Download or read book Information in the Term Structure of Yield Curve Volatility written by Anna Cieslak and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We decompose conditional volatilities of US Treasury yields into components due to short-rate expectations and term premia. To this end, we propose a novel no-arbitrage model which we estimate with extensive second-moment data. Short-rate expectations become more volatile than premia before recessions and during asset market distress. The correlation between shocks to premia and expectations is close to zero on average and varies with stance of monetary policy. While Treasuries are nearly unexposed to variance shocks, investors pay a large premium for hedging variance risk with derivatives. We illustrate the distinct dynamics of those yield volatility components during and after the financial crisis.
Download or read book Yield Curve Dynamics written by Anne Lundgaard Hansen and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Interest rates vary with time horizons. This relationship, known as the term structure of interest rates or the yield curve, contains information about market expectations on future interest rates, inflation, and economic activity; risk attitudes; and recession probabilities. Understanding yield curve dynamics is thus crucial for monetary policy makers and investors to respond appropriately to fluctuations in financial markets and the economy. This thesis addresses key challenges for modeling and interpreting yield curve dynamics. Through three self-contained chapters, I present new methodologies and empirical insights related to the time-series properties of bond yields, risk factors in bond markets, and implications for monetary policy.
Download or read book Modelling and forecasting stock return volatility and the term structure of interest rates written by Michiel de Pooter and published by Rozenberg Publishers. This book was released on 2007 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation consists of a collection of studies on two areas in quantitative finance: asset return volatility and the term structure of interest rates. The first part of this dissertation offers contributions to the literature on how to test for sudden changes in unconditional volatility, on modelling realized volatility and on the choice of optimal sampling frequencies for intraday returns. The emphasis in the second part of this dissertation is on the term structure of interest rates.
Download or read book An Integrated Model for the Term and Volatility Structures of Interest Rates written by Ren-Raw Chen and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we present a model for the term structure of interest rates, which integrates the existing multifactor and time dependent approaches of term structure models. This integrated model uses the time series data so that it has macroeconomic implications such as interest rate volatility and mean reversion. It also uses the cross sectional data so that it fits the yield curve and the volatility curve. In contrast to other multifactor time dependent models, this model is easy to implement. It has closed form solutions for discount bonds as well as their European claims. For American claims, the lattice model can be constructed as easily as a fixed parameter model. The fitting of the volatility curve and the fitting of the yield curve are separable in the model. The capability of combining both time series and cross sectional information in a computationally tractable framework is the main contribution of this model.
Download or read book Yield Curve Factors Term Structure Volatility and Bond Risk Premia written by Nikolaus Hautsch and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Term Structure of Interest Rates Yield Curve Residuals and the Consistent Pricing of Interest Rate Derivatives written by Massoud Heidari and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dynamic term structure models price interest rate options based on the model-implied fair values of the yield curve, ignoring any pricing residuals on the yield curve that are either from model approximations or market imperfections. In contrast, option pricing in practice often takes the market observed yield curve as given and focuses exclusively on the specification of the volatility structure of forward rates. Thus, if any errors exist on the observed yield curve, they will be carried over permanently. In this paper, we propose an m+n model structure that bridges the gap between the two approaches and consistently prices both interest rates and interest rate options. The first m factors capture the systematic movement of the yield curve, whereas the latter n factors capture the impacts of the yield curve residuals on option pricing. We estimate a 3+3 Gaussian affine example using eight years of data on U.S. dollar LIBOR, swap rates, and interest rate caps. The model performs well in pricing both interest rates and interest rate caps. Furthermore, estimation shows that small residuals on the yield curve can have large impacts on pricing interest rate caps. Under the estimated model, the three yield curve factors explain over 99 percent of the variation on the yield curve, but account for less than 50 percent of the variation on cap implied volatilities. Incorporating the three residual factors improves the explained variance on cap implied volatility to over 99 percent.
Download or read book Endogenous Capital Utilization and Productivity Measurement in Dynamic Factor Demand Models written by and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Stochastic Volatility Model and Inference for the Term Structure of Interest Rates written by Peng Liu and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis builds a stochastic volatility model for the term structure of interest rates, which is also known as the dynamics of the yield curve. The main purpose of the model is to propose a parsimonious and plausible approach to capture some characteristics that conform to some empirical evidence and conventions. Eventually, the development reaches a class of multivariate stochastic volatility models, which is flexible, extensible, providing the existence of an inexpensive inference approach.
Download or read book Modelling the Yield Curve written by Mr.Mark P. Taylor and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-12-01 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We test and estimate a variety of alternative models of the yield curve, using weekly, high-quality U.K. data. We extend the Campbell-Shiller technique to the overlapping data case and apply it to reject the pure expectations hypothesis under rational expectations. We also find that risk measures, in the form of conditional interest rate volatility, are unable to explain the term premium. A simple, market segmentation approach is, however, moderately successful in explaining the term premium.
Download or read book The U S Term Structure and Return Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets written by Riza Demirer and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the predictive power of the U.S. term structure over return volatility in emerging stock markets. Decomposing the term structure of U.S. Treasury yields into two components, the expectations factor and the maturity premium, we show that the U.S. term structure indeed contains predictive information over emerging stock market volatility, even after controlling for country specific factors including turnover and market size. While we observe heterogeneous patterns across emerging markets in terms of their predictability with respect to the U.S. term structure, we find that the market's expectation of future short term rates, implied by the expectations factor, serves as a stronger predictor of stock market volatility compared to the maturity premium component of the yield spread. We also find that the U.S. term structure has gained further predictive value following the global financial crisis, particularly for the BRICS nations of China, Russia, and S. Africa. Overall, our findings suggest that policymakers and investors can utilize interest rate signals from the U.S. Treasury yields to make projections over stock market volatility in their local markets, however, distinguishing between the two components of the yield curve could provide additional forecasting power depending on the country of focus.
Download or read book Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting written by Francis X. Diebold and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-15 with total page 223 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks, including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating portfolios, structuring fiscal debt, conducting monetary policy, and valuing capital goods. Unfortunately, most yield curve models tend to be theoretically rigorous but empirically disappointing, or empirically successful but theoretically lacking. In this book, Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch propose two extensions of the classic yield curve model of Nelson and Siegel that are both theoretically rigorous and empirically successful. The first extension is the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model (DNS), while the second takes this dynamic version and makes it arbitrage-free (AFNS). Diebold and Rudebusch show how these two models are just slightly different implementations of a single unified approach to dynamic yield curve modeling and forecasting. They emphasize both descriptive and efficient-markets aspects, they pay special attention to the links between the yield curve and macroeconomic fundamentals, and they show why DNS and AFNS are likely to remain of lasting appeal even as alternative arbitrage-free models are developed. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting contains essential tools with enhanced utility for academics, central banks, governments, and industry.
Download or read book Time Varying Volatility and the Dynamic Behavior of the Term Structure written by Victor K. Ng and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we consider a framework with which the cross sectional and time series behavior of the yield curve can be studied simultaneously. We examine the relationship between the yield curve and the time-varying conditional volatility of the Treasury bill market. We demonstrate that differently shaped yield curves can result given different combinations of volatility and expectations about future spot rates. Moreover, adjusting the forward rate for the volatility related liquidity premium can improve its performance as a predictor of future spot rates at least for the period from August 1964 to August 1979.
Download or read book Yield Curve Fitting with Term Structure Models written by Javier F. Navas and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the fitting of the euro yield curve with the Longstaff and Schwartz (1992) (LS) two - factor general equilibrium model and the Schaefer and Schwartz (1984) (SS) two-factor arbitrage model of the term structure of interest rates. The Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985b) (CIR) one-factor model is also studied as a reference. LS use the short - term interest rate and the volatility of the short-term interest rate as state variables, while SS use the spread between the short-term and the long - term interest rate and the long-term interest rate. Thus, the LS model should perform better (worse) than the SS model in pricing short-term (long - term) securities. Moreover, since the CIR model can be nested into the LS model, we expect the latter model to perform better than the former.The results show that, as expected, the LS model is best adjusting to the short - term yields. Surprisingly, the CIR model is best fitting to long - term yields. In any case, the three models have difficulties matching both the entire yield curve and the term structure of volatilities.
