Download or read book Liquidity Expected Stock Return and Variation of Liquidity Premium Over Uncertainty Period written by Prapasri Chatkunlawat and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Uncertainty Elasticity of Liquidity and the Associated Premium of China s A Shares written by Ping-Wen Sun and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate what determines a stock's uncertainty elasticity of liquidity (UEL: the change in the individual stock's liquidity given the change in the market return volatility) and whether UEL is priced for China's A-shares. We find stocks with higher UEL are associated with lower share price, smaller market capitalization, higher illiquidity ratio, lower institutional ownership, and fewer shareholders. Furthermore, those stocks have higher market risk and liquidity risk according to Acharya and Pedersen (2005)'s liquidity capital asset pricing model. From May 2004 to April 2017, our results show that the highest UEL equally-weighted decile portfolio significantly outperforms the lowest UEL equally-weighted decile portfolio by 1.19% per month and the risk adjusted UEL premium by the 6-factor (Fama and French (2015) five factor plus a momentum factor) model remains significant at 0.28% per month. Moreover, we find the UEL premium matters more for illiquid stocks with less investor attention. Finally, we find UEL fails to subsume the explanatory power of liquidity risk on cross-sectional stock returns and liquidity commonality is the most important dimension of liquidity risk for China's A-shares.
Download or read book Information Uncertainty and the Pricing of Liquidity written by Wenjin Kang and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study shows that, to obtain a precise measure of the liquidity premium in the stock market, it is important to recognize the influence of information uncertainty on the pricing of liquidity. Information uncertainty, which is positively correlated with stock illiquidity but negatively priced in the stock market, obscures the estimation of the liquidity premium. After controlling for its influence, we find that the liquidity premium is statistically significant and economically important in the U.S. stock market. Moreover, the risk-adjusted liquidity premium remains significant in both the earlier and more recent sub-sample periods. Our study addresses the recent debate about whether liquidity is still priced in recent decades, given the significant improvement in the trading technology and increase of the trading volume during this period.
Download or read book Liquidity and Asset Prices written by Yakov Amihud and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2006 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Liquidity and Asset Prices reviews the literature that studies the relationship between liquidity and asset prices. The authors review the theoretical literature that predicts how liquidity affects a security's required return and discuss the empirical connection between the two. Liquidity and Asset Prices surveys the theory of liquidity-based asset pricing followed by the empirical evidence. The theory section proceeds from basic models with exogenous holding periods to those that incorporate additional elements of risk and endogenous holding periods. The empirical section reviews the evidence on the liquidity premium for stocks, bonds, and other financial assets.
Download or read book Uncertainty Elasticity of Liquidity and Expected Stock Returns in China written by Ping-Wen Sun and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the uncertainty elasticity of liquidity (UEL: percentage change in the individual stock's liquidity given percentage change in the market volatility) and its influences on expected stock returns in the Chinese stock market from 2002 to 2014. We find that stocks of firms with lower share price, smaller market capitalization, higher book to market ratio, higher past year return, higher illiquidity ratio, higher non-tradable percentage, and fewer analysts following have higher UEL. The factor model analysis shows that the highest UEL decile portfolio monthly earns 0.36% more than the lowest UEL decile portfolio and have higher factor loadings on SMB, RMW, and CMA of the Fama and French five factor model. Furthermore, firm-level analysis shows that UEL does not have additional explanation power on expected stock returns after controlling for the liquidity risk. Finally, on average, stocks' UEL is higher when the stock market return is lower.
