Download or read book The Use of Survey Data in Forecasting Business Fixed Investment written by Jane Haltmaier and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Investment Forecasting with Business Survey Data written by Leonardo D' Aurizio and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis written by John B. Guerard, Jr. and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-01-04 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on "earnings per share" (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.
Download or read book Handbook of Survey Based Business Cycle Analysis written by Georg Goldrian and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2007-01-01 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Handbook aims to provide an overview of regular survey activities, as well as to show how survey results can be used scientifically in the context of business-cycle analysis and forecasting. - Examples of various business surveys are described in detail, starting with their objectives, the questions they pose, how they are weighted and extrapolated and the representativeness of their results. A detailed scientific examination of the explanatory value of the data is also made in order to demonstrate their potential usefulness. The Handbook has three parts: firstly, it presents the importance of business surveys for empirical research. Secondly, selected surveys are introduced in detail such as the Ifo Business Survey and the Ifo Investment Survey, and thirdly, a broad spectrum of studies on the consequence of the survey results is presented. The significance of the surveys applied equally to business cycle analysis and to forecasting. An array of modern methods of time series analysis and econometric model construction is used in these investigations.
Download or read book Use of Survey Data for Industry Research and Economic Policy written by Karl Heinrich Oppenlander and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-02-06 with total page 632 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title was first published in 2000: This text offers a comprehensive collection of selected papers from the 24th Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET) conference. Areas selected include leading indicators and turning points, classifications of business cycles, survey data and policy decisions, attitudes and behaviour of firms, and economic forecasting. The text aims to be of interest to all those concerned with the use of business and consumer surveys in a global context.
Download or read book Psychological Surveys in Business Forecasting written by Irving Morrissett and published by . This book was released on 1957 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Modelling and Forecasting High Frequency Financial Data written by Stavros Degiannakis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-29 with total page 411 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global financial crisis has reopened discussion surrounding the use of appropriate theoretical financial frameworks to reflect the current economic climate. There is a need for more sophisticated analytical concepts which take into account current quantitative changes and unprecedented turbulence in the financial markets. This book provides a comprehensive guide to the quantitative analysis of high frequency financial data in the light of current events and contemporary issues, using the latest empirical research and theory. It highlights and explains the shortcomings of theoretical frameworks and provides an explanation of high-frequency theory, emphasising ways in which to critically apply this knowledge within a financial context. Modelling and Forecasting High Frequency Financial Data combines traditional and updated theories and applies them to real-world financial market situations. It will be a valuable and accessible resource for anyone wishing to understand quantitative analysis and modelling in current financial markets.
Download or read book Business and Investment Forecasting written by Ray Vance and published by . This book was released on 1922 with total page 146 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Financial Analysis Planning Forecasting written by Alice C. Lee and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2009 with total page 1134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: New Professor Cheng-Few Lee ranks #1 based on his publications in the 26 core finance journals, and #163 based on publications in the 7 leading finance journals (Source: Most Prolific Authors in the Finance Literature: 1959-2008 by Jean L Heck and Philip L Cooley (Saint Joseph's University and Trinity University). Based on the authors' extensive teaching, research and business experiences, this book reviews, discusses and integrates both theoretical and practical aspects of financial planning and forecasting. The book is divided into six parts: Information and Methodology for Financial Analysis, Alternative Finance Theories and Their Application, Capital Budgeting and Leasing Decisions, Corporate Policies and Their Interrelationships, Short-term Financial Decisions, Financial Planning and Forecasting, and Overview.The theories used in this book are pre-Modigliani-Miller Theorem, Modigliani-Miller Theorem, Capital Asset Pricing Model and Arbitrage Pricing Theory, and Option Pricing Theory. The interrelationships among these theories are carefully analyzed. Meaningful real-world examples of using these theories are discussed step-by-step, with relevant data and methodology. Alternative planning and forecasting models are also used to show how the interdisciplinary approach is helpful in making meaningful financial management decisions.
Download or read book Enhancing Survey based Investment Forecasts written by Ciaran Driver and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the accuracy of capital investment predictors from a national business survey of South African manufacturing. Based on data available to correspondents at the time of survey completion, we propose variables that might inform the confidence that can be attached to their predictions. Having calibrated the survey predictors' directional accuracy, we model the probability of a correct directional prediction using logistic regression with the proposed variables. For point forecasting, we compare the accuracy of rescaled survey forecasts with time series benchmarks and some survey/time series hybrid models. In addition, using the same set of variables, we model the magnitude of survey prediction errors. Directional forecast tests showed that three out of four survey predictors have value but are biased and inefficient. For shorter horizons we found that survey forecasts, enhanced by time series data, significantly improved point forecasting accuracy. For longer horizons the survey predictors were at least as accurate as alternatives. The usefulness of the more accurate of the predictors examined is enhanced by auxiliary information, namely the probability of directional accuracy and the estimated error magnitude.
Download or read book Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis written by John Guerard and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-01-03 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on "earnings per share" (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.