Download or read book Empirical Dynamic Asset Pricing written by Kenneth J. Singleton and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2009-12-13 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written by one of the leading experts in the field, this book focuses on the interplay between model specification, data collection, and econometric testing of dynamic asset pricing models. The first several chapters provide an in-depth treatment of the econometric methods used in analyzing financial time-series models. The remainder explores the goodness-of-fit of preference-based and no-arbitrage models of equity returns and the term structure of interest rates; equity and fixed-income derivatives prices; and the prices of defaultable securities. Singleton addresses the restrictions on the joint distributions of asset returns and other economic variables implied by dynamic asset pricing models, as well as the interplay between model formulation and the choice of econometric estimation strategy. For each pricing problem, he provides a comprehensive overview of the empirical evidence on goodness-of-fit, with tables and graphs that facilitate critical assessment of the current state of the relevant literatures. As an added feature, Singleton includes throughout the book interesting tidbits of new research. These range from empirical results (not reported elsewhere, or updated from Singleton's previous papers) to new observations about model specification and new econometric methods for testing models. Clear and comprehensive, the book will appeal to researchers at financial institutions as well as advanced students of economics and finance, mathematics, and science.
Download or read book Do Bonds Span Volatility Risk in the U S Treasury Market written by Torben Gustav Andersen and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate whether bonds span the volatility risk in the U.S. Treasury market, as predicted by most 'affine' term structure models. To this end, we construct powerful and model-free empirical measures of the quadratic yield variation for a cross-section of fixed-maturity zero-coupon bonds ("realized yield volatility") through the use of high-frequency data. We find that the yield curve fails to span yield volatility, as the systematic volatility factors are largely unrelated to the cross-section of yields. We conclude that a broad class of affine diffusive, Gaussian-quadratic and affine jump-diffusive models is incapable of accommodating the observed yield volatility dynamics. An important implication is that the bond markets per se are incomplete and yield volatility risk cannot be hedged by taking positions solely in the Treasury bond market. We also advocate using the empirical realized yield volatility measures more broadly as a basis for specification testing and (parametric) model selection within the term structure literature.
Download or read book Term Structure and Volatility written by Ruslan Bikbov and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We evaluate the ability of several affine models to explain the term structure of the interest rates and option prices. Since the key distinguishing characteristic of the affine models is the specification of conditional volatility of the factors, we explore models which have critical differences in this respect: Gaussian (constant volatility), stochastic volatility, and unspanned stochastic volatility models. We estimate the models based on the Eurodollar futures and options data. We find that both Gaussian and stochastic volatility models, despite the differences in the specifications, do a great job matching the conditional mean and volatility of the term structure. When these models are estimated using options data, their properties change, and they are more successful in pricing options and matching higher moments of the term structure distribution. The unspanned stochastic volatility (USV) model fails to resolve the tension between the futures and options fits. Unresolved tension in the fits points to additional factors or, even more likely, jumps, as ways to improve the performance of the models. Our results indicate that Gaussian and stochastic volatility models cannot be distinguished based on the yield curve dynamics alone. Options data are helpful in identifying the differences. In particular, Gaussian models cannot explain the relationship between implied volatilities and the term structure observed in the data.
Download or read book Yield Factor Volatility Models written by Christophe Perignon and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The term structure of interest rates is often summarized using a handful of yield factors that capture shifts in the shape of the yield curve. In this paper, we develop a comprehensive model for volatility dynamics in the level, slope, and curvature of the yield curve that simultaneously includes level and GARCH effects along with regime shifts. We show that the level of the short rate is useful in modeling the volatility of the three yield factors and that there are significant GARCH effects present even after including a level effect. Further, we find that allowing for regime shifts in the factor volatilities dramatically improves the model's fit and strengthens the level effect. We also show that a regime-switching model with level and GARCH effects provides the best out-of-sample forecasting performance of yield volatility. We argue that the auxiliary models often used to estimate term structure models with simulation-based estimation techniques should be consistent with the main features of the yield curve that are identified by our model.
