Download or read book Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis written by John B. Guerard, Jr. and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-01-04 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on "earnings per share" (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.

Download or read book A Quick Start Guide to Financial Forecasting written by Philip Campbell and published by Grow and Succeed Publishing. This book was released on 2017-07-12 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Financial Analysis Planning And Forecasting Theory And Application Third Edition written by Cheng Few Lee and published by World Scientific Publishing Company. This book was released on 2016-08-10 with total page 1390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is an introduction-level text that reviews, discusses, and integrates both theoretical and practical corporate analysis and planning. The field can be divided into five parts: (1) Information and Methodology for Financial Analysis; (2) Alternative Finance Theories and Cost of Capital; (3) Capital Budgeting and Leasing Decisions; (4) Corporate Policies and their Interrelationships; (5) Financial Planning and Forecasting.The theories used and discussed in this book can be grouped into the following classical theoretical areas of corporate finance: (1) Pre-M&M Theory, (2) M&M Theory, (3) CAPM, and (4) Option Pricing Theory (OPT). The interrelationships among these theories are carefully analyzed. Real world examples are used to enrich the learning experience; and alternative planning and forecasting models are used to show how the interdisciplinary approach can be used to make meaningful financial-management decisions.In this third edition, we have extensively updated and expanded the topics of financial analysis, planning and forecasting. New chapters were added, and some chapters combined to present a holistic view of the subject and much of the data revised and updated.

Download or read book Financial Forecasting Analysis and Modelling written by Michael Samonas and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-01-20 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk analysis has become critical to modern financial planning Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling provides a complete framework of long-term financial forecasts in a practical and accessible way, helping finance professionals include uncertainty in their planning and budgeting process. With thorough coverage of financial statement simulation models and clear, concise implementation instruction, this book guides readers step-by-step through the entire projection plan development process. Readers learn the tools, techniques, and special considerations that increase accuracy and smooth the workflow, and develop a more robust analysis process that improves financial strategy. The companion website provides a complete operational model that can be customised to develop financial projections or a range of other key financial measures, giving readers an immediately-applicable tool to facilitate effective decision-making. In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the need for experienced financial modelling professionals has steadily increased as organisations rush to adjust to economic volatility and uncertainty. This book provides the deeper level of understanding needed to develop stronger financial planning, with techniques tailored to real-life situations. Develop long-term projection plans using Excel Use appropriate models to develop a more proactive strategy Apply risk and uncertainty projections more accurately Master the Excel Scenario Manager, Sensitivity Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation, and more Risk plays a larger role in financial planning than ever before, and possible outcomes must be measured before decisions are made. Uncertainty has become a critical component in financial planning, and accuracy demands it be used appropriately. With special focus on uncertainty in modelling and planning, Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling is a comprehensive guide to the mechanics of modern finance.

Download or read book Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis written by John Guerard and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-01-03 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on "earnings per share" (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.

Download or read book Advances in Financial Planning and Forecasting New Series Vol 6 written by Cheng F. Lee and published by Center for PBBEFR & Airiti Press. This book was released on 2015-01-01 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advances in Financial Planning and Froecasting (New Series) is an annual publication designed to disseminate developments in the area of financial analysis, planning, and forecasting. The publication is a froum for statistical, quantitative, and accounting analyses of issues in financial analysis and planning in terms of finance, accounting, and economic data.

Download or read book Forecasting Expected Returns in the Financial Markets written by Stephen Satchell and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2011-04-08 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting returns is as important as forecasting volatility in multiple areas of finance. This topic, essential to practitioners, is also studied by academics. In this new book, Dr Stephen Satchell brings together a collection of leading thinkers and practitioners from around the world who address this complex problem using the latest quantitative techniques. *Forecasting expected returns is an essential aspect of finance and highly technical *The first collection of papers to present new and developing techniques *International authors present both academic and practitioner perspectives

Download or read book Project Finance for Business Development written by John E. Triantis and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Raise the skill and competency level of project finance organizations Project Finance for Business Development helps readers understand how to develop a competitive advantage through project finance. Most importantly, it shows how different elements of project finance, such as opportunity screening and evaluation, project development, risk management, and due diligence come together to structure viable and financeable projects—which are crucial pieces missing from the current literature. Eliminating misconceptions about what is really important for successful project financings, this book shows you how to develop, structure, and implement projects successfully by creating competitive advantage. By shedding light on project finance failures, it also helps you avoid failures of your own. • Offers a roadmap for successful financing, participant roles and responsibilities, and assessing and testing project viability • Considers project finance from a broad business development and competitive advantage • Provides a strategic decision-forecasting perspective • Delves deeper than existing treatments of project finance into decisions needed to create and implement effective financing plans Helping readers develop, structure, and implement projects successfully by creating competitive advantage, this book is a useful tool for project sponsors and developers, helping them structure and implement projects by creating competitive advantage.

Download or read book Investment and Financial Forecasting written by Serkan Günes and published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2010-10 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision making process for business can be risky. Corporate decision makers have to make decisions to protect company's benefit and lower the risk. This book examines and analyzes the use of data mining techniques and Monte Carlo simulations as a forecasting tool. In order to evaluate data mining approach on forecasting, a tool, called IFF, was developed for evaluating and simulating forecasts. Specifically data mining techniques' and simulation's ability to predict, evaluate and validate Port Industry forecasts is tested. Accuracy is calculated with data mining methods. Finally the probability of user's and simulation model's confidentiality is calculated. The results of the research indicate that data mining approach on forecasting and Monte Carlo method have the capability to forecast on Port industry and, if properly analyzed, can give accurate results for forecasts.

Download or read book Financial Analysts Forecasts and Stock Recommendations written by Sundaresh Ramnath and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2008 with total page 125 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations reviews research related to the role of financial analysts in the allocation of resources in capital markets. The authors provide an organized look at the literature, with particular attention to important questions that remain open for further research. They focus research related to analysts' decision processes and the usefulness of their forecasts and stock recommendations. Some of the major surveys were published in the early 1990's and since then no less than 250 papers related to financial analysts have appeared in the nine major research journals that we used to launch our review of the literature. The research has evolved from descriptions of the statistical properties of analysts' forecasts to investigations of the incentives and decision processes that give rise to those properties. However, in spite of this broader focus, much of analysts' decision processes and the market's mechanism of drawing a useful consensus from the combination of individual analysts' decisions remain hidden in a black box. What do we know about the relevant valuation metrics and the mechanism by which analysts and investors translate forecasts into present equity values? What do we know about the heuristics relied upon by analysts and the market and the appropriateness of their use? Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations examines these and other questions and concludes by highlighting area for future research.

Download or read book Intelligent Systems and Financial Forecasting written by Jason Kingdon and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 233 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A fundamental objective of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the creation of in telligent computer programs. In more modest terms AI is simply con cerned with expanding the repertoire of computer applications into new domains and to new levels of efficiency. The motivation for this effort comes from many sources. At a practical level there is always a demand for achieving things in more efficient ways. Equally, there is the technical challenge of building programs that allow a machine to do something a machine has never done before. Both of these desires are contained within AI and both provide the inspirational force behind its development. In terms of satisfying both of these desires there can be no better example than machine learning. Machines that can learn have an in-built effi ciency. The same software can be applied in many applications and in many circumstances. The machine can adapt its behaviour so as to meet the demands of new, or changing, environments without the need for costly re-programming. In addition, a machine that can learn can be ap plied in new domains with the genuine potential for innovation. In this sense a machine that can learn can be applied in areas where little is known about possible causal relationships, and even in circumstances where causal relationships are judged not to exist. This last aspect is of major significance when considering machine learning as applied to fi nancial forecasting.

