Download or read book Macroeconomic Dynamics of Bank Risk in India written by Mohammad Azeem Khan and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Oil-dependent economies face policy challenges when oil prices are not favourable, and the passthrough process often impacts the banking sector. Due to the onslaught of Covid-19 and consequent shutdown globally, the oil prices have risen dramatically and further exacerbated the problems for oil-dependent economies. The present study attempts to interlink the energy market and the banking sector and adds to the existing knowledge about bank risk. Specifically, here we examine the impact of oil prices and oil import, along with other factors, on the systemic risk of Indian banks. Using the weekly data from March 2007 to March 2019 for 34 Indian banks, the paper first estimates the banks' systemic risk using the Delta conditional value at risk (∆CoVaR) approach proposed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2016) based on quantile regression. This measure gives the contribution of a particular bank, being in a risky state, to the loss of the entire banking system. Further, applying the panel vector autoregression and pooled mean group models, the study highlights that oil price, oil import, global economic growth, and stock market volatility are essential determinants of bank risk in India. Increasing oil prices, oil imports, and stock market volatility increase bank risk while improving global economic growth leads to a decline in bank risk. Based on these findings and suggested implications, we hope banks can play a pivotal role in mitigating the adverse impact of oil price fluctuations on industries and macroeconomic variables.

Download or read book Understanding the Response of Indian Banks to Macro Economic Shocks written by Rohit Gupta and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The vulnerability of banks to macroeconomic and financial shocks is an area of growing interest to policymakers, especially in emerging markets. Strong adverse aggregate shocks contribute heavily to loan losses when banks are highly exposed to such shocks. I intend to understand the heterogeneity in Indian bank risk responses to macro shocks. Based on the work of Buch et al. (2010), I intend to discuss how macro factors effect bank risk. Using Factor augmented VAR model, I will allow macroeconomic factors to affect bank risk, when macroeconomic factors themselves are modelled as a function of banking variables. We examine if discriminating strategies impact risk responsiveness of Indian commercial banks to macro-economic shocks using Factor augmented VaR approach for quarterly periods during 2002-13.

Download or read book Macroeconomic Risks and Financial Stability written by Dr. Rabi N. Mishra and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While it is difficult to foresee the triggers for crisis, continuous monitoring and assessment of the buildup of risks need to be an integral part of any policy framework for maintaining overall economic and financial stability. This paper is an attempt in that direction. This paper initially attempts to identify the macro risk indicators, which has potential of causing instability to the economic system and which is then transmitted to the financial system. These risk indicators are then combined into single composite index as an indicator of overall macroeconomic stability. The various risk indicators have been appropriately validated through their impact on GDP and NPAs in the banking system. The paper also initially attempts to identify various financial market indicators which reveal the broad dynamics of the financial system. Similar to the macro risk indicators, these financial market indicators are combined into one composite index and then its relationship with macro risk indicators and their composite index is examined in the VAR framework.A VAR analysis reveals that both the composite indices of macro risks and market risks as developed in this paper have adverse impact on the growth in GDP. Among the various macro risk factors, global and external sector indicators appear to have more severe impact on the growth. The adverse impact of macro risk on growth of GDP was found to be immediate but the impact of market risks indicators increase in size and dominate over time. It is observed that the macro risk indicators have substantial adverse impact on the financial market indicator and its optimal lag works out to be about six months. Results of this exercise though exploratory in nature but are meaningful from policy perspective. One of the advantages of this analysis is its flexibility. It can easily be incorporated in a more comprehensive framework for assessment of systemic risks and for stress tests. The findings of this paper can be further developed while retaining the underlying basic structure.

Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.

Download or read book Powering the Digital Economy Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Finance written by El Bachir Boukherouaa and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-22 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the impact of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the financial sector. It highlights the benefits these technologies bring in terms of financial deepening and efficiency, while raising concerns about its potential in widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The paper advances the discussion on the impact of this technology by distilling and categorizing the unique risks that it could pose to the integrity and stability of the financial system, policy challenges, and potential regulatory approaches. The evolving nature of this technology and its application in finance means that the full extent of its strengths and weaknesses is yet to be fully understood. Given the risk of unexpected pitfalls, countries will need to strengthen prudential oversight.

Download or read book Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects written by Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-10-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: According to a dynamic panel estimated over 1995 - 2008 on around 80 banks in the GCC region, the NPL ratio worsens as economic growth becomes lower and interest rates and risk aversion increase. Our model implies that the cumulative effect of macroeconomic shocks over a three year horizon is indeed large. Firm-specific factors related to risk-taking and efficiency are also related to future NPLs. The paper finally investigates the feedback effect of increasing NPLs on growth using a VAR model. According to the panel VAR, there could be a strong, albeit short-lived feedback effect from losses in banks’ balance sheets on economic activity, with a semi-elasticity of around 0.4.

