Download or read book Learning in Economic Systems with Expectations Feedback written by Jan Wenzelburger and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-09-22 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recently economists have more and more focussed on scenarios in which agents' views of the world may be erroneous. These notes introduce the concept of perfect forecasting rules which provide best least-squares predictions along the evolution of an economic system. The framework for nonparametric adaptive learning schemes is developed and it is argued that plausible learning schemes should aim at estimating a perfect forecasting rule taking into account the correct feedback structure of an economy. A link is provided between the traditional rational-expectations view and recent behavioristic approaches.

Download or read book Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems written by Cars Hommes and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-24 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recognising that the economy is a complex system with boundedly rational interacting agents, the book presents a theory of behavioral rationality and heterogeneous expectations in complex economic systems and confronts the nonlinear dynamic models with empirical stylized facts and laboratory experiments. The complexity modeling paradigm has been strongly advocated since the late 1980s by some economists and by multidisciplinary scientists from various fields, such as physics, computer science and biology. More recently the complexity view has also drawn the attention of policy makers, who are faced with complex phenomena, irregular fluctuations and sudden, unpredictable market transitions. The complexity tools - bifurcations, chaos, multiple equilibria - discussed in this book will help students, researchers and policy makers to build more realistic behavioral models with heterogeneous expectations to describe financial market movements and macro-economic fluctuations, in order to better manage crises in a complex global economy.

Download or read book Complex Systems Approach to Economic Dynamics written by Abraham C.-L. Chian and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-08-17 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical analysis of stock markets and foreign exchange markets has demonstrated the intermittent nature of economic time series. A nonlinear model of business cycles is able to simulate intermittency arising from order-chaos and chaos-chaos transitions. This monograph introduces new concepts of unstable periodic orbits and chaotic saddles, which are unstable structures embedded in a chaotic attractor and responsible for economic intermittency.

Download or read book Pension Systems Demographic Change and the Stock Market written by Marten Hillebrand and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-10-16 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Due to the accelerating demographic change of the population the reform of the existing pension systems constitutes one of the greatest political challenges in most European countries. A theoretical discussion of different pension reforms must incorporate not only the demographic aspect but also the role of financial market risk and the impact on production and employment. These notes develop a dynamic macroeconomic model which incorporates these aspects within a flexible theoretical framework. The proposed approach provides a large scale population model and features a sound description of the production side as well as of the financial side of the economy and their interactions with the pension system. Within this framework various adjustment policies of the pension system are studied under different population scenarios. The consequences for the economy and the welfare of consumers are analyzed and compared.

Download or read book Economic Evolution and Equilibrium written by Marco Lehmann-Waffenschmidt and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-06-10 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work uses various model frameworks to study the evolution of equilibria in an open loop evolving economy in which the model characteristics evolve without any directional restrictions except for continuity. Applying mathematical methods, it is shown that equilibria can always be adapted in a piecewise gradual, non bang-bang way.

Download or read book Cooperative Systems written by Don Grundel and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-03-21 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Because of the clearly important role cooperative systems play in areas such as military sciences, biology, communications, robotics, and economics, just to name a few, the study of cooperative systems has intensified. This book provides an insight in the basic understanding of cooperative systems as well as in theory, modeling, and applications of cooperative control, optimization and related problems.

Download or read book Economic Dynamics and Information written by Jaroslav Zajac and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-08-01 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book analyzes the existence of equilibria in economies having a measured space of agents and a continuum of agents and commodities. Excessive homogeneity with respect to agent productivity leads to instability and non-uniqueness of a given stationary state and the indeterminacy of the corresponding stationary state equilibrium. Sufficient heterogeneity leads to global saddle-path stability, uniqueness of a given stationary state and the global uniqueness of the corresponding equilibrium.

Download or read book Risk Averse Capacity Control in Revenue Management written by Christiane Barz and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-08-02 with total page 167 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book revises the well-known capacity control problem in revenue management from the perspective of a risk-averse decision-maker. Modelling an expected utility maximizing decision maker, the problem is formulated as a risk-sensitive Markov decision process. Special emphasis is put on the existence of structured optimal policies. Numerical examples illustrate the results.

Download or read book Partner Choice and Cooperation in Networks written by Aljaž Ule and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-01-10 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, a social dilemma with partner selection is introduced and studied with the methods of formal game theory, experimental economics and computer simulations. It allows exploration of simultaneous dynamics of the network structure and cooperative behavior on this structure. The results of this study show that partner choice strongly facilitates cooperation and leads to networks where free-riders are likely to be excluded.

Download or read book Evolution of Non Expected Utility Preferences written by Sven von Widekind and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-01-08 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The theory on the evolution of preferences deals with the endogenous formation of preference relations in strategic situations. It is related to the field of evolutionary game theory. In this book we analyze the role and the influence of general, possibly non-expected utility preferences in such an evolutionary setup. In particular, we demonstrate that preferences which diverge from von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility may potentially prove to be successful under evolutionary pressures.

Download or read book The Knowledge Ahead Approach to Risk written by Robin Pope and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-11-23 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is written for those seeking a decision theory appropriate for use in serious choices such as insurance. It employs stages of knowledge ahead to track satisfactions and dissatisfactions. From experimental and questionnaire data, people take into account such stages of knowledge ahead satisfactions and dissatisfactions. This means we must go beyond standard decision theories like expected utility or cumulative prospect theory.

