Guide to Risk Appetite written by Ms Ruth Murray-Webster and published by Gower Publishing, Ltd.. This book was released on 2012-12-28 with total page 169 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk appetite is a hot topic, driven both by corporate governance requirements and senior managers’ need to make risk-based decisions. But despite the high level of interest, there is no consensus on what risk appetite is, how it should be expressed or measured, or how it can be practically used in business or projects. In A Short Guide to Risk Appetite David Hillson and Ruth Murray-Webster cut through the confusion to produce clear definitions and simple guidelines, helping us to answer the important question: ‘How much risk should we take?
Download or read book Adolescent Decision Making written by National Research Council and Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1999-06-14 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Interest in the role that decision making plays in adolescents' involvement in high-risk behaviors led the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Planning and Evaluation of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services to request the Board on Children, Youth, and Families to convene a workshop on adolescent decision making. The Board on Children, Youth, and Families is a joint activity of the National Research Council (NRC) and the Institute of Medicine. A workshop was held on January 6-7, 1998, to examine what is known about adolescents' decision-making skills and the implications of that knowledge for programs to further their healthy development.
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Download or read book Decision Making and Business Performance written by Eric J. Bolland and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2018 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This breakthrough study examines how business decisions explain successful and unsuccessful performance. Real world and academic research is evaluated, including interviews and cases studies, to create a model of how decisions and performance are connected for businesses of all sizes. Recommendations are made to optimize decision making and projections about the future of decision making and performance are provided.
