Download or read book International Medium term Business Cycles written by and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Foreign driven medium-term oscillations that originate from fluctuations in technological frontier countries gained widespread attention among policymakers. To study this phenomenon in the context of domestic and other foreign drivers of the euro area business cycle, we develop a medium-scale, two-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with endogenous growth and estimate it with Bayesian methods for the United States and the euro area for the period from 1984:Q1 to 2017:Q4. The framework suggests that foreign shocks can be a substantial source of medium-term oscillations that contribute to pro-cyclicality of real GDP across countries. Notably, US shocks to liquidity preference and trade demand explain more than a third of the euro area downturn during the Great Recession.
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Download or read book Medium term business cycles in developing countries written by Diego Comin and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Economic Cycles Crises and the Global Periphery written by Leonid Grinin and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-10-25 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thought-provoking monograph analyzes long- medium- and short-term global cycles of prosperity, recession, and depression, plotting them against centuries of important world events. Major research on economic and political cycles is integrated to clarify evolving relationships between the global center and its periphery as well as current worldwide economic upheavals and potential future developments. Central to this survey are successive waves of industrial and, later, technological and cybernetic progress, leading to the current era of globalization and the changes of the roles of both Western powers and former minors players, however that will lead to the formation of the world order without a hegemon. Additionally, the authors predict what they term the Great Convergence, the lessening of inequities between the global core and the rest of the world, including the wealth gap between First and Third World nations. Among the topics in this ambitious volume: · Why politics is often omitted from economic analysis. · Why economic cycles are crucial to understanding the modern geopolitical landscape. · How the aging of the developed world will affect world technological and economic future.“/p> · The evolving technological forecast for Global North and South. · Where the U.S. is likely to stand on the future world stage. Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery will inspire discussion and debate among sociologists, global economists, demographers, global historians, and futurologists. This expert knowledge is necessary for further research, proactive response, and preparedness for a new age of sociopolitical change.
Download or read book Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries written by Diego A. Comin and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Empirical evidence - including the current global crisis - suggests that shocks from advanced countries often have a disproportionate effect on developing economies. Can this account for the fact that aggregate fluctuations are larger and more persistent in the latter than in the former economies? And what are the mechanisms at play? This paper addresses these questions using a model of an industrial and a developing economy trading goods and assets, with (i) a product cycle shaping the range of intermediate goods used to produce new capital in each country, and (ii) investment adjustment costs in the developing economy. Innovation by the advanced economy results in new intermediate goods, at first produced at home, and eventually transferred to the developing economy through direct investment. The pace of innovation and technology transfer is driven by profitability. This process of technology diffusion creates a medium-term connection between both economies, over and above the short-term link through trade. Calibration of the model to match Mexico-United States trade and foreign direct investment flows shows that this mechanism can explain why shocks to the United States economy have a larger effect on Mexico than on the United States itself, and hence why Mexico shows higher volatility than the United States; why business cycles in the United States lead to medium-term fluctuations in Mexico; and why consumption is not less volatile than output in Mexico.
Download or read book Some International Aspects of the Business Cycle written by Hans Neisser and published by . This book was released on 2012-04-01 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Industrial Research Department Wharton School Of Finance And Commerce, University Of Pennsylvania, Research Studies, V31.
Download or read book Medium Term Business Cycles written by Diego Comin and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the postwar, the U.S., Europe and Japan have experienced what may be thought of as medium frequency oscillations between persistent periods of robust growth and persistent periods of relative stagnation. These medium frequency movements, further, appear to bear some relation to the high frequency volatility of output. That is, periods of stagnation are often associated with significant recessions, while persistent booms typically are either free of recessions or are interrupted only by very modest downturns. In this paper we explore the idea of medium term cycles, which we define as reflecting the sum of the high and medium frequency variation in the data. We develop a methodology for identifying these kinds of fluctuations and then show that a number of important macroeconomic time series exhibit significant medium term cycles. The cycles feature strong procyclical movements in both disembodied and embodied technological change, research & development, and the efficiency of resource utilization. We then develop a model to explain the medium term cycle that features both disembodied and embodied endogenous technological change, along with countercyclical markups and variable factor utilization. The model is able to generate medium term fluctuations in output, technological change, and resource utilization that resemble the data, with a non-technological shock as the exogenous disturbance. In particular the model offers a unified approach to explaining both high and medium frequency variation in aggregate business activity
Download or read book The American Business Cycle written by Robert J. Gordon and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 882 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.
Download or read book The Austrian Business Cycle in the European Context written by Marcus Scheiblecker and published by Peter Lang. This book was released on 2008 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dating business cycle turning points is still an important task for economic policy decisions. This study does this for the Austrian economy for the period between 1976 and 2005, using only quarterly national accounts data of Austria, Germany and the euro area. Three different filtering methods are applied: first-order differences, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, and the Baxter-King filter. To all of them, two different methods of determining the business cycle are applied: the ad-hoc determination of the business cycle and a dynamic factor model, taking into account the common variations of Austria, the euro area and the German business cycle movements. The results of both methods are dated by the Bry-Boschan algorithm in order to locate peaks and troughs of the cycle. The results are interpreted and compared to already exiting studies on the euro area and the Austrian business cycle.
