Download or read book Inflation in Tajikistan written by Svetlana Vtyurina and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper attempts to explain short- and long-term dynamics of-and forecast-inflation in Tajikistan using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA). By analyzing different transmission channels through the VECM, we were able to evaluate their relative dominance, magnitude, and speed of transition to the equilibrium price level, with the view of identifying those policy tools that will enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy. We found that excess supply of broad money is inflationary in both the short and long term. The dynamic analysis also demonstrates that the exchange rate and international inflation have a strong impact on local prices. Available monetary instruments, such as the refinancing rate, have proven to be ineffective. Therefore, the Tajik monetary authority could greatly benefit from enhancing its monetary instruments toolkit, including by developing the interest rate channel, to improve its monetary policy execution and to achieve stable inflationary conditions.
Download or read book Tajikistan written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-02-11 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews economic developments in the Republic of Tajikistan during 1994–97. In 1996, the authorities embarked on their first comprehensive effort at economic reform, supported by financial assistance from the World Bank and the IMF. Although implementation was uneven, the authorities were successful in achieving a degree of macroeconomic stability during the first three quarters of 1996; progress was also made on structural reforms. However, confronted with substantial unanticipated expenditures, the budget deficit increased substantially in late 1996 and the first half of 1997.
Download or read book Republic of Tajikistan written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-03-28 with total page 101 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Strong growth continued in 2022 with minimal disruption from the war in Ukraine, while strong financial inflows supported domestic demand and liquidity. Although negative spillovers from the war have not materialized, it remains unclear to what extent Tajikistan will continue to be relatively unaffected by weaker economic activity in Russia.
Download or read book Republic of Tajikistan written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-02-07 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic activity in Tajikistan continues to recover from the global crisis, but a range of vulnerabilities remain. Real GDP grew at an estimated 7.5 percent through the first nine months of 2011. The political environment appears broadly stable, but there are underlying tensions. The worst of the food and fuel price shocks has been weathered without civil unrest, partly owing to measures to ensure supplies, higher remittances, and a general understanding by the population that remedies are limited given resource constraints.
Download or read book Republic of Tajikistan 2019 Article IV Consultation Press Release and Staff Report written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2021-09-03 with total page 81 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reported economic activity has been strong in 2018-19 and inflation has picked up. The monetary framework is being strengthened. The external position has deteriorated. The fiscal deficit has widened as revenues have declined. Reforms to place the loss-making energy sector on a sound financial footing are underway. The authorities’ development strategy relies on large infrastructure projects— Roghun dam and other large SOE-implemented projects — that need sizable external financing. The financial sector is recovering from the 2015-16 crisis, with a decline in nonperforming loans and improved profitability. The authorities are making efforts to strengthen bank supervision and regulation. However, two formerly-systemic banks remain insolvent and further reforms are needed to restore public confidence in banks.
Download or read book Republic of Tajikistan written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-02-17 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses Ex Post Assessment of Longer-Term Program Engagement for the Republic of Tajikistan. The assessment reveals that Tajikistan’s macroeconomic performance during 1998–2005 has been robust, albeit with occasional lapses. Economic growth during this period has far exceeded program projections, but inflation performance has been at times volatile, and often overshot program targets. Macroeconomic stabilization was mainly driven by a strong fiscal consolidation. In contrast, monetary policy has occasionally undermined inflation performance. Initial progress in implementing structural reforms was uneven.
Download or read book Economic Reforms in Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Tajikistan Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-08-31 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This occasional paper provides an overview of the economic reform experiences of the Central Asian states of the former Soviet Union since their independence at the turn of the decade. The choice of countries reflects not only a geographical grouping, but also similarities in the types of transition challenges faced by these countries notwithstanding considerable variations in their sizes, ethnic composition, resource endowments, and economic structures. The paper attempts to identify a number of key macroeconomic and structural areas where the slower reformers in the group might benefit from the experience of the faster reformes.
Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 524 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
Download or read book Republic of Tajikistan written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2005-10-13 with total page 81 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses Tajikistan’s Fifth Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) and Request for Waiver of Performance Criterion. The macroeconomic outcome in the first quarter of 2005 was satisfactory, but the deteriorating external environment will make it harder to achieve some of the program’s original targets. Expenditure delays and strong nontax revenues resulted in a significant fiscal surplus in the first quarter of 2005. The fiscal outlook for the remainder of 2005 looks less favorable owing to lower-than-projected commodity prices.
