Download or read book Influence of Climatic Oscillations on Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Energy written by Dicky Armstrong and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tropical Cyclones form in 4 independent regions of the Indian Ocean Basin ranging from the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, Western South Indian, and Eastern South Indian Ocean. These cyclones lead to distinct patterns in their Accumulated Cyclone Energy for their particular region. The goal of this research article is to examine how the larger scale climate oscillations including ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole, and the Subtropical Indian Dipole of the Indian Ocean influence both the patterns in Tropical Cyclone Energy as well as the patterns in the large scale atmosphere of each of the aforementioned sub regions during high ACE events and lower ACE events. This analysis was done using linear regression techniques and appears to reveal the main influence on both ACE and the larger scale atmosphere of the basin is the phases, both warm (El Ni©ło) and cold (La Ni©ła), of the El Ni©ło Southern Oscillation. This is especially true for the northern half of the basin with El Nino leading to higher shear, which is the main weather variable that has an impact on lowering ACE. The other Oscillations appear to have some impact through the placement of their warm pools in the southern portion of the region.

Download or read book Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change written by Yassine Charabi and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-01-19 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tropical cyclones are topic that is not appropriately known to the public at large, but climate change has been on the public’s mind since the last decade and a concern that has peaked in the new millennium. Like the television programs of Jean Yves Cousteau the ‘plight of the oceans’, have recent documentaries nurtured a conscio- ness that major climatological changes are in the offing, even have started to develop. The retreat of glaciers on mountain tops and in Polar Regions is ‘being seen’ on ‘the small screen’ and has favored an environmental awareness in all populations that are enjoying an average well-being on Planet Earth. The vivid images on screen of storms, floods, and tsunamis share the fear provoking landscapes of deforestation, desertification and the like. Watching such as this one is seen are voices warning of what over is ‘in store’ if the causative problems are not remedied. Talking and d- cussing are useful, but action must follow. Understanding the full ramifications of climate change on tropical cyclones is a task that will takes several decades. In Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) a high probability of major changes in tropical cyclone activity across the various ocean basins is highlighted.

Download or read book El Ni o Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate written by Michael J. McPhaden and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-11-24 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth’s most dominant year-to-year climate variation The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change. Volume highlights include: Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting Future projections of ENSO and its impacts Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals. Find out more about this book from this Q&A with the editors.

Download or read book Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change written by U.C. Mohanty and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-10-12 with total page 435 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals with recent advances in our understanding and prediction of tropical cyclogenesis, intensification and movement as well as landfall processes like heavy rainfall, gale wind and storm surge based on the latest observational and numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling platforms. It also includes tropical cyclone (TC) management issues like early warning systems, recent high impact TC events, disaster preparedness, assessment of risk and vulnerability including construction, archiving and retrieval of the best tracking and historical data sets, policy decision etc., in view of recent findings on climate change aspects and their impact on TC activity. The chapters are authored by leading experts, both from research and operational environments. This book is relevant to cyclone forecasters and researchers, managers, policy makers, graduate and undergraduate students. It intends to stimulate thinking and hence further research in the field of TCs and climate change, especially over the Indian Ocean region and provides high-quality reference materials for all the users mentioned above for the management of TCs over this region.

Download or read book A Literature Review Effect of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclones written by Kopal Arora and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2014-06-11 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Essay from the year 2011 in the subject Geography / Earth Science - Meteorology, Aeronomy, Climatology, grade: 11.0, University of Exeter, language: English, abstract: Since tropical cyclones(TCs) are one of the major geophysical cause of loss of life and property, it is important to understand if there is any change in the frequency and intensity of TCs due to anthropogenic climate change. IPCC considers 0.25-0.5 C increase in warming over tropical oceans over the past few decades due to increase in greenhouse gas concentration over past 50years. During 6th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones, a statement was released on the connection between the TCs and anthropogenic climate change. The statement was in response to the increase in number of recent high-impact TC events which includes, 10 land falling Tcs in Japan in 2004, 5 TCs affecting the Cook island in a five week period during 2005, cyclone Gafilo in Madagascar in 2004, cyclone Larry in Australia in 2006, typhoon Saomai in China in 2006, and violently active Atlantic TC season during the period of 2004 to 2005, including the catastrophic socioeconomic impact of Hurricane Katrina. A few recent articles [1] have noted a large increase in TC’s intensity, frequency and wind-speeds in some regions during past 5 decades, which could be attributed to the increase in the concentration of green house gases in past 50years. However, other studies explain this noticed increase as a result of better observations made and instruments used, making it easier to detect TCs. Consensus statement by the International workshop on TC-6 reported uncertain conclusions about the influence of climate change on TC after taking into account evidence both for and against. It was concluded that no TC could be solely attributed to the anthropogenic climate change. Model and theory predicts 3-5% increase in wind speed per degree C increase in SST. But, there is inconsistency between the small change in wind speed projected by theory and modelling versus large variations reported by some observational studies. Significant limitation of measurements over some regions make detection of trends difficult. It was suggested that if increase in SST continues, susceptibility to TC storm surge flooding would strengthen.