Download or read book What Prevents a Real Business Cycle Model from Matching the U S Data Decomposing the Labor Wedge written by Dmitry Plotnikov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-09-08 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I carry out a business cycle accounting exercise (Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan, 2007) on the U.S. data measured in wage units (Farmer (2010)) for the entire postwar period. In contrast to a conventional approach, this approach preserves common medium-term business cycle fluctuations in GDP, its components and the unemployment rate. Additionally, it facilitates decomposition of the labor wedge into the labor supply and the labor demand wedges. Using this business cycle accounting methodology, I find that in the transformed data, most movements in GDP are accounted for by the labor supply wedge. Therefore, I reverse a key finding of the real business cycle literature which asserts that 70% or more of economic fluctuations can be explained by TFP shocks. In other words, the real business cycle model fits the data badly because the assumption that households are on their labor supply equation is flawed. This failure is masked by data that has been filtered with a conventional approach that removes fluctuations at medium frequencies. My findings are consistent with the literature on incomplete labor markets.
Download or read book Open Economy Macroeconomics written by Martín Uribe and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-04-04 with total page 646 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A cutting-edge graduate-level textbook on the macroeconomics of international trade Combining theoretical models and data in ways unimaginable just a few years ago, open economy macroeconomics has experienced enormous growth over the past several decades. This rigorous and self-contained textbook brings graduate students, scholars, and policymakers to the research frontier and provides the tools and context necessary for new research and policy proposals. Martín Uribe and Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé factor in the discipline's latest developments, including major theoretical advances in incorporating financial and nominal frictions into microfounded dynamic models of the open economy, the availability of macro- and microdata for emerging and developed countries, and a revolution in the tools available to simulate and estimate dynamic stochastic models. The authors begin with a canonical general equilibrium model of an open economy and then build levels of complexity through the coverage of important topics such as international business-cycle analysis, financial frictions as drivers and transmitters of business cycles and global crises, sovereign default, pecuniary externalities, involuntary unemployment, optimal macroprudential policy, and the role of nominal rigidities in shaping optimal exchange-rate policy. Based on courses taught at several universities, Open Economy Macroeconomics is an essential resource for students, researchers, and practitioners. Detailed exploration of international business-cycle analysis Coverage of financial frictions as drivers and transmitters of business cycles and global crises Extensive investigation of nominal rigidities and their role in shaping optimal exchange-rate policy Other topics include fixed exchange-rate regimes, involuntary unemployment, optimal macroprudential policy, and sovereign default and debt sustainability Chapters include exercises and replication codes
Download or read book What Happens During Business Cycles written by Wesley Clair Mitchell and published by . This book was released on 1951 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Lars Tvede and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-05-26 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During our lifetime we experience any number of business cycle crises which undermine our confidence and lead many to their ruin. We also experience the ‘happy days’ when our faith in the future becomes almost limitless, and when we forget that tides always turn again. So how can we better understand and predict these cycles? To answer these questions Lars Tvede takes us through a story that moves back in time to the Scottish gambler and financial genius, John Law, and then on to the distracted Adam Smith, the stockbroker Ricardo, the investment banker Thornton, the extrovert Schumpeter, the speculator Gould and many others to trace the theory and reality of business cycles, as it has evolved over 300 years. Gradually we reach the computer jugglers of the modern day who, with giant networks of equations, try to solve the same questions that have attracted the attention of classical economists throughout the centuries. Lars Tvede concludes this historical journey with a summary of what the core of the problem is and how modern understanding of business cycles can be used to forecast economic fluctuations. The final sections of the book provide detailed studies and explanations to of how stocks, bonds, hedge funds, private equity funds, gold, diamonds, exchange rates, real estate, commodities, art and collectibles, and numerous sub-sectors of some of these markets each behave over different categories of business cycles.
Download or read book The Leading Economic Indicators and Business Cycles in the United States written by John B. Guerard and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-07-06 with total page 666 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a time of unprecedented economic uncertainty, this book provides empirical guidance to the economy and what to expect in the near and distant future. Beginning with a historic look at major contributions to economic indicators and business cycles starting with Wesley Clair Mitchell (1913) to Burns and Mitchell (1946), to Moore (1961) and Zarnowitz (1992), this book explores time series forecasting and economic cycles, which are currently maintained and enhanced by The Conference Board. Given their highly statistically significant relationship with GDP and the unemployment rate, these relationships are particularly useful for practitioners to help predict business cycles.
Download or read book Growth Cycles written by George W. Evans and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We construct a rational expectations model in which aggregate growth alternates between a low growth and a high growth state. When all agents expect growth to be slow, the returns on investment are low, and little investment takes place. This slows growth and confirms the prediction that the returns on investment will be low. But if agents expect fast growth, investment is high, returns are high, and growth is rapid. This expectational indeterminacy is induced by complementarity between different types of capital goods. In a growth cycle there are stochastic shifts between high and low growth states and agents take full account of these transitions. The rules that agents need to form rational expectations in this equilibrium are simple. The equilibrium with growth cycles is stable under the dynamics implied by a correspondingly simple learning rule.
Download or read book International Financial Transactions and Business Cycles written by Oskar Morgenstern and published by . This book was released on 1959 with total page 658 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Swedish Business Cycle written by John Hassler and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