Download or read book The Volatility of Liquidity and Expected Stock Returns written by Ferhat Akbas and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The pricing of total liquidity risk is studied in the cross-section of stock returns. The study suggests that there is a positive relation between total volatility of liquidity and expected returns. Our measure of liquidity is based on Amihud (2002) and its volatility is measured using daily data. Furthermore, we document that total volatility of liquidity is priced in the presence of systematic liquidity risk: the covariance of stock returns with aggregate liquidity, the covariance of stock liquidity with aggregate liquidity, and the covariance of stock liquidity with the market return. The separate pricing of total volatility of liquidity indicates that idiosyncratic liquidity risk is important in the cross section of returns. This result is puzzling in light of Acharya and Pedersen (2005) who develop a model in which only systematic liquidity risk affects returns. The positive correlation between the volatility of liquidity and expected returns suggests that risk averse investors require a risk premium for holding stocks that have high variation in liquidity. Higher variation in liquidity implies that a stock may become illiquid with higher probability at a time when it is traded. This is important for investors who face an immediate liquidity need and are not able to wait for periods of high liquidity to sell. The electronic version of this dissertation is accessible from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/150946
Download or read book Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns written by Ľuboš Pástor and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study investigates whether market-wide liquidity is a state variable important for asset pricing. We find that expected stock returns are related cross-sectionally to the sensitivities of returns to fluctuations in aggregate liquidity. Our monthly liquidity measure, an average of individual-stock measures estimated with daily data, relies on the principle that order flow induces greater return reversals when liquidity is lower. Over a 34-year period, the average return on stocks with high sensitivities to liquidity exceeds that for stocks with low sensitivities by 7.5% annually, adjusted for exposures to the market return as well as size, value, and momentum factors.
Download or read book Liquidity and Expected Returns written by Geert Bekaert and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Given the cross-sectional and temporal variation in their liquidity, emerging equity markets provide an ideal setting to examine the impact of liquidity on expected returns. Our main liquidity measure is a transformation of the proportion of zero daily firm returns, averaged over the month. We find that our liquidity measures significantly predict future returns, whereas alternative measures such as turnover do not. Consistent with liquidity being a priced factor, unexpected liquidity shocks are positively correlated with contemporaneous return shocks and negatively correlated with shocks to the dividend yield. We consider a simple asset pricing model with liquidity and the market portfolio as risk factors and transaction costs that are proportional to liquidity. The model differentiates between integrated and segmented countries and periods. Our results suggest that local market liquidity is an important driver of expected returns in emerging markets, and that the liberalization process has not eliminated its impact"--National Bureau of Economic Research web.
Download or read book The Equity Risk Premium written by William N. Goetzmann and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2006-11-16 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What is the return to investing in the stock market? Can we predict future stock market returns? How have equities performed over the last two centuries? The authors in this volume are among the leading researchers in the study of these questions. This book draws upon their research on the stock market over the past two dozen years. It contains their major research articles on the equity risk premium and new contributions on measuring, forecasting, and timing stock market returns, together with new interpretive essays that explore critical issues and new research on the topic of stock market investing. This book is aimed at all readers interested in understanding the empirical basis for the equity risk premium. Through the analysis and interpretation of two scholars whose research contributions have been key factors in the modern debate over stock market perfomance, this volume engages the reader in many of the key issues of importance to investors. How large is the premium? Is history a reliable guide to predict future equity returns? Does the equity and cash flows of the market? Are global equity markets different from those in the United States? Do emerging markets offer higher or lower equity risk premia? The authors use the historical performance of the world's stock markets to address these issues.