Download or read book Climate Variability and Tropical Cyclone Activity written by Pao-Shin Chu and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-03-10 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a comprehensive summary of research on tropical cyclone variability at various time scales, from intraseasonal and interannual to interdecadal and centennial. It covers the fundamental theory, statistics and numerical modelling techniques used when considering climate variability in relation to tropical cyclone activity. Major climate oscillations including the Madden-Julian, El Niño, Atlantic Meridional Mode, and Pacific Decadal oscillations are covered, and their impacts on tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans are discussed. Hurricane landfalls in the United States, Caribbean and East Asia are also considered. Climate models and numerical simulations are used to show how prediction models of tropical cyclones are developed, while looking to the future, particular attention is paid to predicting how tropical cyclones will change in response to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. This book ideal for researchers and practitioners in atmospheric science, climatology, oceanography and civil and environmental engineering.

Download or read book Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change written by Yassine Charabi and published by Springer. This book was released on 2010-11-04 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tropical cyclones are topic that is not appropriately known to the public at large, but climate change has been on the public’s mind since the last decade and a concern that has peaked in the new millennium. Like the television programs of Jean Yves Cousteau the ‘plight of the oceans’, have recent documentaries nurtured a conscio- ness that major climatological changes are in the offing, even have started to develop. The retreat of glaciers on mountain tops and in Polar Regions is ‘being seen’ on ‘the small screen’ and has favored an environmental awareness in all populations that are enjoying an average well-being on Planet Earth. The vivid images on screen of storms, floods, and tsunamis share the fear provoking landscapes of deforestation, desertification and the like. Watching such as this one is seen are voices warning of what over is ‘in store’ if the causative problems are not remedied. Talking and d- cussing are useful, but action must follow. Understanding the full ramifications of climate change on tropical cyclones is a task that will takes several decades. In Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) a high probability of major changes in tropical cyclone activity across the various ocean basins is highlighted.

Download or read book Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region written by R. Krishnan and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-06-12 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book discusses the impact of human-induced global climate change on the regional climate and monsoons of the Indian subcontinent, adjoining Indian Ocean and the Himalayas. It documents the regional climate change projections based on the climate models used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and climate change modeling studies using the IITM Earth System Model (ESM) and CORDEX South Asia datasets. The IPCC assessment reports, published every 6–7 years, constitute important reference materials for major policy decisions on climate change, adaptation, and mitigation. While the IPCC assessment reports largely provide a global perspective on climate change, the focus on regional climate change aspects is considerably limited. The effects of climate change over the Indian subcontinent involve complex physical processes on different space and time scales, especially given that the mean climate of this region is generally shaped by the Indian monsoon and the unique high-elevation geographical features such as the Himalayas, the Western Ghats, the Tibetan Plateau and the adjoining Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, and Bay of Bengal. This book also presents policy relevant information based on robust scientific analysis and assessments of the observed and projected future climate change over the Indian region.

Download or read book Current Topics in Tropical Cyclone Research written by Anthony Lupo and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2020-11-04 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book highlights some of the most recent research in the climatological behavior of tropical cyclones as well as the dynamics, predictability, and character of these storms as derived using remote sensing techniques. Also included in this book is a review of the interaction between tropical cyclones and coastal ocean dynamics in the Northwest Pacific and an evaluation of the performance of CMIP6 models in replicating the current climate using accumulated cyclone energy. The latter demonstrates how the climate may change in the future. This book can be a useful resource for those studying the character of these storms, especially those with the goal of anticipating their future occurrence in both the short and climatological range and their associated hazards.

