Download or read book Major Powers Crisis Escalation and War written by Vesna Danilovic and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 592 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Crisis and War written by Patrick James and published by McGill-Queen's Press - MQUP. This book was released on 1988 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using an analysis of patterns of international crisis and war from 1948 to 1975, Patrick James suggests why some international crises result in war while others do not. Over one hundred cases are used to assess the three most prominent explanations for crisis escalation to war: (1) war is the result of rational choice by leaders who expect to gain from it; (2) war is the product of the outward projection of political unrest within states; and (3) war is the result of classical balance of power politics. James concludes that the best explanations for war include elements from all three categories.
Download or read book Crises in World Politics written by Michael Brecher and published by Routledge. This book was released on 1993 with total page 704 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Crises in World Politics presents an integrated theory of crisis at both system and state levels. The Unified Model of Crises was designed to answer core questions: Under what conditions will a crisis erupt? Why do some crises escalate to war while others do not? Under what conditions will a crisis 'wind-down'? How does stress affect decision-making in crises? When will states resort to violence in crisis management? Why do some crises terminate in agreement while others do not? Finally, what are the consequences of crises, both for the adversaries and for the system in which a crisis occurs? The answers lie in a sequence of four interrelated phases of crisis - onset, escalation, deescalation, and impact. Systematic knowledge is presented about how these phases unfold using the data on 70 years of international and foreign policy crises from 1918 to 1988, amassed by the International Crisis Behaviour (ICB) Project. And an in-depth case study applies the United Model to the Gulf Crisis 1990-1991
Download or read book Crisis Bargaining and the Arms Race written by Pierre Allan and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Nuclear Blackmail and Nuclear Balance written by Richard K. Betts and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In numerous crises after World War II—Berlin, Korea, the Taiwan Straits, and the Middle East—the United States resorted to vague threats to use nuclear weapons in order to deter Soviet or Chinese military action. On a few occasions the Soviet Union also engaged in nuclear saber-ratling. Using declassified documents and other sources, this volume examines those crises and compares the decisionmaking processes of leaders who considered nuclear threats with the commonly accepted logic of nuclear deterrence and coercion. Rejecting standard explanations of our leader's logic in these cases, Betts suggests that U.S. presidents were neither consciously blufffing when they made nuclear threats, nor prepared to face the consequences if their threats failed. The author also challenges the myth that the 1950s was a golden age of low vulberability for the United Stateas and details how nuclear parity has, and has not, altered conditions that gave rise to nuclear blackmail in the past.
Download or read book International Political Earthquakes written by Michael Brecher and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2008-08-25 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International Political Earthquakes is the masterwork of the preeminent scholar Michael Brecher. Brecher, who came of age before World War II, has witnessed more than seven decades of conflict and has spent his career studying the dynamics of relations among nations throughout the world. When terrorism, ethnic conflict, military buildup, or other local tensions spark an international crisis, Brecher argues that the structure of global politics determines its potential to develop into open conflict. That conflict, in turn, may then generate worldwide political upheaval. Comparing international crises to earthquakes, Brecher proposes a scale analogous to the Richter scale to measure the severity and scope of the impact of a crisis on the landscape of international politics. Brecher's conclusions about the causes of international conflict and its consequences for global stability make a convincing case for gradual, nonviolent approaches to crisis resolution. Michael Brecher is R. B. Angus Professor of Political Science at McGill University.
Download or read book Roots of War written by David G. Winter and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018 with total page 441 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Roots of War presents systematic archival, experimental, and survey research on three psychological factors leading to war--desire for power, exaggerated perception of threat, and justification for force -- set in comparative historical accounts of the unexpected 1914 escalation to world war and the peacefully - resolved 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis."--Provided by publisher.