Download or read book Three Essays on Liquidity Shocks and Their Implication for Asset Pricing and Valuation Models written by Nardos M. Beyene and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The main objective of my three essays is to incorporate liquidity shocks and the linkages between the liquidity condition of financial markets into asset pricing and valuation models. The first essay focuses on the liquidity adjusted capital asset pricing model, while the second and the third essays examine the popular asset valuation model called the Fed model. The first essay investigates the pricing of the commonality risk in the U.S. stock market by using a more comprehensive market illiquidity measure that can reflect the liquidity condition of different asset markets. This measure is given by the yield difference between commercial paper and treasury bill. In addition, consistent with the definition of commonality risk, I form portfolios based on the sensitivity of each stock's illiquidity to the market-wide illiquidity. Using monthly data from January 1997 to December 2016 and the conditional version of the Liquidity-adjusted Capital Asset Pricing Model (LCAPM) estimated by the Dynamic Conditional Correlation approach, I find a significant commonality risk premium of 0.022% and 0.014% per year for 12-month and 24-month holding periods, respectively. This premium estimate is significantly higher than those found using the market illiquidity measure and estimation procedures from previous studies. These findings provide evidence that a security's easiness in terms of tradability at times of liquidity dry up is extremely important. It is also higher than the excess return associated with other forms of liquidity risk. In addition, the paper finds a variation in the estimated commonality risk premium over time, with values being higher during periods of market turmoil. Moreover, estimating the LCAPM with the yield difference between commercial paper and treasury bill as a measure of market illiquidity performs better in predicting returns for the low commonality risk portfolios. The second essay examines the inflation illusion hypothesis in explaining the high correlation between government bond yield and stock yield as implied by the Fed model. According to the inflation illusion hypothesis, there is mis-pricing in the stock market due to the failure of investors to adjust their cash flow expectation to inflation. This led to a co-movement in stock yield and government bond yield. I use the Gordon Growth model to determine the mis-pricing component in the stock market. In the next step, the correlation between bond yield and stock yield is estimated using the Asymmetric Generalized Dynamic Conditional Correlation (AG-DCC) model. Finally, I regress this correlation on mis-pricing and two other control variables, GDP and inflation. I use monthly data from January 1983 to December 2016. Consistent with the Fed model, the paper finds a significant positive correlation between the yield on government bonds and stock yield, with an average correlation of 0.942 - 0.997. However, in contrast to the inflation illusion hypothesis, mis-pricing in the stock market has an insignificant impact on this correlation. The third essay provides liquidity shocks contagion between the stock market and the corporate bond market as the driving force behind the high correlation between the yield on stocks and the yield on government bonds as implied by the Fed model. The idea is that when liquidity drops in the stock market, firms' credit risk rises because the deterioration in the liquidity of equities traded in the stock market increases the firms' default probability. Consequently, investors' preferences shift away from corporate bonds to government bonds. Higher demand for government bonds keeps their yield low, leading to a co-movement of government bond yield and stock yield. In order to test this liquidity-based explanation, the paper first examines the interdependence between liquidity in the stock and corporate bond markets using the Markov switching model, and a time series non-parametric technique called the Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM). In order to see the response of government bond yield and stock yield to liquidity shocks in the stock market, the study implements an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Using monthly data from January 1997 to December 2016, the paper presents strong evidence of liquidity shocks transmission form the stock market to the corporate bond market. Furthermore, liquidity shocks in the stock market are found to have a significant impact on the stock yield. These findings support the illiquidity contagion explanation provided in this paper.
Download or read book Liquidity Premium and Investment Horizon written by Barend Christiaan Vorster and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Liquidity is a measure of the ease with which an asset can be converted into cash. In a perfectly liquid market, conversion is instantaneous and does not incur costs. Amihud and Mendelson (1986:224) proposed that illiquidity increases the expected return on an investment (liquidity premium) and simultaneously lengthens the holding period. These two effects are known respectively as the 'spread-return relationship and the clientele effect and have theoretical as well as practical implications. From a theoretical perspective it may help to explain the gap between the capital asset pricing model (which assumes that markets are perfectly liquid) and the associated empirical evidence: which thus far has been rather poor. From a practical perspective, liquidity will influence stakeholders' decisions and market competitiveness (Amihud & Mendelson, 1991:61-64). The relevant stakeholders are governments, stock exchange regulators, corporations, investors and financial intermediaries. Emerging economies such as the South African economy typically have less liquid markets than the developed world. While this may be attractive for investors looking for higher returns, Amihud and Mendelson (1991:61) are of the opinion that liquid markets are more generally favoured by investors. Constantinides (1986:842-858), also proposes a model for liquidity, but found the liquidity premium to be of lesser importance than that proposed by Amihud and Mendelson (1986:223-231) but also supports the suggestion that investors will favour liquid markets. Although it is by no means a perfect proxy, a security's bid-ask spread has been found to be an attractive and effective measure of liquidity. It has been found to correlate with beta as well as market capitalisation and several other variables commonly used in capital markets research. Because of this correlation the effect of the bid-ask spread cannot be studied