Download or read book Macroeconomic Determinants of Carry Trade Activity written by Alessio Anzuini and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Impact of Macroeconomic Surprises on Carry Trade Activity written by Michael M. Hutchison and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Can official news and policy announcements affect foreign exchange speculation? This paper investigates the impact of macroeconomic surprises on risk perceptions of carry traders and the size of their overall positions. Unlike much of the previous literature, we are able to identify a significant impact of macroeconomic surprises on foreign exchange volatility of JPY/USD even at low (daily) frequency. We use information gleaned from risk reversal contracts (tails of the implied returns distribution) during the period when concerns about sharp yen appreciation were particularly high, hence more likely to show up in the price of risk. We also consider a broader set of U.S. and Japanese news than previous work, focusing on the announcements with particularly large surprise components to them. Overall, we find that macroeconomic news is an important determinant of risk reversals during periods of heavy carry trade volume, particularly when the cost of hedging against large yen appreciation is increasing. The results are more supportive of the trade-balance flow channel over portfolio-balance or monetary channel of exchange rate determination during the sample period. Specifically, Japan (U.S.) macro news that worsen (improve) the trade balance generally are associated with less perceived risk of sharp yen appreciation, as reflected in the value of risk reversals. Moreover, there is a close link between risk reversals and non-commercial futures positions. We calculate a substantial effect of macroeconomic news on carry trade activity, with risk reversals (the cost of hedging) as the transmission mechanism.

Download or read book Carry Trade Activity in International Markets written by Keshav Rastogi and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Interest rate differentials have been a driving force behind exchange rate movements in recent years .Low exchange rate volatility and persistent interest rate differentials have underpinned significant cross-currency positioning in recent years. This has focused market attention on the role of currency carry trade positions, and on the possibility that a sudden unwinding might adversely affect financial stability. The paper outlines the trading strategies used in carry trades, and then explores various sources of data to gauge carry trade activity by analyzing the ex-post uncovered interest returns and Risk-return trade offs for the sample target currencies using yen as the funding currency. The paper examines past and recent patterns of short term speculative flows that have led to financial fragility and increased costs for a number of economies.

Download or read book Carry Trade in Emerging Markets written by Yucheng Jiang and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper finds that currency carry trade, which is borrowing money from a low interest rate country and lending it into a high interest rate country, can generate high excess profits and high alpha in both developed and emerging markets. The profit from G-10 country carry trade is mainly from strong exchange rates, while most of the emerging markets carry trades profits are from the huge interest rate differential. Emerging market (EM) data are more favorable to the UIP hypothesis that high interest rate currency is usually depreciated, but G-10 countries are the opposite. By using quantile regression, we find that higher interest rate differential is usually associated with the exchange rate crash of the high interest rate currency. In addition, carry trade portfolios are exposed to multiple risk factors. Those factors are more significant at the low tail distribution of returns. Commodities prices and emerging market equities index positively predicted next month's carry trade return. Liquidity condition in the U.S. is negatively related to G-10 country carry trade, but not related to emerging markets. Finally, high country risk predicted high carry trade return.

Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.

Download or read book The Financing of Catastrophe Risk written by Kenneth A. Froot and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 490 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is it possible that the insurance and reinsurance industries cannot handle a major catastrophe? Ten years ago, the notion that the overall cost of a single catastrophic event might exceed $10 billion was unthinkable. With ever increasing property-casualty risks and unabated growth in hazard-prone areas, insurers and reinsurers now envision the possibility of disaster losses of $50 to $100 billion in the United States. Against this backdrop, the capitalization of the insurance and reinsurance industries has become a crucial concern. While it remains unlikely that a single event might entirely bankrupt these industries, a big catastrophe could place firms under severe stress, jeopardizing both policy holders and investors and causing profound ripple effects throughout the U.S. economy. The Financing of Catastrophe Risk assembles an impressive roster of experts from academia and industry to explore the disturbing yet realistic assumption that a large catastrophic event is inevitable. The essays offer tangible means of both reassessing and raising the level of preparedness throughout the insurance and reinsurance industries.

Download or read book Exchange Rate Dynamics written by Martin D. D. Evans and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-03-14 with total page 561 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and in-depth look at exchange-rate dynamics Variations in the foreign exchange market influence all aspects of the world economy, and understanding these dynamics is one of the great challenges of international economics. This book provides a new, comprehensive, and in-depth examination of the standard theories and latest research in exchange-rate economics. Covering a vast swath of theoretical and empirical work, the book explores established theories of exchange-rate determination using macroeconomic fundamentals, and presents unique microbased approaches that combine the insights of microstructure models with the macroeconomic forces driving currency trading. Macroeconomic models have long assumed that agents—households, firms, financial institutions, and central banks—all have the same information about the structure of the economy and therefore hold the same expectations and uncertainties regarding foreign currency returns. Microbased models, however, look at how heterogeneous information influences the trading decisions of agents and becomes embedded in exchange rates. Replicating key features of actual currency markets, these microbased models generate a rich array of empirical predictions concerning trading patterns and exchange-rate dynamics that are strongly supported by data. The models also show how changing macroeconomic conditions exert an influence on short-term exchange-rate dynamics via their impact on currency trading. Designed for graduate courses in international macroeconomics, international finance, and finance, and as a go-to reference for researchers in international economics, Exchange-Rate Dynamics guides readers through a range of literature on exchange-rate determination, offering fresh insights for further reading and research. Comprehensive and in-depth examination of the latest research in exchange-rate economics Outlines theoretical and empirical research across the spectrum of modeling approaches Presents new results on the importance of currency trading in exchange-rate determination Provides new perspectives on long-standing puzzles in exchange-rate economics End-of-chapter questions cement key ideas

Download or read book The Icelandic Financial Crisis written by Ásgeir Jónsson and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-02-02 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a detailed account of Iceland’s recovery from the tumultuous banking collapse that overturned its financial industry in 2008. Early chapters recount how Iceland’s central bank was unable to follow the quantitative easing policies of the time to print money and save the banks, while serving the world ́s smallest currency area. The book goes on to explore how the government exercised force majeure rights to implement emergency legislation aimed at preventing the “socialization of losses”. Later chapters investigate how, eight years later, these policies have yielded renewed growth and reinvigorated liquidity streams for the financial system. The authors argue that Iceland, long-called the ‘canary in the coal mine’ of the developed world, offers important lessons for the future. This book will be useful to all readers interested in better understanding the unique history of Iceland’s banking crisis and the phenomena of its recovery.

Download or read book The Rise of Carry The Dangerous Consequences of Volatility Suppression and the New Financial Order of Decaying Growth and Recurring Crisis written by Tim Lee and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2019-12-13 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Protect yourself from the next financial meltdown with this game-changing primer on financial markets, the economy—and the meteoric rise of carry. The financial shelves are filled with books that explain how popular carry trading has become in recent years. But none has revealed just how significant a role it plays in the global economy—until now. A groundbreaking book sure to leave its mark in the canon of investing literature, The Rise of Carry explains how carry trading has virtually shaped the global economic picture—one of decaying economic growth, recurring crises, wealth disparity, and, in too many places, social and political upheaval. The authors explain how carry trades work—particularly in the currency and stock markets—and provide a compelling case for how carry trades have come to dominate the entire global business cycle. They provide thorough analyses of critical but often overlooked topics and issues, including: •The active role stock prices play in causing recessions—as opposed to the common belief that recessions cause price crashes •The real driving force behind financial asset prices •The ways that carry, volatility selling, leverage, liquidity, and profitability affect the business cycle •How positive returns to carry over time are related to market volatility—and how central bank policies have supercharged these returns Simply put, carry trading is now the primary determinant of the global business cycle—a pattern of long, steady but unspectacular expansions punctuated by catastrophic crises. The Rise of Carry provides foundational knowledge and expert insights you need to protect yourself from what have come to be common market upheavals—as well as the next major crisis.

Download or read book Handbook of Exchange Rates written by Jessica James and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-05-29 with total page 674 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for Handbook of Exchange Rates “This book is remarkable. I expect it to become the anchor reference for people working in the foreign exchange field.” —Richard K. Lyons, Dean and Professor of Finance, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley “It is quite easily the most wide ranging treaty of expertise on the forex market I have ever come across. I will be keeping a copy close to my fingertips.” —Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management How should we evaluate the forecasting power of models? What are appropriate loss functions for major market participants? Is the exchange rate the only means of adjustment? Handbook of Exchange Rates answers these questions and many more, equipping readers with the relevant concepts and policies for working in today’s international economic climate. Featuring contributions written by leading specialists from the global financial arena, this handbook provides a collection of original ideas on foreign exchange (FX) rates in four succinct sections: • Overview introduces the history of the FX market and exchange rate regimes, discussing key instruments in the trading environment as well as macro and micro approaches to FX determination. • Exchange Rate Models and Methods focuses on forecasting exchange rates, featuring methodological contributions on the statistical methods for evaluating forecast performance, parity relationships, fair value models, and flow–based models. • FX Markets and Products outlines active currency management, currency hedging, hedge accounting; high frequency and algorithmic trading in FX; and FX strategy-based products. • FX Markets and Policy explores the current policies in place in global markets and presents a framework for analyzing financial crises. Throughout the book, topics are explored in-depth alongside their founding principles. Each chapter uses real-world examples from the financial industry and concludes with a summary that outlines key points and concepts. Handbook of Exchange Rates is an essential reference for fund managers and investors as well as practitioners and researchers working in finance, banking, business, and econometrics. The book also serves as a valuable supplement for courses on economics, business, and international finance at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.

Download or read book International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards written by and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2004 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Slow Moving Capital written by Mark Mitchell and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study three cases in which specialized arbitrageurs lost significant amounts of capital and, as a result, became liquidity demanders rather than providers. The effects on security markets were large and persistent: Prices dropped relative to fundamentals and the rebound took months. While multi-strategy hedge funds who were not capital constrained increased their positions, a large fraction of these funds actually acted as net sellers consistent with the view that information barriers within a firm (not just relative to outside investors) can lead to capital constraints for trading desks with mark-to-market losses. Our findings suggest that real world frictions impede arbitrage capital.

Download or read book Dominant Currency Paradigm A New Model for Small Open Economies written by Camila Casas and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-22 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.

Download or read book Economics Advances in Research and Application 2013 Edition written by and published by ScholarlyEditions. This book was released on 2013-06-21 with total page 886 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economics—Advances in Research and Application: 2013 Edition is a ScholarlyEditions™ book that delivers timely, authoritative, and comprehensive information about Tariffs. The editors have built Economics—Advances in Research and Application: 2013 Edition on the vast information databases of ScholarlyNews.™ You can expect the information about Tariffs in this book to be deeper than what you can access anywhere else, as well as consistently reliable, authoritative, informed, and relevant. The content of Economics—Advances in Research and Application: 2013 Edition has been produced by the world’s leading scientists, engineers, analysts, research institutions, and companies. All of the content is from peer-reviewed sources, and all of it is written, assembled, and edited by the editors at ScholarlyEditions™ and available exclusively from us. You now have a source you can cite with authority, confidence, and credibility. More information is available at http://www.ScholarlyEditions.com/.

Download or read book Changing Patterns of Global Trade written by Nagwa Riad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-01-15 with total page 87 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Changing Patterns of Global Trade outlines the factors underlying important shifts in global trade that have occurred in recent decades. The emergence of global supply chains and their increasing role in trade patterns allowed emerging market economies to boost their inputs in high-technology exports and is associated with increased trade interconnectedness.The analysis points to one important trend taking place over the last decade: the emergence of China as a major systemically important trading hub, reflecting not only the size of trade but also the increase in number of its significant trading partners.

Download or read book CEPAL Review written by and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 672 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The 2008 Global Financial Crisis in Retrospect written by Robert Z. Aliber and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-06-01 with total page 443 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book addresses the causes and consequences of the international financial crisis of 2008. A range of esteemed contributors explore developments in the United States, where the crisis of 2008 originated, as well as the smallest country affected, Iceland, by evaluating developments since 2008. Currently, many countries are facing similar problems as Iceland did in 2008: this book is of interest to economists and policy makers in these countries to study what happened in Iceland, and why the recovery of that economy was strong and swift. The chapters in this book originate from panel discussions and conferences and explore areas including regulation, state projects and inflation.