Download or read book Loose Financial Conditions Rising Leverage and Risks to Macro Financial Stability written by Mr. Adolfo Barajas and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-08-20 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After a steady increase following the global financial crisis, private nonfinancial sector leverage rose further during the COVID-19 on the back of easy financial conditions induced by unprecedented policy support. We investigate the empirical relationships between increased leverage, financial conditions, and macro-financial stability in a sample of major advanced and emerging market economies. We find that loose financial conditions contribute to leverage buildups and generate an intertemporal tradeoff: financial stability risk is lessened in the near term but exacerbated in the medium term. The tradeoff is amplified during credit booms, when debt service burdens are particularly high, or when the share of foreign currency debt is high in emerging markets. Selected macroprudential tools can arrest leverage buildups and mitigate the tradeoff.

Download or read book The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability written by Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-27 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We explore empirically how the time-varying allocation of credit across firms with heterogeneous credit quality matters for financial stability outcomes. Using firm-level data for 55 countries over 1991-2016, we show that the riskiness of credit allocation, captured by Greenwood and Hanson (2013)’s ISS indicator, helps predict downside risks to GDP growth and systemic banking crises, two to three years ahead. Our analysis indicates that the riskiness of credit allocation is both a measure of corporate vulnerability and of investor sentiment. Economic forecasters wrongly predict a positive association between the riskiness of credit allocation and future growth, suggesting a flawed expectations process.

Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report April 2018 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-18 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The April 2018 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) finds that short-term risks to financial stability have increased somewhat since the previous GFSR. Medium-term risks are still elevated as financial vulnerabilities, which have built up during the years of accommodative policies, could mean a bumpy road ahead and put growth at risk. This GFSR also examines the short- and medium-term implications for downside risks to growth and financial stability of the riskiness of corporate credit allocation. It documents the cyclical nature of the riskiness of corporate credit allocation at the global and country levels and its sensitivity to financial conditions, lending standards, and policy and institutional settings. Another chapter analyzes whether and how house prices move in tandem across countries and major cities around the world—that is, global house price synchronicity.

Download or read book Canada written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-06-24 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Financial System Stability Assessment paper discusses that Canada has enjoyed favorable macroeconomic outcomes over the past decades, and its vibrant financial system continues to grow robustly. However, macrofinancial vulnerabilities—notably, elevated household debt and housing market imbalances—remain substantial, posing financial stability concerns. Various parts of the financial system are directly exposed to the housing market and/or linked through housing finance. The financial system would be able to manage severe macrofinancial shocks. Major deposit-taking institutions would remain resilient, but mortgage insurers would need additional capital in a severe adverse scenario. Housing finance is broadly resilient, notwithstanding some weaknesses in the small non-prime mortgage lending segment. Although banks’ overall capital buffers are adequate, additional required capital for mortgage exposures, along with measures to increase risk-based differentiation in mortgage pricing, would be desirable. This would help ensure adequate through-the cycle buffers, improve mortgage risk-pricing, and limit procyclical effects induced by housing market corrections.

Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report April 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Global Financial Stability Report examines current risks facing the global financial system and policy actions that may mitigate these. It analyzes the key challenges facing financial and nonfinancial firms as they continue to repair their balance sheets. Chapter 2 takes a closer look at whether sovereign credit default swaps markets are good indicators of sovereign credit risk. Chapter 3 examines unconventional monetary policy in some depth, including the policies pursued by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report October 2017 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-10-11 with total page 139 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The October 2017 Global Financial Stability Report finds that the global financial system continues to strengthen in response to extraordinary policy support, regulatory enhancements, and the cyclical upturn in growth. It also includes a chapter that examines the short- and medium-term implications for economic growth and financial stability of the past decades’ rise in household debt. It documents large differences in household debt-to-GDP ratios across countries but a common increasing trajectory that was moderated but not reversed by the global financial crisis. Another chapter develops a new macroeconomic measure of financial stability by linking financial conditions to the probability distribution of future GDP growth and applies it to a set of 20 major advanced and emerging market economies. The chapter shows that changes in financial conditions shift the whole distribution of future GDP growth.

Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report April 2012 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-04-18 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The April 2012 Global Financial Stability Report assesses changes in risks to financial stability over the past six months, focusing on sovereign vulnerabilities, risks stemming from private sector deleveraging, and assessing the continued resilience of emerging markets. The report probes the implications of recent reforms in the financial system for market perception of safe assets, and investigates the growing public and private costs of increased longevity risk from aging populations.

Download or read book Macroprudential Regulatory Policies The New Road To Financial Stability written by Douglas D Evanoff and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2011-11-02 with total page 421 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a collection of papers presented in the conference held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in September 2010, that examines the role of macroprudential regulation in the financial industry. Shocked by the experience of the last few years, many argue that the more traditional microprudential regulatory tools are inadequate to create a safe and stable financial system. The microprudential paradigm relies on the presumption that the financial system as a whole can be made safe by ensuring individual financial institutions are made safe. This ignores interconnections and externalities, whereby the actions of one financial institution or events in financial markets can lead to spillover effects that adversely affect general market conditions, other financial institutions, and ultimately the economy as a whole. Instead, it is argued, there is a need for both microprudential approaches to regulate individual institutions and macroprudential approaches to manage the overall financial system risks.Conference participants discussed macroprudential regulation and related issues, including: What are the theoretical motivations for macroprudential regulation? How would it interact with other regulatory and macroeconomic policies, especially monetary policy? What would be the specific macroprudential tools? Who should have control over the macroprudential tools? How should a macroprudential regulator be structured? Where should it be housed? How can macroprudential policies be structured across national borders? What role, if any, can market discipline play in supporting macroprudential objectives?Concentrating on public policy issues, the conference featured keynote addresses by influential past and present public policy figures including: Paul Volcker, Chairman of the US President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board and former Chairman of the Federal Reserve System; Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa, Chairman, Promontory Financial Group Europe and Former Chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision; Jaime Caruana, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements and Former Chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision; and Charles Taylor, Director of the Pew Charitable Trust Financial Reform Project and Former Executive Director of the Group of Thirty.

Download or read book Capital Flows and Financial Stability written by D. Filiz Unsal and published by . This book was released on 2011-08-01 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The resumption of capital flows to emerging market economies since mid 2009 has posed two sets of interrelated challenges for policymakers: (i) to prevent capital flows from exacerbating overheating pressures and consequent inflation, and (ii) to minimize the risk that prolonged periods of easy financing conditions will undermine financial stability. While conventional monetary policy maintains its role in counteracting the former, there are doubts that it is sufficient to guard against the risks of financial instability. In this context, there have been increased calls for the development of macroprudential measures, with an explicit focus on systemwide financial risks. Against this background, this paper analyses the interplay between monetary policy and macroprudential regulations in an open economy DSGE model with nominal and real frictions. The key result is that macroprudential measures can usefully complement monetary policy. Even under the "optimal policy," which calls for a rather aggressive monetary policy reaction to inflation, introducing macroprudential measures is found to be welfare improving. Broad macroprudential measures are shown to be more effective than those that discriminate against foreign liabilities (prudential capital controls). However, these measures are not a substitute for an appropriate moneraty policy reaction. Moreover, macroprudential measures are less useful in helping economic stability under a technology shock.

Download or read book Ms Muffet the Spider gram and the Web of Macro Financial Linkages written by Ricardo Cervantes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-06-10 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global financial crisis has underscored the importance of understanding macro-financial developments and spillovers in an increasingly interconnected and intricate system. At the IMF, staff is focusing on the linkages between the real economy and the financial sector, as well as the inter-relationships between global and individual-country risks. The Country Financial Stability Map provides an empirical framework for explicitly linking these various aspects of the IMF’s surveillance of its member countries. It identifies potential sources of macro-financial risks particular to a country and also enables an assessment of these risks in a global context through comparisons with the corresponding Global Financial Stability Map from the Global Financial Stability Report. The authors have developed an Excel-based tool (“Ms. Muffet”) to facilitate this analysis, which may be replicated by external users with access to the necessary databases, using the accompanying template.