in isolation when regression techniques are employed (Ramanathan, 1998:166). This is particularly problematic because empirical evidence for beta, which is arguably the most important independent variable in financial cross sectional relationships, is weak. Beta has to be estimated and so it is not clear if real markets do not support CAPM theory or if beta cannot be estimated with the required accuracy. All of the common independent variables used in empirical capital markets research are correlated to beta, and for this reason it cannot be established if these variables have a real effect or if they are simply serving as a proxy for the difference between the real and the estimated beta. Various strategies have been proposed to increase the accuracy of beta estimation and these are discussed in detail in this research. Successes with these strategies have been mixed. A second problem encountered in the empirical research base relating to the CAPM is that in the theory the cross-sectional relationship is between expected market return (which cannot be observed due to the vast number of real investments beyond those listed on exchanges) and beta, whereas empirical research makes use of actual return on a market proxy and beta. In order for the actual return to approach the expected return, empirical studies have to be conducted over extended periods. Accurate data for such periods are generally lacking and severe macro-economic changes such as wars, may also affect rational economic behaviour. It has to be kept in mind that the entire CAPM theory flows from the simple assumption that investors aim to achieve the highest return per unit of risk, and so a rejection of beta is a rejection of rational investor behaviour. Liquidity however, addresses one of the assumptions of CAPM, namely that markets are perfectly liquid: which obviously is not met in real markets and so CAPM models expanded for liquidity should be a reasonably fundamental starting point for all empirical capital markets research. The current empirical evidence for the spread-return relationship is inconclusive. While some researchers have found a significant relationship, others have questioned the ability of the methodology to differentiate a true relationship from the proxy for errors in the estimated beta problem. Deductions (as explained in section 4.3) that have been made from the research of Marshall and Young (2003:176-186) in particular, provide strong evidence that at least some of the relationship is due to the errors in estimated beta problem. Little empirical work has been done on the clientele effect. Atkins and Dyl (1997:318-321) found a significant relationship between holding period and bid-ask spread, although their approach was somewhat unorthodox in the sense that portfolio formation was not done and the effect of beta was not tested. This study tests empirically both the spread-return relationship and the clientele effect on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange over the period stretching from January 2002 to June 2007. The methodology of Fama and Macbeth (1973:614-617) as well as the aggregated beta of Dimson (1979:203-204) were mainly used, with some modifications as suggested by other researchers. With regard to the spread-return relationship, the findings of this study do not support theoretical expectations. This may be due to the short time period that was used as well as the difficulty in estimating beta. To the contrary, very significant evidence for the clientele effect was found, with little to no influence from market capitalisation and beta, which is as expected. Further investigation into the spread-return relationship is required. If a liquidity premium is not present, foreign investors will favour liquid developed markets above the JSE. This implies that efforts of exchange regulators and the government to decrease illiquidity will lead to foreign portfolio investment inflow into the South African economy.
Download or read book Market Liquidity written by Thierry Foucault and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2023 with total page 531 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The process by which securities are traded is very different from the idealized picture of a frictionless and self-equilibrating market offered by the typical finance textbook. This book offers a more accurate and authoritative take on this process. The book starts from the assumption that not everyone is present at all times simultaneously on the market, and that participants have quite diverse information about the security's fundamentals. As a result, the order flow is a complex mix of information and noise, and a consensus price only emerges gradually over time as the trading process evolves and the participants interpret the actions of other traders. Thus, a security's actual transaction price may deviate from its fundamental value, as it would be assessed by a fully informed set of investors. The book takes these deviations seriously, and explains why and how they emerge in the trading process and are eventually eliminated. The authors draw on a vast body of theoretical insights and empirical findings on security price formation that have come to form a well-defined field within financial economics known as "market microstructure." Focusing on liquidity and price discovery, the book analyzes the tension between the two, pointing out that when price-relevant information reaches the market through trading pressure rather than through a public announcement, liquidity may suffer. It also confronts many striking phenomena in securities markets and uses the analytical tools and empirical methods of market microstructure to understand them. These include issues such as why liquidity changes over time and differs across securities, why large trades move prices up or down, and why these price changes are subsequently reversed, and why we observe temporary deviations from asset fair values"--
Download or read book Time Varying Liquidity Risk and the Cross Section of Stock Returns written by Akiko Watanabe and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies whether stock returns' sensitivities to aggregate liquidity fluctuations and the pricing of liquidity risk vary over time. We find that liquidity betas vary across two distinct states: one with high liquidity betas and the other with low betas. The high liquidity-beta state is short lived and characterized by heavy trade, high volatility, and a wide cross-sectional dispersion in liquidity betas. It also delivers a disproportionately large liquidity risk premium, amounting to more than twice the value premium. Our results are consistent with a model of liquidity risk in which investors face uncertainty about their trading counterparties' preferences.
