Download or read book The Future of Migration to Europe written by matteo villa and published by Ledizioni. This book was released on 2020-05-14 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Even as the 2013-2017 "migration crisis" is increasingly in the past, EU countries still struggle to come up with alternative solutions to foster safe, orderly, and regular migration pathways, Europeans continue to look in the rear-view mirror. This Report is an attempt to reverse the perspective, by taking a glimpse into the future of migration to Europe. What are the structural trends underlying migration flows to Europe, and how are they going to change over the next two decades? How does migration interact with specific policy fields, such as development, border management, and integration? And what are the policies and best practicies to manage migration in a more coherent and evidence-based way?

Download or read book The Futures of Europe written by Commission of the European Communities and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1976-11-04 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1976, this book is based on material produced by members of the Europe Plus Thirty project.

Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Download or read book Looking Ahead written by and published by . This book was released on 1961 with total page 746 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Download or read book Foreign Publications Accessions List written by and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 990 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book European Yearbook Annuaire Europeen 1970 written by Council of Europe/Conseil de L'Europe and published by Martinus Nijhoff Publishers. This book was released on 1972-07-01 with total page 1014 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The "European Yearbook promotes the scientific study of nineteen European supranational organisations and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Each volume contains a detailed survey of the history, structure and yearly activities of each organisation and an up-to-date chart providing a clear overview of the member states of each organisation. Each volume contains a comprehensive bibliography covering the year's relevant publications.

Download or read book Annuaire Europ en European Yearbook written by Council of Europe Staff and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-01 with total page 1002 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The "European Yearbook promotes the scientific study of nineteen European supranational organisations and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Each volume contains a detailed survey of the history, structure and yearly activities of each organisation and an up-to-date chart providing a clear overview of the member states of each organisation. Each volume contains a comprehensive bibliography covering the year's relevant publications.

Download or read book Obesity and the Economics of Prevention Fit not Fat written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2010-09-23 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the scale and characteristics of the obesity epidemic, the respective roles and influence of market forces and governments, and the impact of interventions.

Download or read book National Goals Symposium written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 1640 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Use of Long range Forecasting Techniques and Projections for the Definition of a European Regional Planning Policy written by International Association Futuribles and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Situation and Outlook Series written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book National Goals Symposium written by United States. Congress. Senate. Interior and Insular Affairs and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 846 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Perspectives for All European Economic Co Operation written by János Szita and published by BRILL. This book was released on 1977 with total page 382 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monographic study of the prospects for regional cooperation, and economic integration in Europe between socialist countries and capitalist countries - stresses the mutual benefits of economic relations between countries with different social systems and focusses on the approach to the problem of CMEA countries, examines institutional frameworks and legal aspects, and covers trade relations, monetary relations, financial aspects, cooperation in the industrial sector, agricultural sector, transport, etc. Bibliography pp. 367 to 370 and statistical tables.

Download or read book Selected Water Resources Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 898 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book East European Economies written by and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 1646 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: