Download or read book Likelihood Probability and Knowledge written by International Business Machines Corporation. Research Division and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Enterprise of Knowledge written by Isaac Levi and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1980 with total page 484 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This major work challenges some widely held positions in epistemology - those of Peirce and Popper on the one hand and those of Quine and Kuhn on the other. The author contends that epistemological infallibilism is compatible with his view that knowledge evolves through a process of updating and correcting. Knowledge is regarded as a resource for decision and inquiry, a standard for serious possibility.
Download or read book The Great Mental Models Volume 1 written by Shane Parrish and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2024-10-15 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.
Download or read book Understanding and Calculating the Odds written by Catalin Barboianu and published by INFAROM Publishing. This book was released on 2006 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents not only the mathematical concept of probability, but also its philosophical aspects, the relativity of probability and its applications and even the psychology of probability. All explanations are made in a comprehensible manner and are supported with suggestive examples from nature and daily life, and even with challenging math paradoxes. (Mathematics)
Download or read book Probability and Risk Analysis written by Igor Rychlik and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-10-07 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text presents notions and ideas at the foundations of a statistical treatment of risks. The focus is on statistical applications within the field of engineering risk and safety analysis. Coverage includes Bayesian methods. Such knowledge facilitates the understanding of the influence of random phenomena and gives a deeper understanding of the role of probability in risk analysis. The text is written for students who have studied elementary undergraduate courses in engineering mathematics, perhaps including a minor course in statistics. This book differs from typical textbooks in its verbal approach to many explanations and examples.
Download or read book Understanding Probability written by H. C. Tijms and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2004-08-16 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Like it or not, chance plays a big part in our lives. Every day we face situations where the result is uncertain, and, perhaps without realizing it, we guess about the likelihood of one outcome or another. Fortunately, mastering the concepts of probability can cast new light on situations where randomness and chance appear to rule. In this book, which uses lotteries and casino games to provide the many illustrative examples, the reader can learn about the world of probability. The author demystifies the law of large numbers, betting systems, random walks, the bootstrap, rare events, the central limit theorem, the Bayesian approach and more. Written with wit and clarity, this book can be read easily by anyone who is not put off by a few numbers and some high-school algebra. It is also ideally suited to students of all disciplines taking their first course in probability.
Download or read book A Probabilistic Theory of Pattern Recognition written by Luc Devroye and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-27 with total page 631 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A self-contained and coherent account of probabilistic techniques, covering: distance measures, kernel rules, nearest neighbour rules, Vapnik-Chervonenkis theory, parametric classification, and feature extraction. Each chapter concludes with problems and exercises to further the readers understanding. Both research workers and graduate students will benefit from this wide-ranging and up-to-date account of a fast- moving field.
Download or read book Probability Theory written by E. T. Jaynes and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003-04-10 with total page 764 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Index.
Download or read book Confidence Likelihood Probability written by Tore Schweder and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016-02-24 with total page 521 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first book to develop a methodology of confidence distributions, with a lively mix of theory, illustrations, applications and exercises.
Download or read book Philosophies Puzzles and Paradoxes written by Yudi Pawitan and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2024-03-21 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unlike mathematics, statistics deals with real-world data and involves a higher degree of subjectivity due to the role of interpretation. Interpretation is shaped by context as well as the knowledge, preferences, assumptions and preconceptions of the interpreter, leading to a variety of interpretations of concepts as well as results. Philosophies, Puzzles and Paradoxes: A Statistician’s Search for Truth thoroughly examines the distinct philosophical approaches to statistics – Bayesian, frequentist and likelihood – arising from different interpretations of probability and uncertainty. These differences are highlighted through numerous puzzles and paradoxes and illuminated by extensive discussions of the background philosophy of science. Features: Exploration of the philosophy of knowledge and truth and how they relate to deductive and inductive reasoning, and ultimately scientific and statistical thinking Discussion of the philosophical theories of probability that are wider than the standard Bayesian and frequentist views Exposition and examination of Savage’s axioms as the basis of subjective probability and Bayesian statistics Explanation of likelihood and likelihood-based inference, including the controversy surrounding the likelihood principle Discussion of fiducial probability and its evolution to confidence procedure Introduction of extended and hierarchical likelihood for random parameters, with the recognition of confidence as extended likelihood, leading to epistemic confidence as an objective measure of uncertainty for single events Detailed analyses and new variations of classic paradoxes, such as the Monty Hall puzzle, the paradox of the ravens, the exchange paradox, and more Substantive yet non-technical, catering to readers with only introductory exposure to the theory of probability and statistics This book primarily targets statisticians in general, including both undergraduate and graduate students, as well as researchers interested in the philosophical basis of probability and statistics. It is also suitable for philosophers of science and general readers intrigued by puzzles and paradoxes.
Download or read book Understand Probability written by IntroBooks and published by IntroBooks. This book was released on 2016-02-10 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This booklet will teach you everything you need to know about probability in order to use it to your advantage. We shall start by exploring the very theory of probability and, later on, we shall discuss about the important role it plays in the fields of mathematics and science. Of course, we cannot even begin to think about probability without also considering the statistics and the inductive inferences. Therefore, we shall also approach these matters. Our booklet will take you on a journey that will underline the connection between Logic and Probability. Logic plays a big role in understanding the principles of probability. We are not all great mathematicians, but we have broken down the principles of probability into tiny bits, so that we can be sure all of our readers will benefit from reading our book. Probabilistic models usually imply a generous amount of knowledge of the dialect of science. Which is why, rather than depending on the conventional "hypothesis - confirmation" design, we built up the material in a natural - yet at the same time thorough and scientifically exact way. Besides, while the applications are different and clear, we underline the fundamental ideas and approaches that are generally materialized. Read this guide to uncover the mysteries of probability and learn how to apply them in your line of work, your studies and even your day-to-day activities, in order to get more things done and to fully benefit from your work. ***************************** IntroBooks delivers up to the minute information covering everything on a topic in only one hour of reading. This book is written to give essential information in a straight-to-the-point, easy to read format. We have cut out technical jargon, waffle and unnecessary filler to ensure you get the essential information you need to achieve your goals with confidence.