Download or read book Financial Forecasting Analysis and Modelling written by Michael Samonas and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-01-14 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk analysis has become critical to modern financial planning Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling provides a complete framework of long-term financial forecasts in a practical and accessible way, helping finance professionals include uncertainty in their planning and budgeting process. With thorough coverage of financial statement simulation models and clear, concise implementation instruction, this book guides readers step-by-step through the entire projection plan development process. Readers learn the tools, techniques, and special considerations that increase accuracy and smooth the workflow, and develop a more robust analysis process that improves financial strategy. The companion website provides a complete operational model that can be customised to develop financial projections or a range of other key financial measures, giving readers an immediately-applicable tool to facilitate effective decision-making. In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the need for experienced financial modelling professionals has steadily increased as organisations rush to adjust to economic volatility and uncertainty. This book provides the deeper level of understanding needed to develop stronger financial planning, with techniques tailored to real-life situations. Develop long-term projection plans using Excel Use appropriate models to develop a more proactive strategy Apply risk and uncertainty projections more accurately Master the Excel Scenario Manager, Sensitivity Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation, and more Risk plays a larger role in financial planning than ever before, and possible outcomes must be measured before decisions are made. Uncertainty has become a critical component in financial planning, and accuracy demands it be used appropriately. With special focus on uncertainty in modelling and planning, Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling is a comprehensive guide to the mechanics of modern finance.

Download or read book Valuation And Financial Forecasting A Handbook For Academics And Practitioners written by Ben Sopranzetti and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2024-01-03 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Valuation and Financial Forecasting is a clearly written and easy to understand handbook intended to help readers of all skill levels accurately forecast financial statements, analyze capital investments, and value business enterprises. The book's approach transcends the traditional textbook discussion of business valuation by providing readers with deep insights into the nexus between financial forecasting and business valuation. The book is written with a high degree of academic rigor; yet, it is still understandable and easy to use for both novices and experts. The goal of this handbook is to help readers, irrespective of their level of expertise, perform more accurate valuations and make better informed investment-related decisions.

Download or read book Ordinary Shares Exotic Methods written by Francis E. H. Tay and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2003 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exotic methods refer to specific functions within general soft computing methods such as genetic algorithms, neural networks and rough sets theory. They are applied to ordinary shares for a variety of financial purposes, such as portfolio selection and optimization, classification of market states, forecasting of market states and data mining. This is in contrast to the wide spectrum of work done on exotic financial instruments, wherein advanced mathematics is used to construct financial instruments for hedging risks and for investment.In this book, particular aspects of the general method are used to create interesting applications. For instance, genetic niching produces a family of portfolios for the trader to choose from. Support vector machines, a special form of neural networks, forecast the financial markets; such a forecast is on market states, of which there are three OCo uptrending, mean reverting and downtrending. A self-organizing map displays in a vivid manner the states of the market. Rough sets with a new discretization method extract information from stock prices."

Download or read book A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility written by Ser-Huang Poon and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-08-19 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial market volatility forecasting is one of today's most important areas of expertise for professionals and academics in investment, option pricing, and financial market regulation. While many books address financial market modelling, no single book is devoted primarily to the exploration of volatility forecasting and the practical use of forecasting models. A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility provides practical guidance on this vital topic through an in-depth examination of a range of popular forecasting models. Details are provided on proven techniques for building volatility models, with guide-lines for actually using them in forecasting applications.

Download or read book Handbook of Financial Analysis Forecasting Modeling written by Jae K. Shim and published by Prentice Hall. This book was released on 1988 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ready-to-use forecasting and modeling tools to read the future under any given set of assumptions. Manipulate variables such as revenues, expenses, cash flow and earnings while improving the quality of decision-making and reduces risk of error.

Download or read book Incorporating Macro Financial Linkages into Forecasts Using Financial Conditions Indices The Case of France written by Ms.Piyabha Kongsamut and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can information on financial conditions be used to better understand macroeconomic developments and improve macroeconomic projections? We investigate this question for France by constructing country-specific financial conditions indices (FCIs) that are tailored to movements in GDP, investment, private consumption and exports respectively. We rely on a VAR approach to estimate the weights of the financial components of each FCI, including equity market returns (which turn out having a relatively strong weight across all FCIs), private sector risk premiums, long-term interest rates, and banks’ credit standards. We find that the tailored FCIs are useful as leading indicators of GDP, investment, and exports, and as a contemporaneous indicator of private consumption. Credit volumes turn out to be lagging indicators of growth. The indices inform us on macro-financial linkages in France and are used to improve the accuracy of quarterly forecasting models and high-frequency “nowcast” models. We show that FCI-augmented models could have significantly improved forecasts during and after the global financial crisis.