Download or read book The Indian Ocean Dipole s Influence on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity written by Alan Joseph Marinaro and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 87 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Improving early tropical cyclone forecasts would assist reinsurance decision makers as they seek information that can minimize risks. Early lead forecasts are based on model variables before December 1 (Year 0) that predict Atlantic tropical cyclone activity (Year +1). The autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has an 8 to 14 month antecedent correlation with the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO is traditionally the best non-lead and overall predictor of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Analyses were performed over a 30-year period from 1984/85-2013/14, with some time variation depending on the test. Correlation, spatial, and wavelet analyses were utilized to find associations between the IOD, west and east components of the IOD, and four other variables related to the following season's ENSO state and tropical cyclone activity. The prior western pole of the October IOD (WIOD) was demonstrated to have statistically significant r-squared values (i.e. 99% confidence interval) to upcoming tropical storm activity (i.e. explained 25% of the variance), named storm counts (28%), and ENSO (21%). The WIOD has no connection with U.S. hurricane landfalls. Wavelet analysis between October IOD variables and following August-October ENSO data was observed to have the best time-frequency relationship. Dynamic reasoning for these relationships reside within the idealized biennial IOD-ENSO cycle, Walker circulation process, and the impact of ENSO on the state of the Atlantic Basin. The WIOD's integration into early-lead forecast models could be an advantage for those in the reinsurance industry and other decision makers impacted by Atlantic tropical cyclonesn.

Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Activity over the North Indian Ocean written by M. Mohapatra and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-11-24 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals primarily with understanding, monitoring and prediction of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) over the North Indian Ocean (NIO). There is special emphasis on TC genesis, intensification, movement and associated adverse weather like heavy rainfall and gale winds. It highlights the current state of research on TCs over the NIO and recent improvements in early warning systems due to advances in observational, analytical and numerical weather prediction techniques. The chapters in the book are authored by leading experts from research and operational environments.The chapters presented in the book intend to stimulate thinking and hence further research in the field of TCs, especially over the NIO region. They provide high quality reference material for all experts working in the field of TC related disaster management. This book is relevant to TC forecasters and researchers, managers, policy makers, graduate and undergraduate students.

Download or read book Impact of Indo Pacific Oceans on Indian Monsoon and Cyclones written by Shinto Roose and published by . This book was released on 2022-08-30 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tropical oceans are known to have great control on global atmospheric circulation. The tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean stretching from the east coast of Africa to the west coast of America has close coupling with the atmosphere on different timescales. There are two dominant interannual variabilities in the Indo-Pacific oceans. The former is the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) associated with SST variation in the Pacific Ocean . The two opposite phases of ENSO are El Nino and La Nina. During El Nino years, the trade winds weaken and reduce the upwelling of cold water off the coast of Peru, thus create anomalous warming in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. The reverse occurs in La Nina years with strengthened trade winds that store more heat in the western Pacific Ocean. Warming Indo-Pacific Ocean is found to alter the global rainfall patterns . Increased atmospheric heating leads to the expansion of itswater holding capacity, produces more intense precipitation events. Indian summer monsoon rainfall is directly associated with strong cross-equatorial moisture transport to the Indian subcontinent from surrounding oceans . Intensification of the atmospheric moisture transport into the Indian region has ramifications for Indian summer monsoon rainfall (May, 2002). Therefore human-induced global climatic warming can have a significant role in precipitation events around the world. A prominent intraseasonal tropical climate variability called the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) mainly seen over the Indo-Pacific Oceans, characterized by large-scale convective cloud bands has a changed life cycle due to the expansion of Indo-Pacific warm pool. Just as the ENSO in the Pacific, the Indian Ocean has a basin-scale variability in SST and wind named Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The term IOD was coined by Saji et al. (1999). They used an index named Dipole Mode Index (DMI), defined as the difference in SST anomaly between the tropical western Indian Ocean and the tropical south-eastern Indian Ocean. During positive IOD years (Positive DMI), the tropical south-eastern Indian Ocean develops significant cooling, and tropical western Indian Ocean becomes abnormally warm (Fig. 1.3a), which alter the atmospheric circulation pattern in the Indian Ocean region (Fig. 1.3). During the negative IOD years, the locations of the abnormal warmer/cooler ocean temperature pattern and associated circulation pattern reverse.

Download or read book A Cluster Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Trajectories in the South Indian Ocean written by Kevin D. Ash and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The SIOD is known to exert strong influence on precipitation patterns in the SIO region, also through modulation of the SIO subtropical semi-permanent high. Both ENSO and SIOD have likewise been linked to shifts in the austral summer tropical-temperate troughs (TTTs) from the African continent to northeast of Madagascar over the western SIO. The results of the multiple comparison tests in this study suggest that both ENSO and SIOD are significantly associated with TC trajectories. This significant link between SIOD and SIO TCs has not been documented in the known SIO TC literature, and this study proposes TTTs as the physical mechanism responsible for the strong eastward component of TC motion when ENSO is in warm phase and SIOD is in negative phase. When ENSO is in cool phase and SIOD is simultaneously in positive phase, TC trajectories tend to show strong westward movement, remain farther north and do not recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies. This study is important because the findings suggest that anti-phase interactions of ENSO and SIOD frequently associate with anomalous westward or eastward TC trajectories.

Download or read book The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-04-30 with total page 755 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.

Download or read book Sub seasonal to Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-19 with total page 588 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages

Download or read book Observed Climate Variability and Change over the Indian Region written by M. N. Rajeevan and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-11-02 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of the book is to make a comprehensive documentation of the observed variability and change of the regional climate system over the Indian region using the past observed data. The book addresses all the important parameters of regional climate system so that a physically consistent view of the changes of the climate system is documented. The book contains 16 chapters written by the subject experts from different academic and research institutes in India. The book addresses all important components/parameters of the climate system, like rainfall, temperature, humidity, clouds, moisture, sea surface temperature and ocean heat content, sea level, glaciers and snow cover, tropical cyclones and monsoon depressions, extreme rainfall and rainstorms, heat waves and cold waves, meteorological droughts, aerosols, atmospheric aerosols, ozone and trace gases and atmospheric radiative fluxes. One chapter deals with the past monsoon using monsoon proxy data. The last chapter deals with the future climate change projections over the Indian region (rainfall and temperature) made using coupled climate models. Most of the analyses (especially on rainfall, temperature, extreme rainfall, sea surface temperature, meteorological droughts) are based on the data for a longer period of 110 years, 1901–2010. For some other parameters like moisture, clouds, heat waves and cold waves, atmospheric aerosols, ozone and trace gases and radiative fluxes, data of shorter period have been used. The articles documented inter-annual and decadal variability in addition to documenting long term trends of different parameters. The trends have been tested for statistical significance using standard techniques. It is expected that the present book will be an excellent reference material for researchers as well as for policy makers. These results will be useful in interpreting future climate change scenarios over the region being projected using coupled climate models. Further analysis of these results is required for attributing the observed variability and change to natural and anthropogenic activities.

Download or read book Influence of Climate Regime Shift on the Abrupt Change of Tropical Cyclone Activity in Various Genesis Regions written by Chi-Cherng Hong and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this chapter, we reported the effect of basin-scale climate regime shift (CRS) on the abrupt change of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in various genesis basins, including the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. An analysis of regime shift index reveals that the worldwide TC activity experienced four significant abrupt changes during 1960-2014, including (i) an abrupt increase/decrease in the eastern North Pacific (ENP)/western North Pacific (WNP) in the early 1970s, (ii) an abrupt increase in the ENP and WNP in the early 1980s, (iii) an abrupt increase in the North Atlantic and ENP in the middle 1990s, and (iv) an abrupt decrease in the WNP and western South Pacific in the late 1990s. Three of them are identified concurrent with a significant CRS. The possible influence of a CRS on the abrupt change of TC activity in various genesis regions is addressed. We demonstrate that a CRS induced time mean state shift results in a rapid change in the large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic conditions, which substantially contributes to the abrupt change of TC activity in various genesis regions. In addition the CRS, the effect of interdecadal variability, such as the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, on the abrupt change of TC activity was discussed.