Download or read book Inflation Its Dynamics and Its Possible Causes in Albania written by Robert M. Kunst and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Covers the period from 1994 to 1997.

Download or read book The Main Determinants of Inflation in Albania written by Ilker Domaç and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1998 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: June 1998 This study of inflation in Albania yields several conclusions: * Fighting inflation and keeping exports competitive requires cuts in the budget deficit and credit to government. * The strong seasonal inflation can be somewhat ameliorated by improving infrastructure and customs services. * Structural reforms and improved infrastructure should be part of all stabilization programs, because growth reduces inflation. Domac and Elbirt investigate the behavior and determinants of inflation in Albania, using three approaches. They * Decompose inflation into four components: seasonal, cyclical, trend, and random. * Rely on the widely used Granger causality test, using disaggregated data on both the consumer price index (CPI) and key economic variables. * Apply cointegration and error-correction techniques to the process of inflation, using a simple theoretical model. Using the first approach, they conclude that inflation exhibits strong seasonal patterns associated with agriculture seasonality. Peaks and troughs of monetary aggregates correspond to those of inflation, with a two-month lag. The exchange rate also exhibits stable seasonality, reaching its trough in August and tending to depreciate early in the year. The Granger causality test shows M1 (currency in circulation plus demand deposits) and the exchange rate to have predictive content for most items of the CPI. The empirical findings also indicate that credit to government is a good predictor of medical care, transportation, and communication prices. But causality also runs from the prices of bread and cereals, recreation, education, and culture to credit to government, since these items, at least during the period under consideration, are subsidized and contribute to the budget deficit. And causality runs from credit to government to the price of nontradables, highlighting the fact that an increase in the fiscal deficit would undermine Albania's competitiveness by producing appreciation in the real exchange rate. The results of cointegration and error-correction techniques confirm that, in the long run, inflation is positively related to both money supply and the exchange rate, and negatively related to real income. A 1-percent increase in M1, for example, will raise inflation by 0.41 percent; a 1-percent depreciation of the exchange rate will increase inflation by 0.17 percent; whereas a 1-percent increase in real income will reduce inflation by 0.25 percent. Inflation adjusts to its equilibrium value fairly rapidly-25 percent a month. The impact of the exchange rate on inflation occurs a month later, while the impact of real income and money take place two and four months later, respectively. The findings support the conventional elements of a typical stabilization program. Fighting inflation and keeping exports competitive requires reducing both the budget deficit and credit to government. The strong seasonal nature of inflation can be somewhat ameliorated by improving infrastructure and customs services. Structural reforms and improvements in infrastructure should be part of any stabilization program because economic growth is an antidote to inflation. This paper-a joint product of the Albania/Croatia Country Unit, Europe and Central Asia Region, and the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, East Asia and Pacific Region-is part of a larger effort in the Bank to enhance the knowledge on the inflationary process and its practical implications. The authors may be contacted at [email protected] or [email protected].

Download or read book Inflation and Money Demand in Albania written by Mr.Sanja Kalra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-07-01 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper uses a simple analytical framework to estimate relationships between prices, money the exchange rate, and interest rates in Albania during 1993–97. The estimated parsimonious error correction model extends the findings of a growing literature on inflation and money demand in transition economies. The results suggest that, after the one-time effects of the 1997 crisis are taken into account, the long-run determinants of inflation and money demand remained unchanged. Strong financial policies since mid—1997 appear to have helped to restore conditions for low inflation and stable money demand.

Download or read book Inflation Dynamics in the Western Balkans written by Gohar Minasyan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-03-03 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After trailing Euro Area inflation closely in the recent past, inflation in the Western Balkans has accelerated faster since early 2022 on the back of the shocks to global commodity prices, strong recovery from the pandemic, and lingering supply bottlenecks. This paper employs two complementary empirical approaches of an augmented Phillips curve and structural VAR, adapting them to the data availability and country specificities of the Western Balkans, to analyze the inflation dynamics in the region. It finds that international food prices affect not only headline but also core inflation as well as inflation expectations. Further, inflation in the Western Balkans is not just determined by foreign shocks, and domestic factors, aggregate demand shocks in particular, have a significant impact on inflation. These findings imply a possible role for policies to temporarily limit an immediate and complete pass-through of international to domestic food prices while also stressing the importance of an appropriate domestic macroeconomic policy mix to keep inflation expectations anchored and safeguard credibility in the face of high inflation persistence.

Download or read book Inflation Growth and Credit Services written by Max Gillman and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Main Determinants of Inflation in Albania written by Ilker Domac and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study of inflation i ...

Download or read book The Erosion of State Capacity and the European Innovation Policy Dilemma written by Edgar Grande and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Main Determinants of Inflation in Albania written by Domaç and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A Second Look at Legislative Behavior in the European Parliament written by Clifford J. Carrubba and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on the Knowledge Base of Central and Eastern European Countries written by Peter Biegelbauer and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Determinants of Long term Economic Development written by Michael Obersteiner and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Unraveling the Central State But How written by Liesbet Hooghe and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Analysis and Econometric Modelling of the Monetary Sector in the Slovak Republic written by Michal Olexa and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Assessing Conditions for Influence of Interest Groups in the EU written by Irina Michalowitz and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book What is There to Legitimize in the European Union and how Might this be Accomplished written by Philippe C. Schmitter and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Flexibility of Constitutional Design written by Madeleine O. Hosli and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A Small Continuous Time Macro econometric Model of the Czech Republic written by Emil Stavrev and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: