Download or read book Nonlinear Relation Between Inflation and Growth Panel Data Analysis written by Anna Miller and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2013-10-24 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2013 in the subject Economics - Economic Cycle and Growth, grade: 64%, University of Nottingham, language: English, abstract: This paper examines the inflation-growth interaction for different country groups with similar national incomes for the period 1970-2011. It could be confirmed that this relation is strictly nonlinear with a threshold level of inflation of 3% for high-income countries and 13% for low-income countries. Although this result is in line with previous empirical studies based on a similar data set, much smaller samples needed to be used to obtain these results. Inflation threshold levels are estimated using the iteration method and different panel-specific techniques. Strongly significant thresholds were yielded only when controlling for country-fixed effects. Policymakers can use the findings for high-income or industrialised countries as a guide for inflation targeting, however more precise analyses for less advanced countries are needed in order to be useful for monetary policy.
Download or read book Nonlinear Relation Between Inflation and Growth Panel Data Analysis written by Anna Miller and published by . This book was released on 2013-11 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2013 in the subject Economics - Economic Cycle and Growth, grade: 64%, University of Nottingham, language: English, abstract: This paper examines the inflation-growth interaction for different country groups with similar national incomes for the period 1970-2011. It could be confirmed that this relation is strictly nonlinear with a threshold level of inflation of 3% for high-income countries and 13% for low-income countries. Although this result is in line with previous empirical studies based on a similar data set, much smaller samples needed to be used to obtain these results. Inflation threshold levels are estimated using the iteration method and different panel-specific techniques. Strongly significant thresholds were yielded only when controlling for country-fixed effects. Policymakers can use the findings for high-income or industrialised countries as a guide for inflation targeting, however more precise analyses for less advanced countries are needed in order to be useful for monetary policy.
Download or read book Non linear Threshold Relationships Between Inflation and Nominal Returns written by Michelle L. Barnes and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Threshold Cointegration and Nonlinear Causality Test Between Inflation Rate and Repo Rate written by Katleho Makatjane and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The current study investigated a cointegration and nonlinear causality relationships between inflation and repo rates of South Africa using the data spanning the period of January 2002 to March 2016. We used a threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) and nonlinear Granger frameworks causality to carry out the analysis. Preliminary analysis of data revealed the expected properties of the data such as nonlinearity, non-stationarity and co-movement of the variables. The two variables confirmed to be moving together in the long-run according to the observed supWald test statistic. Finally, the Diks-Panchenko nonlinear Causality test revealed a strong bidirectional nonlinear causal relationship between repo rate and inflation rate. The results imply that the use of repo rate to target the inflation rate during the target period did not address the financial problem in South Africa. Consequently, the study concluded that repo rate may not be a good measure to use for controlling inflation rates of South Africa.
Download or read book Inflation Threshold and Nonlinearity written by Derwina Morar and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth written by Anna Miller and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2013-10-23 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Essay from the year 2013 in the subject Business economics - Operations Research, grade: 73%, University of Nottingham, language: English, abstract: Up to the 1970s it was mostly observed that inflation does not have a significant effect on growth, or that the effect was even slightly positive (Sarel 1996). However, due to the following decades of high and persistent inflation in many countries1, the available data showed changes in the inflation-growth nexus. It was univocally confirmed that inflation has a negative impact on growth, and macroeconomic policies are aiming to spur growth by keeping inflation at low levels. This having said, intuitively the question arises, how low should the target inflation be? Or, which is the threshold level of inflation between a positive and negative impact on growth? Many authors in the 1990s attempted to solve this question, with fairly divers results. Sarel (1996) analysed a panel of 87 countries over the period 1970 to 1990 using OLS estimation. He finds a structural break at an average annual rate of inflation of 8%. Below this level, inflation has no significant effect on growth, but for inflation levels above 8%, growth is significantly and strongly negatively affected. Gosh and Phillips (1998) find a much lower threshold at 2.5%, and Christoffersen and Doyle (1998), applying Sarel’s methodology on transient countries between 1990-1996, obtain a threshold of 13%. Bruno and Easterly’s (1998) results are somewhat striking. Their analysis is based on a sample of 31 countries that experienced high-inflation episodes over the period 1961-1994, and results in the fact that inflation does not have a significant effect on growth for normal levels, however the relationship becomes negative with high-frequency data and highinflation observations of 40% or higher.Motivated by this variety of results, Khan and Senhadji re-examined this issue in their 2001 paper “Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth”. They contribute to existing work by extending and modifying their analysis compared to previous literature by, first, looking separately on developing and industrialized countries, and second, by applying new econometric methods, which include the non-linear least squares (NLLS) estimation combined with a hybrid function of inflation, where the threshold level is found with conditional least squares. Furthermore, Khan and Senhadji (2001) use the bootstrap method, proposed by Hansen (1999), in order to test for statistical significance of the threshold effect. Accordingly, their results differ in so far from previous work as the threshold...
