Download or read book Leading Indicators of Currency Crises in Emerging Economies written by Olivier Burkart and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Assessing Financial Vulnerability written by Morris Goldstein and published by Peterson Institute. This book was released on 2000 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study reviews the literature on the origins of currency and banking crises. It presents empirical tests on the performance of alternative early-warning indicators for emerging-market economies. The book also identifies crisis-threshold values for early-warning indicators.
Download or read book Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Markets written by Stefan Jansen and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 95 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper aims at identifying key empirical regularities characterizing the onset of a currency crisis that might be suitable for early warning purposes and proceeds by providing analysis and empirical tests of economic and financial variables both in-sample and out-of-sample in order to assess their performance as leading indicators of a speculative attack. Two distinct methodologies are compared and implications for the theory of currency crises and economic policies to their prevention will be investigated in the process.
Download or read book Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets written by Michael P. Dooley and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The management of financial crises in emerging markets is a vital and high-stakes challenge in an increasingly global economy. For this reason, it's also a highly contentious issue in today's public policy circles. In this book, leading economists-many of whom have also participated in policy debates on these issues-consider how best to reduce the frequency and cost of such crises. The contributions here explore the management process from the beginning of a crisis to the long-term effects of the techniques used to minimize it. The first three chapters focus on the earliest responses and the immediate defense of a currency under attack, exploring whether unnecessary damage to economies can be avoided by adopting the right response within the first few days of a financial crisis. Next, contributors examine the adjustment programs that follow, considering how to design these programs so that they shorten the recovery phase, encourage economic growth, and minimize the probability of future difficulties. Finally, the last four papers analyze the actual effects of adjustment programs, asking whether they accomplish what they are designed to do-and whether, as many critics assert, they impose disproportionate costs on the poorest members of society. Recent high-profile currency crises have proven not only how harmful they can be to neighboring economies and trading partners, but also how important policy responses can be in determining their duration and severity. Economists and policymakers will welcome the insightful evaluations in this important volume, and those of its companion, Sebastian Edwards and Jeffrey A. Frankel's Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets.
Download or read book Leading Indicators of Currency Crises written by Müge Ant and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2002 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Early Indicators of Currency Crises Review of Some Literature written by Magdalena Tomczynska and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial crises have become relatively frequent events since the beginning of the 1980s. They have taken three main forms: currency crises, banking crises, or both - so called twin crises. As the number of developed economies, developing countries, and economies in transition experienced severe financial crashes researchers are trying to propose a framework for systemic analyses. That is why attempts to advance the understanding of features leading to the outbreak of financial crisis as well as the reasons of vulnerability have become more and more important. In recent years a number of efforts have been undertaken to identify variables that act as early warning signals for crises. The purpose of this paper is to provide some perspective on the issue of early warning signals of vulnerability to currency crises. In particular, it is aimed at presenting and highlighting the main findings of theoretical literature in this area. An effective warning system should consider a broad variety of indicators, as currency crises seem to be usually associated with multiple economic and sometimes political problems. Indicators that have proven to be particularly useful in anticipating crises and received empirical support include the development of international reserves, real exchange rate, domestic credit, credit to the public sector, domestic inflation, and structure and financing of public debt. Other indicators that have found support are trade balance, export performance, money growth, M2/international reserves ratio, foreign interest rates, real GDP growth, and fiscal deficit. Many of the proposed leading indicators have been able to predict particular crises, however, only few have showed ability to do so consistently. Generally, economic models can be said to be more successful in predicting crises that erupt because of weak fundamentals, which make country vulnerable to adverse shocks. They are less likely in anticipating crises due to selffulfilling expectations or pure contagion effects. So far economists are only able to identify situations in which an economy could face the risk of a financial crisis. This is most because of the well-known fact that if we knew the crisis would have already occurred. Warning indicators seem to be unlikely to predict crises in precise way but their analyses can provide extended information about impending problems what enables to take preventive measures.
Download or read book Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets written by Sebastian Edwards and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2009-02-15 with total page 783 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists and policymakers are still trying to understand the lessons recent financial crises in Asia and other emerging market countries hold for the future of the global financial system. In this timely and important volume, distinguished academics, officials in multilateral organizations, and public and private sector economists explore the causes of and effective policy responses to international currency crises. Topics covered include exchange rate regimes, contagion (transmission of currency crises across countries), the current account of the balance of payments, the role of private sector investors and of speculators, the reaction of the official sector (including the multilaterals), capital controls, bank supervision and weaknesses, and the roles of cronyism, corruption, and large players (including hedge funds). Ably balancing detailed case studies, cross-country comparisons, and theoretical concerns, this book will make a major contribution to ongoing efforts to understand and prevent international currency crises.
