Download or read book Leading Indicators Predicting Economic Growth Recessions written by Domenik André Maier and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators written by James H. Stock and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the forecasting performance of various leading economic indicators and composite indexes since 1988. in particular during the onset of the 1990 recession. The primary focus is on an experimental recession index (tile "XRI"). a composite index which provides probabilistic forecasts of whether the U.S. economy will be in a recession six months hence. After detailing its construction, the paper examines the out-of-sample performance of the XRI and a related forecast of overall economic growth. the experimental leading index (XLI). These indexes performed well from 1988 through the summer of 1990 - for example. in June 1990 the XLI model forecasted a .4% (annual rate) decline in the experimental coincident index from June through September. when in fact the decline was only slightly greater, .8%. However. the XLI failed to forecast the sharp declines of October and November 1990. After exploring several possible explanations. we conclude that one important source of the forecast error was the use of financial variables during a recession that was not associated with a particularly tight monetary policy. Financial indicators -- and the experimental index -- were not alone. however. in failing to forecast the 1990 recession, An examination of 45 economic indicators shows that almost all failed to forecast the 1990downturn. and the few that did provided unclear signals before the recessions of the 19705 and 1980s
Download or read book Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions written by Jonas Dovern and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Beating the Business Cycle written by Lakshman Achuthan and published by Crown Currency. This book was released on 2004-05-18 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can you make wise decisions about your company and your personal future when you have no idea where the economy is headed? The answer is, you can’t. But you can learn how to accurately predict turns in the economy so that you can see the road ahead. And BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE shows you how. In BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the directors of the renowned Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show how anyone can predict and profit from the inevitable booms and busts of the economy. Why should we believe them? Because while so many economists and financial gurus have failed to predict recessions in the past, ECRI’s forecasts are known for being uncannily accurate. The institute successfully predicted the U.S. recession of 2001 many months before the economists did; the 1990 recession and later recovery; and most recently, the weak U.S. recovery in 2002. ECRI is in constant demand by corporate America and the media. It is the “secret weapon” of companies from Disney to DuPont, the major fund managers, and many central banks. BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE is the first book to reveal how decision makers at all levels–managers, small business owners, and individuals–can see into the economy’s future when making key decisions. Should a large company search out new clients and build new factories or stores, or should it consider cost cutting and layoffs? Is it the right time for you to splurge on that luxury vacation or addition to your house, or would it be more prudent to cut back on big expenditures and save money for a rainy day? Written in an easy-to-understand, accessible style, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE reveals which of the hundreds of economic indicators to trust and which ones to trash. It will give you the tools and confidence you need to make the right decisions at the right times–even when the rest of the investing and business world would persuade you otherwise. Whether you are a corporate manager or the owner of a small business, whether you have your money invested in stocks or in your home, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE will give you the edge you need to trump the competition and stay ahead of the crowd.
Download or read book Leading Economic Indicators written by Kajal Lahiri and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1991 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.
Download or read book Recessions written by Nerea M. Pérez and published by Nova Science Publishers. This book was released on 2009 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A critical consideration in understanding business cycles is the amplification and propagation of shocks to the economic system. Many recessions seem to arise without a clearly identifiable cause or at least one of significant magnitude to justify an economy-wide recession. How can a small shock cause large changes in the economy? What are the mechanisms that amplify a modest shock such that a serious recession ensues? Despite the persistent search for a mechanism for business cycle amplification and propagation, much research in business cycles seems to ignore the likely role of the financial system. If a shock to the economy inhibits the capital allocation capability of an economy, then a seemingly mild shock may be amplified through its impact on new investment thereby snuffing out economic growth and causing a recession. This book provides new research on the field of recessions from around the globe.
Download or read book Business Cycles Indicators and Forecasting written by James H. Stock and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.
Download or read book Forecasting Future Economic Growth written by Maria Khait and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The broad literature documents the empirical regularity that slope of the term structure of interest rates is a reliable predictor of future real economic activity. Steeper slopes presage increasing growth, and downward sloping term structures presage declining growth or even recession. Some instances of slope's misleading signals were recorded in 2006 (the term structure was flat, indicating decline in economic activity when high growth continued) and 2008 (the term structure was very steep, predicting economic growth when recession continued and took a deep dive). Moreover, Breeden (2012a) showed that the term structure of interest rates has had less predictive power over the past fifty years than has been found in earlier researches over shorter periods of time. The key idea underlying this paper was to test whether the term structure of volatility and the term structure of inflation combined with the term spread could improve predictions of future economic growth compared to interest rate based forecasts with only one variable. This study finds that while the term structure spread and volatility appear to be statistically significant variables there is little evidence of improved performance compare to interest rate based forecasts with only one variable.
