Download or read book Leveraging Diverse Observations of Atmospheric Composition and Model Based Sensitivity Analysis to Refine Estimates of Air Pollution Emissions and Impacts written by Congmeng Lyu and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 157 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ground-level ozone, which forms photochemically in the atmosphere from precursor emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and volatile organic compounds, is a criteria pollutant that harms human health and public welfare. For a representative summer episode, premature mortality and potential productivity losses (PPLs) of selected crops and trees attributable to ozone exposure have been quantified using ozone fields from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. We applied exposure-response models for the increased risk of premature mortality due to long-term exposure to ozone over a theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and for the reduced accumulation of vegetative biomass for four crop species and eleven tree species using the W126 metric designed to capture impacts on plants. To elucidate which emissions contributed to these disbenefits, we applied adjoint-based sensitivity analysis, which efficiently estimates sensitivities of concentration-based metrics with respect to numerous emissions parameters simultaneously. The adjoint of CMAQ was applied to the continental U.S. to calculate the influence of spatially-resolved ozone precursor emissions on the annual average, domain-wide daily maximum 8-hour average over the TMREL (elevated MDA8), premature mortality attributable to exposure to ozone above the TMREL, and PPLs. These quantities provide the impact in terms of the percent reduction in precursor emissions. Additionally, locations where similar percent reductions in ozone precursor emissions would impact one or more endpoints greater than average have been identified. NOx emissions were found to contribute most to the three metrics. The distinct spatial patterns of emissions influences on public welfare disbenefits as compared to the elevated MDA8 and premature mortality suggest that the current regulatory averaging time motivates different emissions control strategies than those that could most directly protect public welfare.Recently, oil and natural gas (O&NG) production activities in the Denver-Julesburg Basin have expanded rapidly. Associated nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC) emissions contribute to photochemical formation of ground-level ozone and include benzene as well as other hazardous air pollutants. Using positive matrix factorization (PMF) and chemical mass balance (CMB) methods, we estimate how much O&NG activities and other sources contribute to morning NMHC mixing ratios measured from 2013 to mid-2016 at a site in Platteville, CO, in the Denver-Julesburg Basin, and at a contrasting site in downtown Denver. A novel adjoint sensitivity analysis method is then used to estimate corresponding contributions to ozone and ozone-linked mortality in the Denver region. Average 6 - 9 am NMHC mixing ratios in Platteville were seven times higher than those in Denver in 2013 but four times higher in 2016. CMB estimates that O&NG activities contributed to the Platteville (Denver) site an average of 96% (56%) of NMHC on a carbon basis while PMF indicated 92% (33%). Average vehicle-related contributions of NMHC are estimated as 41% by CMB and 53% by PMF in Denver. Estimates of the fractional contribution to potential ozone and ozone-linked mortality from O&NG activities are smaller while those from vehicles are larger than the NMHC contributions. CMB (PMF) indicate that greater than 78% (40%) of annual average benzene in Denver is attributable to vehicle emissions while greater than 75% (67%) of benzene in Platteville is attributable to O&NG activities.The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model calculates the impact of emissions on atmospheric composition, including inorganic aerosols, while considering the transport and reactions of chemical constituents. Adjusting emissions by comparing modeled concentrations with observations is justified when the science processes are well understood as is the case for inorganic species such as ammonia (NH3). The Finite Difference Mass Balance (FDMB) method and four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation leverage differences in simulated and actual observations to revise estimates of emissions with spatial specificity. In this study, we evaluate the capability of a CMAQ-based data assimilation system to improve NH3 emissions, which are relatively uncertain given the diversity of emissions processes in the agricultural sector. To do so, the iterative FDMB and a Python-based four-dimensional variational framework (Py4Dvar) are integrated with CMAQ and its adjoint to constrain NH3 emissions with observations from the satellite-based Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS). Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are conducted with the CrIS observation operator to evaluate the extent to which emissions are expected to be recovered with the hybrid assimilation framework. The OSSEs conducted with the 2007 modeling platform and 2016 CrIS data on a regional domain in Georgia and the OSSEs conducted with the 2017 modeling platform and 2017 CrIS data on the continental U.S. domain result in promising recovery of the true emissions.
Download or read book Arctic Air Pollution written by B. Stonehouse and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-01-11 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Arctic atmospheric pollution is now a major international issue. This volume presents the most authoritative review of this increasingly important subject for an audience of both scientists and administrators concerned with worldwide, as well as polar, pollution problems. Arctic Air Pollution is an edited collection of papers, first presented at a conference helo as the Scott Polar Research Institute in Cambridge in 1985. Building on foundations established at earlier meetings, this volume examines the problem of Arctic air pollution in an integrated, multidisciplinary fashion, with contributions from leading authorities in chemistry, ecology, climatology and epidemiology. To chemists, physicists and climatologists, it presents scientific problems. Ecologists are concerned with environmental threats; medical researchers with potential threats to human health. International lawyers and administrators are concerned with the legal implications of pollutants transferred across continents. Overall hangs the major question; can man-made pollution affect the delicate energy balance of the Arctic, and precipitate major climatic change worldwide?