Download or read book On Escalation written by Herman Kahn and published by Transaction Publishers. This book was released on 2009-10-01 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this widely discussed and influential book, Herman Kahn probes the dynamics of escalation and demonstrates how the intensification of conflict can be depicted by means of a definite escalation ladder, ascent of which brings opponents closer to all-out war. At each rung of the ladder, before the climb proceeds, decisions must be made based on numerous choices. Some are clear and obvious, others obscure, but the options are always there. Thermonuclear annihilation, says Kahn, is unlikely to come through accident; but nations may elect to climb the ladder to extinction. The basic material for the book was developed in briefings delivered by Kahn to military and civilian experts and revised in the light of his findings of a trip to Vietnam in the 1960s. In On Escalation he states the facts squarely. He asks the reader to face unemotionally the terrors of a world fully capable of suicide and to consider carefully the alternatives to such a path. In the never-never land of nuclear warfare, where nuclear incredulity is pervasive and paralyzing to the imagination even for the professional analyst, salient details of possible scenarios for the outbreak of war, and even more for war fighting, are largely unexplored or even unnoticed. For scenarios in which war is terminated, the issues and possibilities of which are almost completely unstudied, the situation is even worse. Kahn's discussion throws light on the terrain and gives the individual a sense of the range of possibilities and complexities involved and are useful.
Download or read book Dangerous Thresholds written by Forrest E. Morgan and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2008-07-29 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Escalation is a natural tendency in any form of human competition, and today's security environment demands that the United States be prepared for a host of escalatory threats. This analysis of escalation dynamics and approaches to escalation management draws on a range of historical examples from World War I to the struggle against global Jihad to inform escalation-related decisionmaking.
Download or read book Preparing for the Next Foreign Policy Crisis written by Paul B. Stares and published by Council on Foreign Relations Press. This book was released on 2019-12-16 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is vital that the United States devote more attention and resources to preventing and managing potential crises. This report is a distillation of the Center for Preventive Action's findings and recommendations for achieving this goal.
Download or read book Arms and Influence written by Thomas C. Schelling and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2020-03-17 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “This is a brilliant and hardheaded book. It will frighten those who prefer not to dwell on the unthinkable and infuriate those who have taken refuge in stereotypes and moral attitudinizing.”—Gordon A. Craig, New York Times Book Review Originally published more than fifty years ago, this landmark book explores the ways in which military capabilities—real or imagined—are used, skillfully or clumsily, as bargaining power. Anne-Marie Slaughter’s new introduction to the work shows how Schelling’s framework—conceived of in a time of superpowers and mutually assured destruction—still applies to our multipolar world, where wars are fought as much online as on the ground.
Download or read book Inadvertent Escalation written by Barry R. Posen and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2014-01-13 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this sobering book, Barry R. Posen demonstrates how the interplay between conventional military operations and nuclear forces could, in conflicts among states armed with both conventional and nuclear weaponry, inadvertently produce pressures for nuclear escalation. Knowledge of these hidden pressures, he believes, may help some future decision maker avoid catastrophe.Building a formidable argument that moves with cumulative force, he details the way in which escalation could occur not by mindless accident, or by deliberate preference for nuclear escalation, but rather as a natural accompaniment of land, naval, or air warfare at the conventional level. Posen bases his analysis on an empirical study of the east-west military competition in Europe during the 1980s, using a conceptual framework drawn from international relations theory, organization theory, and strategic theory.The lessons of his book, however, go well beyond the east-west competition. Since his observations are relevant to all military competitions between states armed with both conventional and nuclear weaponry, his book speaks to some of the problems that attend the proliferation of nuclear weapons in longstanding regional conflicts. Optimism that small and medium nuclear powers can easily achieve "stable" nuclear balances is, he believes, unwarranted.
Download or read book The Steps to War written by Paul D. Senese and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2008-07-21 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The question of what causes war has concerned statesmen since the time of Thucydides. The Steps to War utilizes new data on militarized interstate disputes from 1816 to 2001 to identify the factors that increase the probability that a crisis will escalate to war. In this book, Paul Senese and John Vasquez test one of the major behavioral explanations of war--the steps to war--by identifying the various factors that put two states at risk for war. Focusing on the era of classic international politics from 1816 to 1945, the Cold War, and the post-Cold War period, they look at the roles of territorial disputes, alliances, rivalry, and arms races and show how the likelihood of war increases significantly as these risk factors are combined. Senese and Vasquez argue that war is more likely in the presence of these factors because they increase threat perception and put both sides into a security dilemma. The Steps to War calls into question certain prevailing realist beliefs, like peace through strength, demonstrating how threatening to use force and engaging in power politics is more likely to lead to war than to peace.
