Download or read book International Trade Spillovers from Domestic COVID 19 Lockdowns written by Mr. Shekhar Aiyar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-06-17 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While standard demand factors perform well in predicting historical trade patterns, they fail conspicuously in 2020, when pandemic-specific factors played a key role above and beyond demand. Prediction errors from a multilateral import demand model in 2020 vary systematically with the health preparedness of trade partners, suggesting that pandemic-response policies have international spillovers. Bilateral product-level data covering about 95 percent of global goods trade reveals sizable negative international spillovers to trade from supply disruptions due to domestic lockdowns. These international spillovers accounted for up to 60 percent of the observed decline in trade in the early phase of the pandemic, but their effect was shortlived, concentrated among goods produced in key global value chains, and mitigated by the availability of remote working and the size of the fiscal response to the pandemic.

Download or read book Supply Spillovers During the Pandemic Evidence from High Frequency Shipping Data written by Diego A. Cerdeiro and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2020-12-18 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: World trade contracted dramatically during the global economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Disruptions in international supply chains were widely reported as governments imposed containment measures (lockdowns) to halt the spread of the disease. At the same time, demand declined as households and firms scaled back spending. This paper attempts to disentangle the supply and demand channels in trade by quantifying the causal effect of supply spillovers from lockdowns. We utilize a novel dataset of daily bilateral seaborne trade, and design a shift-share identification strategy that leverages geography-induced cargo delivery lags to track the transmission of supply disruptions across space. We find strong but short-lived supply spillovers of lockdowns through international trade. Moreover, the evidence is suggestive of the downstream propagation of countries’ lockdowns through global supply chains.

Download or read book The Great Lockdown International Risk Sharing Through Trade and Policy Coordination written by Philipp Engler and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2020-11-13 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Voluntary and government-mandated lockdowns in response to COVID-19 have caused causing drastic reductions in economic activity around the world. We present a parsimonious two-country-SIR model with some degree of substitutability between home and foreign goods, and show that trading partners’ asynchronous entries into the global pandemic induce mutual welfare gains from trade. Those gains are realized through exchange rate adjustments that cause a temporary reallocation of production towards the economy with the lowest infection rate at any point in time. We show that international cooperation over containment policies that aim at optimizing global welfare further enhances the ability of countries to exploit trade opportunities to contain the spread of the pandemic. We characterize the Nash game of strategic choices of containment policies as a prisoners’ dilemma.

Download or read book Cars in Europe Supply Chains and Spillovers During COVID 19 Times written by Vizhdan Boranova and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-01-14 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cars in Europe: Supply Chains and Spillovers during COVID-19 Times

Download or read book COVID 19 and Emerging Markets written by Cem Çakmaklı and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy by calibrating a SIR-multi-sector-macro model to Turkey. Sectoral supply shocks are based on the proximity requirements in each sector and the ability to work from home. Physical proximity determines the supply shock through its effect on infection rates. Sectoral demand shocks incorporate domestic and foreign demand, both of which adjust with infection rates. We calibrate demand shocks during COVID-19 using real-time credit card purchase data. Our results show that the optimal policy, which yields the lowest economic cost and saves the maximum number of lives, can be achieved under a full lockdown of 39 days. Economic costs are much larger for an open economy as the shocks are amplified through the international production network. A decline in foreign demand leads to losses in domestic sectors through international input-output linkages, accounting for a third of the total output loss. In addition, the reduction in capital flows deprives the network from its trade financing needs, where sectors with larger external finance needs experience larger losses. The policy options are limited given sparse fiscal resources to fight the pandemic domestically, while serving the external debt. We present historical evidence from 2001 crisis of Turkey, when fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies were employed altogether to deal with a triple crisis of balance of payments, banking, and sovereign debt

Download or read book After Effects of the COVID 19 Pandemic Prospects for Medium Term Economic Damage written by Mr. Philip Barrett and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-07-30 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe global recession with differential impacts within and across countries. This paper examines the possible persistent effects (scarring) of the pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. History suggests that deep recessions often leave long-lived scars, particularly to productivity. Importantly, financial instabilities—typically associated with worse scarring—have been largely avoided in the current crisis so far. While medium-term output losses are anticipated to be lower than after the global financial crisis, they are still expected to be substantial. The degree of expected scarring varies across countries, depending on the structure of economies and the size of the policy response. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to suffer more scarring than advanced economies.

