Download or read book Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries written by Mr.Eswar Prasad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-03-01 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper documents the main stylized features of macroeconomic fluctuations for 12 developing countries. Cross-correlations between domestic industrial output and a large group of macroeconomic variables (including fiscal variables, wages, inflation, money, credit, trade, and exchange rates) are presented. Also analyzed are the effects of industrial country economic conditions on output fluctuations in these countries. The robustness of the results is examined using different detrending procedures. The results indicate many similarities between macroeconomic fluctuations in developing and industrial countries (procyclical real wages; countercyclical variation in government expenditure) and some important differences (countercyclical variation in the velocity of monetary aggregates).
Download or read book The Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries written by Mr.Alexander W. Hoffmaister and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-02-01 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries using a structural VAR approach. Identification of the sources is achieved using long-run restrictions derived from a theoretical model of a small open economy encompassing a large number of macroeconomic paradigms; the short-run dynamics are unrestricted. This framework is applied to Brazil and Korea. The results confirm that supply shocks are the main source of GDP fluctuations, even in the short run. Aggregate demand shocks are shown to be important in the short run in Brazil, but not in Korea. External shocks explain a small fraction of the variance of output, whereas the real exchange rate is driven mainly by fiscal shocks. Nominal shocks appear to have little impact on output and the real exchange rate.
Download or read book Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Sub Saharan Africa written by Mr.Alexander W. Hoffmaister and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-07-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub–Saharan African are examined by comparing the CFA franc countries with the non–CFA franc countries. External shocks, especially terms of trade shocks, appear to have a greater influence on fluctuations of output and the real exchange rate in CFA franc countries. This result does not appear to be associated with differences in the economic structure but may reflect the fixed exchange rate regime, which does not (partially) buffer these countries from external shocks. Macroeconomic fluctuations in non–CFA franc countries are similar to those in other developing countries, particularly in Latin America.
Download or read book The Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries written by Alexander W. Hoffmaister and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries using a structural VAR approach. Identification of the sources is achieved using long-run restrictions derived from a theoretical model of a small open economy encompassing a large number of macroeconomic paradigms; the short-run dynamics are unrestricted. This framework is applied to Brazil and Korea. The results confirm that supply shocks are the main source of GDP fluctuations, even in the short run. Aggregate demand shocks are shown to be important in the short run in Brazil, but not in Korea. External shocks explain a small fraction of the variance of output, whereas the real exchange rate is driven mainly by fiscal shocks. Nominal shocks appear to have little impact on output and the real exchange rate.
Download or read book Explaining Macroeconomic Fluctuations in a Developing Country written by Ahmed R. El-Safty and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries with a Parallel Market for Foreign Exchange written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-03-01 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper develops and tests a model of a developing economy that incorporates trade and capital restrictions, illegal transactions, a parallel foreign exchange market, currency substitution features, and forward-looking rational expectations. Temporary expansionary demand policies are associated with an increase in output and prices, a fall in the stock of net foreign assets, and a depreciation of the parallel exchange rate. The speed of adjustment is inversely related to the degree of rationing in the official foreign currency market. A once-for–all devaluation of the official exchange rate has no long-term effect on the premium.
Download or read book The Terms of Trade and Economic Fluctuations written by Mr.Enrique G. Mendoza and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-11-01 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A three-good, stochastic intertemporal equilibrium model of a small open economy is used to examine the link between terms of trade and business cycles. Equilibrium co-movements of model economies representing industrial and developing countries are computed and compared with the stylized facts of 30 countries. The results show that terms-of-trade shocks account for half of observed output variability and that the model mimics the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect and produces large deviations from purchasing power parity. The elasticity of substitution between tradable and nontradable goods and the persistence of the shocks play a key role in producing these results.
Download or read book The Sources of Business Cycles in a Low Income Country written by Romain Houssa and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-25 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the role of global and domestic shocks in driving macroeconomic fluctuations for Ghana. We are able to study the impact of exogenous shocks including productivity, credit supply, and commodity price shocks. We identify the shocks with a combination of sign and recursive restrictions within Bayesian VAR models. As a benchmark we provide results for South Africa to document the difference between two economies with similar structures but different levels of development. We find that global shocks play a more dominant role in South Africa than in Ghana. These shocks operate through three channels: trade, credit and commodity prices.
Download or read book Economic Development and Macroeconomic Fluctuations written by Deepali Shashikant Damle and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation analyzes the changes in macroeconomic fluctuations that take place as an economy develops. A comparison of Business cycles of six Asian economies and the advanced industrial countries indicates that the Asian economies are significantly more volatile. Aggregate output in these economies is nearly twice as volatile as that in the developed countries. Investigating the causes of this higher volatility reveals that the level of economic development is an important factor in explaining this difference.
