Download or read book Assessing Risk Assessment written by Christian Hugo Hoffmann and published by Springer Gabler. This book was released on 2017-12-06 with total page 377 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Christian Hugo Hoffmann undermines the citadel of risk assessment and management, arguing that classical probability theory is not an adequate foundation for modeling systemic and extreme risk in complex financial systems. He proposes a new class of models which focus on the knowledge dimension by precisely describing market participants’ own positions and their propensity to react to outside changes. The author closes his thesis by a synthetical reflection on methods and elaborates on the meaning of decision-making competency in a risk management context in banking. By choosing this poly-dimensional approach, the purpose of his work is to explore shortcomings of risk management approaches of financial institutions and to point out how they might be overcome.

Download or read book Steps to an Ecology of Mind written by Gregory Bateson and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2000 with total page 572 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Gregory Bateson was a philosopher, anthropologist, photographer, naturalist, and poet, as well as the husband and collaborator of Margaret Mead. This classic anthology of his major work includes a new Foreword by his daughter, Mary Katherine Bateson. 5 line drawings.

Download or read book Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and published by . This book was released on 2020-06-30 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible. Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress." Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=∞, and the real world is in between, under the "laws of the medium numbers"-which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence. A few examples: - The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "naïve empiricism," but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods. - The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical. - Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics. - Dimension reduction (principal components) fails. - Inequality estimators (Gini or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results. - Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions. - Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions. This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.

Download or read book Flexible Imputation of Missing Data Second Edition written by Stef van Buuren and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-07-17 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Missing data pose challenges to real-life data analysis. Simple ad-hoc fixes, like deletion or mean imputation, only work under highly restrictive conditions, which are often not met in practice. Multiple imputation replaces each missing value by multiple plausible values. The variability between these replacements reflects our ignorance of the true (but missing) value. Each of the completed data set is then analyzed by standard methods, and the results are pooled to obtain unbiased estimates with correct confidence intervals. Multiple imputation is a general approach that also inspires novel solutions to old problems by reformulating the task at hand as a missing-data problem. This is the second edition of a popular book on multiple imputation, focused on explaining the application of methods through detailed worked examples using the MICE package as developed by the author. This new edition incorporates the recent developments in this fast-moving field. This class-tested book avoids mathematical and technical details as much as possible: formulas are accompanied by verbal statements that explain the formula in accessible terms. The book sharpens the reader’s intuition on how to think about missing data, and provides all the tools needed to execute a well-grounded quantitative analysis in the presence of missing data.

Download or read book Two Sided Matching written by Alvin E. Roth and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1992-06-26 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Two-sided matching provides a model of search processes such as those between firms and workers in labor markets or between buyers and sellers in auctions. This book gives a comprehensive account of recent results concerning the game-theoretic analysis of two-sided matching. The focus of the book is on the stability of outcomes, on the incentives that different rules of organization give to agents, and on the constraints that these incentives impose on the ways such markets can be organized. The results for this wide range of related models and matching situations help clarify which conclusions depend on particular modeling assumptions and market conditions, and which are robust over a wide range of conditions. 'This book chronicles one of the outstanding success stories of the theory of games, a story in which the authors have played a major role: the theory and practice of matching markets ... The authors are to be warmly congratulated for this fine piece of work, which is quite unique in the game-theoretic literature.' From the Foreword by Robert Aumann

Download or read book Stochastic Models in Reliability and Maintenance written by Shunji Osaki and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-11-02 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Our daily lives can be maintained by the high-technology systems. Computer systems are typical examples of such systems. We can enjoy our modern lives by using many computer systems. Much more importantly, we have to maintain such systems without failure, but cannot predict when such systems will fail and how to fix such systems without delay. A stochastic process is a set of outcomes of a random experiment indexed by time, and is one of the key tools needed to analyze the future behavior quantitatively. Reliability and maintainability technologies are of great interest and importance to the maintenance of such systems. Many mathematical models have been and will be proposed to describe reliability and maintainability systems by using the stochastic processes. The theme of this book is "Stochastic Models in Reliability and Main tainability. " This book consists of 12 chapters on the theme above from the different viewpoints of stochastic modeling. Chapter 1 is devoted to "Renewal Processes," under which classical renewal theory is surveyed and computa tional methods are described. Chapter 2 discusses "Stochastic Orders," and in it some definitions and concepts on stochastic orders are described and ag ing properties can be characterized by stochastic orders. Chapter 3 is devoted to "Classical Maintenance Models," under which the so-called age, block and other replacement models are surveyed. Chapter 4 discusses "Modeling Plant Maintenance," describing how maintenance practice can be carried out for plant maintenance.

