Download or read book Macroeconometric Models for Portfolio Management written by Jeremy Kwok and published by Vernon Press. This book was released on 2021-09-07 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ‘Macroeconometric Models for Portfolio Management’ begins by outlining a portfolio management framework into which macroeconometric models and backtesting investment strategies are integrated. It is followed by a discussion on the theoretical backgrounds of both small and global large macroeconometric models, including data selection, estimation, and applications. Other practical concerns essential to managing a portfolio with decisions driven by macro models are also covered: model validation, forecast combination, and evaluation. The author then focuses on applying these models and their results on managing the portfolio, including making trading rules and asset allocation across different assets and risk management. The book finishes by showing portfolio examples where different investment strategies are used and illustrate how the framework can be applied from the beginning of collecting data, model estimation, and generating forecasts to how to manage portfolios accordingly. This book aims to bridge the gap between academia and practising professionals. Readers will attain a rigorous understanding of the theory and how to apply these models to their portfolios. Therefore, ‘Macroeconometric Models for Portfolio Management’ will be of interest to academics and scholars working in macroeconomics and finance; to industry professionals working in financial economics and asset management; to asset managers and investors who prefer systematic investing over discretionary investing; and to investors who have a strong interest in macroeconomic influences on their portfolio.

Download or read book Macroeconometric Models written by Władysław Welfe and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-02-15 with total page 435 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book gives a comprehensive description of macroeconometric modeling and its development over time. The first part depicts the history of macroeconometric model building, starting with Jan Tinbergen's and Lawrence R. Klein's contributions. It is unique in summarizing the development and specific structure of macroeconometric models built in North America, Europe, and various other parts of the world. The work thus offers an extensive source for researchers in the field. The second part of the book covers the systematic characteristics of macroeconometric models. It includes the household and enterprise sectors, disequilibria, financial flows, and money market sectors.

Download or read book Inside a Modern Macroeconometric Model written by Alan A. Powell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As Ken Wallis (1993) has pOinted out, all macroeconomic forecasters and policy analysts use economic models. That is, they have a way of going from assumptions about macroeconomic policy and the international environment, to a prediction of the likely future state of the economy. Some people do this in their heads. Increasingly though, forecasting and policy analysis is based on a formal, explicit model, represented by a set of mathematical equations and solved by computer. This provides a framework for handling, in a consistent and systematic manner, the ever-increasing amounts of relevant information. Macroeconometric modelling though, is an inexact science. A manageable model must focus only on the major driving forces in a complex economy made up of millions of households and fIrms. International economic agencies such as the IMF and OECD, and most treasuries and central banks in western countries, use macroeconometric models in their forecasting and policy analysis. Models are also used for teaching and research in universities, as well as for commercial forecasting in the private sector.

Download or read book Testing Macroeconometric Models written by Ray C. Fair and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 1994 with total page 462 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book Ray Fair expounds powerful techniques for estimating and analyzing macroeconometric models. He takes advantage of the remarkable decrease in computational costs that has occurred since the early 1980s by implementing such sophisticated techniques as stochastic simulation. Testing Macroeconometric Models also incorporates the assumption of rational expectations in the estimation, solution, and testing of the models. And it presents the latest versions of Fair's models of the economies of the United States and other countries. After estimating and testing the U.S. model, Fair analyzes its properties, including those relevant to economic policymakers: the optimal monetary policy instrument, the effect of a government spending reduction on the government deficit, whether monetary policy is becoming less effective over time, and the sensitivity of policy effects to the assumption of rational expectations. Ray Fair has conducted research on structural macroeconometric models for more than twenty years. With interest increasing in the area, this book will be an essential reference for macroeconomists.

Download or read book Long term Portfolio Management with a Structural Macroeconomic Model written by Ludovic Calés and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A History of Macroeconometric Model building written by Ronald G. Bodkin and published by Aldershot, Hants, England : E. Elgar. This book was released on 1991 with total page 600 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This major book presents, for the first time, an authoritative history of developments in macroeconometric modelling since the 1930s. It focuses in particular on the construction of mathematico-statistical models of entire economies, estimated from national accounts and other macroeconomic data. International and comparative in scope, the book contains chapters prepared by specialists from the different countries concerned. This landmark book is indispensable to an understanding of the history and development of large scale econometric models of modern economies.

Download or read book Specification Estimation and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models written by Ray C. Fair and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 1984 with total page 504 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book gives a practical, applications-oriented account of the latest techniques for estimating and analyzing large, nonlinear macroeconomic models. Ray Fair demonstrates the application of these techniques in a detailed presentation of several actual models, including his United States model, his multicountry model, Sargent's classical macroeconomic model, autoregressive and vector autoregressive models, and a small (twelve equation) linear structural model. He devotes a good deal of attention to the difficult and often neglected problem of moving from theoretical to econometric models. In addition, he provides an extensive discussion of optimal control techniques and methods for estimating and analyzing rational expectations models. A computer program that handles all the techniques in the book is available from the author, making it possible to use the techniques with little additional programming. The book presents the logic of this program. A smaller program for personal microcomputers for analysis of Fair's United States model is available from Urban Systems Research & Engineering, Inc. Anyone wanting to learn how to use large macroeconomic models, including researchers, graduate students, economic forecasters, and people in business and government both in the United States and abroad, will find this an essential guidebook.

Download or read book Portfolio Risk Analysis written by Gregory Connor and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-03-15 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Portfolio risk forecasting has been and continues to be an active research field for both academics and practitioners. Almost all institutional investment management firms use quantitative models for their portfolio forecasting, and researchers have explored models' econometric foundations, relative performance, and implications for capital market behavior and asset pricing equilibrium. Portfolio Risk Analysis provides an insightful and thorough overview of financial risk modeling, with an emphasis on practical applications, empirical reality, and historical perspective. Beginning with mean-variance analysis and the capital asset pricing model, the authors give a comprehensive and detailed account of factor models, which are the key to successful risk analysis in every economic climate. Topics range from the relative merits of fundamental, statistical, and macroeconomic models, to GARCH and other time series models, to the properties of the VIX volatility index. The book covers both mainstream and alternative asset classes, and includes in-depth treatments of model integration and evaluation. Credit and liquidity risk and the uncertainty of extreme events are examined in an intuitive and rigorous way. An extensive literature review accompanies each topic. The authors complement basic modeling techniques with references to applications, empirical studies, and advanced mathematical texts. This book is essential for financial practitioners, researchers, scholars, and students who want to understand the nature of financial markets or work toward improving them.

Download or read book Income Distribution in Macroeconomic Models written by Giuseppe Bertola and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2014-09-28 with total page 439 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book looks at the distribution of income and wealth and the effects that this has on the macroeconomy, and vice versa. Is a more equal distribution of income beneficial or harmful for macroeconomic growth, and how does the distribution of wealth evolve in a market economy? Taking stock of results and methods developed in the context of the 1990s revival of growth theory, the authors focus on capital accumulation and long-run growth. They show how rigorous, optimization-based technical tools can be applied, beyond the representative-agent framework of analysis, to account for realistic market imperfections and for political-economic interactions. The treatment is thorough, yet accessible to students and nonspecialist economists, and it offers specialist readers a wide-ranging and innovative treatment of an increasingly important research field. The book follows a single analytical thread through a series of different growth models, allowing readers to appreciate their structure and crucial assumptions. This is particularly useful at a time when the literature on income distribution and growth has developed quickly and in several different directions, becoming difficult to overview.

Download or read book Models for Dynamic Macroeconomics written by Fabio-Cesare Bagliano and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2004-02-05 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dynamic Approaches to Macroeconomics provides the advanced student with key methodological tools for the dynamic analysis of a core selection of macroeconomic phenomena, including consumption and investment choices, employment and unemployment outcomes, and economic growth. The technical treatment of these tools will enable the student to handle current journal literature, while not assuming any particular familiarity with advanced analytical tools or mathematical notions. As these tools are introduced, they are related to particular applications to illustrate their use. Chapters are linked by various formal and substantive threads. Discrete-time optimization under uncertainty, introduced in Chapter 1, is motivated and discussed by applications to consumption theory, with particular attention to empirical implementation. Chapter 2 focuses on continuous-time optimization techniques, and discusses the relevant insights in the context of partial-equilibrium investment models. Chapter 3 revisits many of the previous chapters' formal derivations with applications to dynamic labour demand, in comparison to optimal investment models, and characterizes labor market equilibrium when not only individual firms' labor demand, but also individual labor supply by workers, is subject to adjustment costs. Chapter 4 proposes broader applications of methods introduced in the previous chapters and studies continuous-time equilibrium dynamics of representative agent economies, featuring both consumption and investment choices, with applications to long-run growth frameworks of analysis. Chapter 5 illustrates the role of decentralized trading in determining aggregate equilibria, and characterizes aggregate labor market dynamics in the presence of frictional unemployment. Chapters 4 and 5 pay particular attention to strategic interactions and externalities: even when each agent correctly solves his or her individual dynamic problem, modern microfounded macroeconomic models recognize that macroeconomic equilibrium need not have unambiguously desirable properties. By bridging the gap between undergraduate economics and modern microfounded macroeconomic research, this book will be of interest to graduate students in economics, and as a technical reference for economic researchers.

Download or read book Macroeconomic Modelling in a Changing World written by Christopher Allen and published by . This book was released on 1997-02-12 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomic Modelling in a Changing World Towards a Common Approach Edited by Chris Allen and Stephen Hall Practical economic model building has changed enormously over the last twenty years. Econometrics has become much more sophisticated with the introduction of cointegration and non-stationary time series analysis. The use of economic theory in the form of complex non-linear cross equation restrictions is now much more widespread and the explicit modelling of expectations and credibility effects is more satisfactory. This has meant that the old style macroeconomic models which were complex by virtue of their size alone have been replaced by a generation of new models which embody complex theory and estimation to provide more superior forecasting and policy tools. Macroeconomic Modelling in a Changing World outlines the modelling approach which has been adopted at the Centre for Economic Forecasting at the London Business School, one of the world’s leading research institutes into macroeconomic modelling, in building its own models. Using explicit examples and illustrations, the authors examine the latest state-of-the-art models, and answer questions such as: How are modern econometrics used by model builders? How should we deal with structural change? How should expectations be modelled? How are models used in practice? Economics

Download or read book Macroeconomic Modeling And Policy Analysis For Less Developed Countries written by Mohammed F Khayum and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-03-07 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an overview of macroeconometric modeling for less developed countries, a description of the structure and performance of Guyana's economy, an empirical testing of the model using annual data for Guyana, and a simulation approach to policy evaluation.

Download or read book Models for Dynamic Macroeconomics written by Fabio C. Bagliano and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2004 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Models for Dynamic Microeconomics provides the advanced student with key methodological tools for the dynamic analysis of a core selection of macroeconomic phenomena, including consumption and investment choices, employment and unemployment outcomes, and economic growth. The technical treatment of these tools will enable the student to handle current journal literature, while not assuming any particular familiarity with advanced analytical tools or mathematical notions. As these tools are introduced, they are related to particular applications to illustrate their use. Chapters are linked by various formal and substantive threads. Discrete-time optimization under uncertainty, introduced in Chapter 1, is motivated and discussed by applications to consumption theory, with particular attention to empirical implementation. Chapter 2 focuses on continuous-time optimization techniques, and discusses the relevant insights in the context of partial-equilibrium investment models. Chapter 3 revisits many of the previous chapters' formal derivations with applications to dynamic labour demand, in comparison to optimal investment models, and characterizes labor market equilibrium when not only individual firms' labor demand, but also individual labor supply by workers, is subject to adjustment costs. Chapter 4 proposes broader applications of methods introduced in the previous chapters and studies continuous-time equilibrium dynamics of representative agent economies, featuring both consumption and investment choices, with applications to long-run growth frameworks of analysis. Chapter 5 illustrates the role of decentralized trading in determining aggregate equilibria, and characterizes aggregate labor market dynamics in the presence of frictional unemployment. Chapters 4 and 5 pay particular attention to strategic interactions and externalities: even when each agent correctly solves his or her individual dynamic problem, modern microfounded macroeconomic models recognize that macroeconomic equilibrium need not have unambiguously desirable properties. By bridging the gap between undergraduate economics and modern microfounded macroeconomic research, this book will be of interest to graduate students in economics, and as a technical reference for economic researchers.

Download or read book A Macroeconometric Framework for Credit Portfolio Modelling in South Africa written by Albertus Hendrik De Wet and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Driven by intense competition for market share, banks across the globe have allowed credit portfolios to become less diversified (across all dimensions ;? country, industry, sector and size) and have become willing to accept lesser quality assets on their books. As a result, even well capitalised banks could come under severe solvency pressure when global economic conditions turn. The banking industry has realised the need for more sophisticated loan origination and credit and capital management practices. To this end the reforms introduced by the Bank of International Settlement through the New Basel Accord (Basel II) aims to include exposure specific credit risk characteristics within the regulatory capital requirement framework, but is still not able to allow diversification and concentration risk to be fully recognised within the credit portfolio. In order to enhance earnings and liquidity profiles, active credit portfolio management is becoming a central part of capital management within the banking industry. If any risk mitigation or value enhancing activity is to be pursued, a credit portfolio manager must be able to identify the interdependencies between exposures in a portfolio and relate macroeconomic credit risk into tangible portfolio effects. The core principle for addressing practical questions in credit portfolio management lies in the ability to link the cyclical or systematic components of firm credit risk with the firm's own idiosyncratic credit risk as well as the systematic credit risk component of every other exposure in the portfolio. Most structural credit portfolio management approaches have opted to represent the general economy or systematic risk by a single risk factor. The systematic component of all exposures, the process generating asset values and therefore the default thresholds are homogeneous across all firms. Indeed this Asymptotic Single Risk Factor (ASRF) model has been the foundation for Basel II. However the ASRF approach does not allow for enough flexibility when answering real life questions. Commercially available credit portfolio models have made an effort to address this issue by introducing more systematic factors in the asset-value-generating process. From a practitioner's point of view, however, these models are often a black-box which allows little economic meaning or inference to be attributed to systematic factors. The methodology proposed by Pesaran, Schuermann, Treutler and Weiner (PSTW) (2006) has made a significant advance in credit risk modelling because it avoids the usage of proprietary balance sheet and distance to default data, instead focussing on credit ratings which are more freely available. Linking an adjusted structural default model to a structural global econometric (GVAR) model means that credit risk analysis and portfolio management can be done by using a conditional loss distribution estimation and simulation process. The GVAR model used in PSTW (2006) comprises a total of 25 countries and accounts for 80 per cent of world production, but does not include an African component. This thesis proposes a country-specific macroeconometric risk driver engine which is compatible with and could feed into the GVAR model and framework using vector error-correcting (VECM) techniques. This allows conditional loss estimation of a South African-specific credit portfolio and opens the door for credit portfolio modelling on a global scale because such a model can easily be linked into the GVAR model. By using firm-specific asset value functions, the outcomes from the macroeconometric vector error-correcting model (VECM) is translated into default probabilities and used to perform credit risk analysis and scenario analysis on a fictitious portfolio of corporate bank loans within the South African economy. These results can be used in credit portfolio management or standalone credit risk analysis which means that practical credit portfolio management and value enhancing applications can be performed.

Download or read book Principles of Macroeconometric Modeling written by L.R. Klein and published by North Holland. This book was released on 1999-09-21 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At a level suitable for graduate or advanced undergraduates in economics, explains the principles of constructing dynamic macroeconometric models and their use in economic analyses and forecasting. The econometric methodology described is limited to specific applications of time series analysis. The treatment is updated from the 1983 Lectures in Econometrics to account for the end of the Cold War, which raises questions of economic transition in eastern Europe, and the emergence of information technology that has qualitatively changed the speed and breadth of data flows. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

Download or read book Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works written by Ray C. FAIR and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2009-06-30 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomics tries to describe and explain the economywide movement of prices, output, and unemployment. The field has been sharply divided among various schools, including Keynesian, monetarist, new classical, and others. It has also been split between theorists and empiricists. Ray Fair is a resolute empiricist, developing and refining methods for testing theories and models. The field cannot advance without the discipline of testing how well the models approximate the data. Using a multicountry econometric model, he examines several important questions, including what causes inflation, how monetary authorities behave and what are their stabilization limits, how large is the wealth effect on aggregate consumption, whether European monetary policy has been too restrictive, and how large are the stabilization costs to Europe of adopting the euro. He finds, among other things, little evidence for the rational expectations hypothesis and for the so-called non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) hypothesis. He also shows that the U.S. economy in the last half of the 1990s was not a new age economy.

Download or read book Challenges for Macroeconomic Modelling written by W. Driehuis and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2014-06-28 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects the revised and edited proceedings of the conference held in honour of the 50th anniversary of Professor Tinbergen's first macroeconomic policy model. Written by experts both in the field of model building and policy analysis, the contributions provide an invaluable overview of the state of the art and the use of macroeconomic models in our time.