Download or read book Bayesian Epistemology written by Luc Bovens and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2003 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probabilistic models have much to offer to philosophy. We continually receive information from many sources - our senses, witnesses, scientific instruments - and assess whether to believe it. The authors provide a systematic Bayesian account of these features of reasoning.
Download or read book On the Theory and Methods of Statistical Inference written by Gerald L. Smith and published by . This book was released on 1967 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical inference is the process of intelligently using information from observations and experiments to draw conclusions and make decisions. The class of inference problems includes all the classical statistical problems of point and parameter estimation, regression analysis, and hypothesis testing, as well as the engineering problems of control and filtering. In order that inference problems may be stated in mathematical terms, it is necessary to utilize mathematical of the often intangible entities called knowledge and goodness (or optimality). Probability is the measure utilized for knowledge, and loss functions serve as measures of optimality. The conversion of knowledge and goodness into functional or numerical terms is usually quite subjective and thus to a substantial extent arbitrary. Nevertheless, the conversion is necessary if the language of mathematics is to be employed in the inference logic. The various mathematical methods developed, under different assumptions, for solving inferential problems are unavoidable related since all are (in principle) reducible to a common form. Some of the most fundamental of these -- least squares, minimum variance, and maximum likelihood -- are reviewed to show their interrelationships. The newer developments of sequential analysis and filtering are similarly described. All of these are shown to be special cases of the general theory of Bayesian decision making. The Bayesian decision theory requires the specification of an appropriate loss function. The optimum decision is then defined as that which minimizes the mathematical expectation of this loss. Computation of this expectation requires obtaining the posterior distribution of the unknown state based on prescribed scientific observations. Under restrictive conditions the computations involved in this general decision-making procedure are reducible to relatively simple forms. For application under more general conditions methods of approximation and efficient computational algorithms are presently being developed.
Download or read book The Logical Foundations of Statistical Inference written by Henry E. Kyburg Jr. and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Everyone knows it is easy to lie with statistics. It is important then to be able to tell a statistical lie from a valid statistical inference. It is a relatively widely accepted commonplace that our scientific knowledge is not certain and incorrigible, but merely probable, subject to refinement, modifi cation, and even overthrow. The rankest beginner at a gambling table understands that his decisions must be based on mathematical ex pectations - that is, on utilities weighted by probabilities. It is widely held that the same principles apply almost all the time in the game of life. If we turn to philosophers, or to mathematical statisticians, or to probability theorists for criteria of validity in statistical inference, for the general principles that distinguish well grounded from ill grounded generalizations and laws, or for the interpretation of that probability we must, like the gambler, take as our guide in life, we find disagreement, confusion, and frustration. We might be prepared to find disagreements on a philosophical and theoretical level (although we do not find them in the case of deductive logic) but we do not expect, and we may be surprised to find, that these theoretical disagreements lead to differences in the conclusions that are regarded as 'acceptable' in the practice of science and public affairs, and in the conduct of business.
Download or read book Philosophy of Probability and Statistical Modelling written by Mauricio Suárez and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-01-21 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Element has two main aims. The first one (sections 1-7) is an historically informed review of the philosophy of probability. It describes recent historiography, lays out the distinction between subjective and objective notions, and concludes by applying the historical lessons to the main interpretations of probability. The second aim (sections 8-13) focuses entirely on objective probability, and advances a number of novel theses regarding its role in scientific practice. A distinction is drawn between traditional attempts to interpret chance, and a novel methodological study of its application. A radical form of pluralism is then introduced, advocating a tripartite distinction between propensities, probabilities and frequencies. Finally, a distinction is drawn between two different applications of chance in statistical modelling which, it is argued, vindicates the overall methodological approach. The ensuing conception of objective probability in practice is the 'complex nexus of chance'.
Download or read book Research on Teaching and Learning Probability written by Carmen Batanero and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-07-12 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book summarizes the vast amount of research related to teaching and learning probability that has been conducted for more than 50 years in a variety of disciplines. It begins with a synthesis of the most important probability interpretations throughout history: intuitive, classical, frequentist, subjective, logical propensity and axiomatic views. It discusses their possible applications, philosophical problems, as well as their potential and the level of interest they enjoy at different educational levels. Next, the book describes the main features of probabilistic thinking and reasoning, including the contrast to classical logic, probability language features, the role of intuitions, as well as paradoxes and the relevance of modeling. It presents an analysis of the differences between conditioning and causation, the variability expression in data as a sum of random and causal variations, as well as those of probabilistic versus statistical thinking. This is followed by an analysis of probability’s role and main presence in school curricula and an outline of the central expectations in recent curricular guidelines at the primary, secondary and high school level in several countries. This book classifies and discusses in detail the three different research periods on students’ and people’s intuitions and difficulties concerning probability: early research focused on cognitive development, a period of heuristics and biases programs, and the current period marked by a multitude of foci, approaches and theoretical frameworks.
Download or read book The Doctrine of Chances written by Abraham De Moivre and published by Franklin Classics Trade Press. This book was released on 2018-10-26 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. To ensure a quality reading experience, this work has been proofread and republished using a format that seamlessly blends the original graphical elements with text in an easy-to-read typeface. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