Download or read book Strategy in the Missile Age written by Bernard Brodie and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2015-12-08 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Strategy in the Missile Age first reviews the development of modern military strategy to World War II, giving the reader a reference point for the radical rethinking that follows, as Dr. Brodie considers the problems of the Strategic Air Command, of civil defense, of limited war, of counterforce or pre-emptive strategies, of city-busting, of missile bases in Europe, and so on. The book, unlike so many on modern military affairs, does not present a program or defend a policy, nor is it a brief for any one of the armed services. It is a balanced analysis of the requirements of strength for the 1960's, including especially the military posture necessary to prevent war. A unique feature is the discussion of the problem of the cost of preparedness in relation to the requirements of the national economy, so often neglected by other military thinkers. Originally published in 1959. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.
Download or read book The Senkaku Paradox written by Michael E. O'Hanlon and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2019-04-30 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: America needs better options for resolving potential crises In recent years, the Pentagon has elevated its concerns about Russia and China as potential military threats to the United States and its allies. But what issues could provoke actual conflict between the United States and either country? And how could such a conflict be contained before it took the world to the brink of thermonuclear catastrophe, as was feared during the cold war? Defense expert Michael O'Hanlon wrestles with these questions in this insightful book, setting them within the broader context of hegemonic change and today's version of great-power competition. The book examines how a local crisis could escalate into a broader and much more dangerous threat to peace. What if, for example, Russia's “little green men” seized control of a community, like Narva or an even smaller town in Estonia, now a NATO ally? Or, what if China seized one of the uninhabited Senkaku islands now claimed and administered by Japan, or imposed a partial blockade of Taiwan? Such threats are not necessarily imminent, but they are far from inconceivable. Washington could be forced to choose, in these and similar cases, between risking major war to reverse the aggression, and appeasing China or Russia in ways that could jeopardize the broader global order. O'Hanlon argues that the United States needs a better range of options for dealing with such risks to peace. He advocates “integrated deterrence,” which combines military elements with economic warfare. The military components would feature strengthened forward defenses as well as, possibly, limited military options against Russian or Chinese assets in other theaters. Economic warfare would include offensive elements, notably sanctions, as well as measures to ensure the resilience of the United States and allies against possible enemy reprisal. The goal is to deter war through a credible set of responses that are more commensurate than existing policy with the stakes involved in such scenarios.
Download or read book Deterrence and First Strike Stability in Space written by Forest E. Morgan and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2010-04-13 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Space stability appears to be eroding as a growing number of states acquire the ability to degrade or destroy U.S. space assets. The United States needs a coordinated national space deterrence strategy designed to operate on both sides of a potential adversary 1s cost benefit decision calculus. Future research will determine the most effective and affordable mix of strategies, policies, and systems for strengthening space deterrence.
Download or read book The Paradox of Power written by David C. Gompert and published by Government Printing Office. This book was released on 2020 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The second half of the 20th century featured a strategic competition between the United States and the Soviet Union. That competition avoided World War III in part because during the 1950s, scholars like Henry Kissinger, Thomas Schelling, Herman Kahn, and Albert Wohlstetter analyzed the fundamental nature of nuclear deterrence. Decades of arms control negotiations reinforced these early notions of stability and created a mutual understanding that allowed U.S.-Soviet competition to proceed without armed conflict. The first half of the 21st century will be dominated by the relationship between the United States and China. That relationship is likely to contain elements of both cooperation and competition. Territorial disputes such as those over Taiwan and the South China Sea will be an important feature of this competition, but both are traditional disputes, and traditional solutions suggest themselves. A more difficult set of issues relates to U.S.-Chinese competition and cooperation in three domains in which real strategic harm can be inflicted in the current era: nuclear, space, and cyber. Just as a clearer understanding of the fundamental principles of nuclear deterrence maintained adequate stability during the Cold War, a clearer understanding of the characteristics of these three domains can provide the underpinnings of strategic stability between the United States and China in the decades ahead. That is what this book is about.