Download or read book Growth at Risk Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance written by Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-02-21 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the evolution of risks to economic activity over time. By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive action. This paper offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis and draws lessons from country case studies. It also discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF’s bilateral surveillance efforts.

Download or read book Dealing with the Challenges of Macro Financial Linkages in Emerging Markets written by Otaviano Canuto and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2013-10-29 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals with the challenges of macro financial linkages in the emerging markets.

Download or read book Global Banks Dollar Funding A Source of Financial Vulnerability written by Mr.Adolfo Barajas and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-07-03 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Leading up to the global financial crisis, US dollar activity by global banks headquartered outside the United States played a crucial role in transmitting shocks originating in funding markets. Although post-crisis regulation has improved banking systems’ resilience, US dollar funding remains a global vulnerability, as evidenced by strains that reemerged in March 2020 in the midst of the COVID-19 crisis. We show that shocks to US dollar funding costs lead to financial stress in the home economies of these global non-US banks, and to spillovers to borrowers, especially emerging economies. US dollar funding vulnerability amplifies these negative effects, while some policy-related factors act as mitigators, such as swap line arrangements between central banks and international reserve holdings. Thus, these vulnerabilities should be monitored and, to the extent possible, controlled.

Download or read book Experiences with Macroprudential Policy Five Case Studies written by Mr.Salim M. Darbar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-19 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents case studies of macroprudential policy in five jurisdictions (Hong Kong SAR, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore, and Sweden). The case studies describe the institutional framework, its evolution, the use of macroprudential tools, and the circumstances under which the tools have been used. The paper shows how macroprudential policy is conducted under a heterogeneous set of institutional frameworks. In all cases macroprudential tools have been used to address risks in the housing market. In addition, some of them have moved to enhance the resilience of their banks to more general cyclical and structural risks.

Download or read book Macroprudential Policy written by R. Barwell and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-05-07 with total page 544 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The financial crisis of 2008 is probably the single most important economic event in post-war history. Macroprudential policy is the response to that crisis – a determined attempt to stabilize the financial system. This book explains why it is necessary, who will be responsible for executing this responsibility and how they will go about doing it.

Download or read book Macroprudential Policy Effects written by Nina Biljanovska and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-03-31 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global financial crisis (GFC) underscored the need for additional policy tools to safeguard financial stability and ultimately macroeconomic stability. Systemic financial vulnerabilities had developed under a seemingly tranquil macroeconomic surface of low inflation and small output gaps. This challenged the precrisis view that achieving these traditional policy targets was a sufficient condition for macroeconomic stability. Thus, new tools had to be deployed to target specific financial vulnerabilities and to build buffers to cushion adverse aggregate shocks, while allowing traditional policy levers, including monetary and microprudential policies to focus on their traditional roles. Macroprudential policy measures emerged as the solution to this gap. Some of these measures had been used before the GFC (mostly in emerging markets). But it was only after the crisis that they were more widely adopted, and the toolkit expanded. This spurred a growing body of empirical research on the effects and potential shortfalls of these measures, with a further deepening of this knowledge gaining importance as policymakers confront increased financial stability risks in the post-pandemic world. Recognizing that there still is much to learn, this paper takes stock of our expanding understanding about the effects (and side effects) of macroprudential measures by focusing on these questions: What have we learned about the effects of macroprudential policy in containing the buildup of vulnerabilities? What do we know about the effects on economic activity and resilience? How do policy effects vary with conditions and over time? How important are leakages and circumvention? How do the effects on credit depend on other policies?

Download or read book Rethinking Macro Policy II written by Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-04-15 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note explores how the economic thinking about macroeconomic management has evolved since the crisis began. It discusses developments in monetary policy, including unconventional measures; the challenges associated with increased public debt; and the policy potential, risks, and institutional challenges associated with new macroprudential measures. Rationale: The note contributes to the ongoing debate on several aspects of macroeconomic policy. It follows up on the earlier “Rethinking” paper, refining the analysis in light of the events of the past two years. Given the relatively fluid state of the debate (e.g., recent challenges to central bank independence), it is useful to highlight that while many of the tenets of the pre-crisis consensus have been challenged, others (such as the desirability of central bank independence) remain valid.