Download or read book Determinants of Commercial Bank Interest Margins and Profitability written by Asl? Demirgüç-Kunt and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1998 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: March 1998 Differences in interest margins reflect differences in bank characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, existing financial structure and taxation, regulation, and other institutional factors. Using bank data for 80 countries for 1988-95, Demirgüç-Kunt and Huizinga show that differences in interest margins and bank profitability reflect various determinants: * Bank characteristics. * Macroeconomic conditions. * Explicit and implicit bank taxes. * Regulation of deposit insurance. * General financial structure. * Several underlying legal and institutional indicators. Controlling for differences in bank activity, leverage, and the macroeconomic environment, they find (among other things) that: * Banks in countries with a more competitive banking sector-where banking assets constitute a larger share of GDP-have smaller margins and are less profitable. The bank concentration ratio also affects bank profitability; larger banks tend to have higher margins. * Well-capitalized banks have higher net interest margins and are more profitable. This is consistent with the fact that banks with higher capital ratios have a lower cost of funding because of lower prospective bankruptcy costs. * Differences in a bank's activity mix affect spread and profitability. Banks with relatively high noninterest-earning assets are less profitable. Also, banks that rely largely on deposits for their funding are less profitable, as deposits require more branching and other expenses. Similarly, variations in overhead and other operating costs are reflected in variations in bank interest margins, as banks pass their operating costs (including the corporate tax burden) on to their depositors and lenders. * In developing countries foreign banks have greater margins and profits than domestic banks. In industrial countries, the opposite is true. * Macroeconomic factors also explain variation in interest margins. Inflation is associated with higher realized interest margins and greater profitability. Inflation brings higher costs-more transactions and generally more extensive branch networks-and also more income from bank float. Bank income increases more with inflation than bank costs do. * There is evidence that the corporate tax burden is fully passed on to bank customers in poor and rich countries alike. * Legal and institutional differences matter. Indicators of better contract enforcement, efficiency in the legal system, and lack of corruption are associated with lower realized interest margins and lower profitability. This paper-a product of the Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to study bank efficiency.

Download or read book India and the Knowledge Economy written by Carl J. Dahlman and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005-01-01 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "In the global knowledge economy of the twenty-first century, India's development policy challenges will require it to use knowledge more effectively to raise the productivity of agriculture, industry, and services and reduce poverty. India has made tremendous strides in its economic and social development in the past two decades. Its impressive growth in recent years-8.2 percent in 2003-can be attributed to the far-reaching reforms embarked on in 1991 and to opening the economy to global competition. In addition, India can count on a number of strengths as it strives to transform itself into a knowledge-based economy-availability of skilled human capital, a democratic system, widespread use of English, macroeconomic stability, a dynamic private sector, institutions of a free market economy; a local market that is one of the largest in the world; a well-developed financial sector; and a broad and diversified science and technology infrastructure, and global niches in IT. But India can do more-much more-to leverage its strengths and grasp today's opportunities. India and the Knowledge Economy assesses India's progress in becoming a knowledge economy and suggests actions to strengthen the economic and institutional regime, develop educated and skilled workers, create an efficient innovation system, and build a dynamic information infrastructure. It highlights that to get the greatest benefits from the knowledge revolution, India will need to press on with the economic reform agenda that it put into motion a decade ago and continue to implement the various policy and institutional changes needed to accelerate growth. In so doing, it will be able to improve its international competitivenessand join the ranks of countries that are making a successful transition to the knowledge economy."

Download or read book Quest for Restoring Financial Stability in India written by Viral V. Acharya and published by Penguin Random House India Private Limited. This book was released on 2023-08-28 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An excellent primer for students wanting to learn macroeconomics and policymaking - Kaushik Basu An important and timely contribution to our understanding of the Indian economy - Raghuram Rajan How to maintain financial stability in India? Quest for Restoring Financial Stability in India is a classic work to understand this critical subject. In this Penguin edition, with a new introduction, Viral V. Acharya, former Deputy Governor of RBI offers a concrete road map for comprehensive improvement of India's economy. Authoritative and definitive, this is a must read for the students and scholars of Indian economy, policymakers and anyone interested in India's finance sector.

Download or read book Banking on the Principles written by Mr.Thierry Tressel and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-10-01 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies whether compliance with the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision (BCPs) improves bank soundness. The authors find a significant and positive relationship between bank soundness (measured with Moody's financial strength ratings) and compliance with principles related to information provision2. Specifically, countries that require banks to regularly and accurately report their financial data to regulators and market participants have sounder banks. This relationship is robust to controlling for broad indexes of institutional quality, macroeconomic variables, sovereign ratings, and reverse causality. Measuring soundness through Z-scores yields similar results. These findings emphasize the importance of transparency in making supervisory processes effective and strengthening market discipline. Countries aiming to upgrade banking regulation and supervision should consider giving priority to information provision over other elements of the core principles.