Download or read book Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis of the Atmospheric Impacts of Combustion Emissions written by Irene Constantina Dedoussi and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Combustion emissions impact the environment through chemical and transport processes that span varying temporal and spatial scales. Numerical simulation of the effects of combustion emissions and potential corresponding mitigation approaches is computationally expensive. Atmospheric adjoint modeling enables the calculation of receptor-oriented sensitivities of environmental metrics of interest to emissions, overcoming the numerical cost of conventional modeling. This thesis applies and further develops an existing adjoint of a chemistry-transport model to perform three evaluations, where the high number of inputs (due to the nature of the problem or the associated uncertainty) prevented comprehensive assessment in the past. First, this thesis quantifies the pollution exchange between the US states for seven major anthropogenic combustion emissions sectors: electric power generation, industry, commercial/residential, aviation, as well as road, marine, and rail transportation. This thesis presents the state-level fine particulate matter (PM2.5) early death impacts of combustion emissions in the US for 2005, 2011 and 2018 (forecast), and how these are driven by sector, chemical species, and location of emission. Results indicate major shifts in the chemical species and sectors that cause most early deaths, and opportunities for further improving air quality in the US. Second, this thesis quantifies how changes in emissions impact the marginal atmospheric PM2.5 response to emissions perturbations. State-level annual adjoint sensitivities of PM2.5 population exposure to precursor emissions are compared for the years of 2006 and 2011, and correlated with the magnitude of emissions reduction and the background ammonia mixing ratio. Third, this thesis presents the development and evaluation of the discrete adjoint of the GEOS-Chem unified tropospheric-stratospheric chemistry extension (UCX), which enables the calculation of stratospheric sensitivities and the examination of the entire design space of high altitude emissions impacts. To illustrate its potential, sensitivities of stratospheric ozone to precursor species are calculated. This development expands the span of atmospheric chemistry-transport questions (including inversions) that this open-source model can be used to answer. The assessments performed in this thesis span spatial scales from the regional to the global and demonstrate the ability of this approach to provide information on both bottom-up and top-down mitigation approaches.
Download or read book Workbook of Atmospheric Dispersion Estimates written by D. Bruce Turner and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 1994-05-05 with total page 186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This completely updated and revised Second Edition of the popular Workbook of Atmospheric Dispersion Estimates provides an important foundation for understanding dispersion modeling as it is being practiced today. The book and accompanying diskette will help you determine the impacts of various sources of air pollution, including the effects of wind and turbulence, plume rise, and Gaussian dispersion and its limitations. Information is shown in summary graphs as well as in equations. The programs included on the diskette allow you to "get the feel" for the results you'll obtain through the input of various combinations of parameter values. The sensitivity of data to various parameters can be easily explored by changing one value and seeing the effect on the results. The book presents 37 example problems with solutions to show the estimation of atmospheric pollutant concentrations for many situations.
Download or read book Sensitivity Analysis in Earth Observation Modelling written by George P. Petropoulos and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2016-10-07 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sensitivity Analysis in Earth Observation Modeling highlights the state-of-the-art in ongoing research investigations and new applications of sensitivity analysis in earth observation modeling. In this framework, original works concerned with the development or exploitation of diverse methods applied to different types of earth observation data or earth observation-based modeling approaches are included. An overview of sensitivity analysis methods and principles is provided first, followed by examples of applications and case studies of different sensitivity/uncertainty analysis implementation methods, covering the full spectrum of sensitivity analysis techniques, including operational products. Finally, the book outlines challenges and future prospects for implementation in earth observation modeling. Information provided in this book is of practical value to readers looking to understand the principles of sensitivity analysis in earth observation modeling, the level of scientific maturity in the field, and where the main limitations or challenges are in terms of improving our ability to implement such approaches in a wide range of applications. Readers will also be informed on the implementation of sensitivity/uncertainty analysis on operational products available at present, on global and continental scales. All of this information is vital in the selection process of the most appropriate sensitivity analysis method to implement. Outlines challenges and future prospects of sensitivity analysis implementation in earth observation modeling Provides readers with a roadmap for directing future efforts Includes case studies with applications from different regions around the globe, helping readers to explore strengths and weaknesses of the different methods in earth observation modeling Presents a step-by-step guide, providing the principles of each method followed by the application of variants, making the reference easy to use and follow
Download or read book Advanced Sensitivity Analysis Techniques for Atmospheric Chemistry Models written by Shannon Capps and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Trace gases and aerosols, or suspended liquid and solid material in the atmosphere, have significant climatological and societal impacts; consequently, accurate representation of their contribution to atmospheric composition is vital to predicting climate change and informing policy actions. Sensitivity analysis allows scientists and environmental decision makers alike to ascertain the role a specific component of the very complex system that is the atmosphere of the Earth. Anthropogenic and natural emissions of gases and aerosol are transported by winds and interact with sunlight, allowing significant transformation before these species reach the end of their atmospheric life on land or in water. The adjoint-based sensitivity method assesses the relative importance of each emissions source to selected results of interest, including aerosol and cloud droplet concentration. In this work, the adjoint of a comprehensive inorganic aerosol thermodynamic equilibrium model was produced to improve the representativeness of regional and global chemical transport modeling. Furthermore, a global chemical transport model adjoint equipped with the adjoint of a cloud droplet activation parameterization was used to explore the footprint of emissions contributing to current and potential future cloud droplet concentrations, which impact the radiative balance of the earth. In future work, these sensitivity relationships can be exploited in optimization frameworks for assimilation of observations of the system, such as satellite-based or in situ measurements of aerosol or precursor trace gas concentrations.