Download or read book Nonlinearity Between the Shadow Economy and Level of Development written by Dong Frank Wu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-03-01 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper is the first attempt to directly explore the long-run nonlinear relationship between the shadow economy and level of development. Using a dataset of 158 countries over the period from 1996 to 2015, our results reveal a robust U-shaped relationship between the shadow economy size and GDP per capita. Our results imply that the shadow economy tends to increase when economic development surpasses a given threshold or at least does not disappear. Our findings suggest that special attention should be given to the country’s level of development when designing policies to tackle issues related to the shadow economy.
Download or read book Threshold effects of inflation on economic growth in selected African regional economic communities Evidence from a dynamic panel threshold modeling written by Arcade Ndoricimpa and published by Litres. This book was released on 2022-01-29 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of this study is to estimate inflation threshold and examine its impact on the inflation-growth nexus in selected African regional economic communities. While a number of empirical studies exist in this area for developing countries, they bundle up countries from Asia, Africa and Latin America which do not have the same inflation experiences. This study therefore focuses on Africa. However, since African regional groupings themselves have different inflation experiences, non-linearity in the relationship between inflation and growth is explored within each grouping separately. The study uses dynamic panel threshold modeling recently suggested by Kremer et al. (2013) which extends the non-dynamic panel threshold model of Hansen (1999) and the cross-sectional threshold model of Caner and Hansen (2004). The results indicate that the estimated inflation threshold is different across the regional economic communities. Nonlinearity in inflation-growth nexus seems to hold in CEMAC, COMESA and SADC while it is questioned in WAEMU and WAMZ. For CEMAC, COMESA and SADC, the findings indicate that inflation above the threshold is harmful to growth. Some correlations are established in this study but further analysis is needed to suggest a policy.
Download or read book Inflation and Growth written by Stephanie Kremer and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Non linear Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth in the Democratic Republic of the Congo written by Boniface Yemba and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents one of the first empirical studies that employ the regression kink model with an unknown threshold to estimate the turning point in the relationship between inflation and economic growth. To deal with the asymptotic non-normality of the regression function, we use a numerical delta bootstrap method and inference methods in the construction of confidence intervals for the regression function. Our estimated threshold suggests that, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, inflation rates lower than 17.2% would drive economic growth, but any inflation rate beyond that threshold will harm the growth. The Congolese policymakers should be aware of this threshold in the implementation of any inflation-targeting policy instruments or strategies.
Download or read book Non linearity in the Inflation Growth Relationship in Developing Economies written by Deniz Baglan and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book On Nonlinear Effects of Inflation Across Countries written by Chao He and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many emerging market economies have a higher tolerance for inflation than industrialized economies. Recent empirical studies find nonlinear effects of inflation and that the threshold rate is higher for emerging countries. Motivated by the fact that emerging countries have higher business costs, this paper incorporates entrepreneurial occupational choices in a parsimonious monetary model and rationalizes the observed different thresholds rates. The reason is that business costs distort the occupational decisions and affect the inflation-output tradeoff.
