Download or read book Macroeconomic News Announcements and the Yen US Intraday Exchange Rate written by and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Do Both U S and Foreign Macro Surprises Matter for the Intraday Exchange Rate Evidence from Japan written by Rasmus Fatum and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: No previous study has considered the intraday JPY/USD exchange rate responses to a broad set of comparable news surprises from both the U.S. and Japan. We attempt to fill this gap in the literature by investigating the effects of both U.S. and Japanese news surprises, measured as the difference between macroeconomic announcements and preceding survey expectations, on the intraday JPY/USD exchange rate. We show that, overall, Japanese news surprises exert a similar influence on the 5-minute JPY/USD exchange rate returns as U.S. news surprises and, specifically, two of the four most influential macro news emanate from Japan. This finding is robust across three different estimation procedures. In addition, we find asymmetric effects across positive and negative Japanese news surprises when looking at individual Japanese news separately. We also find that the intraday JPY/USD exchange rate responds to a broader set of both U.S. and Japanese news when the Japanese economy is in an upturn, yet it is even more responsive to the consistently most important types of both U.S. and Japanese news when the Japanese economy is in a downturn. Our results show that Japanese macroeconomic news surprises matter for the intraday JPY/USD exchange rate, as do the direction of news surprises and the state of the Japanese business cycle and, therefore, focusing on U.S. news while disregarding foreign news misses half the story.
Download or read book Macroeconomic News Announcements and the CDN USD Intraday Exchange Rate written by Alexandre Mazigi and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper empirically examines the effects of macroeconomic news announcements on the CDN/USD exchange rate. Our process started by dividing our sample observations into four groups: (1) Major US announcement days, (2) minor US announcement days, (3) Canadian news announcement, and (4) Non-announcement days. We compared the volatility for each of these groups based on five-minute intervals during the trading day. Using two different models, we examine which announcements have the greatest impact on the exchange rate. We find that the U.S. announcements that had the most impact were housing starts, leading indicator and to a lesser degree federal funds rate and merchandise trade deficit. The Canadian news announcements that were found to be most significant was the official bank rate followed by Canadian unemployment and Canadian Building permits.
Download or read book Trading Activity and Exchange Rates in High frequency EBS Data written by Alain P. Chaboud and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The absence of data has, until now, precluded virtually all research on trading volume in the foreign exchange market. This paper introduces a new high-frequency foreign exchange dataset from EBS (Electronic Broking Service) that includes trading volume in the global interdealer spot market. The dataset gives volumes and prices at the one-minute frequency over a five-year time period in the euro-dollar and dollar-yen currency pairs. We first document intraday volume patterns in euro-dollar and dollar-yen trading, noting the effects of macroeconomic news announcements but also purely institutional factors. We study the effects of UK-specific holidays on euro-dollar and dollar-yen trading volume and find that these holidays cause a sharp decline in trading volume even among dealers outside the UK, a natural experiment that we interpret as further evidence that trading activity is not driven solely by the flow of news about fundamentals. Studying the reaction to U.S. macroeconomic announcements, we show that a sharp pickup in trading volume generally occurs in the minutes following news announcements. This rise in trading volume happens even if the data release is entirely in line with market expectations, and it is often negatively related to the dispersion of ex-ante market expectations. Finally, focusing on one particular data release at the one-second frequency, we document a two-stage reaction whereby the price jumps immediately after the announcement without much trading volume, while trading volume and volatility then surge about 15 seconds after the data release.
Download or read book Intraday Yen dollar Exchange Rate Movements written by Takatoshi Itō and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Intraday movements in the yen/dollar rate are examined over the 1980-86 period using opening and closing quotes in the New York and Tokyo markets. The results indicate that random-walk behavior is violated about half of the time in various subsamples. However, the economic significance of departures from the random-walk model diminishes over time. Large jumps in the exchange rate also are examined, and some evidence on subsequent mean reversion is presented. Finally, the response of Japanese and U.S. stock prices suggests that intraday yen/dollar rate movements do contain at least some relevant information.
Download or read book Micro Effects of Macro Announcements written by Torben Gustav Andersen and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a new dataset consisting of six years of real-time exchange rate quotations, macroeconomic expectations, and macroeconomic realizations (announcements), we characterize the conditional means of U.S. dollar spot exchange rates versus German Mark, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and the Euro. In particular, we find that announcement surprises (that is, divergences between expectations and realizations, or 'news') produce conditional mean jumps; hence high-frequency exchange rate dynamics are linked to fundamentals. The details of the linkage are intriguing and include announcement timing and sign effects. The sign effect refers to the fact that the market reacts to news in an asymmetric fashion: bad news has greater impact than good news, which we relate to recent theoretical work on information processing and price discovery.