Download or read book Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy s Risk Taking Channel written by Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-06-06 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present evidence of a risk-taking channel of monetary policy for the U.S. banking system. We use confidential data on the internal ratings of U.S. banks on loans to businesses over the period 1997 to 2011 from the Federal Reserve’s survey of terms of business lending. We find that ex-ante risk taking by banks (as measured by the risk rating of the bank’s loan portfolio) is negatively associated with increases in short-term policy interest rates. This relationship is less pronounced for banks with relatively low capital or during periods when banks’ capital erodes, such as episodes of financial and economic distress. These results contribute to the ongoing debate on the role of monetary policy in financial stability and suggest that monetary policy has a bearing on the riskiness of banks and financial stability more generally.

Download or read book Corporate Vulnerabilities in India and Banks Loan Performance written by Peter Lindner and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-19 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The financial performance of India's corporate sector has been under pressure since the Global Financial Crisis. Balance-sheet data on a large cross-section of Indian non-financial corporates show that the growth in their leverage over the last 15 years has been associated with a notable increase in the vulnerabilities of firms carrying high interest payment burdens. Gauged by the debt carried by the most vulnerable component of firms, the Indian corporate sector’s vulnerability to severe systemic shocks has increased to levels not seen since 2001. Progress on the macroeconomic front, together with improved credit appraisals and stricter impairment standards on the bank side, will be critical to help India's banks resume their role as economic growth drivers.

Download or read book Dealing with the Challenges of Macro Financial Linkages in Emerging Markets written by Otaviano Canuto and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2013-10-29 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals with the challenges of macro financial linkages in the emerging markets.

Download or read book International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards written by and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2004 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report October 2019 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-16 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The October 2019 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) identifies the current key vulnerabilities in the global financial system as the rise in corporate debt burdens, increasing holdings of riskier and more illiquid assets by institutional investors, and growing reliance on external borrowing by emerging and frontier market economies. The report proposes that policymakers mitigate these risks through stricter supervisory and macroprudential oversight of firms, strengthened oversight and disclosure for institutional investors, and the implementation of prudent sovereign debt management practices and frameworks for emerging and frontier market economies.

Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report April 2021 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-04-06 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extraordinary policy measures have eased financial conditions and supported the economy, helping to contain financial stability risks. Chapter 1 warns that there is a pressing need to act to avoid a legacy of vulnerabilities while avoiding a broad tightening of financial conditions. Actions taken during the pandemic may have unintended consequences such as stretched valuations and rising financial vulnerabilities. The recovery is also expected to be asynchronous and divergent between advanced and emerging market economies. Given large external financing needs, several emerging markets face challenges, especially if a persistent rise in US rates brings about a repricing of risk and tighter financial conditions. The corporate sector in many countries is emerging from the pandemic overindebted, with notable differences depending on firm size and sector. Concerns about the credit quality of hard-hit borrowers and profitability are likely to weigh on the risk appetite of banks. Chapter 2 studies leverage in the nonfinancial private sector before and during the COVID-19 crisis, pointing out that policymakers face a trade-off between boosting growth in the short term by facilitating an easing of financial conditions and containing future downside risks. This trade-off may be amplified by the existing high and rapidly building leverage, increasing downside risks to future growth. The appropriate timing for deployment of macroprudential tools should be country-specific, depending on the pace of recovery, vulnerabilities, and policy tools available. Chapter 3 turns to the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the commercial real estate sector. While there is little evidence of large price misalignments at the onset of the pandemic, signs of overvaluation have now emerged in some economies. Misalignments in commercial real estate prices, especially if they interact with other vulnerabilities, increase downside risks to future growth due to the possibility of sharp price corrections.

Download or read book Macro Prudential Policies to Mitigate Financial System Vulnerabilities written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-08-19 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macro-prudential policies aimed at mitigating systemic financial risks have become part of the policy toolkit in many emerging markets and some advanced countries. Their effectiveness and efficacy are not well-known, however. Using panel data regressions, we analyze how changes in balance sheets of some 2,800 banks in 48 countries over 2000–2010 respond to specific macro-prudential policies. Controlling for endogeneity, we find that measures aimed at borrowers––caps on debt-to-income and loan-to-value ratios––and at financial institutions––limits on credit growth and foreign currency lending––are effective in reducing asset growth. Countercyclical buffers are little effective through the cycle, and some measures are even counterproductive during downswings, serving to aggravate declines, consistent with the ex-ante nature of macro-prudential tools.