Download or read book Predicting Recessions written by Chikako Baba and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-10-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study proposes a data-based algorithm to select a subset of indicators from a large data set with a focus on forecasting recessions. The algorithm selects leading indicators of recessions based on the forecast encompassing principle and combines the forecasts. An application to U.S. data shows that forecasts obtained from the algorithm are consistently among the best in a large comparative forecasting exercise at various forecasting horizons. In addition, the selected indicators are reasonable and consistent with the standard leading indicators followed by many observers of business cycles. The suggested algorithm has several advantages, including wide applicability and objective variable selection.
Download or read book Business Cycle Indicators written by Karl Heinrich Oppenländer and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The pressure to produce explanations and forecasts and the economic dichotomies which insist on appearing, lead to a desire to deal with the description, analysis and forecast of the phenomenon of business cycles using economic indicators. This text provides an introduction to business cycles and their theoretical and historical basis. It also includes work on early indicator research and provides examples of business cycle indicators.
Download or read book How a Recession Affects You written by Jason Porterfield and published by The Rosen Publishing Group, Inc. This book was released on 2012-12-15 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When the economy slows, a vicious cycle begins. People cut back on spending, so companies sell less and see their profits shrink. Workers are laid off, leading to even less consumer spending. With lower incomes, people pay less in taxes, and the government can't fund its programs and services, reducing the quality of life for its citizens, who grow ever more fearful and less likely to spend money. Now, more than ever, young people need to understand the mechanisms of recessionhow it begins, what happens when it takes hold, and how and when recovery begins. Armed with good information and useful knowledge, readers will feel less bewildered by economic events that seem beyond their control and better able to plan ahead for inevitable dips in the business cycle. Forewarned is forearmed, and knowledge is power. This book offers a highly empowering insight into the inner workings of the economy and the secrets to weathering even the worst recessionary storm.
Download or read book Economic Forecasting written by Elia Kacapyr and published by M.E. Sharpe. This book was released on 1996 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Widening the focus from the usual business forecasts, explains the techniques for predicting macroeconomic factors such as economic growth, interest rates, and employment. Reviews the concepts of business cycles and long waves, then describes techniques using economic indicators, time series, econometric models, and consensus. Also considers the evaluation of forecasts. Readers with a solid background in mathematics and statistics should learn now to make forecasts; others should get an intuitive understanding that will improve their interpretation of forecasts by others. Paper edition (unseen), $29.95. Annotation copyright by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
Download or read book Current Issues in Economics and Finance written by Bandi Kamaiah and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-01-12 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses wide topics related to current issues in economic growth and development, international trade, macroeconomic and financial stability, inflation, monetary policy, banking, productivity, agriculture and food security. It is a collection of seventeen research papers selected based on their quality in terms of contemporary topic, newness in the methodology, and themes. All selected papers have followed an empirical approach to address research issues, and are segregated in five parts. Part one covers papers related to fiscal and price stability, monetary policy and economic growth. The second part contains works related to financial integration, capital market volatility and macroeconomic stability. Third part deals with issues related to international trade and economic growth. Part four covers topics related to productivity and firm performance. The final part discusses issues related to agriculture and food security. The book would be of interest to researchers, academicians as a ready reference on current issues in economics and finance.
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Download or read book Alternative Economic Indicators written by C. James Hueng and published by W.E. Upjohn Institute. This book was released on 2020-09-08 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Policymakers and business practitioners are eager to gain access to reliable information on the state of the economy for timely decision making. More so now than ever. Traditional economic indicators have been criticized for delayed reporting, out-of-date methodology, and neglecting some aspects of the economy. Recent advances in economic theory, econometrics, and information technology have fueled research in building broader, more accurate, and higher-frequency economic indicators. This volume contains contributions from a group of prominent economists who address alternative economic indicators, including indicators in the financial market, indicators for business cycles, and indicators of economic uncertainty.
Download or read book Economic Forecasting The State of the Art written by Elia Xacapyr and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-09-16 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An overview of the macroeconomic forecasting industry in the United States that explains and evaluates the forecasting techniques used to make predictions about various aspects of the national economy.
Download or read book The Leading Indicator Approach to Economic Forecasting written by Philip A. Klein and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For many years a system of leading, coincident, and lagging economic indicators, first developed in the 1930s by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), has been widely used in the United States to appraise the state of the business cycle. Since 1961 the current monthly figures for these indicators have been published by the U.S. Department of Commerce in Business Conditions Digest. Similar systems have been developed by government or private agencies in Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and more recently in many other countries. A few years ago the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) set up a working party to develop this type of analysis and most of the member countries participated. The Center for International Business Cycle Research at Rutgers University has given guidance in this field to some fifteen countries during the past three years, in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Africa and South America. Our purpose in this paper is to explain briefly the theory and rationale underlying this approach to economic forecasting, describe the more important statistical procedures used, and review the evidence on how the indicators have performed in practice. The tests of performance concentrate on data not used in the selection of the indicators, in the United States and nine other countries. We conclude with some suggestions for future research and development, including the application of the approach to the analysis of inflation. [Resumen de autor]
