Download or read book Instability and Volatility of Economic Growth Under Transition written by Natasha Trajkova and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of this thesis is to explore growth processes in transition economies (TEs) by analysing differences between growth patterns in the course of transition and the smooth growth paths characteristic of developed market economies. Accordingly, the thesis builds upon the neoclassical growth theory 10 the transition context to develop a modified theoretical model that conceptualizes transition as a non~linear process consisting of three distinct stages or regimes of growth: the crash or adjustment stage; the recovery stage; and the take~off stage. Namely, instead of describing transition as a movement along one steady state linear growth path, this new approach depicts transition as a process of radical adjournments or shifts between growth paths caused by big structural changes in the economy. This theoretical model is tested not only informally against the observed growth patterns under transition, but also through a series of econometric investigations: (1) Perron's procedure for testing for structural breaks in the presence of a unit root in the data series; (2) a univariate Markov Switching Model (MSM) for assessing (a) whether or not the different hypothesized regimes exist in the data an~ (b) if different growth regimes do exist, both the instability between and volatility within growth regimes; and (3), a multivariate MS VAR model estimated as a small vector autoregression that repeats the univariate MSM investigation into growth regimes but conditional on both physical and human capital variables. The empirical evidence supports the concept of non~linear growth characterised by structural changes and regime shifts. In particular, the univariate MS analysis suggests that most TEs (19 from 26) have passed through all three regimes or stages of transition, with variations across groups in terms of the recorded mean GDP growth rates and the volatility in each regime. Conversely, the multivariate analysis brings forward a somewhat different depiction. Namely, although generally confirming the idea of instability and volatility, the MS VAR analysis suggests that only an elite "few", the five most developed TEs, now EU members have managed to pass through all three stages of transition, as identified in our theoretical model. They can be regarded as having completed their journey by becoming developed market economies In contrast; all the others recorded only two distinct regimes. This result is consistent with our theoretical model in identifying three main stages or growth regimes in the transition process. Finally, the thesis appraises a new notion of transition as a process of dramatic non ~ linear changes that require correspondingly bold policies, particularly if the third regime leading to the developed market economy status is to be attained. Although this thesis does not prescribe specific policy recommendations, it does provide a particular perspective for policymaking, namely one oriented to long-run supply-side reforms.
Download or read book How Does Political Instability Affect Economic Growth written by Mr.Ari Aisen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-01-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this paper is to empirically determine the effects of political instability on economic growth. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models on a sample covering up to 169 countries, and 5-year periods from 1960 to 2004, we find that higher degrees of political instability are associated with lower growth rates of GDP per capita. Regarding the channels of transmission, we find that political instability adversely affects growth by lowering the rates of productivity growth and, to a smaller degree, physical and human capital accumulation. Finally, economic freedom and ethnic homogeneity are beneficial to growth, while democracy may have a small negative effect.
Download or read book The Political Dimension of Economic Growth written by Silvio Borner and published by Springer. This book was released on 1998-04-12 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The state and its institutions are crucial for economic development: for better and for worse. This insight informs this important, up-to-date and authoritative survey of new trends in growth economics and the widely divergent economic performance of developing countries - for example, between Latin America and South-east Asia - which seemed to be similarly placed just a generation ago. The decisive role of the political dimension in economic growth seems clear but there are many challenges to be met in getting an analytical handle on the precise determinants and in testing empirically for this. This is the challenge taken up by the international team of contributors.
Download or read book Handbook on Energy and Economic Growth written by Mohamed Arouri and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2024-07-05 with total page 495 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This comprehensive Handbook examines the links between energy, the economy, and the environment. Esteemed international experts explore the ways in which energy contributes to economic growth, particularly in the context of geopolitical uncertainties.
Download or read book Nber Macroeconomics Annual 1993 written by Olivier Blanchard and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1993 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This annual is designed to stimulate research on problems in applied economics, to bring frontier theoretical developments to a wider audience, and to accelerate the interaction between analytical and empirical research in macroeconomics
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Download or read book Stabilizing an Unstable Economy written by Hyman P. Minsky and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2008-05-01 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Mr. Minsky long argued markets were crisis prone. His 'moment' has arrived.” -The Wall Street Journal In his seminal work, Minsky presents his groundbreaking financial theory of investment, one that is startlingly relevant today. He explains why the American economy has experienced periods of debilitating inflation, rising unemployment, and marked slowdowns-and why the economy is now undergoing a credit crisis that he foresaw. Stabilizing an Unstable Economy covers: The natural inclination of complex, capitalist economies toward instability Booms and busts as unavoidable results of high-risk lending practices “Speculative finance” and its effect on investment and asset prices Government's role in bolstering consumption during times of high unemployment The need to increase Federal Reserve oversight of banks Henry Kaufman, president, Henry Kaufman & Company, Inc., places Minsky's prescient ideas in the context of today's financial markets and institutions in a fascinating new preface. Two of Minsky's colleagues, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Ph.D. and president, The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, and L. Randall Wray, Ph.D. and a senior scholar at the Institute, also weigh in on Minsky's present relevance in today's economic scene in a new introduction. A surge of interest in and respect for Hyman Minsky's ideas pervades Wall Street, as top economic thinkers and financial writers have started using the phrase “Minsky moment” to describe America's turbulent economy. There has never been a more appropriate time to read this classic of economic theory.