Download or read book Currency Crises in Emerging Markets written by Marek Dabrowski and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 309 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, prepared by Warsaw-based Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE), discusses various aspects of currency crises in emerging-market economies: The definitions and theoretical models of currency crises, the causes, management and propagation (contagion effect) of crises, their economic, social and policy consequences, the role of international financial institutions, and crisis prevention. In addition, five case studies of currency crises in Central and Eastern Europe are presented.
Download or read book Leading Indicators of Country Risk and Currency Crisis written by Fang Dong and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Leading Indicators of Currency Crises written by Graciela Kaminsky and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning quot;signalquot; that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.
Download or read book Financial Cycles Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crises written by Ms. Sally Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-04-29 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Can the upturns and downturns in financial variables serve as early warning indicators of banking crises? Using data from 59 advanced and emerging economies, we show that financial overheating can be detected in real time. Equity prices and output gap are the best leading indicators in advanced markets; in emerging markets, these are equity and property prices and credit gap. Moreover, aggregating this information flags financial crisis many years before the crisis. Lastly, we find that the length of financial cycles is of medium-term frequency, calling into question the longer frequency widely used in the estimation of countercyclical capital buffers.
Download or read book Currency and Banking Crises written by Graciela Laura Kaminsky and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-12-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and were thus unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes that the Asian crises are not of a new variety. Overall, the 1997 Asian crises, as well as previous crises elsewhere, occur when economies are in distress, making the degree of fragility of the economy a useful indicator of future crises. Based on this idea, the paper proposes different composite leading indicators of crises, evaluated in terms of accuracy both in-sample and out-of-sample.
Download or read book Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies written by Mr.Fabio Comelli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-17 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict insample and out-of-sample currency crises in emerging markets (EMs). We look at episodes of currency crises that took place in 29 EMs between January 1995 and December 2012. Stronger real GDP growth rates and higher net foreign assets significantly reduce the probability of experiencing a currency crisis, while high levels of credit to the private sector increase it. We find that the logit and probit EWS out-of-sample performances are broadly similar, and that the EWS performance can be very sensitive both to the size of the estimation sample, and to the crisis definition employed. For macroeconomic policy purposes, we conclude that a currency crisis definition identifying more rather than less crisis episodes should be used, even if this may lead to the risk of issuing false alarms.
Download or read book Early Warning Systems for Financial Crises written by Asian Development Bank and published by Springer. This book was released on 2005-02-15 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, East Asia has implemented a number of initiatives designed to strengthen monetary and financial cooperation, bolstering the region's resilience to economic and financial vulnerabilities. One such initiative is the ASEAN+3 Information Exchange and Policy Dialogue, which includes development of early warning systems (EWS) for financial crises. This book examines efforts to develop EWS models. Specifically, the book analyzes the current understanding of the causes of currency and banking crises, describes recent progress in developing and applying EWS models for currency and banking crises, reviews methodolgical issues, assesses the predictive power of EWS models and also highlights areas where further research is required to make these models more effective tools for policy analysis. The case studies apply both parametric and nonparametric approaches to EWS modleing using data from six East Asian countries.
Download or read book Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies written by Thomson Fontaine and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper takes a step in empirically testing the implications of a number of theoretical models that attempt to highlight the dynamics behind currency crises. By focusing on countries with broadly disparate economic and political arrangements, the study attempts to determine the extent to which these variables matter in affecting the probabilities of currency crises occurring. The empirical findings provide support for the view that, in general, a deterioration in economic fundamentals and the pursuit of lax monetary policy can contribute to currency crises. The experiences of several emerging market economies suggests that the sustainability of exchange rate policy depends both on adequate policy responses to the shocks to the economy and on the fragility of the economic, financial, and political system.
Download or read book Leading Indicators of Currency Crises written by Carmen Reinhart and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning "signal" that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.
Download or read book Financial Crises and Asia written by Centre for Economic Policy Research (Great Britain) and published by Centre for Economic Policy Research. This book was released on 1998 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Asset price volatility on world financial markets and foreign exchange markets has increased significantly since the Mexican peso crisis of December 1994. The Asian financial crisis, still underway, will leave significant costs in its wake. The notion that emerging markets can sort out their own problems if left to their own devices is no longer plausible, and policymakers cannot afford to adopt a laissez-faire attitude to this issue. The traditional IMF response of containment is a debatable solution. This report addresses these issues with emphasis on the important lessons that can be learned from the recent events in Asia.