Download or read book Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling written by Rod Barratt and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-11-05 with total page 265 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To comply with legal and other standards, businesses and regulators are increasingly required to make decisions based on risk assessments of the potential effects of their activities on the environment. Atmospheric dispersion modelling is a cost-effective method, allowing various scenarios to be explored before expensive investment takes place. This guide offers advice on this environmental management tool. Unlike much of the previous literature, it doesn't focus excessively on the mathematical theory behind the modelling or on modelling for specific regulatory purposes. Instead, it offers an understanding of the background to the methodologies, providing exercises to develop the skills to carry these out and including examples of the use of commercially available models to enable the reader to assess the results of modelling for risk assessment.
Download or read book Improving Characterization of Anthropogenic Methane Emissions in the United States written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2018-08-25 with total page 251 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding, quantifying, and tracking atmospheric methane and emissions is essential for addressing concerns and informing decisions that affect the climate, economy, and human health and safety. Atmospheric methane is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) that contributes to global warming. While carbon dioxide is by far the dominant cause of the rise in global average temperatures, methane also plays a significant role because it absorbs more energy per unit mass than carbon dioxide does, giving it a disproportionately large effect on global radiative forcing. In addition to contributing to climate change, methane also affects human health as a precursor to ozone pollution in the lower atmosphere. Improving Characterization of Anthropogenic Methane Emissions in the United States summarizes the current state of understanding of methane emissions sources and the measurement approaches and evaluates opportunities for methodological and inventory development improvements. This report will inform future research agendas of various U.S. agencies, including NOAA, the EPA, the DOE, NASA, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF).
Download or read book Mathematical Models for Atmospheric Pollutants written by R. L. Drake and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Global Environmental Change written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1999-09-14 with total page 621 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can we understand and rise to the environmental challenges of global change? One clear answer is to understand the science of global change, not solely in terms of the processes that control changes in climate and the composition of the atmosphere, but in how ecosystems and human society interact with these changes. In the last two decades of the twentieth century, a number of such research effortsâ€"supported by computer and satellite technologyâ€"have been launched. Yet many opportunities for integration remain unexploited, and many fundamental questions remain about the earth's capacity to support a growing human population. This volume encourages a renewed commitment to understanding global change and sets a direction for research in the decade ahead. Through case studies the book explores what can be learned from the lessons of the past 20 years and what are the outstanding scientific questions. Highlights include: Research imperatives and strategies for investigators in the areas of atmospheric chemistry, climate, ecosystem studies, and human dimensions of global change. The context of climate change, including lessons to be gleaned from paleoclimatology. Human responses toâ€"and forcing ofâ€"projected global change. This book offers a comprehensive overview of global change research to date and provides a framework for answering urgent questions.
Download or read book Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXVI written by Clemens Mensink and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-11-23 with total page 490 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Current developments in air pollution modeling are explored as a series of contributions from researchers at the forefront of their field. This newest contribution on air pollution modeling and its application is focused on local, urban, regional and intercontinental modeling; emission modeling and processing; data assimilation and air quality forecasting; model assessment and evaluation; atmospheric aerosols. Additionally, this work also examines the relationship between air quality and human health and the effects of climate change on air quality. This work is a collection of selected papers presented at the 36th International Technical Meeting on Air Pollution Modeling and its Application, held in Ottawa, Canada, May 14-18, 2018. The book is intended as reference material for students and professors interested in air pollution modeling at the graduate level as well as researchers and professionals involved in developing and utilizing air pollution models.