Download or read book The Book of Alternative Data written by Alexander Denev and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-07-21 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first and only book to systematically address methodologies and processes of leveraging non-traditional information sources in the context of investing and risk management Harnessing non-traditional data sources to generate alpha, analyze markets, and forecast risk is a subject of intense interest for financial professionals. A growing number of regularly-held conferences on alternative data are being established, complemented by an upsurge in new papers on the subject. Alternative data is starting to be steadily incorporated by conventional institutional investors and risk managers throughout the financial world. Methodologies to analyze and extract value from alternative data, guidance on how to source data and integrate data flows within existing systems is currently not treated in literature. Filling this significant gap in knowledge, The Book of Alternative Data is the first and only book to offer a coherent, systematic treatment of the subject. This groundbreaking volume provides readers with a roadmap for navigating the complexities of an array of alternative data sources, and delivers the appropriate techniques to analyze them. The authors—leading experts in financial modeling, machine learning, and quantitative research and analytics—employ a step-by-step approach to guide readers through the dense jungle of generated data. A first-of-its kind treatment of alternative data types, sources, and methodologies, this innovative book: Provides an integrated modeling approach to extract value from multiple types of datasets Treats the processes needed to make alternative data signals operational Helps investors and risk managers rethink how they engage with alternative datasets Features practical use case studies in many different financial markets and real-world techniques Describes how to avoid potential pitfalls and missteps in starting the alternative data journey Explains how to integrate information from different datasets to maximize informational value The Book of Alternative Data is an indispensable resource for anyone wishing to analyze or monetize different non-traditional datasets, including Chief Investment Officers, Chief Risk Officers, risk professionals, investment professionals, traders, economists, and machine learning developers and users.
Download or read book Expectations and Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Each quarter since 1968 the National Bureau of Economic Research, in collaboration with the American Statistical Association, has been collecting a large amount of information on the record of forecasting in the U. S. economy. This paper is a progress report on a comprehensive study of the distribution of individual predictions from these surveys. It covers forecasts of quarterly developments in the year ahead for six variables representing inflation, real growth, unemployment, percentage changes in GNP and spending on consumer durables, and business inventory investment. The 79 respondents who participated in at least 12 of the 42 surveys covered constitute a broadly based and diversified group of experts and agents, mostly from the world of corporate business and finance -- executives, analysts, economic consultants, also some government and academic forecasters. The data are in certain respects uniquely rich. The first part of the paper reviews briefly the models of economic expectations and discusses the potential and problems of using survey data for testing these models. The second part offers a comparative analysis of the individual prediction series from the NBER-ASA as well as some earlier surveys. There are gains from combining predictions from different sources, e.g., the group mean forecasts are on the average over time more accurate than most of the corresponding sets of individual forecasts or expectations. But there is also a moderate degree of consistency in the relative 2erformances of individual fore- casters, some of whom score well above average with respect to several variables and predictive horizons. The third section presents the distributions of an array of absolute accuracy measures for the survey respondents, regressions of actual on predicted values, and associated tests of bias and autocorrelation of error. The marginal forecast errors tend to increase, and the correlations between predictions and realizations tend to decrease, as the target quarter recedes into the future. The tests of the joint null hypothesis that the regressions have zero intercepts and unitary slope coefficients are very unfavorable to expectations of inflation, but they show the forecasts of the other variables generally in much better light. Inflation has been largely underestimated, with the predicted rates lagging behind the actual rates. On the other hand, real growth has been on the average overestimated. The incidence of autocorrelation in the prediction errors was also much higher for inflation than for the other variables. A summary of findings is provided. The fifth and last section lists some additional questions raised by this study, to be dealt with in another paper.
Download or read book Assessing the Business Outlook Survey Indicator Using Real time Data written by Lise Pichette and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Every quarter, the Bank of Canada conducts quarterly consultations with businesses across Canada, referred to as the Business Outlook Survey (BOS). A principal-component analysis conducted by Pichette and Rennison (2011) led to the development of the BOS indicator, which summarizes survey results and is used by the Bank as a gauge of overall business sentiment. In this paper, we examine whether data vintages matter when assessing the predictive content of the BOS indicator and individual BOS questions and whether the BOS is a better indicator of revised or unrevised macroeconomic data. As an indicator of business sentiment in the context of monetary policy, the reliability of the BOS is essential, and it is crucial to understand whether the signals it sends are best interpreted for early-released or revised data. For this purpose, we use different methods of forecasting that take into account the real-time perspective of the data. Results from the different methods show that the BOS content is informative regardless of data revisions. However, in real time, the BOS indicator and individual BOS questions are found to produce better nowcasts of first-released data or partially revised data than of latest-available data. This is particularly important in the case of growth in real business investment. In fact, because revisions to real business investment are more volatile than revisions to real gross domestic product (GDP), the choice of data vintages when assessing the ability of the BOS to forecast growth appears to be more important for real business investment than for real GDP"--Abstract, p. ii.
Download or read book Psychological Surveys in Business Forecasting written by Foundation for Research on Human Behavior and published by . This book was released on 1954 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Investment and Financial Forecasting written by Serkan Günes and published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2010-10 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision making process for business can be risky. Corporate decision makers have to make decisions to protect company's benefit and lower the risk. This book examines and analyzes the use of data mining techniques and Monte Carlo simulations as a forecasting tool. In order to evaluate data mining approach on forecasting, a tool, called IFF, was developed for evaluating and simulating forecasts. Specifically data mining techniques' and simulation's ability to predict, evaluate and validate Port Industry forecasts is tested. Accuracy is calculated with data mining methods. Finally the probability of user's and simulation model's confidentiality is calculated. The results of the research indicate that data mining approach on forecasting and Monte Carlo method have the capability to forecast on Port industry and, if properly analyzed, can give accurate results for forecasts.
Download or read book Business Cycle Analysis by Means of Economic Surveys written by Karl Heinrich Oppenländer and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 472 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A compilation of papers presented at the 20th conference in Budapest in October 1991 on the following topics: the use of business survey data for forecasting and structural analysis; micro-economic analysis; business survey data in econometric models; investment surveys; and more.