Download or read book Stock Liquidity Premium With Stochastic Price Impact and Exogeous Trading Strategy written by Szymon Stereńczak and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a model which helps explain the variability of stock liquidity premium. I model liquidity as a time-varying price impact and include both permanent as well as temporary price impact. Liquidity premium is defined as an additional return that stock should yield to compensate an investor for the loss of wealth utility caused by price impact costs. I find that liquidity premium varies with the expected net stock return, return volatility and, to a lesser extent, with the returns on risk-free bonds. I also conclude that the liquidity premium arises mainly as a result of the effect of temporary price impact. The “Per unit liquidity premium” associated with temporary price impact is more than 2 times higher than that associated with the permanent one.
Download or read book Illiquidity Premium and Expected Stock Returns in the UK written by Jiaqi Chen and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study examines the relative importance of liquidity risk for the time-series and cross-section of stock returns in the UK. We propose a simple way to capture the multidimensionality of illiquidity. Our analysis indicates that existing illiquidity measures have considerable asset specific components, which justifies our new approach. Further, we use an alternative test of the Amihud (2002) measure and parametric and non-parametric methods to investigate whether liquidity risk is priced in the UK. We find that the inclusion of the illiquidity factor in the capital asset pricing model plays a significant role in explaining the cross-sectional variation in stock returns, in particular with the Fama-French three-factor model. Further, using Hansen-Jagannathan non-parametric bounds, we find that the illiquidity-augmented capital asset pricing models yield a small distance error, other non-liquidity based models fail to yield economically plausible distance values. Our findings have important implications for managing the liquidity risk of equity portfolios.
Download or read book Liquidity and Volatility written by Itamar Drechsler and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 71 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Liquidity provision is a bet against private information: if private information turns out to be higher than expected, liquidity providers lose. Since information generates volatility, and volatility co-moves across assets, liquidity providers have a negative exposure to aggregate volatility shocks. As aggregate volatility shocks carry a very large premium in option markets, this negative exposure can explain why liquidity provision earns high average returns. We show this by incorporating uncertainty about the amount of private information into an otherwise standard model. We test the model in the cross section of short-term reversals, which mimic the portfolios of liquidity providers. As predicted by the model, reversals have large negative betas to aggregate volatility shocks. These betas explain their average returns with the same risk price as in option markets, and their predictability by VIX in the time series. Volatility risk thus explains the liquidity premium among stocks and why it increases in volatile times. Our results provide a novel view of the risks and returns to liquidity provision.
Download or read book Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns written by Lubos Pastor and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study investigates whether market-wide liquidity is a state variable important for asset pricing. We find that expected stock returns are related cross-sectionally to the sensitivities of returns to fluctuations in aggregate liquidity. Our monthly liquidity measure, an average of individual-stock measures estimated with daily data, relies on the principle that order flow induces greater return reversals when liquidity is lower. Over a 34-year period, the average return on stocks with high sensitivities to liquidity exceeds that for stocks with low sensitivities by 7.5% annually, adjusted for exposures to the market return as well as size, value, and momentum factors.