Download or read book Computational Aspects of General Equilibrium Theory written by Donald Brown and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-01-08 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This monograph presents a general equilibrium methodology for microeconomic policy analysis. It is intended to serve as an alternative to the now classical, axiomatic general equilibrium theory as exposited in Debreu`s Theory of Value (1959) or Arrow and Hahn`s General Competitive Analysis (1971). The monograph consists of several essays written over the last decade. It also contains an appendix by Charles Steinhorn on the elements of O-minimal structures.

Download or read book Generalized Convexity and Related Topics written by Igor V. Konnov and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-11-22 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book contains invited papers by well-known experts on a wide range of topics (economics, variational analysis, probability etc.) closely related to convexity and generalized convexity, and refereed contributions of specialists from the world on current research on generalized convexity and applications, in particular, to optimization, economics and operations research.

Download or read book Advances in Artificial Economics written by Charlotte Bruun and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-05-19 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is based on presentations at AE’2006 (Aalborg, Denmark) – the second symposium on Artificial Economics. As a new constructive simulation method, Agent-Based Computational Economics (ACE) has in recent years proven its strength and applicability. Coverage in this volume extends to well known questions of economics, like the existence of market efficiency, and to questions raised by new analytical tools, for example networks of social interaction.

Download or read book Financial Risk Management with Bayesian Estimation of GARCH Models written by David Ardia and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-05-08 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents in detail methodologies for the Bayesian estimation of sing- regime and regime-switching GARCH models. These models are widespread and essential tools in n ancial econometrics and have, until recently, mainly been estimated using the classical Maximum Likelihood technique. As this study aims to demonstrate, the Bayesian approach o ers an attractive alternative which enables small sample results, robust estimation, model discrimination and probabilistic statements on nonlinear functions of the model parameters. The author is indebted to numerous individuals for help in the preparation of this study. Primarily, I owe a great debt to Prof. Dr. Philippe J. Deschamps who inspired me to study Bayesian econometrics, suggested the subject, guided me under his supervision and encouraged my research. I would also like to thank Prof. Dr. Martin Wallmeier and my colleagues of the Department of Quantitative Economics, in particular Michael Beer, Roberto Cerratti and Gilles Kaltenrieder, for their useful comments and discussions. I am very indebted to my friends Carlos Ord as Criado, Julien A. Straubhaar, J er ^ ome Ph. A. Taillard and Mathieu Vuilleumier, for their support in the elds of economics, mathematics and statistics. Thanks also to my friend Kevin Barnes who helped with my English in this work. Finally, I am greatly indebted to my parents and grandparents for their support and encouragement while I was struggling with the writing of this thesis.

Download or read book Portfolios of Real Options written by Rainer Brosch and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-03-29 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Valuing portfolios of options embedded in investment decisions is arguably one of the most important and challenging problems in real options and corporate ?nance in general. Although the problem is common and vitally important in the value creation process of almost any corporation, it has not yet been satisfactorily addressed. It is key for any corporation facing strategic resource allocation decisions, be it a pharmaceutical ?rm valuing and managing its pipeline of drugs, a telecom company having to select a set of technological alternatives, a venture capital or private equity ?rm investing in a portfolio of ventures, or any company allocating resources. Portfolios of real options typically interact such that the value of the whole differs from the sum of the separate parts. Thus one must address and value the particular con?guration of options embedded in a speci?c situation, taking into account the con?guration of other options already present in the portfolio, which in turn depends on the correlation struc ture among the various underlying assets and the strategic dependencies among the options themselves (e. g. , mutual exclusivity, strategic additiv ity, compoundness, complementarity etc. ). In that sense, optimal decisions also depend on past option exercise decisions by management and organi zational capabilities put in place in the past.

Download or read book Fuzzy Portfolio Optimization written by Yong Fang and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-09-20 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most of the existing portfolio selection models are based on the probability theory. Though they often deal with the uncertainty via probabilistic - proaches, we have to mention that the probabilistic approaches only partly capture the reality. Some other techniques have also been applied to handle the uncertainty of the ?nancial markets, for instance, the fuzzy set theory [Zadeh (1965)]. In reality, many events with fuzziness are characterized by probabilistic approaches, although they are not random events. The fuzzy set theory has been widely used to solve many practical problems, including ?nancial risk management. By using fuzzy mathematical approaches, quan- tative analysis, qualitative analysis, the experts’ knowledge and the investors’ subjective opinions can be better integrated into a portfolio selection model. The contents of this book mainly comprise of the authors’ research results for fuzzy portfolio selection problems in recent years. In addition, in the book, the authors will also introduce some other important progress in the ?eld of fuzzy portfolio optimization. Some fundamental issues and problems of po- folioselectionhavebeenstudiedsystematicallyandextensivelybytheauthors to apply fuzzy systems theory and optimization methods. A new framework for investment analysis is presented in this book. A series of portfolio sel- tion models are given and some of them might be more e?cient for practical applications. Some application examples are given to illustrate these models by using real data from the Chinese securities markets.