Download or read book The Craft of Probabilistic Modelling written by J. Gani and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings together the personal accounts and reflections of nineteen mathematical model-builders, whose specialty is probabilistic modelling. The reader may well wonder why, apart from personal interest, one should commission and edit such a collection of articles. There are, of course, many reasons, but perhaps the three most relevant are: (i) a philosophicaJ interest in conceptual models; this is an interest shared by everyone who has ever puzzled over the relationship between thought and reality; (ii) a conviction, not unsupported by empirical evidence, that probabilistic modelling has an important contribution to make to scientific research; and finally (iii) a curiosity, historical in its nature, about the complex interplay between personal events and the development of a field of mathematical research, namely applied probability. Let me discuss each of these in turn. Philosophical Abstraction, the formation of concepts, and the construction of conceptual models present us with complex philosophical problems which date back to Democritus, Plato and Aristotle. We have all, at one time or another, wondered just how we think; are our thoughts, concepts and models of reality approxim&tions to the truth, or are they simply functional constructs helping us to master our environment? Nowhere are these problems more apparent than in mathematical model ling, where idealized concepts and constructions replace the imperfect realities for which they stand.

Download or read book Bayesian Theory written by José M. Bernardo and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-09-25 with total page 608 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This highly acclaimed text, now available in paperback, provides a thorough account of key concepts and theoretical results, with particular emphasis on viewing statistical inference as a special case of decision theory. Information-theoretic concepts play a central role in the development of the theory, which provides, in particular, a detailed discussion of the problem of specification of so-called prior ignorance . The work is written from the authors s committed Bayesian perspective, but an overview of non-Bayesian theories is also provided, and each chapter contains a wide-ranging critical re-examination of controversial issues. The level of mathematics used is such that most material is accessible to readers with knowledge of advanced calculus. In particular, no knowledge of abstract measure theory is assumed, and the emphasis throughout is on statistical concepts rather than rigorous mathematics. The book will be an ideal source for all students and researchers in statistics, mathematics, decision analysis, economic and business studies, and all branches of science and engineering, who wish to further their understanding of Bayesian statistics

Download or read book Handbook of Simulation written by Jerry Banks and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1998-09-14 with total page 868 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dieses Buch ist eine unschätzbare Informationsquelle für alle Ingenieure, Designer, Manager und Techniker bei Entwicklung, Studium und Anwendung einer großen Vielzahl von Simulationstechniken. Es vereint die Arbeit internationaler Simulationsexperten aus Industrie und Forschung. Alle Aspekte der Simulation werden in diesem umfangreichen Nachschlagewerk abgedeckt. Der Leser wird vertraut gemacht mit den verschiedenen Techniken von Industriesimulationen sowie mit Einsatz, Anwendungen und Entwicklungen. Neueste Fortschritte wie z.B. objektorientierte Programmierung werden ebenso behandelt wie Richtlinien für den erfolgreichen Umgang mit simulationsgestützten Prozessen. Auch gibt es eine Liste mit den wichtigsten Vertriebs- und Zulieferadressen. (10/98)

Download or read book An Introduction to Reservoir Simulation Using MATLAB GNU Octave written by Knut-Andreas Lie and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-08-08 with total page 677 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presents numerical methods for reservoir simulation, with efficient implementation and examples using widely-used online open-source code, for researchers, professionals and advanced students. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.

Download or read book Discrete Convex Analysis written by Kazuo Murota and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2003-01-01 with total page 411 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discrete Convex Analysis is a novel paradigm for discrete optimization that combines the ideas in continuous optimization (convex analysis) and combinatorial optimization (matroid/submodular function theory) to establish a unified theoretical framework for nonlinear discrete optimization. The study of this theory is expanding with the development of efficient algorithms and applications to a number of diverse disciplines like matrix theory, operations research, and economics. This self-contained book is designed to provide a novel insight into optimization on discrete structures and should reveal unexpected links among different disciplines. It is the first and only English-language monograph on the theory and applications of discrete convex analysis.

Download or read book Principles of Statistical Inference written by D. R. Cox and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-08-10 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this definitive book, D. R. Cox gives a comprehensive and balanced appraisal of statistical inference. He develops the key concepts, describing and comparing the main ideas and controversies over foundational issues that have been keenly argued for more than two-hundred years. Continuing a sixty-year career of major contributions to statistical thought, no one is better placed to give this much-needed account of the field. An appendix gives a more personal assessment of the merits of different ideas. The content ranges from the traditional to the contemporary. While specific applications are not treated, the book is strongly motivated by applications across the sciences and associated technologies. The mathematics is kept as elementary as feasible, though previous knowledge of statistics is assumed. The book will be valued by every user or student of statistics who is serious about understanding the uncertainty inherent in conclusions from statistical analyses.