Download or read book Estimating The Inflation Growth Nexus A Smooth Transition Model written by Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-03-01 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Motivated by the global inflation episode of 2007-08 and concern that high levels of inflation could undermine growth, this paper uses a panel of 165 countries and data for 1960-2007 to revisit the nexus between inflation and growth. We use a smooth transition model to investigate the speed at which inflation beyond a threshold becomes harmful to growth, an important consideration in the policy response to rising inflation as the world economy recovers. We estimate that for all country groups (except for advanced countries) inflation above a threshold of about 10 percent quickly becomes harmful to growth, suggesting the need for a prompt policy response to inflation at or above the relevant threshold. For the advanced economies, the threshold is much lower. For oil exporting countries, the estimates are less robust, possibly reflecting heterogeneity among oil producers, but the effect of higher inflation for oil producers is found to be stronger.
Download or read book Dollarization Financial Intermediation and Real Activity written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Nonlinearity and Stationarity of Inflation Rates written by Su Zhou and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Few studies have empirically examined the possibility of nonlinearity in inflation and tested nonlinear stationarity of the inflation rates. The present study thus intends to fill the gap. The study examines the hypothesis that, for a group of countries having exercised target-zone type stabilization policies with their inflation eventually converging to similar low levels, their inflation rates would have stationary behavior. When the sample includes periods where inflation control is an alternative objective to other objectives of policymakers and central banks respond to inflation actively only when inflation deviations from the target range become large, non-linearity may exist in inflation. The hypothesis is tested for a sample over the floating exchange rate period for 12 European countries that formed the euro zone later in the sample period. The results suggest that the majority of these countries' inflation rates can be characterized by mean reversion during the sample period. Many of them appear to be nonlinearly stationary. This finding is essential in conducting applied economic studies for these countries, when constructing models whose validity relies on whether or not inflation is stationary.
Download or read book Inflation and Financial Depth written by Mr.Bruce D. Smith and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2001-04-01 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is now a substantial theoretical literature arguing that inflation impedes financial deepening. Furthermore, it has been hypothesized that the relationship is a nonlinear one, in that there is a threshold level of inflation below which inflation has a positive effect on financial depth, but above which the effect turns negative. Using a large cross-country sample, empirical support is found for the existence of such a threshold. The estimates indicate that the threshold level of inflation is generally between 3 and 6 percent a year, depending on the specific measure of financial depth that is used.
Download or read book U S Wage Growth and Nonlinearities written by Luiggi Donayre and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite a low unemployment rate, wage growth in the U.S. was negligible during the 2013-2015 period. Conventional linear models of the relationship between wages and unemployment, the so- called wage Phillips curve (WPC), and previous models of the WPC that rely on regime-switching driven only by changes in unemployment, provide a poor fit in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Meanwhile, standard linear theoretical general equilibrium models are based on an assumption that economic agents take into account nominal wages relative to prices when making labor decisions, suggesting that there is a role for inflation in determining the empirical dynamics of the WPC. We employ a nonlinear empirical model to study how the relationship between U.S. wage growth and unemployment changes over the business cycle. In particular, we estimate a threshold vector autoregression with multiple threshold variables and multiple threshold parameters for each threshold variable for the 1965-2015 period. We find that the WPC changes according to the dynamics of both unemployment and inflation. Specifically, it changes as the unemployment rate transitions above or below the two estimated thresholds, defined by 5.03% and 7.77%. Simultaneously, it also evolves depending on whether inflation is above or below 0.38% relative to trend. The results show a strong negative relationship between wage growth and unemployment during periods of expansion when inflation is above its long-run trend. The relationship weakens, although remains negative, during periods of expansions with low inflation and during mild recessions. Our results indicate that the negligible wage growth observed during 2013-2015 was driven not only by labor market slack, as suggested by previous studies, but also by the low inflation environment.