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Download or read book Economic Growth Transition and Globalization in China written by Yanrui Wu and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2006-01-01 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book addresses a number of important topics and issues associated with China's economic transition, growth and global integration. The chapters, by a distinguished group of scholars, provide a timely assessment of recent developments in the Chinese economy. The authors employ contemporary economic theory and the latest statistics to analyze the sources and spillover effects of China's growth, to investigate the relationship between growth and business cycle, and to shed light on China's growth prospects in the coming decade. In the context of growth, transition and globalization, the chapters also cover issues such as labour economics, urban efficiency, banking and macroeconomic management. Economic Growth, Transition and Globalization in China is a highly focused and unique work of direct policy relevance and is aimed at an international audience. It is an invaluable combination of rigorous theoretical work and empirical material. This timely book should be an important reference for researchers and students of Asian studies, and the Chinese economy, in particular. It will also appeal to business analysts.
Download or read book Globalization and Poverty written by Ann Harrison and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 674 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past two decades, the percentage of the world’s population living on less than a dollar a day has been cut in half. How much of that improvement is because of—or in spite of—globalization? While anti-globalization activists mount loud critiques and the media report breathlessly on globalization’s perils and promises, economists have largely remained silent, in part because of an entrenched institutional divide between those who study poverty and those who study trade and finance. Globalization and Poverty bridges that gap, bringing together experts on both international trade and poverty to provide a detailed view of the effects of globalization on the poor in developing nations, answering such questions as: Do lower import tariffs improve the lives of the poor? Has increased financial integration led to more or less poverty? How have the poor fared during various currency crises? Does food aid hurt or help the poor? Poverty, the contributors show here, has been used as a popular and convenient catchphrase by parties on both sides of the globalization debate to further their respective arguments. Globalization and Poverty provides the more nuanced understanding necessary to move that debate beyond the slogans.
Download or read book Sustaining Long Run Growth and Macroeconomic Stability in Low Income Countries The Role of Structural Transformation and Diversification Background Notes written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-03 with total page 107 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NULL
Download or read book Second Food Security Measurement and Research Conference written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Economic Growth in the 1990s written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report was prepared by a team led by Roberto Zagha, under the general direction of Gobind Nankani.
Download or read book Sustaining Long Run Growth and Macroeconomic Stability in Low Income Countries The Role of Structural Transformation and Diversification written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-03 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Diversification and structural transformation play important roles in influencing the macroeconomic performance of low-income countries (LICs). Increases in income per capita at early stages of development are typically accompanied by a transformation in a country’s production and export structure. This can include diversification into new products and trading partners as well as increases in the quality of existing products.
Download or read book The Economics of World War I written by Stephen Broadberry and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-09-29 with total page 363 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This unique volume offers a definitive new history of European economies at war from 1914 to 1918. It studies how European economies mobilised for war, how existing economic institutions stood up under the strain, how economic development influenced outcomes and how wartime experience influenced post-war economic growth. Leading international experts provide the first systematic comparison of economies at war between 1914 and 1918 based on the best available data for Britain, Germany, France, Russia, the USA, Italy, Turkey, Austria-Hungary and the Netherlands. The editors' overview draws some stark lessons about the role of economic development, the importance of markets and the damage done by nationalism and protectionism. A companion volume to the acclaimed The Economics of World War II, this is a major contribution to our understanding of total war.
Download or read book When Democracies Collapse written by Luca Tomini and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-10-24 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While the process of democratization is nowadays an established scholarship, the reverse process of de-democratization has generated less attention even when the regression or even breakdown of democracy occurred on a regular basis over past decades. This book investigates both the different combination of explanatory factors triggering the transition from democratic rule as well as the role of the actors’ involved in the process. It aims to integrate different levels of analysis and explanatory factors through a comparative analysis of the phenomenon since the beginning of the third wave of democratization. As such, it addresses the existing divide between the approaches focused on the conditions and those focused on the processes of change, using a mixed-method research design. This text will be of key interest to scholars and students of comparative politics, democracy, democratization and de-democratization, political theory, and comparative political institutions.
Download or read book OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook 2021 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2021-05-20 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edition of the OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook reviews developments in response to the COVID-19 pandemic for government borrowing needs, funding conditions and funding strategies in the OECD area.