Download or read book Resources Booms and Macroeconomic Adjustments in Developing Countries written by Mamta Banu Chowdhury and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-11-28 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Chowdhury addresses fundamental issues of policy management in resource-based developing countries, by providing an extension of the existing 'Dutch Disease' theory and its applications to the developing country context. The impact of resources booms is of paramount importance for the developing economies. To date the analytical and empirical investigations of these issues have not been available. Essentially, this study will fill this gap. The book investigates the macroeconomic impact of a resources boom and the long-term growth implications of related policy choices with reference to Papua New Guinea. Like many other primary commodity exporting developing economies, Papua New Guinea experienced several short-lived export booms over the past two and a half decades, providing a fascinating case study of potential gains from resources booms and the accompanying complex problems of policy management. This study also incorporates a comparative study of resources boom and policy management issues between Papua New Guinea, Indonesia and Nigeria.
Download or read book Economic Fluctuations in Sub Saharan Africa written by Mr.Giovanni Melina and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-03-05 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We compare business cycle fluctuations in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries vis-à-vis the rest of the world. Our main results are as follows: (i) African economies stand out by their macroeconomic volatility, which is is reflected in the volatility of output and other macro variables; (ii) inflation and output tend to be negatively correlated; (iii) unlike advanced economies and emerging markets (EMs), trade balances and current accounts are acyclical in SSA; (iv) the volatility of consumption and investment relative to GDP is larger than in other countries; (v) the cyclicality of consumption and investment is smaller than in advanced economies and EMs; (vi) there is little comovement between consumption and investment; (vii) consumption and investment are strongly positively correlated with imports.
Download or read book Devaluation Crises and the Macroeconomic Consequences of Postponed Adjustment in Developing Countries written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1989-01-01 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a small analytical model to explore the relationship between the dynamics of macroeconomic adjustment and the timing of the implementation of an adjustment program featuring a nominal devaluation. The effects of postponing adjustment depend on the source of the original shock. In the case of a fiscal expansion, postponement implies a larger eventual devaluation and greater deviations of macroeconomic variables from their steady-state values. For adverse terms of trade shocks, postponement does not affect the size of the eventual devaluation, but does magnify the degree of post-devaluation overshooting by key macroeconomic variables.
Download or read book On the Welfare Cost of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries written by Michel A. Robe and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomic fluctuations are much stronger in developing countries than in the United States. Yet, while a large literature debates the welfare cost of economic fluctuations in the US, it remains an open question how large that cost is in developing countries. Using several models, we provide such a measure. We find that the welfare cost of consumption volatility per se is far from trivial and averages a substantial multiple of the corresponding US estimate. Moreover, in many poor countries, the welfare gain from eliminating volatility may in fact exceed the welfare gain from an additional percentage point of growth forever.
Download or read book Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-12-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the evolution of volatility and cross-country comovement in output, consumption, and investment fluctuations using two distinct datasets. The results suggest that there has been a significant decline in the volatility of business cycle fluctuations and a slight increase in the degree of cyclical comovement among industrialized countries over time. However, for emerging market economies, financial globalization appears to have been associated, on average, with an increase in macroeconomic volatility as well as declines in the degree of comovement of output and consumption growth with their corresponding world aggregates.
Download or read book Towards Human Development written by Giovanni Andrea Cornia and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2014-04-17 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Human Development is widely recognised as the overriding goal of development, yet its realization is challenged by growing inequality, macro-economic fluctuations, and recurrent financial crises. This edited collection reflects on the work of Richard Jolly and includes contributions from leading scholars of development, all of whom have worked with Richard Jolly at varying points in his distinguished career. The volume advances thinking in the area of Human Development by discussing the evolution of its conceptualization and the policy implications, and the achievements in related key areas such as education, social protection, and employment. It juxtaposes these theoretical and (at times) real life improvements with disturbing developments in terms of growing inequality and macro-economic instability. It documents the growing income inequality which has characterized both developing and developed countries. It shows that there has been a decline in some countries and identifies the policies adopted in these exceptional cases. It also shows also where and how public expenditure on Human Development in developing countries has been affected by the 2008 financial crisis and presents a new framework for a pro-growth pro-Human Development macro-economics, including suggestions for the countercyclical regulation of financial flows. The book also argues that a series of disruptive factors are nudging the innovation trajectory in new potentially pro-poor and pro-Human Development directions, especially if policies speed-up the diffusion of new efficient appropriate technologies in low and middle income economies.
Download or read book Remittances and Macroeconomic Volatility in African Countries written by Ahmat Jidoud and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-03-02 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the channels through which remittances affect macroeconomic volatility in African countries using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model augmented with financial frictions. Empirical results indicate that remittances—as a share of GDP—have a significant smoothing impact on output volatility but their impact on consumption volatility is somewhat small. Furthermore, remittances are found to absorb a substantial amount of GDP shocks in these countries. An investigation of the theoretical channels shows that the stabilization impact of remittances essentially hinges on two channels: (i) the size of the negative wealth effect on labor supply induced by remittances and, (ii) the strength of financial frictions and the ability of remittances to alleviate these frictions.
