Download or read book Global Business Cycles written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-06-01 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.

Download or read book EMU Financial Markets and the World Economy written by Thomas Moser and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001 with total page 342 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) is an event of historic proportions with far-reaching implications in the years to come. The essays in this collection provide an analysis of several theoretical and policy issues associated with these implications. They are organized under four broad issues. Firstly, the likely consequences of the euro for the international monetary system is analyzed, and its role as an international currency and the level and long-run volatility of its rate of exchange against other major currencies is explored. Secondly, the potential long-run impact of the EMU on European capital markets, diversification opportunities, and the analytical framework for equity and fixed income analysts are explored. Thirdly, macroeconomic policy issues resulting from the institutional design of EMU are investigated. Finally, the possible impact of EMU on countries outside the euro area is discussed, particularly on countries in Central and Eastern Europe, in the Mediterranean basin, in Africa, and in the Middle East.

Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Download or read book Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness written by Francis X. Diebold and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2015-02-03 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Connections among different assets, asset classes, portfolios, and the stocks of individual institutions are critical in examining financial markets. Interest in financial markets implies interest in underlying macroeconomic fundamentals. In Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness, Frank Diebold and Kamil Yilmaz propose a simple framework for defining, measuring, and monitoring connectedness, which is central to finance and macroeconomics. These measures of connectedness are theoretically rigorous yet empirically relevant. The approach to connectedness proposed by the authors is intimately related to the familiar econometric notion of variance decomposition. The full set of variance decompositions from vector auto-regressions produces the core of the 'connectedness table.' The connectedness table makes clear how one can begin with the most disaggregated pair-wise directional connectedness measures and aggregate them in various ways to obtain total connectedness measures. The authors also show that variance decompositions define weighted, directed networks, so that these proposed connectedness measures are intimately related to key measures of connectedness used in the network literature. After describing their methods in the first part of the book, the authors proceed to characterize daily return and volatility connectedness across major asset (stock, bond, foreign exchange and commodity) markets as well as the financial institutions within the U.S. and across countries since late 1990s. These specific measures of volatility connectedness show that stock markets played a critical role in spreading the volatility shocks from the U.S. to other countries. Furthermore, while the return connectedness across stock markets increased gradually over time the volatility connectedness measures were subject to significant jumps during major crisis events. This book examines not only financial connectedness, but also real fundamental connectedness. In particular, the authors show that global business cycle connectedness is economically significant and time-varying, that the U.S. has disproportionately high connectedness to others, and that pairwise country connectedness is inversely related to bilateral trade surpluses.

Download or read book Doing Business 2020 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-11-21 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seventeen in a series of annual reports comparing business regulation in 190 economies, Doing Business 2020 measures aspects of regulation affecting 10 areas of everyday business activity.

Download or read book Dynamic Factor Models written by Jörg Breitung and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book International Business Cycles G7 and OECD Countries written by Marcelle Chauvet and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2009-05 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The globalization of markets has sparked a worldwide interest in using economic indicators to analyze cyclical fluctuations. Governments and the private sector could benefit from internat. indicators that serve as a warning system to detect recessions in major economic partners and in industrialized countries as whole. This article constructs just such a warning system. The authors construct business cycle indicators for G7 countries and for an aggregate measure of output by 29 member countries of the OECD. The model yields probabilities of the current bus. cycle phase for each G7 country and for the aggregate OECD and G7 output measures and reveals a common cycle underlying the OECD countries that characterizes an internat. bus. cycle.

Download or read book Economic Policy in Switzerland written by Phillippe Bacchetta and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-07-27 with total page 293 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Switzerland is at the centre of Europe, but is not part of the European Union. Its specific policy concerns are often less known than for other countries but might offer an alternative model to integration. This collection from some of the best academic economists in Switzerland covers monetary economics, competition, health care, environmental and housing policies, as well as aspects related to unemployment insurance, gender discrimination, poverty, and privatization to provide a comprehensive survey of the Swiss economy.

Download or read book Business Cycles written by Lars Tvede and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-02-01 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why do we experience business cycles? What creates them? Is it mass psychology, or phenomena in the management of business? Are the banks to blame or should we be looking to the unions and the politicians? Lars Tvede's story moves back in time to the Scottish gambler and financial genius, John Law, and then on to the distracted Adam Smith, the stockbroker Ricardo, the investment banker Thornton, the extrovert Schumpeter, the speculator Jay Gould and many others. The computer jugglers of the modern day, with giant networks of equations, try to solve the same questions that have attracted the attention of classical economists throughout the centuries. Throughout this volume, business cycle theories are used to explain actual events. Theoretical thinking has reflected the economist's own experiences of hyper-inflations, depressions, speculation orgies and liquidity squeezes. The reader can follow the narrative to discover how economists often thought that problems had been solved until new data changed the economic picture once again.

Download or read book The Long Shadow of Informality written by Franziska Ohnsorge and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2022-02-09 with total page 397 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A large percentage of workers and firms operate in the informal economy, outside the line of sight of governments in emerging market and developing economies. This may hold back the recovery in these economies from the deep recessions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic--unless governments adopt a broad set of policies to address the challenges of widespread informality. This study is the first comprehensive analysis of the extent of informality and its implications for a durable economic recovery and for long-term development. It finds that pervasive informality is associated with significantly weaker economic outcomes--including lower government resources to combat recessions, lower per capita incomes, greater poverty, less financial development, and weaker investment and productivity.

Download or read book What Happens During Recessions Crunches and Busts written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-12-01 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide a comprehensive empirical characterization of the linkages between key macroeconomic and financial variables around business and financial cycles for 21 OECD countries over the period 1960–2007. In particular, we analyze the implications of 122 recessions, 112 (28) credit contraction (crunch) episodes, 114 (28) episodes of house price declines (busts), 234 (58) episodes of equity price declines (busts) and their various overlaps in these countries over the sample period. Our results indicate that interactions between macroeconomic and financial variables can play major roles in determining the severity and duration of recessions. Specifically, we find evidence that recessions associated with credit crunches and house price busts tend to be deeper and longer than other recessions. JEL Classification Numbers: E32; E44; E51; F42

Download or read book International Business Cycles written by Morten Overgaard Ravn and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A Swiss Foreign Policy for the 21st Century written by Thomas Bernauer and published by NZZ Libro. This book was released on 2022-09-30 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Switzerland is facing critical foreign policy challenges. Its relationship with the EU is still unsettled, the geopolitical landscape is changing rapidly, and technological innovation brings additional dynamics into play. This book provides a forward-looking guide for all those concerned with Swiss foreign policy issues, and an overview of Swiss foreign policy along its key areas. It deals, for example, with foreign trade, international financial markets, migration, environmental policy, humanitarian cooperation, and peace promotion and security policy. The contributions are written by academics and practicioners. They shed light on the respective global or regional context in which Switzerland's foreign policy operates, and analyze achievements, challenges, opportunities, and risks as well as potential ways forward. Published on behalf of the Swiss Society for Foreign Policy. With forewords by Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis and National Councilor Christa Markwalder, President of the Swiss Society for Foreign Policy, and contributions by: Thomas Bernauer, Fritz Brugger, Aymo Brunetti, Gilles Carbonnier, Francis Cheneval, Cedric Dupont, Katja Gentinetta, Isabel Gunther, Paula Hoffmeyer-Zlotnik, Joelle Kuntz, Sandra Lavenex, Philipp Lutz, Matthias Oesch, Pascal Sciarini, Charlotte Sieber-Gasser, Cedric Tille, Andreas Wenger, Achim Wennmann, Sacha Zala. The German version of «A Swiss Foreign Policy for the 21st Century» is available as «Eine Aussenpolitik für die Schweiz im 21. Jahrhundert».

Download or read book Business Cycles written by Lars Tvede and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-05-26 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During our lifetime we experience any number of business cycle crises which undermine our confidence and lead many to their ruin. We also experience the ‘happy days’ when our faith in the future becomes almost limitless, and when we forget that tides always turn again. So how can we better understand and predict these cycles? To answer these questions Lars Tvede takes us through a story that moves back in time to the Scottish gambler and financial genius, John Law, and then on to the distracted Adam Smith, the stockbroker Ricardo, the investment banker Thornton, the extrovert Schumpeter, the speculator Gould and many others to trace the theory and reality of business cycles, as it has evolved over 300 years. Gradually we reach the computer jugglers of the modern day who, with giant networks of equations, try to solve the same questions that have attracted the attention of classical economists throughout the centuries. Lars Tvede concludes this historical journey with a summary of what the core of the problem is and how modern understanding of business cycles can be used to forecast economic fluctuations. The final sections of the book provide detailed studies and explanations to of how stocks, bonds, hedge funds, private equity funds, gold, diamonds, exchange rates, real estate, commodities, art and collectibles, and numerous sub-sectors of some of these markets each behave over different categories of business cycles.

Download or read book Business Cycles The problem and its setting written by Wesley Clair Mitchell and published by . This book was released on 1927 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Political Business Cycles written by Thomas D. Willett and published by Duke University Press. This book was released on 1988 with total page 554 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "A Pacific Research Institute for Public Policy book." Includes bibliographies and index.

Download or read book Frontiers of Business Cycle Research written by Thomas F. Cooley and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2020-09-01 with total page 442 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Among the most revolutionary and productive areas of economic research over the last two decades, modern business cycle theory is finally made accessible to students and professionals in this rigorous, unified, introductory volume. This theory starts with the view that growth and fluctuations are not distinct phenomena to be studied separately--and that business cycles result from shocks (such as the availability of new technologies), which regularly affect most economies. The unifying theme of this book is the use of the neoclassical growth framework to study the economic fluctuations associated with the business cycle. Presenting recent advances in dynamic economic theory and computational methods--with emphasis on the construction of equilibrium paths for simple artificial economies--leading experts orient readers in the quantitative study of aggregate fluctuations and apply its concepts to key issues in macroeconomics and business cycle theory. This volume covers such issues as the aggregate labor market, the role of the household sector, the role of money, the behavior of asset markets, non-Walrasian economies, monopolistically competitive economies, international business cycles, and the design of economic policies. The contributors are David Backus, V. V. Chari, Lawrence Christiano, Thomas F. Cooley, Jean-Pierre Danthine, John Donaldson, Jeremy Greenwood, Gary D. Hansen, Patrick Kehoe, Finn Kydland, Edward C. Prescott, Richard Rogerson, Julio Rotemberg, Geert Rouwenhorst, José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, Michael Woodford, and Randall Wright.