Download or read book The High frequency Effects of U S Macroeconomic Data Releases on Prices and Trading Activity in the Global Interdealer Foreign Exchange Market written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "We introduce a new high-frequency foreign exchange dataset from EBS (Electronic Broking Service) that includes trading volume in the global interdealer spot market, data not previously available to researchers. The data also gives live transactable quotes, rather than the indicative quotes that have been used in most previous high frequency foreign exchange analysis. We describe intraday volume and volatility patterns in euro-dollar and dollar-yen trading. We study the effects of scheduled U.S. macroeconomic data releases, first confirming the finding of recent literature that the conditional mean of the exchange rate responds very quickly to the unexpected component of data releases. We next study the effects of data releases on trading volumes. News releases cause volume to rise, and to remain elevated for a longer period. However, in contrast to the result for the level of the exchange rate, even if the data release is entirely in line with expectations, we find that there is still typically a large pickup in trading volume"--Federal Reserve Board web site.
Download or read book Effects of Japanese macroeconomic announcements on the dollar yen exchange rate high resolution picture written by Yūko Hashimoto and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Market impacts of Japanese macroeconomic announcements within minutes on the dollar/yen foreign exchange are analyzed. High-frequency data collected from the actual trading platform, EBS, are used. First, impacts on returns are analyzed. Macroeconomic statistics releases that consistently had significant effects on exchange rate returns include Tankan survey (a short-term business survey conducted by Bank of Japan), GDP, industrial production (preliminary), PPI, CPI (Tokyo area), the unemployment rate and Balance of Payment statistics. Macroeconomic statistics releases that did not have impacts on returns include Trade Balance, Retail Sales and Housing start indicators. Second, for most of macroeconomic news items whose surprise components have return impacts also have impacts on deals and volatility. The announcement itself, in addition to the magnitude of surprise, is found to increase the deals and price volatility in the immediately after the announcement. In addition, some other items have no return impacts but deals and volatility impacts. These facts are consistent with a view that market participants have heterogeneous information, so that even without any price change, trades take place. Price discovery process may require some transactions with price fluctuations around new price level consistent with statistical announcement.
Download or read book The Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements on Real Time Foreign Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets written by Fang Cai and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper utilizes a unique high-frequency database to measure how exchange rates in nine emerging markets react to macroeconomic news in the U.S. and domestic economies from 2000 to 2006. We find that major U.S. macroeconomic news have a strong impact on the returns and volatilities of emerging market exchange rates, but many domestic news do not. Emerging market currencies have become more sensitive to U.S. news in recent years. We also find that market sentiment could sway the impact of news on these currencies systematically, as good (bad) news seems to matter more when optimism (pessimism) prevails. Market uncertainty also interacts with macroeconomic news in a statistically significant way, but its role varies across currencies and news"--Federal Reserve Board web site.
Download or read book News from the U S and Japan written by Takatoshi Itō and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Intra-daily movements in the yen/dollar exchange rate were examined in four non-overlapping segments within each business day from January1980 to September 1985. The empirical results yielded several conclusions. First, most depreciation of the yen (appreciation of the dollar) from late 1982 to early 1984 occurred in the New York market. The direction of the yen was mostly neutral in the Tokyo market. Also, the volatility of the exchange rate decreased considerably in the Tokyo market. The volatility in the New York market, on the other hand, did not decrease untilvery recently. Second, market efficiency was examined in terms of the random-walk behavior of short-run movements in the yen/dollar rate. Information on the preceding segments within a day was sometimes significant in predicting the exchange rate movement in a market. Third, there is evidence of the "profit-taking" behavior, or overshooting, in that a large jump (more than 3 absolute yen) in any market tends to be reversed by a fifth of the jump during the same day in the next market. Finally,the relative effects of news from the U.S. and Japan were examined explicitly both with respect to possible major events behind large jumps andthe response of the yen/dollar rate to particular economic announcements in both countries. Over the entire sample period, news concerning the U.S. money stock had the only significant effects.
Download or read book Intraday Effect of News on Emerging European Forex Markets written by Evžen Kočenda and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze the impact of Eurozone/Germany and U.S. macroeconomic news announcements and the communication of the monetary policy settings of the ECB and the Fed on the forex markets of new EU members. We employ an event study methodology to analyze intra-day data from 2011-2015. Our comprehensive analysis of the wide variety of macroeconomic information during the post-GFC period shows that: (i) macroeconomic announcements affect the value of the new-EU-country exchange rates, (ii) the origin of the announcement matters, (iii) the type of announcement matters, (iv) different types of news (good, bad, or neutral) result in different reactions, (v) markets react not only after the news release but also before, (vi) when the U.S. dollar is a base currency the impact of the news is larger than in the case of the euro, (vii) announcements on ECB monetary policy result in stronger effects than those of the Fed, (viii) temporary inefficiencies are present on new-EU-country forex markets, (ix) new-EU-country exchange rates react differently on positive US news during the EU debt crisis when compared to the rest of the period.
Download or read book The Sign Switch Effect of Macroeconomic News in Foreign Exchange Markets written by Walid Ben Omrane and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine an unusual episode in the behavior of the euro, pound and yen exchange rate markets when the dollar appreciated (depreciated) against the three major currencies, in response to unfavorable (favorable) US growth news during the global financial crisis. Contrary to the previous findings, we show that, for each currency pair, only a small subset (about a third) of the most significant macro news effects reversed sign, primarily announcements regarding consumption, credit, labor and housing markets. Our results reveal that announcement chronology within a month matters, in that specifically the earliest releases within an indicator category exhibit sign asymmetry. We explore possible sources of the switch in the exchange rate reaction during this period and find that fluctuations in market risk and carry trade returns explain most of the variation in the news response coefficient signs.
Download or read book How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates written by Martin D. D. Evans and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper tests whether macroeconomic news is transmitted to exchange rates via the transactions process and if so, what share occurs via transactions versus the traditional direct channel. We identify the link between order flow and macro news using a heteroskedasticity-based approach, a la Rigobon and Sack (2002). In both daily and intra-daily data, order flow varies considerably with macro news flow. At least half of the effect of macro news on exchange rates is transmitted via order flow.
Download or read book Macroeconomic Announcements and Price Discovery in the Foreign Exchange Market written by Yin-Feng Gau and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article examines the price discovery function around releases of macroeconomic announcements to explore the informational efficiency of prices in a 24-hour trading platform. We study the contribution to price discovery of four periods of trading, including the Asian, European, European-U.S. overlapping, and U.S. markets in the Electronic Broking Services (EBS), using EUR/USD and USD/JPY data. Trading in the overlapping trading hours of London and New York dominates price discovery in currency trading only on days when U.S. announcements are released. News effects also occur on the days before and after announcements are released. This study provides evidence that macroeconomic announcements affect price discovery efficacy across sequential trading periods in the EUR/USD and USD/JPY markets.
Download or read book Macroeconomic News Announcements and the Role of Expectations written by Suk-Joong Kim and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the impact of scheduled government announcements relating to six different macroeconomic variables on the risk and return of three major US financial markets. Our results suggest that these markets do not respond in any meaningful way, to the act of releasing information by the government. Rather, it is the news content of these announcements which cause the market to react. For the three markets tested, unexpected balance of trade news was found to have the greatest impact on the mean return in the foreign exchange market. In the bond market, news related to the internal economy was found to be important. For the US stock market, consumer and producer price information was found to be important. Finally, financial market volatility was found to have increased in response to some classes of announcement and fallen for others. In part, this result can be explained by differential policy feedback effects.
Download or read book EURUSD Exchange Rate written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Determining the movements of currency exchange rates is a longstanding topic in financial market research. Short-term movements are considered to be at least partially explained by the arrival of new information to the market. One way to observe such reactions is to look at scheduled macroeconomic data releases and analyze how markets react if the actual number differs from what was expected. Most studies in this field so far focused on US news announcements. This thesis looks at the euro-dollar exchange rate movements from 2007-2014. It compares news surprises for German, Eurozone and US macroeconomic releases. As opposed to previous studies, the impact of US surprises in recent years appears less dominant, while simultaneously at least German news surprises have the power to move the currency pair when looking at the continuous returns in the first five minutes following the release. Furthermore, it is shown that the response to news surprises change over time alongside fluctuations in the business cycle.
Download or read book The Effects of Macroeconomic News on High Frequency Exchange Rate Behavior written by Richard Payne and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the high frequency reaction of the DEM/USD exchange rate to publicly announced macroeconomic information emanating from Germany and the U.S. By using data sampled at a five-minute frequency, we are able to identify significant impacts of most announcements on the exchange rate change in the 15 minutes post-announcement, although the significance of these effects decreases rapidly as the interval over which the post-announcement change in exchange rates is increased. The direction of the exchange rate response conforms, in general, with a reaction function interpretation whereby reactions to macroeconomic news are driven by the likely operations of monetary authorities in domestic money markets. Further, we detect influences of German monetary policy decisions on the reaction of the exchange rate, and also differences between U.S. and German announcements in the exchange rate reaction time pattern.