Download or read book Tajikistan written by Asian Development Bank and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2016-08-01 with total page 155 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Building on robust economic growth since the end of a civil war in 1997, Tajikistan has transformed itself into a service economy driven by consumer spending fueled by strong remittance inflow. Yet the transfer of resources to high value-added sectors has been restrained, and structural change has generated few new jobs. Without sufficient employment opportunities in the services and industrial sectors, agriculture became the fallback for most of the labor force. To continue its economic growth, Tajikistan requires new drivers from a diversified industry sector and a modernized economy through structural transformation and export diversification.
Download or read book Tajikistan Economic and Development Strategy Handbook Volume 1 Strategic Information and Programs written by IBP USA and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2009-03-30 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 2011 Updated Reprint. Updated Annually. Tajikistan Economic & Development Strategy Handbook
Download or read book Tajikistan s Winter Energy Crisis written by Daryl Fields and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2013-07-22 with total page 115 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of Tajikistan’s Winter Energy Crisis is to assist the Government of Tajikistan (GoT) in exploring ways to overcome electricity shortages due to rising demand for electricity. It focuses on investments and policy reforms in order to strengthen the financial, technical, and institutional capacities in the power sector and to prepare the Government for undertaking a major expansion of power supply capacity until the year 2020. The Study explores a range of supply and demand alternatives (e.g., thermal, run-of-river hydro, other renewables, energy efficiency and demand management) excluding the option of large hydropower plants especially those requiring storage capacities, given the complexity and delays in their establishment. The option of a large hydropower project in Tajikistan, such as Rogun, is being explored by the various studies conducted by the Government and has involved a long process of information sharing on the findings of the studies for consensus building among stakeholders including Tajikistan, riparian Governments and their various Civil Society Organizations. Such a process requires the assurance of international quality standards, and incorporation of the concerns of all stakeholders. Without prompt actions, as recommended by the Study to address the causes of Tajikistan’s electricity crisis in the next 4-5 years, the shortages could increase to about 4,500 GWh by 2016 - translating to over a third of winter electricity demand. Following the recommendations of the current Study, the GoT will be on the road to establishing a long term energy security in Tajikistan.
Download or read book Central Bank Autonomy and Inflation and Output Performance in the Baltic States Russia and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union 1995 1997 written by Mr.Tonny Lybek and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-01-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A higher degree of de jure autonomy and accountability of the central banks of the Baltic states, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union appears to be positively correlated with lower average inflation. There also seems to be some positive correlation between greater central bank autonomy and higher average real growth, after the initial period of reforms. Central banks with a higher degree of autonomy and accountability have apparently also reformed their operations more aggressively.
Download or read book Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-03-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the implications of elevated global food prices for inflation in select Central Asian economies - Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The findings suggest that global food inflation has significant short-run effects that build over time. Inflation outcomes simulated under alternative global wheat price assumptions underscore these vulnerabilities, and suggest that sustained administrative measures are unlikely to prove effective. In line with structural economic features, the interest rate channel of monetary policy is found to be limited, arguing for a broad policy strategy to control more expansive inflationary pressures. Looking ahead, measures to enhance supply responses, deepen domestic financial markets, develop adequate social safety nets, and increase central bank independence are warranted.
Download or read book The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
Download or read book Tajikistan s Difficult Development Path written by Martha Brill Olcott and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2012-11-27 with total page 467 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tajikistan teeters on the brink of failure. This mountainous and landlocked country, the poorest in Central Asia, confronts the challenges of good governance and economic survival. These domestic struggles become even more problematic as international forces prepare to withdraw from neighboring Afghanistan, leaving Central Asian countries to ensure regional stability. In Tajikistan's Difficult Development Path, Martha Brill Olcott traces the political, economic, and social change following the country's independence and international efforts to avert state collapse. The Tajik government's commitment to reform has been inconsistent, and substantial foreign assistance provided since the end of the country's civil war has not led to the desired economic and political development. Olcott concludes that the Tajik leadership faces a serious dilemma: fully embrace reform or continue moving toward state failure. Tajikistan's decision will have very real implications for this troubled region.
Download or read book Black Sea and Central Asia Promoting Work and Well Being written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2008-06-11 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book analyses the opportunities and conditions of employment throughout the Black Sea region and Central Asia. It examines how different countries deal with social issues affecting well-being.