Download or read book Thriving on Our Changing Planet A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2019-06-18 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We live on a dynamic Earth shaped by both natural processes and the impacts of humans on their environment. It is in our collective interest to observe and understand our planet, and to predict future behavior to the extent possible, in order to effectively manage resources, successfully respond to threats from natural and human-induced environmental change, and capitalize on the opportunities â€" social, economic, security, and more â€" that such knowledge can bring. By continuously monitoring and exploring Earth, developing a deep understanding of its evolving behavior, and characterizing the processes that shape and reshape the environment in which we live, we not only advance knowledge and basic discovery about our planet, but we further develop the foundation upon which benefits to society are built. Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space (National Academies Press, 2018) provides detailed guidance on how relevant federal agencies can ensure that the United States receives the maximum benefit from its investments in Earth observations from space, while operating within realistic cost constraints. This short booklet, designed to be accessible to the general public, provides a summary of the key ideas and recommendations from the full decadal survey report.
Download or read book The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-04-30 with total page 755 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Download or read book Application of the Complex Step Method to Chemistry transport Modeling written by Bogdan Valeriu Constantin and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sensitivity analysis in atmospheric chemistry-transport modeling is used to develop understanding of the mechanisms by which emissions affect atmospheric chemistry and composition, to quantify the marginal impact of emissions on air quality, and for other applications including improving estimates of emissions, developing fast first order air quality models, and validating adjoint models. In forward modeling sensitivities have predominantly been calculated using the finite difference approach, i.e. where the results of two separate simulations are subtracted. The finite difference approach incurs truncation and cancellation errors, which mean that exact sensitivities cannot be calculated and even approximate sensitivities cannot always be calculated for a sufficiently small perturbation (e.g. for emissions at a single location or time). Other sensitivity methods can provide exact sensitivities, but require the reformulation of non-linear steps (e.g. the decoupled direct method) or the adjointing of entire codes (partly automatically and partly manually). While the adjoint approach is widely applied and has significant utility in providing source-oriented information, in some applications the receptor-oriented information of forward approaches is needed. Here we apply an alternative method of calculating sensitivities that results in receptor-oriented information as with the finite difference approach, requires minimal reformulation of models, but enables near-exact computation of sensitivities. This approach - the complex step method - is applied for the first time to a complete atmospheric chemistry-transport model (GEOS-Chem). We also introduce the idea of combining complex-step and adjoint sensitivity analysis (for the first time in any context to our knowledge) to enable the direct calculation of near-exact second order sensitivities.
Download or read book Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling Compliance Guide written by Karl B. Schnelle and published by McGraw-Hill Professional Publishing. This book was released on 2000 with total page 570 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: CD-ROM includes: Practice problems that reinforces and deepen understanding of modeling principles.
Download or read book Valuing Climate Damages written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2017-06-23 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The social cost of carbon (SC-CO2) is an economic metric intended to provide a comprehensive estimate of the net damages - that is, the monetized value of the net impacts, both negative and positive - from the global climate change that results from a small (1-metric ton) increase in carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions. Under Executive Orders regarding regulatory impact analysis and as required by a court ruling, the U.S. government has since 2008 used estimates of the SC-CO2 in federal rulemakings to value the costs and benefits associated with changes in CO2 emissions. In 2010, the Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases (IWG) developed a methodology for estimating the SC-CO2 across a range of assumptions about future socioeconomic and physical earth systems. Valuing Climate Changes examines potential approaches, along with their relative merits and challenges, for a comprehensive update to the current methodology. This publication also recommends near- and longer-term research priorities to ensure that the SC- CO2 estimates reflect the best available science.
Download or read book Sensitivity Analysis in Air Quality Models for Particulate Matter written by Sergey L. Napelenok and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been associated with a variety of problems that include adverse health effects, reduction in visibility, damage to buildings and crops, and possible interactions with climate. Although stringent air quality regulations are in place, policy makers need efficient tools to test a wide range of control strategies. Sensitivity analysis provides predictions on how the interdependent concentrations of various PM2.5 components and also gaseous pollutant species will respond to specific combinations of precursor emission reductions. The Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) was outfitted with the Decoupled Direct Method in 3D for calculating sensitivities of particulate matter (DDM-3D/PM). This method was evaluated and applied to high PM2.5 episodes in the Southeast United States. Sensitivities of directly emitted particles as well as those formed in the atmosphere through chemical and physical processing of emissions of gaseous precursors such as SO2, NOx, VOCs, and NH3 were calculated. DDM-3D/PM was further extended to calculate receptor oriented sensitivities or the Area of Influence (AOI). AOI analysis determines the geographical extent of relative air pollutant precursor contributions to pollutant levels at a specific receptor of interest. This method was applied to Atlanta and other major cities in Georgia. The tools developed here (DDM-3D/PM and AOI) provide valuable information to those charged with air quality management.