Download or read book Common Errors in Statistics and How to Avoid Them written by Phillip I. Good and published by Wiley. This book was released on 2009-10-06 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for the Second Edition "All statistics students and teachers will find in this book a friendly and intelligentguide to . . . applied statistics in practice." —Journal of Applied Statistics ". . . a very engaging and valuable book for all who use statistics in any setting." —CHOICE ". . . a concise guide to the basics of statistics, replete with examples . . . a valuablereference for more advanced statisticians as well." —MAA Reviews Now in its Third Edition, the highly readable Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them) continues to serve as a thorough and straightforward discussion of basic statistical methods, presentations, approaches, and modeling techniques. Further enriched with new examples and counterexamples from the latest research as well as added coverage of relevant topics, this new edition of the benchmark book addresses popular mistakes often made in data collection and provides an indispensable guide to accurate statistical analysis and reporting. The authors' emphasis on careful practice, combined with a focus on the development of solutions, reveals the true value of statistics when applied correctly in any area of research. The Third Edition has been considerably expanded and revised to include: A new chapter on data quality assessment A new chapter on correlated data An expanded chapter on data analysis covering categorical and ordinal data, continuous measurements, and time-to-event data, including sections on factorial and crossover designs Revamped exercises with a stronger emphasis on solutions An extended chapter on report preparation New sections on factor analysis as well as Poisson and negative binomial regression Providing valuable, up-to-date information in the same user-friendly format as its predecessor, Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them), Third Edition is an excellent book for students and professionals in industry, government, medicine, and the social sciences.

Download or read book Practical Guide To Chemometrics written by Paul Gemperline and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2006-04-16 with total page 555 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The limited coverage of data analysis and statistics offered in most undergraduate and graduate analytical chemistry courses is usually focused on practical aspects of univariate methods. Drawing in real-world examples, Practical Guide to Chemometrics, Second Edition offers an accessible introduction to application-oriented multivariate meth

Download or read book Fundamentals of Digital Manufacturing Science written by Zude Zhou and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-10-22 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The manufacturing industry will reap significant benefits from encouraging the development of digital manufacturing science and technology. Digital Manufacturing Science uses theorems, illustrations and tables to introduce the definition, theory architecture, main content, and key technologies of digital manufacturing science. Readers will be able to develop an in-depth understanding of the emergence and the development, the theoretical background, and the techniques and methods of digital manufacturing science. Furthermore, they will also be able to use the basic theories and key technologies described in Digital Manufacturing Science to solve practical engineering problems in modern manufacturing processes. Digital Manufacturing Science is aimed at advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students, academic researchers and researchers in the manufacturing industry. It allows readers to integrate the theories and technologies described with their own research works, and to propose new ideas and new methods to improve the theory and application of digital manufacturing science.

Download or read book Modern Issues and Methods in Biostatistics written by Mark Chang and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-07-15 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Classic biostatistics, a branch of statistical science, has as its main focus the applications of statistics in public health, the life sciences, and the pharmaceutical industry. Modern biostatistics, beyond just a simple application of statistics, is a confluence of statistics and knowledge of multiple intertwined fields. The application demands, the advancements in computer technology, and the rapid growth of life science data (e.g., genomics data) have promoted the formation of modern biostatistics. There are at least three characteristics of modern biostatistics: (1) in-depth engagement in the application fields that require penetration of knowledge across several fields, (2) high-level complexity of data because they are longitudinal, incomplete, or latent because they are heterogeneous due to a mixture of data or experiment types, because of high-dimensionality, which may make meaningful reduction impossible, or because of extremely small or large size; and (3) dynamics, the speed of development in methodology and analyses, has to match the fast growth of data with a constantly changing face. This book is written for researchers, biostatisticians/statisticians, and scientists who are interested in quantitative analyses. The goal is to introduce modern methods in biostatistics and help researchers and students quickly grasp key concepts and methods. Many methods can solve the same problem and many problems can be solved by the same method, which becomes apparent when those topics are discussed in this single volume.

Download or read book Bio Inspired Innovation and National Security written by National Defense University and published by NDU Press. This book was released on 2010-10 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite the vital importance of the emerging area of biotechnology and its role in defense planning and policymaking, no definitive book has been written on the topic for the defense policymaker, the military student, and the private-sector bioscientist interested in the "emerging opportunities market" of national security. This edited volume is intended to help close this gap and provide the necessary backdrop for thinking strategically about biology in defense planning and policymaking. This volume is about applications of the biological sciences, here called "biologically inspired innovations," to the military. Rather than treating biology as a series of threats to be dealt with, such innovations generally approach the biological sciences as a set of opportunities for the military to gain strategic advantage over adversaries. These opportunities range from looking at everything from genes to brains, from enhancing human performance to creating renewable energy, from sensing the environment around us to harnessing its power.