Download or read book Macroeconomic Driven Prepayment Risk and the Valuation of Mortgage Backed Securities written by Mikhail Chernov and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We introduce a reduced-form modeling framework for mortgage-backed securities in which we solve for the implied prepayment function from the cross section of market prices. From the implied prepayment function, we find that prepayment rates are driven not only by interest rates, but also by two macroeconomic factors: turnover and rate response. Intuitively, turnover represents prepayments for exogenous reasons like employment-related moves, household income shocks, and foreclosures, while rate response reflects frictions faced by borrowers in refinancing into a lower rate. We find that the empirical turnover and rate response measures are both significantly related to macroeconomic measures, suggesting that these factors represent a source of systematic risk. Consistent with this, we find that implied prepayments are substantially higher than actual prepayments, providing direct evidence of significant prepayment risk premia in mortgage-backed security prices. We analyze the properties of the prepayment risk premium and find that it is almost entirely due to compensation for turnover risk. We also find evidence that mortgage-backed security prices were significantly affected by Fannie Mae credit risk and the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing Programs.
Download or read book The Valuation of Mortgage Backed Securities written by Brett Radcliffe Dunn and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 162 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation focuses on a major challenge to asset pricing theory: the valuation of mortgage-backed securities. In the first chapter of this dissertation (with Mikhail Chernov and Francis A. Longstaff), we develop a three-factor no-arbitrage model for valuing mortgage-backed securities in which we solve for the implied prepayment function from the cross-section of market prices. This model closely fits the cross-section of mortgage-backed security prices without needing to specify an econometric prepayment model. We find that implied prepayments are generally higher than actual prepayments, providing direct evidence of significant macroeconomic-driven prepayment risk premiums in mortgage-backed security prices. We also find evidence that mortgage-backed security prices were significantly affected by Fannie Mae credit risk and the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing programs. In the second chapter, I study the relationship between funding liquidity and the valuation of mortgage-backed securities. Most of the financing for mortgage-backed securities occurs through a trade known as a dollar roll, the simultaneous sale and purchase of forward contracts on mortgage-backed securities that is analogous to a repurchase agreement. I develop a four-factor no-arbitrage model for valuing mortgage-backed securities that allows for the valuation of dollar rolls. Unlike previous models of the dollar roll, I allow for the possibility of a prepayment risk premium. I develop a new measure of mortgage specialness that is independent of prepayment risk premia and agency credit spreads. I find that specialness is related to measures of balance sheet constraints and primary dealer positions in mortgage-backed securities.
Download or read book Modelling of Mortgage Prepayment and the Valuation of Mortgage backed Securities written by Yanli Cheng and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While option-theoretic models are widely used in valuation of other fixed-income instruments, their applications for the valuation of mortgage-backed securities face challenges. Mortgages are explicitly written with a call option, which allows mortgagors to prepay their mortgages any time before the maturity. The magnitude and timing of exercising the prepayment options are not purely driven by economic factors, but also the mortgagor's individual preferences and personal behaviours. This brings difficulties to valuing mortgage-backed securities with conventional models. In this thesis we aim to explore the prepayment risk caused uncertainties in valuation of mortgage-backed securities. We start with empirically examining an option-theoretic model proposed by Kalotay, Yang and Fabozzi (2004). This model has special features to treat borrower heterogeneity and suboptimal exercises of the prepayment options. Based on the empirical results, we propose to employ linear prepayment functions to model borrower heterogeneity. The new MBS valuation model with the integration of linear prepayment functions is also tested with empirical data. Our results suggest that mortgages with different coupon rates have different refinancing tendencies even towards the same market rate change. Therefore, assuming the same refinancing pattern to all classes of mortgages may lead to errors in pricing mortgages and MBSs. For mortgages with coupon rate below the prevailing refinancing rate (as proxied by the 30 year libor rate) plus the refinancing cost, a prepayment function with a low initial prepayment rate and a high slope will model the prepayments best. On the other hand, for mortgages with coupon rate above the current refinancing rate plus the refinancing cost, a prepayment function with a high initial prepayment and a mild slope will perform best. Meanwhile, refinancing burnout is also an important factor in modelling mortgage prepayment. Our results suggest that when the underlying mortgages are seasoned mortgages, especially when the prepayment option has been deep-in-the-money for a long time, the low initial prepayment high slope function will model their prepayments the best. Once these different refinancing tendencies are factored in the modelling of mortgage prepayment, the accuracy of the MBS valuation model is greatly improved.
Download or read book Mortgage Backed Securities written by Frank J. Fabozzi and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-08-31 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An up-to-date look at the latest innovations in mortgage-backed securities Since the last edition of Mortgage-Backed Securities was published over three years ago, much has changed in the structured credit market. Frank Fabozzi, Anand Bhattacharya, and William Berliner all have many years of experience working in the fixed-income securitization markets, and have witnessed many cycles of change in the mortgage and MBS sectors. And now, with the Second Edition of Mortgage-Backed Securities, they share their knowledge on many of the products and structuring innovations that have taken place since the financial crisis and fiscal reform. Written in a straightforward and accessible style, and containing numerous illustrations, this timely guide skillfully addresses the investment characteristics, creation, and analysis of mortgage-backed securities. Each chapter contains cutting-edge concepts that you'll need to understand in order to thrive within this arena. Discusses the dynamic interaction between the mortgage industry, home prices, and credit performance Addresses revised valuation techniques in which all non-agency MBS must be treated as credit pieces Examines the shift in this marketplace since the crisis and the impact on industry and investors Filled with in-depth insights and expert advice, Mortgage-Backed Securities, Second Edition offers you a realistic assessment of this field and outlines the products, structures, and analytical techniques you need to know about in this evolving arena.
Download or read book Prepayment and the Valuation of Mortgage Backed Securities written by Eduardo S. Schwartz and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Modeling Prepayment Risk and Valuing Mortgage backed Securities written by David G. Anderson and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book An Analysis of Prepayment Risk and the Valuation of American Mortgage backed Securities written by Yong Chen and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Mortgage Valuation Models written by Andrew S. Davidson and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2014 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Valuation of mortgage-backed securities requires blending empirical analysis of borrower behavior and mathematical modeling of interest rates and home prices, with recognition of various prices of risk and uncertainty. This book offers a detailed description of the sophisticated theories and advanced methods used for the real-world valuation of MBS.
Download or read book Advances in the Valuation and Management of Mortgage Backed Securities written by Frank J. Fabozzi and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1999-01-15 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advances in the Valuation and Management of Mortgage-Backed Securities details the latest developments for valuing mortgage-backed securities and measuring and controlling the interest rate risk of these securities. Complete coverage includes: decomposition of mortgage spreads, MBS index replication strategies and market neutral strategies, Monte Carlo/OAS methodology, valuation of inverse floaters and ARMs, relative value analysis, and hedging mortgage instruments against level risk and yield curve risk.
Download or read book Prepayment Risk and Mortgage backed Securities Pricing written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Interest only principle only Mortgage backed Strips written by Alan J. Marcus and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Handbook of Mortgage Backed Securities written by Frank J. Fabozzi and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2005-12-30 with total page 1270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The definitive MBS guide, with fully updated material on the latest mortgage-backed products, methods, models, and portfolio strategies By providing hands-on information vital to market participants, previous editions of The Handbook of Mortgage-Backed Securities were instrumental in fueling the growth of the mortgage-backed securities market. The sixth edition contains all the elements that made previous editions so successful and influential, and provides you with more than 25 new chapters on topics including collateralized mortgage obligations, prepayment derivatives, loan level determinants of repayments, new approaches to MBS valuation, and a survey of non-U.S. mortgage rates.
Download or read book Analyses of Mortgage Backed Securities Based on Unobservable Prepayment Cost Processes written by Hidetoshi Nakagawa and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a prepayment model of mortgage based on a structural approach in order to analyze prepayment risk of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). We introduce a continuous process named prepayment cost process. Specifically, each mortgagor's prepayment time is defined by the first time when her or his prepayment cost process falls below zero, but prepayment cost processes are supposed to be unobservable in the market. We also introduce a risk unique to each loan pool of mortgages, called a loan pool risk (LPR), and we regard LPR as a systematic risk other than interest rate. Using the model, we discuss the conditional distribution of prepayment times and a risk-neutral valuation of pass-through MBS. It is shown that each mortgagor's conditional non-prepayment probability and the posterior distribution of LPR play quite important roles in our study.
Download or read book Implied Prepayments written by Oren Cheyette and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Valuation of mortgage backed securities (MBS) using option theoretic methods presents some puzzles. First, the option adjusted spreads (OASs) of passthroughs are significantly larger than the spreads of agency debt, even though they are comparable credits. Second, the OASs of interest only (IO) and principal only (PO) strips are typically very different from those of the passthroughs they were created from - IOs generally have large positive OASs while POs have negative OASs. These results are inconsistent with the no-arbitrage principle which underlies the valuation model. I argue in this paper that these puzzles arise from our failure to properly account for the market's pricing of risk due to changes in prepayments unrelated to interest rate changes. I also demonstrate that it is possible to construct a prepayment model inferred purely from market prices of MBS which, when used in a standard valuation model, automatically takes account of the market price of prepayment risk. A theoretical motivation is provided for the construction of this model.
Download or read book Prepayment Risk and Expected MBS Returns written by Peter Diep and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: We present a simple, linear asset pricing model of the cross section of Mortgage-Backed Security (MBS) returns. We measure prepayment risk and estimate security risk loadings using real data on prepayment forecasts vs. realizations. Estimated loadings are monotonic in securities' coupons relative to the par coupon, as predicted by the model. Prepayment risks appear to be priced by specialized MBS investors. In particular, we find convincing evidence that prepayment risk prices change sign over time with the sign of a representative MBS investor's exposure to prepayment risk
Download or read book The Valuation Mortgaged Backed Securities written by William W. Bartlett and published by McGraw-Hill Education. This book was released on 1993-12-22 with total page 667 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Here is the first user-friendly guide to valuing mortgage-backed securities in the new prepayment environment. William Bartlett offers specific guidelines for making informed decisions, focusing on the questions to ask before pursuing high-stated yield with bond classes and derivatives that may not perform well in volatile markets. The Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securties explores: the econometric models--such as prepayment and OAS models--used by Wall Street firms to project the performance of specific MBS bond types; the many varieties of mortgage-backed securities, including those with protection features against early prepayment, default, refinancing and first calls on cash flows; how to determine which MBS issue may be appropriate for a specific portfolio objective.
Download or read book The Handbook of Mortgage Backed Securities 7th Edition written by Frank J. Fabozzi and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2016-09-01 with total page 916 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edition of The Handbook of Mortgage-Backed Securities, the first revision following the subprime mortgage crisis, is designed to provide not only the fundamentals of these securities and the investment characteristics that make them attractive to a broad range of investors, but also extensive coverage on the state-of-the-art strategies for capitalizing on the opportunities in this market. The book is intended for both the individual investor and the professional manager. The volume includes contributions from a wide range of experts most of whom have been actively involved in the evolution of the mortgage-backed securities market.