Download or read book Impact of the Covid 19 Pandemic on Trade and Development written by United Nations Publications and published by . This book was released on 2021-03-31 with total page 115 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The report fosters understanding of the impact of COVID-19 (coronavirus) on trade and development and reflects on actions that can propel us to the future we want. It provides up-to-date data and analysis on the impact of COVID-19 on trade and development; identifies sustained trends to characterize the "new normal"; and provides policy recommendations to build a more resilient, inclusive and sustainable future.

Download or read book Navigating COVID 19 in Asia and the Pacific written by Bambang Susantono and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2020-09-01 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has unleashed unparalleled challenges. At the same time, it offers a window to rethink Asia’s most fundamental development policies and strategies to address inequality, socioeconomic vulnerability, and environmental challenges. This publication gathers blogs and short policy pieces contributed by ADB staff and experts in an attempt to tackle immediate challenges and prepare for what may lie beyond the horizon. It covers a broad range of development challenges and highlights the crucial role of rapid adoption of digital technologies, adequate supply of quality infrastructure, disaster risk management, and strengthening regional cooperation for a resilient and sustainable future by shaping post-pandemic conditions.

Download or read book Policy Advice to Asia in the COVID 19 Era written by Changyong Rhee and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-03-05 with total page 105 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Asia-Pacific region was the first to be hit by the COVID-19 pandemic; it put a strain on its people and economies, and policymaking became exceptionally difficult. This departmental paper contains the assessment of the key challenges facing Asia at this critical juncture and policy advice to the region both to address the current challenges and to build the foundations for a more sustainable and inclusive future. The paper focuses on (1) adjusting to the COVID-19 shock, (2) using unconventional policies when policy space is limited, (3) dealing with debt, and (4) helping the vulnerable and greening the recovery. The paper first presents the different ways countries are adjusting to the COVID-19 shock.

Download or read book The Economic Effects of COVID 19 Containment Measures written by Pragyan Deb and published by . This book was released on 2020-08-07 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Containment measures are crucial to halt the spread of the 2019 COVID-19 pandemic but entail large short-term economic costs. This paper tries to quantify these effects using daily global data on real-time containment measures and indicators of economic activity such as Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) emissions, flights, energy consumption, maritime trade, and mobility indices. Results suggest that containment measures have had, on average, a very large impact on economic activity--equivalent to a loss of about 15 percent in industrial production over a 30-day period following their implementation. Using novel data on fiscal and monetary policy measures used in response to the crisis, we find that these policy measures were effective in mitigating some of these economic costs. We also find that while workplace closures and stay-at-home orders are more effective in curbing infections, they are associated with the largest economic costs. Finally, while easing of containment measures has led to a pickup in economic activity, the effect has been lower (in absolute value) than that from the tightening of measures.

Download or read book Economic Policy for a Pandemic Age written by Monica de Bolle and published by Peterson Institute for International Economics. This book was released on 2021-04-05 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global health and economic threats from the COVID-19 pandemic are not yet behind us. While the development of multiple safe and highly effective vaccines in less than a year is cause for hope, several significant dangers to recovery of global health and income are still clear and present: New concerning variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, continue to emerge at an alarming rate in different parts of the world; at the same time, vaccine rollouts have been shockingly inefficient even in some rich countries, while much of the developing world waits in line behind them for vaccines to arrive. The Briefing covers several policy areas in which cooperative forward-looking policy action will materially improve our chances of truly escaping today's pandemic and making future pandemics less costly.

Download or read book Women Business and the Law 2021 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-04-05 with total page 381 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Women, Business and the Law 2021 is the seventh in a series of annual studies measuring the laws and regulations that affect women’s economic opportunity in 190 economies. The project presents eight indicators structured around women’s interactions with the law as they move through their lives and careers: Mobility, Workplace, Pay, Marriage, Parenthood, Entrepreneurship, Assets, and Pension. This year’s report updates all indicators as of October 1, 2020 and builds evidence of the links between legal gender equality and women’s economic inclusion. By examining the economic decisions women make throughout their working lives, as well as the pace of reform over the past 50 years, Women, Business and the Law 2021 makes an important contribution to research and policy discussions about the state of women’s economic empowerment. Prepared during a global pandemic that threatens progress toward gender equality, this edition also includes important findings on government responses to COVID-19 and pilot research related to childcare and women’s access to justice.

Download or read book Global Value Chain Development Report 2021 written by Banque asiatique de développement and published by . This book was released on 2022-01-25 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A radical shift is underway in global value chains as they increasingly move beyond traditional manufacturing processes to services and other intangible assets. Digitization is a leading factor in this transformation, which is being accelerated by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The Global Value Chain Development Report, the third of a biennial series, explores this shift beyond production. The report shows how the rise of services value chains offers a new path to development and how protectionism and geopolitical tensions, environmental risks, and pandemics are undermining the stability of global value chains and forcing their reorganization geographically. It is co-published by the WTO, the Asian Development Bank, the Research Institute for Global Value Chains at the University of International Business and Economics, the Institute of Developing Economies, and the China Development Research Foundation.

Download or read book Global Economic Prospects June 2021 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-08-03 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.

Download or read book The Collapse of Global Trade Murky Protectionism and the Crisis written by Richard E. Baldwin and published by . This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global financial crisis of 2008/9 is the Great Depression of the 21st century. For many though, the similarities stop at the Wall Street Crash as the current generation of policymakers have acted quickly to avoid the mistakes of the past. Yet the global crisis has made room for mistakes all of its own. While governments have apparently kept to their word on refraining from protectionist measures in the style of 1930s tariffs, there has been a disturbing rise in "murky protectionism." Seemingly benign, these crisis-linked policies are twisted to favour domestic firms, workers and investors. This book, first published as an eBook on VoxEU.org in March 2009, brings together leading trade policy practitioners and experts - including Australian Trade Minister Simon Crean and former Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo. Initially its aim was to advise policymakers heading in to the G20 meeting in London, but since the threat of murky protectionism persists, so too do their warnings.

Download or read book The Effects of COVID 19 Vaccines on Economic Activity written by Mr. Pragyan Deb and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-19 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper empirically examines the economic effects of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts using a cross-country daily database of vaccinations and high frequency indicators of economic activity—nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions, carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, and Google mobility indices—for a sample of 46 countries over the period December 16, 2020 to June 20, 2021. Using surprises in vaccines administered, we find that an unexpected increase in vaccination per capita is associated with a significant increase in economic activity. We also find evidence for non-linear effects of vaccines, with the marginal economic benefits being larger when vaccination rates are higher. Country-specific conditions play an important role, with lower economic gains if strict containment measures are in place or if the country is experiencing a severe outbreak. Finally, the results provide evidence of spillovers across borders, highlighting the importance of equitable access to vaccines across nations.

Download or read book COVID 19 and International Development written by Elissaios Papyrakis and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-01-13 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The current coronavirus pandemic fundamentally reshapes existing debates and processes in international development. The unprecedented (and rapidly evolving) crisis is generating a number of substantial challenges for developing economies. Governments in low-income nations often find it extremely hard to cope with the increased demand for health services, make prompt decisions and put them into action, protect vulnerable segments of society and offer immediate relief to affected economic sectors. This book provides a series of reflective chapters that demonstrate how several areas of international development have been severely affected by the Covid-19 outbreak. It provides an in-depth critical discussion on how the current pandemic influences several development outcomes (in the domains of poverty/inequality, health, education, migration, formal/informal employment, (de)globalisation, the extractive sector, climate change, water and the global financial system). Each chapter draws policy recommendations on relevant interventions that can alleviate the identified negative repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic, especially for the most vulnerable communities in the Global South.